2026 ZiPS Projections: Texas Rangers

For the twenty second consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra info on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this 12 months’s introduction, in addition to MLB’s glossary entry. The staff order is chosen by lot, and the following staff up is the Texas Rangers.

Batters

Ending the season with an precisely .500 report appears a becoming destiny for the 2025 Texas Rangers, a staff that spent many of the 12 months leaping into and out of the playoff race, till their demise was finally sealed by an eight-game dropping streak in September. The oldest staff in baseball this 12 months, the Rangers acquired loads of manufacturing out of their core performers, however a pitching swoon in August and September, and holes on the offense-heavy positions, left the staff wanting its purpose of getting again to the playoffs and grabbing a second World Collection trophy. That 2023 championship marketing campaign is the one season within the final 9 during which Texas completed with a profitable report.

At first look, the lineup nonetheless seems very playoff-worthy, although it’s stocked with extra contributors over the age of 30 than one would possibly like. Corey Seager spent his regular time on the IL, first with a nagging hamstring damage that put him on the shelf twice, and later with an emergency appendectomy. However he additionally performed at his regular celebrity degree, so anybody who means that shortstop was a weak spot is sporting pants which are on hearth. Marcus Semien is clearly previous his peak, however he performed sufficient like himself through the season to finish up with respectable ultimate numbers, although they paled in comparison with his regular efforts. ZiPS thinks Semien will bounce again a bit in 2026, however twilight is approaching.

ZiPS has appreciated Wyatt Langford from the second it ran a projection for him, so seeing him on the prime of the ranks is hardly shocking. And it’s excellent news for the Rangers if correct, on condition that Langford is in his mid-20s fairly than on the downslope of his profession. Jonah Heim and Kyle Higashioka are getting up there in years, however the catching scenario is okay for now, and Josh Jung managed to kind of keep wholesome in 2025, although he was demoted to Spherical Rock for a reset in July. Josh Smith would in all probability be stretched taking part in at a main defensive place full-time, however he’s round as a extremely helpful, practically all-purpose Plan B.

Adolis García’s offensive decline continued, maybe unsurprising given his age; as a result of he didn’t get his first prolonged shot within the majors till his age-28 season, he’ll be 33 subsequent Opening Day. ZiPS expects a greater season from a wholesome Jake Burger, however he stays a fairly one-dimensional participant who’s finest thought of a stopgap till the Rangers have a greater thought at first base. Like Steamer, ZiPS thinks Joc Pederson nonetheless has some life left in his bat; we might but stay to see one other Joctober.

Whereas I believe the Rangers needs to be trying into choices at first base and in proper area, I’m undecided both is essentially a precedence given a few of the issues we’ll see within the subsequent part.

Pitchers

Jacob deGrom dialed again his fastball a few notches in 2025, and whereas correlation isn’t essentially causation, he had his first wholesome season since 2020, with the Rangers rightly delighted to get 172 2/3 innings out of him. The projections knock him down a tick right here, as at 37, he’s lastly on the level the place pitchers are more likely to expertise substantial age-related decline fairly than merely break, and ZiPS, for apparent causes, isn’t going all-in on how wholesome it expects him to be. Nonetheless, his outlook is loads higher than it was a 12 months in the past, and I believe he’s now handed the Koufax threshold on my eventual Corridor of Fame poll.

Nathan Eovaldi was arguably having one of the best season of his profession by way of the tip of Could, and was within the early Cy Younger dialog, however an elbow damage and a rotator cuff damage minimize his season brief, and he had offseason sports activities hernia surgical procedure. He’s additionally getting up there in years, so ZiPS is being pretty conservative together with his projection.

ZiPS is on the level the place it’s assured that Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker are good mid-rotation choices, however as eventual deGrom/Eovaldi successors, not a lot. Jacob Latz was fairly profitable as each a starter and reliever in 2025, however ZiPS thinks his 2.84 ERA, and even his 3.89 FIP, is just a little forward of the place he’ll possible be subsequent 12 months; he ought to in all probability be seen as extra of a flexible fourth starter than the rest.

The large fear right here is that ZiPS sees the rotation depth as fairly weak after the assumed starters, an particularly regarding difficulty given what number of have long-term damage questions. This might be an appropriate place for the Rangers to spend some money.

As for the bullpen, let’s simply say that I’m hoping my laptop crashes whereas I’m typing out this paragraph. Greater than another staff in baseball, ZiPS sees the bullpen because the distinction between the Rangers being a first-tier Wild Card contender and a fringe one. The highest 4 Rangers relievers in WAR, Shawn Armstrong, Hoby Milner, Phil Maton, and Chris Martin, are all free brokers, and few bullpens are going to look nice if you chop off the highest 4 guys. Robert Garcia returns, however after him, all I can say is that I’m fairly certain that every one of those gamers truly bodily exist and that ZiPS didn’t by chance interface with my fictional participant identify generator. The pc principally thinks everybody after Garcia is someplace round substitute degree — or worse — and Texas isn’t precisely overequipped with beginning pitchers who can be utilized as lights-out relievers. Until the projections are very incorrect, the Rangers are in all probability one of many groups that needs to be keen to overpay to rebuild their bullpen this winter. It’s essential to get essentially the most out of their growing older core.

If the Rangers play issues extraordinarily conservatively this winter and go together with this roster, they seem like they’ll land someplace round .500, maybe a skosh higher, with some actual draw back as a result of age and damage threat. But it surely wouldn’t require an enormous offseason to get this staff to a high-80s win whole and a return to October baseball.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by means of these listed right here. Dimension of participant names could be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart taking part in time. The ultimate staff projections might differ significantly from our Depth Chart taking part in time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever potential. This contains gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2026 as a result of damage, and gamers who had been launched in 2025. So sure, should you see Joe Schmoe, who stop baseball again in August to kind a Ambient Math-Rock Journey-Hop Yacht Metallic band that solely performs in deserted malls, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values would possibly differ barely from people who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody in opposition to — and would possibly karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to provide projected staff WAR. It is very important do not forget that ZiPS is agnostic about taking part in time, and has no details about, for instance, how shortly a staff will name up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As all the time, incorrect projections are both brought on by misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our buddy and former editor. You possibly can, nonetheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky. This final is, nonetheless, not an precise requirement.