2026 ZiPS Projections: Pittsburgh Pirates

For the twenty second consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra info on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this yr’s introduction, in addition to MLB’s glossary entry. The group order is chosen by lot, and the subsequent group up is the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Batters

From a pure expertise standpoint, the Pittsburgh Pirates are in higher form than their 71-91 document this season would possibly counsel. Nonetheless, the group at all times feels prefer it’s on an enormous treadmill as a result of when the time to extend the extent of funding comes, the push is at all times extraordinarily underwhelming. The Pirates have really gotten barely higher at committing to payroll (barely!), however after they do spend, they often accomplish that in slightly unproductive methods.

The development of the offense offers a great instance. One space the place the group really has some depth is in viable position gamers and marginal starters. And but, when the pockets lastly will get pried open (once more, barely!), slightly than go after the sort of huge rating that’s been arduous for them to develop themselves, they have an inclination to unfold that cash round to… viable position gamers and marginal starters. Spending almost $17 million on Andrew McCutchen, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Tommy Pham wouldn’t break the financial institution of a standard group, however while you’re the Pirates, with a pre-benefits payroll underneath $90 million, that’s a big chunk of your finances that didn’t do a lot to make the group higher in 2025 or at any level sooner or later. McCutchen was a tremendous participant at his greatest and remains to be a fan favourite, however he’s already gotten what quantities to a three-year retirement tour in Pittsburgh. If the group can’t consider one thing extra productive to do with these at-bats, that’s a failure of creativeness.

Oneil Cruz’s 2025 season was a curious one, in that he did higher than he ever has at shedding unhealthy pitches, and completely crushed the ball usually, however bought objectively worse outcomes. It’s a must to not less than surprise if the sudden full-time conversion to the outfield took away among the consideration that may have been higher spent specializing in changing into a extra well-rounded hitter. I stay removed from satisfied that there was an emergency that required him to maneuver off of shortstop earlier than Konnor Griffin arrives, or that the swap to Kiner-Falefa did something of worth. ZiPS really thinks that Cruz will probably be fantastic in middle discipline since pace is so necessary there, however there’s an actual cut up between the 2025 Statcast (+4 runs) and SIS (-14 runs) numbers. I nonetheless suppose there’s a 40-homer hitter hiding someplace in Cruz, but it surely’s getting slightly late within the day for the Pirates to find him.

Because the group has good position participant depth, they aren’t projected to be actually terrible wherever besides designated hitter. With some well being, and a few creativity mixing and matching the varied spare elements on the weaker positions, this may very well be a midway ample lineup. ZiPS is completely RAM-over-chipset in love with Griffin, and the faster he shoves his approach by means of the excessive minors, the higher the Pirates will probably be. Nonetheless, when you get previous him and Cruz, it’s loads of guys who may be fantastic however aren’t true breakout candidates.

Pitchers

Nicely having Paul Skenes on the prime of the rotation certain is a pleasant solution to begin issues off! After all the query is simply how lengthy it’s earlier than Skenes is shipped off to a group extra taken with paying him, and common supervisor Ben Cherington saying that he “goes to be a Pirate in 2026” is somewhat worrisome for its specificity. In spite of everything, Skenes can’t hit free company till after the 2029 season, and saying that he’ll be on the group “in 2026” doesn’t preclude a commerce deadline mega-deal. There’s actually nothing in Skenes’ profile to fret about aside from the conventional fretting over doable damage, which is the case for each pitcher previous, current or future — not less than till we work out a solution to give pitchers ligaments bio-engineered to be stronger. The Corridor of Fame comps proceed previous the primary three under; everybody who pitches like Skenes is a Corridor of Fame expertise.

Mitch Keller is a strong no. 2 starter and Bubba Chandler is projected to construct on his 2025 debut; if the Pirates are lucky with accidents, they’ll be an affordable complement to Skenes on the prime. Elsewhere, extra innings from Braxton Ashcraft is an effective factor, not less than within the ZiPS view, and Jared Jones is ostensibly coming back from inside brace surgical procedure on his proper elbow pretty early within the season. Guys like Mike Burrows, Johan Oviedo, and Hunter Barco all get very respectable, if unexciting, projections. General, the rotation is a Wild Card-worthy group.

Maintaining with the “respectable, if unexciting” theme, we come to the Pittsburgh bullpen. There isn’t an entire lot of loopy upside right here, however ZiPS does see the Pirates as having 4 pitchers with ERAs within the 3.00s in reduction: Dennis Santana, Carmen Mlodzinski, Justin Lawrence, and Dauri Moreta. Now, most of those guys mission within the excessive 3.00s, however the reduction corps isn’t a catastrophe. An entire slew of different reduction choices mission higher than a 4.50 ERA, and whereas that’s not a really praiseworthy line to attract, not less than the video games will finish earlier than they get too ugly. If this group does get right into a Wild Card scenario over the subsequent yr or two, they could want to herald exterior bullpen assist, however contemplating how tight their budgets are, it’s comprehensible that the entrance workplace hasn’t achieved so simply but.

With none main disasters, the Pirates may creep into the low 80s wins-wise, however I count on a high-70s end that provides six or seven wins to their 2025 complete to be the almost definitely final result.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by means of these listed right here. Dimension of participant names could be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart taking part in time. The ultimate group projections might differ significantly from our Depth Chart taking part in time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever doable. This contains gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2026 resulting from damage, and gamers who have been launched in 2025. So sure, for those who see Joe Schmoe, who give up baseball again in August to type a Ambient Math-Rock Journey-Hop Yacht Steel band that solely performs in deserted malls, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values would possibly differ barely from people who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody towards — and would possibly karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to supply projected group WAR. It is very important keep in mind that ZiPS is agnostic about taking part in time, and has no details about, for instance, how shortly a group will name up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As at all times, incorrect projections are both brought on by misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our buddy and former editor. You’ll be able to, nonetheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky. This final is, nonetheless, not an precise requirement.