I like a sophisticated contract. I like any excuse to make use of the phrase byzantine actually, so as soon as we’re into stair-step incentive clauses, cascading conditional extensions, and the finer factors of Main League Baseball’s collective bargaining settlement, I’m having essentially the most convoluted sort of enjoyable conceivable. At this time, I’m going to take you step-by-step by the complicated world of Shota Imanaga’s present contract state of affairs. As you doubtless know, the Cubs supplied him a qualifying supply on Thursday. All we’re going to do right here is break down as merely as we will how he bought to that time and what it means. We’re not going to depart something out. To be clear, Imanaga’s contract state of affairs isn’t wherever close to essentially the most complicated one, besides, it’s dizzying. We’re going to lose ourselves within the minutia. For enjoyable.
I additionally love the logistics. I like following a series of what occurs when and why so exactly you can’t assist however be overwhelmed by the absurdity of the state of affairs. And even earlier than you dive in, free agent contracts are inherently absurd. They’re iron-clad agreements negotiated inside the framework of an already-negotiated-to-within-an-inch-of-its-life CBA. They’re insured, and lately their conditionality has exploded to the purpose the place they comprise as many branches as a choose-your-own-adventure novel. However ultimately, they only boil all the way down to determining how a lot anyone’s going to receives a commission at their job. They only occur to be agreements about how a lot essentially the most obscenely rich folks in your complete world are going to pay people who find themselves about to turn into generationally rich. Virtually nobody concerned will ever have to fret about cash for the remainder of their lives. The individuals who really want the frilly safeguards within the CBA and uniform participant contracts are those who don’t make tens of millions of {dollars}. However that is nonetheless a job; a high-pressure, high-stakes job negotiated between bitter rivals, and one facet has a historical past of economic malfeasance that dates again to the nineteenth century. After all, attorneys must be concerned. Every part must be spelled out, and my goodness is it spelled out.
The main points within the CBA are there for superb causes, however they’re mind-bogglingly particular. The title on the PDF calls it the fundamental settlement, and like several primary doc, it’s 426 pages lengthy. I simply scrolled to a random web page within the center, and the subject at hand was who precisely will get photocopies of group monetary paperwork in order that the gamers can decide whether or not the homeowners are literally following the principles of the fundamental settlement. We’re 209 pages in, and we’re nonetheless speaking in regards to the logistics of the doc itself.
One part stipulates what occurs if a participant will get referred to as up for the Nationwide Guard. One other explains that every one visiting clubhouses should comprise a hydroculator. The final web page is a full-page desk that establishes an agreed-upon determine for a way lengthy it takes to fly from each metropolis within the league to each different metropolis within the league. Did you may have a blast watching the swing-off that determined this yr’s All-Star Recreation? Nicely, its format was codified within the CBA, which brings to the thoughts’s eye two groups of attorneys, red-eyed, ties loosed and collars mangled, monologuing 12 Indignant Males-style in a convention room strewn with stale donuts and half-empty espresso cups about whether or not every participant actually wants limitless pitches for his or her three swings when 10 pitches ought to actually be sufficient to cowl it.
Right here’s a good-faith supply: I’ll personally bake a batch of cookies and mail them to the primary FanGraphs reader who reaches out to me with some form of honest-to-goodness proof that they’ve learn your complete CBA. (Cookie number of your selecting, however please bear in mind that my macaron recreation is rusty.)
So let’s get into this one contract. How onerous might or not it’s?
We’ll be counting on Cot’s Baseball Contracts for the main points. When Imanaga came to visit from the Yokohama DeNa Baystars of NPB in January 2024, he signed a four-year cope with a restricted no-trade clause. Sounds easy sufficient, however that’s simply the conference for reporting contracts, primarily based on what number of years the participant might get in the event that they did every little thing of their energy to stay round. Solely the primary two years had been assured to occur, with two or three doable years added on by choices that we’ll get to later. Additionally, Imanaga got here by the posting system, which meant the Cubs paid his previous membership, Yokohama, a $9.825 million posting price. Then he bought a $1 million signing bonus. So let’s begin there. The precise annual salaries had been staggered. The Cubs agreed to pay $9 million for the 2024 season and $13 million for the 2025 season. That’s the easy half.
The escalator clauses come subsequent. If Imanaga had gained the Rookie of the 12 months in 2024, the Cubs would have added $250,000 to his 2025 contract. Cy Younger Award escalators had the identical construction, however they saved going. If Imanaga gained a Cy Younger at any level through the size of the contract, then his wage in all future seasons (together with any possibility years) would enhance by $1 million. If he completed second or third, it might enhance by half 1,000,000. If he completed within the high 10, then it might enhance by $250,000. The final one occurred. Imanaga completed fifth within the 2024 NL Cy Younger voting, including 1 / 4 million {dollars} to his 2025 contract and any doable future seasons.
These escalators have yet one more sophisticated facet, as a result of not the entire cash would go to Imanaga. He would get 85% of all escalator cash, however Yokohama would get the opposite 15%. So when he completed fifth within the Cy Younger voting, he truly added $425,000 to his 2025 contract, whereas the opposite $75,000 went to the BayStars. Put all that collectively, and simply in these first two years of the deal, there have been seven other ways the contract might’ve gone. Imanaga might’ve gotten no bonuses, or he might’ve gotten any mixture of the 2024 Rookie of the 12 months and Cy Younger bonuses, all of which might’ve affected his pay for 2025 and past.
Subsequent come the choices. Possibly you’ve observed that the reporting about Imanaga’s state of affairs over the past couple days has come beneath oddly anodyne headlines. The one I noticed most frequently was impressively passive: “Shota Imanaga Turns into Free Agent,” like there was a chrysalis concerned or one thing.
Why so bland? As a result of each the participant and the group had a say. After the 2025 season, the Cubs had an choice to carry Imanaga again for 3 years and $57 million. The construction of the group possibility was solely slightly bit sophisticated, within the sense that it was a bit front-loaded. Imanaga would have gotten $20 million in each 2026 and 2027, then $17 million in 2028. Going from $13 million in 2025 to $20 million in 2026 is an awfully massive leap, and it might’ve been locked in as a result of if the Cubs had exercised the choice, Imanaga’s no-trade clause would have gone from restricted to full. To take a fast detour into, , baseball, the graph beneath reveals you why the Cubs could have been hesitant to enroll in three extra years at a considerably larger value level. Consistent with the spirit of the train, I made it additional busy, so I’ll clarify it a bit within the subsequent paragraph.
The darkish blue ERA- line makes it appear to be Imanaga is a steal at any value. The man put up a 2.91 ERA final yr, then 3.73 this yr for a mixed complete of three.28. That’s implausible, regardless of some regression to the imply. However the different three strains are worrisome. His FIP has been rising ever since his sizzling begin in 2024 as a result of his strikeout charge has been dropping. His groundball charge plummeted this yr. Though it’s not on this chart, he misplaced greater than a tick of velocity on his fastball, dropping it to 90.8 mph. Even among the many cohort of left-handed starters who threw no less than 1,000 pitches, that put him in simply the nineteenth percentile. These are actual causes for concern, particularly for a pitcher who can be in his age-34 season on the finish of the deal.
Fortunately for Imanaga, he had an insurance coverage plan in his again pocket within the type of a participant possibility for the 2026 season. Had he triggered it, he might’ve stayed in Chicago and made $15 million. If the graph I confirmed you was so ugly, why didn’t he take it and get that assured pay increase? For starters, not all of that $15 million would have gone to him. Similar to the escalator cash, 15% of all possibility cash over any a part of the deal would’ve gone again to the BayStars. In different phrases, had he exercised this selection, Imanaga truly would have gotten a pay minimize from the $13.2125 million he made in 2025 (because of the fifth-place Cy Younger end) to $12.9625 million (which is 85% of $15 million and that $250,000 bonus).
Imanaga additionally had baseball causes to suppose that he might exit and discover a higher, longer-term deal. No matter what FIP mentioned, he was nonetheless capable of hold the ball within the yard nicely sufficient to run a stable ERA in 2025. And there’s motive to anticipate his numbers to bounce again in 2026. Imanaga suffered a hamstring pressure in Might, and his strikeout charge, groundball charge, and velocity all rebounded slightly bit on the finish of the season. He may be again to his previous self when he’s absolutely wholesome, and he’s a artful lefty with an extended observe report of success. It is smart for him to guess on himself whereas he’s nonetheless in his early 30s.
By declining that possibility, Imanaga precluded an entire different department of the contract. Had he exercised it and performed for the Cubs in 2026, then they might have had an possibility for the 2027 and 2028 seasons, paying him $24 million within the first yr and $18 million within the second yr. (If these quantity strike you as odd, good eye. They appear bizarre, however mixed with that first participant possibility, they add as much as three years and $57 million, the identical as the primary possibility the Cubs declined.) And if they’d declined that possibility, then he would have had one ultimate participant possibility, as soon as once more for $15 million, for the 2027 season. (As we established earlier, Imanaga would have solely obtained 85% of all of the figures I simply talked about, and people numbers are all contingent on Cy Younger Awards, so at this level, we will add $250,000 to all of them in our heads.) Whenever you mix the 2 participant choices, by leaving, Imanaga is popping down a assured two years and $25.925 million within the perception that he can get a greater deal in free company. He’s in all probability proper!
With that department pruned earlier than it had the prospect to exist, Imanaga’s contract state of affairs is lastly clear, proper? After all not, as a result of we’re again to the qualifying supply! As specified by attachment 45 of the CBA on web page 311, the qualifying supply is well worth the common wage of the league’s 125 highest-paid gamers, which for the 2026 season comes out to $22.025 million. If Imanaga accepts, he’ll be getting a giant pay increase, however he’ll even be forgoing the prospect to check free company for an additional yr. It appears unlikely, however there’s at all times an opportunity that after a disappointing, injury-affected season, he might see it as a very mild pillow contract. He will get that well-paid yr to show himself, however with out the necessity to regulate to an entire new group and metropolis.
I’m not 100% certain on my math right here, primarily as a result of holy God is these things convoluted, however I calculate that between all the choice eventualities, the potential of taking, rejecting, or not getting a QO on the finish of every situation, and 4 completely different award-escalator potentialities for every particular person season, this contract might have performed out 3,383 other ways. That features every little thing from the most straightforward – Imanaga pitches two seasons, doesn’t get any awards votes, and leaves with out a QO – to essentially the most elaborate. That one includes Imanaga pitching six seasons for the Cubs. He wins the Rookie of the 12 months in 2024 and the Cy Younger yearly. The Cubs decline their three-year possibility, so he workout routines 2026 participant possibility, then the Cubs choose up their possibility for 2027 and 2028 and he accepts the QO in 2029. It earns him someplace within the neighborhood of $122 million over six years, moderately than the 2 years and $23.2125 million he’s earned to date (not together with his 2025 postseason share and 2024 All-Star stipend). What my coronary heart actually desires is for Imanaga to simply accept the QO, then pitch so nicely in 2026 that the Cubs are determined to get him to signal an extension earlier than the season is out, simply to maintain this organized chaos going for so long as doable.
I notice that this was in all probability a tricky learn on a Friday afternoon. Main league contracts are extremely sophisticated for superb causes, and though I might change about 1,000,000 issues in regards to the present system if I had been in command of it, I don’t suppose the latest proliferation of choices and incentive clauses is essentially a foul factor. It’s logical for each side to search for safety blankets in case of harm or underperformance. It’s cheap to have a system the place you may have your base pay after which bonuses for those who carry out very well, particularly in a job like this one. However though it’s cheap and logical, diving into the specifics of only one contract illustrates simply how absurd the entire state of affairs is, and that’s earlier than we get into the formulation for calculating how a lot meal cash gamers get on street journeys. Imanaga’s state of affairs has performed out in essentially the most simple method doable, with not one of the varied possibility eventualities coming to fruition, nevertheless it’s nonetheless too sophisticated for a headline that sounds prefer it was written by a human being. So let’s hold it going.