Josh Naylor Reunites With Seattle on a 5-12 months Deal

Technically, the beginning gun for the 2025-26 offseason already fired. Again on November 5, Leody Taveras signed a one-year, $2.1 million contract with the Orioles, although you’d be forgiven for lacking that information, seeing because it got here simply days after a transcendent World Sequence and didn’t even benefit a writeup on this august web site. So allow us to take into account November 16 the official first day of the offseason. On Sunday night, Jeff Passan reported that first baseman Josh Naylor and the Seattle Mariners had been “finalizing” a five-year deal. The monetary phrases haven’t but been reported; in estimating Naylor’s contract for our annual Prime 50 Free Agent rating (he checked in at no. 11), Ben Clemens anticipated a four-year, $100 million deal, whereas the median crowdsource projection was 4 years and $80 million.

The primary actual transfer of the offseason, fittingly, is maybe its most predictable. From the day their season ended, the Mariners’ entrance workplace shared its need to deliver Naylor again to the Pacific Northwest.

“It was an amazing match and it’s positively a precedence for us this offseason — if not one, I don’t know what else can be, he’s no. 1 proper now,” Mariners normal supervisor Justin Hollander instructed MLB Community Radio on the primary day that free brokers had been allowed to signal with different groups. “I don’t actually see a cause, there’s no benefit to hiding the ball, to telling individuals, ‘It was simply wonderful.’ It wasn’t simply wonderful. It was superior. It was an amazing match for the 2 months, and we’d prefer to make it final quite a bit longer.”

That’s fairly unambiguous, and the clear match for either side, in addition to the mutual good emotions between participant and workforce, led most analysts to mission Naylor’s return. Three out of 4 MLB Commerce Rumors writers predicted Naylor would signal with Seattle, whereas Passan picked Naylor because the Mariners’ “good transaction” in his Monday column.

It’s not obscure the workforce’s need for a steady resolution at first base. Previous to the 2024 and 2025 commerce deadlines, the Mariners’ manufacturing from the place was subpar sufficient to benefit buying a rental to cowl the final two months of the season, with Naylor introduced this 12 months and Justin Turner the 12 months earlier than. Certainly, other than two and half good years from Ty France, Seattle has cycled via man after man at first base for the higher a part of a decade. (Adam Lind! Ryon Healy! Danny Valencia! Donovan Solano! Rowdy Tellez!) And robust inside options weren’t on supply; the Mariners dealt their greatest first base prospect (Tyler Locklear) to the Diamondbacks within the July Eugenio Suárez deal, so in the event that they stayed throughout the group, the workforce would’ve been banking on Luke Raley to cowl the majority of plate appearances on the place.

And who higher than Naylor, who put collectively a magical run after arriving in Seattle from Arizona. He put up a 137 wRC+ in his 54 common season video games with the Mariners and supplemented that batting line with one of many wildest baserunning sizzling streaks in current reminiscence, swiping 19 luggage regardless of his third-percentile dash velocity. He by some means leveled up within the playoffs, delivering a .967 OPS and numerous clutch hits when main components of the lineup had been in any other case flailing.

That is FanGraphs, nevertheless it have to be mentioned that the intangible parts of Naylor’s presence on the membership virtually actually performed a component within the entrance workplace’s enthusiastic need for a reunion. When requested on Saturday who he’d deem MVP of the clubhouse, Cal Raleigh named Naylor. The erstwhile Diamondback performed (and cheered on the workforce) with an intense, palpable power, and appeared to type shut private connections with most of the workforce’s core gamers, together with Tucker, the Mariners’ clubhouse canine.

Whereas Naylor’s reference to Tucker is heartwarming, it in all probability wasn’t adequate to benefit what appears prone to be a nine-figure deal. Helpfully, the signing additionally manages to make good baseball sense. Between Raleigh, Randy Arozarena, and (till this season) Julio Rodríguez, the offensive core of the membership encompasses a wholesome quantity of swing-and-miss. Naylor’s high-contact method lends steadiness to a lineup that has suffered via spells of being overly reliant on the lengthy ball. Since he began incomes common enjoying time in 2022, Naylor’s 15.1% strikeout price ranks among the many stingiest in baseball; his 13.7% Ok price in 2025 sat within the 91st percentile. And in contrast to most different low strikeout hitters, Naylor can launch a tank each every so often. Whereas it’s arduous to see him matching his 31-homer peak from 2024, there’s sufficient pop within the bat to spice up his remoted slugging to respectable ranges, rounding out his offensive sport:

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has, in his now decade-plus tenure on the helm of the franchise, stayed away from profitable offers without spending a dime agent hitters. Mitch Garver’s two-year, $24 million contract was the richest he’d given to a hitter since he landed in Seattle. (That didn’t go so nice.) However one might see why it’s simpler to get behind a five-year deal for a man like Naylor. He gained’t flip 29 till subsequent June, which means nearly all of the contract will unfold inside his relative bodily prime. (As current analysis by former FanGraphs contributor Justin Choi reveals, bat velocity tends to start out its sleek decline round a hitter’s age-32 marketing campaign, although extra on that in a minute.)

Whereas Mariners followers, the entrance workplace, and presumably Naylor himself all seem enthusiastic in regards to the reunion, the deal just isn’t with out its potential downsides. Usually, gamers receiving five-year offers are nearer to the star finish of the spectrum than Naylor, whose 3.1 WAR final season was a profession excessive. Steamer initiatives him for two.4 WAR in 2026; ZIPS is a little more optimistic, forecasting 3 WAR and a .784 OPS:

One might maybe add {that a} man of Naylor’s physique just isn’t essentially the one you’d wish to guess on to age essentially the most gracefully, although it does seem he’s slimmed down since his days in Cleveland. And it’s arduous to see a world the place Naylor pops a six-win season; in all chance, he’s fairly nicely locked into the “above-average common” tier of participant with a low likelihood of garnering MVP votes.

One other potential component of concern is Naylor’s bat velocity decline. His common swing velocity went from 72.9 mph in 2024 to 70.9 mph in 2025, the most important drop-off of any certified hitter. As Jay Jaffe argued in October, nonetheless, that drop could have been a part of an intentional “energy for contact” tradeoff on Naylor’s half; these slower swings helped him enhance his squared-up price by almost 4 proportion factors and his batting common from .243 to .295.

In the end, “above-average common” is what the Mariners are paying and hoping for from this signing. By way of star-level hitters, they’re well-covered: Rodríguez and Raleigh are two of the perfect within the sport, and Arozarena — the bizarre form of his manufacturing apart — slots in nicely as a 3rd banana.

With Cole Younger able to assume a daily huge league function, Colt Emerson ready within the wings, and J.P. Crawford on the ultimate 12 months of his deal, the Mariners aren’t prone to signal a center infielder. And with roughly $35 million to spend on free brokers this winter, and the third base job the one clear place nonetheless in want of an improve on the offensive facet of the ball, the workforce was at all times prone to spend some money for a primary baseman. So long as Naylor can maintain down the chilly nook whereas delivering his yearly 120 wRC+ and performing like a benevolent maniac for the following three years or so, the Mariners will likely be glad clients.