2026 ZiPS Projections: Philadelphia Phillies

For the twenty second consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra data on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this 12 months’s introduction, in addition to MLB’s glossary entry. The crew order is chosen by lot, and the primary crew up is the Philadelphia Phillies.

Batters

The Phillies offense stored proper on rolling for one more season, as soon as once more scoring practically 800 runs, and ending with a wRC+ of 109, the crew’s greatest whole throughout this period. As anticipated, Philadelphia’s rotation was terrific, however the offense contributed greater than its justifiable share to the crew’s 96 wins, the second most in baseball.

There are worries lurking on the horizon, nonetheless. Trea Turner had what was definitely his greatest season in Philadelphia, however he’s coming into his mid-30s, a really harmful time for a center infielder. I used to be really shocked to see the drop-off within the ZiPS projection for Turner, however seen that Steamer was principally projecting the identical factor. Additionally coming into his mid-30s is Bryce Harper, who has solidified his possibilities of a plaque in Cooperstown, however seems to now be off his peak years. Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto are free brokers, and I feel each stand an actual likelihood of returning to Philadelphia, although each are additionally coming into the seemingly decline phases of their careers; certainly, Realmuto in all probability already has.

That doesn’t imply the Phillies are doomed in the event that they’re content material to only put the band again collectively, however realistically, they’re going to want quite a lot of work across the edges. ZiPS is decently optimistic about what Justin Crawford might do in a full season, however the projections would love to see a extra convincing reply in left subject and a much better state of affairs in proper. The rotation implies that the crew doesn’t must have an all-world offense to make the playoffs and even win the NL East, in fact.

Outdoors of Crawford and Aidan Miller, ZiPS is completely unimpressed with the in-house choices arising within the subsequent 12 months or two. If the Phillies can deliver again their veterans or suitably change them, and cope with proper subject, this could possibly be an excellent offense once more, although in all probability one with a ceiling slightly below the sport’s elites.

Pitchers

The Phillies rotation was anticipated to dominate in 2025, and that’s simply what it did. Even with a catastrophe of a 12 months from Aaron Nola and the late-season lack of Zack Wheeler to thoracic outlet syndrome, the starters principally lapped the remainder of the league, ending with a greater than 5-WAR edge over the subsequent greatest crew, the Cincinnati Reds. However that doesn’t imply there aren’t some severe considerations going ahead. Wheeler’s thoracic outlet syndrome isn’t the kind that ended Stephen Strasburg’s profession, and the crew is, by all accounts, at the very least cautiously optimistic about his restoration. However you continue to have to think about him riskier than you’ll have this time final 12 months. ZiPS initiatives considerably of a bounce-back for Nola, however that’s not a assure, and Ranger Suárez is a free agent.

On the plus aspect, Cristopher Sánchez is signed by means of 2030 (with membership choices) and principally simply stuffed a breakout season on high of his first breakout season, whereas Jesús Luzardo has made good on his potential from again when he was an elite Oakland A’s prospect. However ZiPS nonetheless isn’t fairly positive what to consider Andrew Painter, and is sadly fairly positive what to think about Taijuan Walker. A bit extra depth right here is likely to be useful, although the Phillies in all probability don’t must go loopy given their different wants.

Talking of, I absolutely anticipate Philadelphia so as to add just a few reduction arms this offseason. It’s one of many simpler issues to learn from the projections: ZiPS loves the entrance 5 of Jhoan Duran, José Alvarado, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, and Tanner Banks, however then… the void beckons. Nonetheless, it received’t take a ton of labor to make this an elite bullpen.

As that is the primary ZiPS writeup of the offseason, any crew projection right here is extra “the place the Phillies at the moment are” than “the place the Phillies will probably be in April 2026.” If the Phillies simply rolled with everybody they at present have beneath contract, they’d in all probability land someplace between 82-87 wins and be in competition for a Wild Card. I’d be completely shocked in the event that they didn’t do so much higher than that, although, and anticipate that they’ll once more enter the season with a win projection someplace within the low 90s. I feel the Phils will probably be a very good crew in 2026, however they’re in all probability beginning to run in need of possibilities to win the World Sequence with their present core.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by means of these listed right here. Measurement of participant names may be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart enjoying time. The ultimate crew projections could differ significantly from our Depth Chart enjoying time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever potential. This contains gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2026 because of damage, and gamers who had been launched in 2025. So sure, for those who see Joe Schmoe, who give up baseball again in August to type a Ambient Math-Rock Journey-Hop Yacht Metallic band that solely performs in deserted malls, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values would possibly differ barely from those who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody in opposition to — and would possibly karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to supply projected crew WAR. It is very important do not forget that ZiPS is agnostic about enjoying time, and has no details about, for instance, how shortly a crew will name up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As all the time, incorrect projections are both attributable to misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our pal and former editor. You’ll be able to, nonetheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky. This final is, nonetheless, not an precise requirement.