FanGraphs Energy Rankings: Offseason 2026 (No. 18–30)

We’re presently within the lull between the tip of the World Collection and the true begin of sizzling range season. Groups are nearly completed with the annual housekeeping vital to arrange their rosters for the winter — the 40-man deadline is later at this time, whereas the non-tender deadline is Friday — however Josh Naylor apart, the massive free agent strikes are nonetheless on the horizon. Meaning it’s the right time to take inventory of how every crew measures up. The rankings under signify every crew as it’s presently constructed, primarily based on our Depth Charts enjoying time projections. That ought to give us a reasonably good thought of which golf equipment can be able to compete if the season began at this time, and which of them nonetheless have work to do that offseason. In the present day I’ll cowl the groups projected to complete underneath .500 in 2026, with these forecast for a .500 or higher report to comply with later this week.

Our energy rankings use a modified Elo ranking system. In case you’re conversant in chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports activities part, you’ll know that Elo is a sublime rating format that measures groups’ relative power and could be very reactive to current efficiency. For these offseason rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections and calculated an implied Elo rating for every crew. Proper now, our Depth Charts projections are powered totally by the 2026 Steamer projections; the 2026 ZiPS projections will likely be folded in later within the offseason.

First up are the rankings, introduced in a sortable desk. Under that, I’ve grouped the groups into tiers, with feedback on every membership. You’ll discover that the official ordinal rankings don’t at all times match the tiers — there are occasions after I take editorial liberties in grouping groups collectively — however usually, the order is constant. The delta column within the desk under reveals the change in rating from the ultimate common season run of the facility rankings.

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The Giants already made one of the crucial fascinating strikes of the offseason once they employed former Tennessee head coach Tony Vitello to be their area supervisor. There’s positive to be an adjustment interval as Vitello makes the leap from faculty ball to the massive leagues, however his success will largely hinge on the expertise Buster Posey brings in to fill out the roster. Buying and selling for Rafael Devers this spring compelled San Francisco right into a win-now place and not using a strong basis already in place. There’s some high-end expertise on the crew already, however there are additionally holes within the outfield, at second base, and all throughout the pitching employees. In the event that they wish to escape of the cycle of mediocrity they’ve been caught prior to now 4 years, the Giants might want to make some huge strikes and hope that prime prospects like Bryce Eldridge can begin contributing straight away.

What a distinction a 12 months makes. This time final 12 months, the Diamondbacks seemed like a crew on the rise. They may have missed the 2024 playoffs by a single recreation and didn’t recapture the magic of their 2023 run to the World Collection, however they gained 89 video games and appeared like they had been able to take a giant step ahead. Sadly, their huge offseason signing, Corbin Burnes, received injured, the remainder of their rotation took a giant step backward, and so they wound up promoting off a bunch of free-agents-to-be on the commerce deadline. The excellent news is that Geraldo Perdomo loved a large breakout this 12 months, and Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte had been among the many finest gamers in baseball at their respective positions. That trio provides the D-backs lineup a strong basis. The issue is that the beginning rotation is in shambles following the harm to Burnes, the commerce of Merrill Kelly in July, and the lack of Zac Gallen to free company. A 12 months after handing Burnes a $210 million contract, beginning pitching is as soon as once more a vital precedence.

In fact, the Diamondbacks aren’t the one NL West crew in want of rotation upgrades this offseason. Padres standouts Dylan Stop and Michael King are free brokers, and Yu Darvish will miss all of 2026 following elbow surgical procedure. Nick Pivetta was improbable in his first 12 months in San Diego, and Joe Musgrove ought to return from his personal elbow surgical procedure someday subsequent 12 months, however the remainder of the rotation is one big query mark. Issues are so dire that they’ve even mentioned shifting Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon from the bullpen to the rotation. Both change would go away the reduction corps fairly skinny, however that’s much less of a priority at this level. The lineup is in significantly better form, although it might be a good suggestion to discover a energy bat to man first base or designated hitter. To make every little thing extra difficult, the Seidler household introduced final week that they had been exploring promoting the franchise. It’s nonetheless unclear how that potential transition will have an effect on baseball operations, although sources indicated to the San Diego Union-Tribune that it is going to be “enterprise as regular” this offseason. That stated, the possession combat final offseason undoubtedly affected the entrance workplace’s capability to spend, which leads me to imagine they’ll face the identical challenges this winter.

Subsequent season will likely be a giant transition 12 months for the Cardinals. Chaim Bloom was put in as the brand new president of baseball operations on the finish of the common season, and now he can get to work shaping the roster how he sees match. The projections don’t see an incredible crew but, however there are definitely gamers to construct round right here. Masyn Winn and Iván Herrera have already confirmed they will produce within the huge leagues, and I think about JJ Wetherholt can have a chance to debut subsequent 12 months. The most important query is what to do with veterans Nolan Arenado and Sonny Grey. Neither will likely be a part of the following nice Cardinals crew, so Bloom should do what John Mozeliak couldn’t: Discover a commerce companion to tackle these huge contracts. Brendan Donovan has been talked about in a bunch of commerce rumors — transferring him may assist create room for Wetherholt on the key league roster — although buying and selling away Arenado may serve the identical perform, with Donovan sliding over to 3rd base.

Paul Skenes gained the primary of what needs to be many Cy Younger awards final week, however the Pirates lineup isn’t near with the ability to help the crew’s younger and proficient pitching employees. Rome wasn’t in-built a day and Pittsburgh’s offense gained’t be in-built one offseason; issues are dire on the massive league roster. The Pirates didn’t have a certified batter with a wRC+ over 100 in 2025, and so they had simply two when you decrease the plate look threshold to 300. Meaning there are loads of holes to plug, although the short ascent of Konnor Griffin by means of the minor leagues this 12 months may imply a giant league debut sooner moderately than later. Nonetheless, Griffin can’t repair the lineup on his personal, so the crew might want to put money into discovering hitters who can no less than present a league-average batting line.

The Athletics have nearly the precise reverse drawback because the Pirates. Nick Kurtz’s historic rookie season confirmed he can anchor the lineup, whereas the break outs of Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, and Jacob Wilson ought to give the A’s a strong younger supporting forged going ahead. However the pitching employees is one other matter totally. The hitter-friendly ballpark in West Sacramento was a major problem for the crew; the A’s allowed practically a full run extra per recreation at house than they did on the highway. Even when they discover a solution to improve their pitching employees, it nonetheless looks as if the crew should outslug their opponents in 2026 to have any shot at success.

The Marlins really had a little bit of momentum heading into the offseason. From September 10 by means of the tip of the season, that they had the very best report within the Nationwide League at 13-4, and wound up bettering on their 2024 win whole by 17 video games. The projections see them as a 79-win crew, twenty fourth within the majors proper now, and that’s with no free brokers leaving holes on the roster. You’ll be able to have a look at that actuality in certainly one of two methods: Both the muse that’s in place isn’t projected to be that good regardless of the robust end to the season, or there’s loads of room for progress with out having to backfill a bunch of positions. Hopefully the pitching employees enjoys significantly better well being in 2026, although it’s an open query whether or not Miami will commerce away Sandy Alcantara. Their ace bounced again with a powerful second half and may very well be an attractive commerce chip if the crew needs to infuse its roster with further younger expertise.

The ultimate two groups on this tier made shocking postseason appearances in 2025, although the projections view a return to the playoffs subsequent 12 months as a protracted shot. The Guardians’ unimaginable run to say the AL Central division title offered some improbable drama down the stretch, however their roster was fairly flawed regardless of the late-season sizzling streak; the crew outperformed their pythagorean report by eight wins and their BaseRuns report by 11, with the 2026 projections keying in on that underlying efficiency. Nonetheless, there may be some trigger for hope within the type of a trio of younger hitters — Travis Bazzana, George Valera, and Chase DeLauter — that might make a big effect subsequent 12 months and assist buoy a company nonetheless reeling from the Emmanuel Clase/Luis L. Ortiz playing scandal.

The Reds didn’t end the season with the identical type of momentum the Guardians did, as an alternative profiting from a stumbling Mets crew to say the ultimate NL Wild Card spot. The pitching seems prefer it’s in fine condition. The beginning rotation was the third finest in baseball this 12 months, and there are just a few extra prime pitching prospects who appear like they’re shut to creating an influence within the huge leagues. The issue is the event of Cincinnati’s younger place gamers. Simply two batters crossed the 1.5-WAR threshold in 2025, and guys like Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Gavin Lux, and Noelvi Marte have settled in as merely average-ish regulars moderately than core items of the Reds’ lineup. Worryingly, nobody in that quartet is projected to build up greater than 1.5 WAR in 2026. It is perhaps time to chop bait on a few of them, and attempt to discover some influence hitters outdoors the group.

The Angels have been caught in impartial for the final decade. Their final successful season got here in 2015 and their final playoff look was in 2014. Shortsighted spending, largely underwhelming drafts, and poor participant growth have undermined any capability to construct a sustainable winner. Possession refuses to tear every little thing down and in addition gained’t make investments the required sources to repair the obtrusive points on the roster. There’s maybe no higher instance of those sorts of half measures than the one-year deal Kurt Suzuki signed to be the Angels’ supervisor in 2026. As an alternative of committing to a long-term chief for the clubhouse, the crew put in somebody who’s already a lame duck and will likely be combating for his job all through the season. Jo Adell’s 2025 breakout was good to see and Zach Neto seems like a key constructing block for the crew’s future, however Mike Trout’s star energy seems to have totally waned at this level in his profession. There’s a ton of labor to be completed to get this group again on monitor, and it’s going to take greater than a single offseason.

The Nationals moved on from Mike Rizzo in July and employed Paul Toboni to take over as president of baseball operations, marking a brand new route for the franchise. Toboni now faces the troublesome process of modernizing and reimagining the group’s priorities and growth practices. One of many first huge choices he’ll need to sort out is what to do with MacKenzie Gore; the left-hander has two years of crew management remaining and will carry again an enormous haul of prospects if the Nats had been to make him accessible this offseason. In fact, Toboni’s job will likely be made slightly simpler due to the one factor the Nats have that the opposite groups on this tier don’t: a burgeoning famous person in James Wooden. If the crew can create an setting the place Wooden is ready to thrive, he and a supporting forged that features CJ Abrams, Dylan Crews, and Daylen Lile may brief circuit the present rebuilding cycle by just a few years.

Over the ultimate three months of the common season, the White Sox had a greater report than three different American League groups, and their run scoring was smack dab in the course of the league. That may not seem to be all that a lot to have a good time, nevertheless it represents a major step ahead for the ballclub. Colson Montgomery and Kyle Teel had encouraging debuts this summer season, and there’s a gaggle of prime prospects who may make an influence within the huge leagues in 2026. It’s nonetheless going to take quite a bit to construct one other contender on the South Facet, however the first core items of Chicago’s subsequent nice roster are starting to fall into place.

Below regular circumstances, you would possibly credit score the Rockies for making an unconventional rent to steer their baseball operations division. For a company that’s notoriously insular, including somebody from outdoors of proprietor Dick Monfort’s interior circle needs to be seen as a constructive step ahead. Besides they went thus far afield, they wound up hiring Paul DePodesta. The exact same Paul DePodesta who lower his tooth in baseball with the Moneyball A’s across the flip of the century, and who has been out of the sport for a decade whereas serving because the Cleveland Browns’ chief technique officer. Even when you put aside a number of the questionable strikes the Browns made throughout his tenure (together with what’s broadly considered the worst transaction in NFL historical past), baseball has superior a lot since DePodesta final labored in a entrance workplace that he’ll most likely spend his first 12 months enjoying some quantity of catchup. In fact, the rationale this entrance workplace drama is grabbing headlines is as a result of the on-field product is completely atrocious. The projections peg the Rockies as being near a 100-loss crew as presently constituted, and keep in mind that’s the fiftieth percentile projection. These projections ought to enhance barely as DePodesta begins to scrub up this roster, however the crew is climbing out of an extremely deep gap.