2026 ZiPS Projections: The Athletics

For the twenty second consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra info on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this yr’s introduction, in addition to MLB’s glossary entry. The crew order is chosen by lot, and the following crew up is the Athletics.

Batters

The A’s lineup has made nice strides over the previous couple of years, the distinction between this graphic and the one from two years in the past is almost night time and day. Now, there is no such thing as a megastar on the prime of the WAR stack, however the A’s are fairly stable in most locations, aren’t actually abysmal anyplace, and have first rate depth choices all around the diamond. Whereas that is nonetheless removed from an elite run creation machine, there’s sufficient high quality surrounding Nick Kurtz and Brent Rooker that that is the kind of lineup that may pull its weight in a playoff rivalry state of affairs. Even a number of the lesser positions just like the Max Muncy-led third base amalgamation or the mix-and-match assortment in heart area no less than mission to someplace round common.

If there’s a disappointment within the projections, it is likely to be Jacob Wilson, for whom ZiPS sees fairly a little bit of regression coming in 2026. An enormous a part of it’s that Wilson’s method of wonderful contact/delicate hitting has a reasonably poor developmental historical past in current many years, and gamers of this sort, in the event that they develop into too “see ball, hit ball” can fall off rapidly like David Fletcher or Luis Arraez. Identical to plate self-discipline ought to be a method to an finish, so ought to ultra-high contact.

ZiPS additionally stays a Tyler Soderstrom skeptic and simply isn’t as in love with Lawrence Butler as different projection programs have been.

Once I speak in regards to the depth, I’m not simply being good; there are a whole lot of projections for gamers within the excessive minors that recommend that they may very well be fill-in candidates with out fully embarrassing anyone. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer is likely to be one of the vital fascinating. He’s hardly a family title, however the methodology I exploit to estimate protection from hit-location information completely loves him, and he has the makings of a extremely stable pairing with Wilson up the center. The projections additionally assume that Leo De Vries is only a yr or two from being a reputable main league starter. Additionally in excellent news for a lineup on a John Fisher-owned crew, not one of the key gamers are nearing massive free company paydays that the A’s merely wouldn’t match. These guys ought to be round for some time.

Pitchers

The pitching workers is significantly much less spectacular than the offense, however even this group has significantly better projections total than it did a yr in the past. Earlier than this previous season, I mused that the A’s had form of misplaced their knack for creating an countless stream of reasonably competent, soft-tossing fourth starters, and it was hurting their probabilities at getting out of the underside of the AL West. There are nonetheless no aces on the crew or, actually, any no. 2 starters, however ZiPS thinks the A’s now have a boatload of 90-100 ERA+ beginning pitchers, and some of them (like Luis Medina and Luis Morales) have precise fastballs that they’ll use to retire main league hitters. What an idea!

I’m undecided that Luis Severino will nonetheless be on the roster three months from now, not to mention the start of August, given his emotions in regards to the stadium state of affairs and potential worth for a contending membership, however Jeffrey Springs and Jacob Lopez are acceptable mid-rotation starters, and the crew has various helpful fallback choices, akin to J.T. Ginn and Henry Baez. ZiPS nonetheless holds out some hope on Mitch Spence, and is absolutely in on Gage Bounce, who has a good shot within the projections to be the very best A’s pitcher 18 months from now.

A Mason Miller-less bullpen is unquestionably an emoji unhappy face. Whereas ZiPS sees the pen as a decidedly below-average group, there are far fewer damaging WAR projections right here than there have been final offseason, and the highest 4 of Hogan Harris, Michael Kelly, Justin Sterner, and Elvis Alvarado tasks out as…fantastic…ish. However the bullpen shall be a bigger fear when the crew will get nearer to rivalry.

So, the place do the A’s look to be proper now? Most likely barely higher than the 76 wins they completed with in 2025. However an terrible lot must go proper with the pitching to make this crew something however the fringiest of untamed card contenders in 2026. I imply, certain, the A’s may signal Dylan Stop and/or Ranger Suárez, however everyone knows they’re not truly going to do this. On the brilliant aspect, no less than these A’s are most likely going to be Sacramento’s finest main league baseball crew ever.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by the use of these listed right here. Dimension of participant names could be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart enjoying time. The ultimate crew projections could differ significantly from our Depth Chart enjoying time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever doable. This contains gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2026 as a consequence of damage, and gamers who have been launched in 2025. So sure, should you see Joe Schmoe, who give up baseball again in August to kind a Ambient Math-Rock Journey-Hop Yacht Metallic band that solely performs in deserted malls, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values may differ barely from people who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody in opposition to — and may karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to provide projected crew WAR. It is very important do not forget that ZiPS is agnostic about enjoying time, and has no details about, for instance, how rapidly a crew will name up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As at all times, incorrect projections are both brought on by misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our buddy and former editor. You possibly can, nevertheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on Bluesky. This final is, nevertheless, not an precise requirement.