The Robo-Zone Might Make Catcher Protection Extra Helpful Than Ever

How a lot will the ABS problem system harm the flexibility of catchers to border pitches? That query has been bouncing round my mind for fairly some time now. I’d been ready for the offseason to essentially dive into the numbers, and, nicely, we’re right here. It’s the offseason. However now that I’ve dug into all the information I might discover, I believe the complete premise of that query is perhaps flawed. I believed that correcting a few ball-strike calls a recreation would erase a few well-framed pitches. This may little question harm the higher framers greater than it harm the more serious ones, just because they earn extra strikes and would have extra to lose. On the identical time, the lesser framers would have juicier pitches to problem, boosting their numbers a bit. Consequently, the hole between good and dangerous framers would shrink, furthering a development that’s been happening since we first gained the flexibility to quantify the worth of pitch framing. It will nonetheless be beneficial, simply not fairly as beneficial because it was. However I’m not so positive anymore. Let’s begin with the information.

I pulled all the main league framing information I might. I pulled league-wide and particular person catcher referred to as strike charges each inside and out of doors the strike zone for the majors and for Triple-A, which in 2025 used the identical problem system we’ll see in 2026. I can let you know that 26 catchers acquired a major quantity of enjoying time in each Triple-A and the majors final season, and their referred to as strike charge on pitches within the shadow zone within the majors fell by a median of 1.4 share factors inside the zone and 1.7 share factors outdoors it relative to what it was within the minors. So whereas the Triple-A strike zone could also be tighter, pitch framing remains to be more durable within the majors. However the one information about how the problem system has truly labored within the minors and in spring coaching of 2025 comes from MLB press releases, and it’s extraordinarily sparse.

In fact, that information undoubtedly exists. Baseball Savant guru Tom Tango wrote up a bunch of fascinating takeaways from it on his weblog a month in the past. As you’d count on, gamers usually tend to problem calls in higher-leverage moments, within the later innings, and on pitches that resolve the result of an at-bat. For that cause, they are typically much less profitable in these conditions; they’re not difficult as a result of they’re positive they’re proper, however as a result of they really need the decision to go the opposite manner. Tango additionally broke down some catchers and batters who had been notably good or dangerous at difficult. Not solely did he present their stats – poor Zac Veen challenged 24 pitches and acquired simply three overturned – however Tango confirmed that Savant might be rolling out problem likelihood numbers subsequent 12 months, utilizing the gap from the sting of the strike zone to calculate the probability that any specific pitch will get challenged, and that any specific problem might be profitable. From there, it’s simple to calculate how a lot problem worth every batter or catcher creates above the typical participant.

All of these numbers might be actually enjoyable. We’ll be capable of see whether or not catchers who’re good at difficult whereas behind the plate are additionally good at it once they’re within the batter’s field. We’ll see how nicely plate self-discipline and framing worth correlate with making good problem selections. We’ll get to see whether or not sure pitchers or sorts of pitches lead to extra challenges or extra profitable challenges. We’ll be capable of reply our query about the way it impacts framing worth! Proper now, although, there’s not a lot to go on.

Right here’s what we all know to date. Throughout spring coaching, 2.6% of all ball-strike calls had been challenged, 4.4% by the offense and 1.8% by the protection. Eighty % of spring video games noticed 5 or fewer challenges, and 52.2% of challenges had been profitable. Batters had a 50% success charge, whereas catchers had been at 56% and pitchers had been at 41%. These final two numbers mixed for a 54.4% total success charge for the pitching workforce. Except for the numbers for pitchers — which received’t matter a lot, as they’ve confirmed to be so dangerous at difficult that they’re already all however forbidden from doing so within the minors — all of these numbers are fairly near 50%. In 2024, the Triple-A hit charge was 50.6%. The league is understandably motivated to focus on that reality, to advertise the notion that the problem system received’t change the sport all that a lot as a result of every part will stability out. Consequently, we’ve gotten quotes like this one from MLB govt vp of baseball operations Morgan Sword: “In no strike zone that we’ve tried, in no format that we’ve tried, has the speed moved a lot above or beneath 50%, which is fairly fascinating in that these are the subset of pitches which are most ‘controversial’ amongst gamers.”

All the identical, these numbers don’t fairly stability out completely, so let’s see how they might play out in the course of the common season in the event that they held true. In 2025, Triple-A noticed 4.2 challenges per recreation, which might work out to 10,206 whole challenges over a serious league season. Let’s say the chances we noticed throughout spring coaching maintain up precisely. Batters provoke 59.1% of challenges and succeed 50% of the time, whereas defenders provoke 40.9% of challenges and succeed 54.4% of the time. In that case, batters would win 3,015 challenges, in comparison with 2,271 for defenders. That’s a internet consequence of 744 further balls, which works out to roughly 93 further runs. Understand that within the majors, umpires referred to as simply 236 strikes on pitches outdoors the shadow zone all 12 months. Correcting these most egregious misses can be only a small a part of the image. In different phrases, the offense would come out manner forward, and people beneficial properties would largely come on the expense of pitch framers.

I’m not so positive these numbers will maintain, although. As many individuals have famous, the Statcast zone is a bit tighter than the zone precise human umpires name, which might lead us to count on extra referred to as strikes. I’m particularly suspicious that batters will maintain initiating such a excessive share of the challenges. A Reddit person named Avondice posted a few detailed breakdowns of the challenges from the 2025 Triple-A season. I reached out to ask the place they acquired the numbers, and so they stated the information got here straight from MLB’s pitch-by-pitch information. The breakdown confirmed an total success charge of 49.5% — 45.1% for challenges by the offense and 53.5% for the protection. With slightly algebra, we are able to reverse engineer from these numbers that 52.4% of challenges should have come from the protection, whereas 47.6% got here from the offense. If these numbers had been to carry within the majors, then the swing would go towards the protection somewhat than the offense. The web consequence can be 670 further strikes, which interprets to erasing roughly 84 runs.

As soon as once more, I’m undecided how a lot to belief both of those units of numbers. Neither spring coaching or Triple-A is precisely like main league common season play. As I wrote final week, main league umpires are extra correct than minor league umpires, even with out a problem system to wash up a few of their errors. They’ve far fewer huge misses, and with out that low-hanging fruit, common season main league challenges is perhaps considerably much less profitable than we noticed throughout spring coaching (when pitchers are wilder and umpires are much less correct). Nonetheless, my level right here is that even small variations can add as much as a giant quantity. None of those charges is all that removed from 50%, simply as Sword stated, however that doesn’t imply they received’t have a huge impact.

The opposite takeaway is that if we put challenges into their very own class, separate from framing, then sure, the ABS problem system will cut back the vary of framing outcomes. However we might simply as simply think about the problem system a part of framing. It’s nonetheless only a manner of incomes strikes, and I might remind you that framing isn’t nearly stealing strikes on pitches outdoors the zone. Catchers are far more involved with “maintaining strikes strikes.” That’s, ensuring that when their pitcher hits the zone, they’re rewarded with a referred to as strike. The most effective pitch framers within the league earn strikes on practically 90% of shadow zone pitches within the zone, however outdoors the zone, that quantity is down beneath 20%. The problem system will additional reinforce that emphasis, and I’d remind you that in each of the pattern units we broke down, catchers ran a lot greater overturn charges than batters. Even when we sabermetricians break up the leaderboards up into one class for framing and one other for difficult, a catcher who’s nice at each might be extra beneficial than ever! (As for whether or not these two abilities are associated, the tiny quantity of information we’ve got to date is inconclusive. Tango famous that Harry Ford was the worst challenger whereas P.J. Higgins was one of the best. Neither participant appeared like a terrific pitch framer this season.)

We’re solely speaking about just a few overturned calls every recreation, and far of the time they’ll most likely stability one another out; each groups decide up a name or two, the umpires will get yelled at rather less, and all people wins. However that doesn’t imply issues will even out between the offense and protection. If batters find yourself getting extra worth out of the problem system, as they did throughout spring coaching, then catcher protection – the mixture of framing and problem outcomes – might take an actual hit. The gap between elite framers and poor framers might shrink even additional. But when catchers make extra out of the problem system, then those who can mix nice framing with nice problem selections may very well be much more beneficial than ever, even when framing numbers take successful.