FanGraphs Energy Rankings: Offseason 2026 (No. 1–17)

The new range has began to warmth up, however it’s nonetheless fairly early within the offseason. On Tuesday, I took inventory of how the early 2026 projections seen the underside 18 groups in baseball as they’re at the moment constructed. At present, I’ll check out the groups projected to complete with a .500 or higher document in 2026. This train ought to give us a fairly good concept of which golf equipment can be able to compete if the season began right now, and which of them nonetheless have work to do that offseason.

Our energy rankings use a modified Elo ranking system. For those who’re conversant in chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports activities part, you’ll know that Elo is a chic rating format that measures groups’ relative energy and could be very reactive to current efficiency. For these offseason rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections and calculated an implied Elo rating for every group. Proper now, our Depth Charts projections are powered fully by the 2026 Steamer projections; the 2026 ZiPS projections can be folded in later within the offseason.

First up are the rankings, offered in a sortable desk. Under that, I’ve grouped the groups into tiers, with feedback on every membership. You’ll discover that the official ordinal rankings don’t all the time match the tiers — there are occasions once I take editorial liberties in grouping groups collectively — however usually, the order is constant. The delta column within the desk beneath reveals the change in rating from the ultimate common season run of the facility rankings. The rankings for groups 18–30 have been up to date with the handful of strikes that occurred round baseball since Half I used to be revealed.

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Baseball hadn’t seen a repeat champion for the reason that Yankees gained three in a row from 1998–2000. With their second consecutive World Sequence title secured, the Dodgers are actually in place to increase their dynasty — and the projections see them being in a powerful place to aim a three-peat. Nonetheless, as a few of their struggles confirmed this 12 months, successful one other championship in 2026 gained’t be straightforward. Accidents took a toll on the group all year long, and Mookie Betts limped via the worst season of his profession, however the abundance of expertise on this roster finally gained out within the playoffs. There are holes to fill — the outfield and bullpen are in dire want of consideration — however the projections rightly see the Dodgers as essentially the most gifted group in baseball heading into subsequent season even with out making any additions.

Each of the groups on this tier suffered via vastly disappointing seasons, however the projections see brighter days forward. It’s not onerous to see why the Braves are so extremely ranked. Their roster remains to be comparatively younger and full of expertise, and their points in 2025 had extra to do with accidents than extreme underperformance. Fortunately, not one of the accidents that derailed the group this season had been vital sufficient to have an effect on their 2026 projections. Ronald Acuña Jr. appears wholesome after and as harmful as ever, however the group wants bounce-back seasons from Spencer Strider, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris II to actually show they belong on this tier. The Braves addressed a few of their smaller wants this week, re-signing Raisel Iglesias and swinging a commerce for utilityman Mauricio Dubón, however it’s unclear whether or not they’ll be content material with Dubón at shortstop they usually may stand to shore up their rotation depth.

It took a fully atrocious ultimate two months of the season for the Mets to overlook out on the playoffs. The presence of Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor helps to offer a excessive flooring, however there’s work to be accomplished to keep away from repeating the frustration of 2025. It ought to start with the pitching employees. Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and Brandon Sproat every supplied some pleasure down the stretch, however I doubt the group can plan on counting on that younger trio for a full slate of 30 begins subsequent 12 months. David Peterson and Clay Holmes each regarded like strong mid-rotation starters, however the group desperately wants a frontline ace to steer the employees. Additionally on the listing of priorities is determining whether or not it’s worthwhile to re-sign Pete Alonso or Edwin Díaz, because the departure of these stars in free company opened up gaping holes at first base and within the bullpen.

The Mariners bought their offseason buying began early, re-signing Josh Naylor to a five-year deal on Sunday. That checks off one in all their largest priorities this winter. They might nonetheless use a minimum of another huge bat on the infield — both at second or third base — and a minimum of a few sturdy arms to bolster the bullpen. The true motive they’re so extremely ranked is as a result of they nonetheless have Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez anchoring the lineup, and the beginning pitching appears sturdy regardless of the hiccups they suffered via this 12 months. The Mariners must also have a handful of prime prospects pushing to make their debuts in 2026, led by Colt Emerson. Following the deepest run within the playoffs in franchise historical past, the Mariners are effectively positioned to maintain their success into the longer term.

With the group’s basis resting on Aaron Choose’s shoulders, it’s no shock to see the Yankees this excessive within the rankings. The rotation additionally appears prefer it’ll be a energy, with Max Fried main the group, Gerrit Cole anticipated to return from Tommy John someday throughout the season, and younger phenom Cam Schlittler in line for a full season. However even with the reigning AL MVP, the lineup will not be with out its points. Trent Grisham accepting his qualifying provide on Tuesday probably offers New York its reply in middle area, however there’s nonetheless a serious gap within the outfield with Cody Bellinger departing in free company. And Anthony Volpe’s disappointing season and offseason shoulder surgical procedure makes shortstop an open query.

After buying and selling Rafael Devers in June, the Purple Sox are formally within the Roman Anthony period, they usually took the Yankees to the brink of elimination within the Wild Card spherical even with their star outfielder on the IL. The projections suppose the group is effectively positioned to compete in a tricky AL East in 2026, although they nonetheless have work to do that winter. Alex Bregman opted out of the free agent deal he signed final offseason, which opens up a big gap at third or first base, relying on how the group feels concerning the futures of Marcelo Mayer and Triston Casas. There’s additionally a necessity for a frontline starter to pair with Garrett Crochet. Commerce rumors are swirling round Jarren Duran, and whereas I don’t suppose the Sox will transfer on from him, it does look like they’ve one too many outfielders on their roster. As issues at the moment stand, Gold Glove middle fielder Ceddanne Rafaela is lined as much as play out of place at second base with Duran overlaying middle.

With Brandon Woodruff accepting his qualifying provide on Tuesday, the Brewers may need put themselves in an ungainly place. Woodruff’s $22.025 million wage in 2026 can be a franchise document, and it’d imply they’re extra probably to commerce Freddy Peralta, although group officers have mentioned they see retaining Woodruff and doubtlessly buying and selling Peralta as unbiased choices. In the event that they choose to hold on to Peralta, the beginning rotation appears like it is going to be a energy subsequent 12 months, with hopefully full seasons from each Woodruff and Jacob Misiorowski. Fortunately, almost the complete place participant group from this season is returning subsequent 12 months, although it will be good so as to add some energy to the lineup.

Will Detroit determine to commerce Tarik Skubal for an enormous haul of prospects this offseason, or try to run it again with the perfect pitcher in baseball in 2026? That’s the central query for the Tigers, and all the pieces they do that winter can be filtered via that lens. One of many secondary considerations was addressed on Tuesday when Gleyber Torres accepted his qualifying provide. Meaning the complete lineup from this season ought to carry over to subsequent 12 months. That’s each a superb factor and a foul factor: It was a strong sufficient group this 12 months, rating twelfth within the majors by wRC+, however there additionally aren’t a number of high-ceiling stars within the lineup, which most likely means we’ve already seen their run scoring ceiling. And with none holes to fill, it may very well be tough to improve the lineup with out bumping a strong function participant to the bench.

Contemporary off a heartbreaking World Sequence loss, the Blue Jays are effectively positioned to defend their AL East division crown. We’ll see if postseason heroes Ernie Clement, Addison Barger, and Nathan Lukes can carry over their October success into sustained manufacturing in 2026, however the greater questions lie at shortstop, the place there’s a Bo Bichette-sized gap to fill, and within the rotation. Trey Yesavage was a revelation within the playoffs, however you’d need to anticipate the group to deal with him very rigorously subsequent 12 months. Shane Bieber opted to train his participant choice, which supplies the Jays one other frontline starter behind Kevin Gausman and Yesavage, however they may use one other couple of arms to offer some depth for his or her pitching employees.

This looks like a critically necessary offseason for the Phillies. Not solely are they making an attempt to re-sign Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto, they’re additionally trying to overhaul their outfield and fill a spot or two of their beginning rotation. The evolution of Cristopher Sánchez into among the best pitchers in baseball gives the group with one other ace whereas Zack Wheeler makes an attempt to return from thoracic outlet syndrome. Bryce Harper and Trea Turner ought to proceed to anchor the lineup, regardless of the bizarre commerce rumors surrounding the primary baseman. Nonetheless, the rosy projections given to the Braves and Mets imply Philadelphia can be onerous pressed to catch as much as its division rivals this offseason.

The Royals have a surprisingly sturdy rotation that’s a minimum of eight or 9 arms deep. In fact, that assumes that Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic are wholesome subsequent 12 months; each present the excessive ceiling that might carry Kansas Metropolis to the highest of the AL Central. What this group desperately wants is a purposeful outfield; that group was the weakest within the majors by a large margin this 12 months. Perhaps Jac Caglianone will determine issues out in 2026, however that may nonetheless depart two positions on the grass in want of an improve. The outfield free agent class isn’t very deep, so it wouldn’t be stunning to see the Royals deal from their rotation to deal with their largest gap.

The Twins slotting in right here might be the most important shock of those rankings. They tore down an enormous a part of their roster over the summer time and fired supervisor Rocco Baldelli on the finish of the season. Regardless of that step again, the projections suppose Minnesota did effectively to hold on to a variety of key contributors who ought to proceed to function a strong core. That features Joe Ryan and Pablo López within the rotation, and Byron Buxton within the lineup. There’s additionally a trio of younger place gamers who may make an impression as quickly as 2026. Luke Keaschall already confirmed what he was able to within the huge leagues this 12 months, and he may very well be joined by Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez subsequent 12 months. Assuming the group doesn’t deal away Ryan, López, or Buxton this offseason, the Twins may very well be poised for a surprisingly fast rebound.

The Rangers are in a difficult place this offseason. That they had 9 pitchers from their American League-best pitching employees depart in free company, and their two finest starters are within the again half of their 30s. Jack Leiter managed to determine issues out this 12 months, however rebuilding the pitching employees would require quite a lot of strikes. The offense calls for some consideration this offseason as effectively. The 2023 championship group led the AL in run scoring and wRC+, however Texas has been effectively beneath common ever since. The group will most likely want to begin fascinated with the way it’s going to shift away from the growing older trio of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Adolis García, and in direction of a youthful core. Prime prospect Sebastian Walcott might be a few years away from making an actual impression, which suggests 2026 is shaping as much as be extra of a transition 12 months in Arlington.

Regardless of Kyle Tucker departing in free company, the Cubs’ offense remains to be projected to be reasonably sturdy in 2026. Would re-signing Tucker or one other huge bat assist? In fact, however it looks like this offseason goes to be targeted on upgrading the pitching employees. The group surprisingly declined its three-year choice for Shota Imanaga, although he circled and accepted the qualifying provide anyway after declining his participant choice. It’s a win-win for the participant and group; Imanaga will get a elevate in 2026 and the Cubs keep away from having to decide to the left-hander long-term after an up-and-down season in 2025. However even with Imanaga again within the fold, a wholesome Justin Steele returning someday subsequent 12 months, and a full season from rookie sensation Cade Horton, the Cubs want so as to add one other starter or two to actually be ok with their rotation subsequent 12 months.

The Orioles’ largest concern throughout this window of competition has been their lack of high-end beginning pitching. It was a shock, then, to see Baltimore commerce Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels for Taylor Ward on Tuesday. Rodriguez has proven flashes of ace upside, however his harm historical past is prolonged and there’s no assure he’ll have the ability to keep wholesome and supply high-quality innings in 2026. As such, you possibly can kind of squint and perceive why Baltimore opted for the regular manufacturing of Ward within the outfield. For his half, Ward ought to be a strong improve for the lineup, although he’s set to hit free company after subsequent 12 months. Meaning 2026 is kind of a make-or-break season for the O’s, with frontline beginning pitching nonetheless their most urgent want. Oh, they usually’ll additionally want to determine assist Jackson Holliday take a step ahead, decide if Adley Rutschman can bounce again after two down seasons, and combine prime prospect Samuel Basallo into the large league lineup.

The Rays have already addressed two huge off-field considerations: The sale of the group was accomplished a number of months in the past, and Tropicana Discipline ought to be prepared for play in 2026. With these issues taken care of, the group can deal with addressing a number of the main holes on the roster. It was good to Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda escape this 12 months, however the group nonetheless had a below-average offense in 2025. Shortstop and the outfield look like essentially the most obvious points. The roster churn is already below method, as Tampa Bay made a handful of minor trades and designated outfielders Christopher Morel and Jake Fraley for project this week. On the pitching aspect, the group is hopeful that Shane McClanahan will have the ability to take the mound for the primary time since 2023.

This 12 months marked the tip of an period in Houston, because the Astros missed the playoffs for the primary time since 2016. In so some ways, this roster feels prefer it’s in the course of an enormous transition. Framber Valdez is gone, leaving Hunter Brown to steer a shallow rotation full of harm considerations. Changing Valdez and including one other starter or two must be a prime precedence for the Astros this offseason. The lineup is a bit more settled, however there are nonetheless loads of considerations there, too. With Carlos Correa again within the fold at third base and Christian Walker manning first, the place does Isaac Paredes match? Will Walker bounce again after a tough first season in Houston? Can Yordan Alvarez keep wholesome? Have we seen the primary glimpses of Jose Altuve’s decline? With a lot uncertainty surrounding the group, their potential win distribution feels wider than every other group trying to contend subsequent 12 months.