November is meant to be a sleepy time of the offseason, with qualifying presents and 40-man roster shenanigans the details of curiosity. This 12 months has had just a few enjoyable surprises, although. First, Josh Naylor returned to the Mariners on a five-year deal, a shock much less by way of vacation spot than timing – these kinds of contracts usually wait till December. Now, we’ve got a bona fide problem commerce: The Orioles are sending Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels in change for Taylor Ward.
Rodriguez, one of many prime pitching prospects in baseball just a few years in the past, can be one of many hardest gamers within the majors to guage. The potential is there. He has a number of putaway secondaries, a full of life fastball he can command to a number of components of the zone, and he’s athletic sufficient that his command has trended upwards from fringe to common, with the form of trajectory that makes you count on extra to return. If you happen to’re on the lookout for an ace, you’re most likely on the lookout for somebody whose expertise roughly appear like this.
Alternatively, unavailability is the worst capacity, to twist the drained previous saying ever so barely. Rodriguez has struggled to remain on the sector in his time within the majors, and that’s placing it frivolously. He missed a superb chunk of 2022, his final minor league season, with a lat pressure. He then missed half of 2024 with two totally different shoulder accidents, whereas one other lat pressure and bone spurs in his elbow price him everything of the 2025 season. At this level, three of his final 4 seasons have been severely curtailed by main accidents, together with recurring shoulder issues.
That signifies that plenty of this commerce hinges on medical imaging that we are able to’t see, and doubtless wouldn’t give you the chance learn even when we might. It’s not controversial to say that Rodriguez has the instruments to be among the finest pitchers in baseball when wholesome; he has stable main league numbers and wonderful peripherals, and it’s clear from watching him that there’s room for extra development. However the quantity facet of the speed occasions quantity worth proposition is certainly terrifying. Will Rodriguez pitch a full complement of innings in 2026? Assuredly not. Will he be ramped up by 2027? That appears extra doubtless, however it’s laborious to depend on it given current historical past.
From Baltimore’s perspective, that posed a serious downside. The O’s have two starters locked in on the prime of the rotation, Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish, however the remaining is up within the air. Dean Kremer led the workforce in innings pitched in 2025, however his profession 4.35 FIP And 4.26 ERA don’t give me plenty of confidence. Put all of it collectively, and the workforce’s prime precedence this offseason can be including a number of reliable starters to elongate the rotation.
As tantalizing as Rodriguez’s promise is, he doesn’t match into that puzzle. Even when he doesn’t have any harm setbacks, he’ll certainly be on a good innings restrict subsequent 12 months. He would possibly even be a superb candidate for a minimum of a brief transfer to the bullpen. Additionally, “no harm setbacks” is a dicey assumption contemplating his historical past. In different phrases, Baltimore wanted extra starters and couldn’t depend on Rodriguez to cowl lots of these innings.
Why commerce him for an outfielder, then? Baltimore’s outfield scenario is as unsettled as its rotation. No present Orioles outfielder posted even 1.0 WAR in 2025. Certain, possibly Colton Cowser and Tyler O’Neill would have in the event that they hadn’t handled accidents. Possibly Dylan Beavers would have with extra enjoying time, or Heston Kjerstad would have with… okay, no, he was fairly unhealthy on the market. The purpose is that they couldn’t actually get away with exiting the offseason with out a significant outfield addition.
Enter Ward, who rebounded from a sluggish begin to his profession to show right into a dependable energy bat. This was a superb season for him – he batted .228/.317/.475, good for a 117 wRC+ and a pair of.9 WAR in 157 video games. In that approach, it was like plenty of his current seasons. He has a 118 wRC+ since he lastly discovered his footing within the majors in 2021. He takes walks, strikes out greater than you’d want, and hits plenty of homers. He’s even right-handed, which can serve the Orioles nicely given their complement of lefty sluggers.
In different phrases, Ward seems loads just like the form of free agent Baltimore would go after to repair their outfield. They tried the same signing final winter, the truth is, however O’Neill, a righty slugger with energy, didn’t test the provision field. Ward, then again, is sort of sturdy. He’s solely hit the IL as soon as prior to now three years, and that was as a result of he obtained hit within the face with a pitch and wanted reconstructive surgical procedure. For a workforce that has a ton of transferring components and loads of uncertainty, stability is essential, and Ward offers simply that. Wouldn’t it be superb if he might play middle subject? It positive would, provided that Cowser is probably going higher fitted to a nook and Leody Taveras is nothing greater than a depth possibility. However whereas it’s not an ideal answer, it’s a reasonably good one, and sacrificing a little bit of outfield protection in change for offense appears like an affordable tradeoff to me.
There’s one obvious downside with my evaluation to date, although. Ward, who’s about to show 32, will attain free company after the 2026 season. Rodriguez, 26, has 4 years of workforce management remaining. You don’t want analytical marketing consultant Depend Von Depend to know that 4 is larger than one, ah hah hah. Even when we low cost Rodriguez’s future projections closely due to uncertainty, he’s a superb wager to supply extra combination worth than Ward in his workforce management years.
Why would the Orioles, of all groups, make this commerce? They’re the workforce that guards their prospects as a substitute of swapping them for leases, the workforce that tries to select up years of workforce management and future worth of their trades wherever potential. It’s out of character for them to commerce considered one of their younger gamers in any respect, not to mention transfer one when that participant’s worth is at a low ebb. However I feel it’s a cash concern, principally, and I sympathize with the scenario they discover themselves in.
Mike Elias didn’t mince phrases when he laid out his offseason plans. “My said aim is to see if we are able to add anyone that matches into that tier,” Elias stated about including one of many prime beginning pitchers in the marketplace. “That might be Plan A for our rotation.” He additionally added that he wished to land an skilled nearer and a veteran hitter. Lastly, he implied that the Orioles would spend as much as their 2025 payroll, however maybe no more. Per RosterResource, that offers the O’s about $65 million to attain their objectives.
However $65 million ain’t what it was once. One prime starter and one mid-rotation starter will most likely run you about $45 million in 2026, with loads of future commitments too. And closers aren’t low-cost; even when Elias is planning on signing a reclamation mission like Devin Williams or Ryan Helsley, they’ll command eight-figure salaries in a weak marketplace for elite arms. A hitter of Ward’s caliber? There aren’t many choices, and none of them mission to be nearly as good as Ward for as little as he’s making – he made $7.8 million final 12 months and is heading into his remaining 12 months of arbitration.
Might the Orioles execute some form of bargain-bin model of that plan with out buying and selling for anybody? Possibly, however I don’t suppose it will do something good for his or her probabilities in 2026. When you must add as a lot pitching as they do, half measures don’t reduce it. And in the event that they went all out on the pitching entrance and didn’t add any outfielders, their offense would have a obvious gap, which isn’t optimum in what tasks because the hardest division in baseball.
Some groups would possibly attempt to repair this downside by buying and selling from their farm system. That’s simply not the Oriole approach, although. They wish to deal from depth relatively than commerce prime prospects, and prospect depth most likely gained’t get you a full 12 months of a plus hitter in the mean time. On the commerce deadline, that form of return is likely to be simpler to return by, however two thirds of the season transpires earlier than the commerce deadline. Sitting in your palms till late July isn’t an affordable response to the state of the O’s roster.
Thus, I perceive why Baltimore made this commerce, and I additionally suppose that it’s fairly clear they “misplaced” it within the sense of giving up extra surplus worth than they’re getting again. That does an ideal job of explaining the Angels facet of the deal, by the way: They obtained extra worth than they’re giving up, so why wouldn’t they are saying sure?
Certain, Rodriguez is a thriller field, however the Angels want thriller containers. If all of their gamers hit their projections precisely, they gained’t be superb. They want variance, sudden upside, guys who might pan out much better than their median expectations. That’s just about a precise description of Rodriguez. I feel He’s extra more likely to be out of baseball in three years than Ward, simply due to the inherent attrition concerned with arm accidents, however he’s additionally a lot extra more likely to compete for main {hardware}.
Ultimately, I feel I like this commerce for each groups, although I do suppose that it’s a symptom of the Orioles’ earlier habits that they discovered themselves on this place. Years of inaction and bargain-hunting within the outfield and beginning rotation left them in a spot the place they needed to act decisively. Years of enjoying for the longer term imply that now, they must sacrifice anticipated worth to bolster the current. It’s humorous to me that the Orioles are the workforce making the win-now transfer, whereas the Angels construct for the longer term, however that doesn’t change the truth that that is the form of deal that contenders and rebuilders usually make. I’d take the Los Angeles facet of this one for alternative, however I feel that Baltimore was roughly compelled into it, and whereas this particular person commerce is likely to be a web loss in the long term, making the workforce higher proper now’s essential sufficient that I feel it was sensible to overpay.