2026 Prime 50 MLB Free Brokers

Welcome to the beginning of one other offseason. As is customary, now that the World Sequence has concluded, FanGraphs is releasing our rating of the highest 50 free brokers accessible available on the market this winter. Quite a few writers have helmed this checklist through the years: first Dave Cameron, then Kiley McDaniel, Craig Edwards, and most just lately me. That is now my fifth yr curating these rankings, and as at all times, my actual superpower is collaboration. The FanGraphs employees contributed mightily at each step alongside the way in which.

Beneath, I’ve supplied contract estimates and rankings of the offseason’s prime free brokers, together with market-focused commentary for the highest 25 gamers. That could possibly be a sketch of probably suitors, a dialogue of how qualifying provides may have an effect on a participant’s considering, and even simply statistical evaluation dressed up as market evaluation for Halloween – I’m a baseball nerd at coronary heart, what can I say? A group of FanGraphs writers – Davy Andrews (DA), Michael Baumann (MB), James Fegan (JF), Jay Jaffe (JJ), David Laurila (DL), Eric Longenhagen (EL), Kiri Oler (KO), Esteban Rivera (ER), and Dan Szymborski (DS) – have provided player-focused breakdowns for the complete prime 50, designed to supply some context for every participant at this specific level of their profession. Big thanks go to Meg Rowley for appearing as a sounding board all through the method, Eric Longenhagen for his intensive contributions to my analysis of the worldwide gamers, Jason Martinez and Jon Becker for his or her market data, and Sean Dolinar and David Appelman for technical help.

The gamers are ranked within the order through which I want them. That’s usually the identical as rating them in contract order, however not at all times. In some instances, I want a participant I anticipate will get much less cash over one who stands to make extra. I’ll typically make notice of that within the accompanying remark, however simply to reiterate, this checklist isn’t completely sorted by descending common annual worth or something like that.

All the greenback quantities are estimated ensures. Loads of contracts will embrace workforce choices or participant incentives, however these aren’t included right here; participant choose outs are equally not included. Except in any other case famous, the projections beneath are Steamer 2026 projections, however use our Depth Chart taking part in time allocations. The listed ages point out the age-season the participant is about to play. Each participant’s crowdsourced projection will seem alongside my projection.

Groups have till 5 PM ET on November 6 to increase qualifying provides to gamers. Gamers then have 10 days from their receipt of these provides to both settle for or decline them. As a refresher, if a participant receives and declines a qualifying supply, which this yr is valued at $22.025 million for one yr, the workforce that ultimately indicators that participant forfeits a draft decide, whereas the workforce that made the supply beneficial properties one. Which draft picks change fingers relies on the circumstances of each groups, in addition to the overall greenback worth of the contract signed. I made assumptions about which gamers will obtain qualifying provides and thought of how that may have an effect on their particular circumstances; you’ll be able to examine these within the blurbs beneath.

For a complete checklist of this yr’s free brokers, which shall be up to date to incorporate signings as they happen and crowdsource outcomes for gamers whose future offers we polled on, please seek the advice of our Free Agent Tracker.

The highest of this yr’s free agent market goes to be a shock after the final three offseasons. Aaron Choose, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto headlined these lessons, and every signed what was, on the time, the biggest contract within the sport’s historical past. That development isn’t going to proceed this yr. Kyle Tucker, the consensus prime hitter available on the market, is nice and likewise clearly not in the identical neighborhood as that trio. These offers reset the market. Tucker goes to get an enormous deal, and it’ll run for a very long time. It’s simply not going to be for $700 million.

His market shall be fascinating, in actual fact. There’s little question that Tucker has been among the best hitters within the league for the previous half decade. He’s tenth in WAR over that span, sandwiched between Mookie Betts and Corey Seager. He’ll solely be 29 subsequent yr, nonetheless squarely on the peak of his powers. He does all the pieces on the plate, hitting for energy and getting on base with equal aplomb. He’s not a fantastic defender, however neither is he DH-only. However he had a disappointing 2025 and an particularly unhealthy second half, maybe partially defined by a hairline fracture in his hand after which a calf pressure. He additionally missed half of the 2024 season with a fractured shin. It’s just a little bit scary at hand somebody getting harm at that clip a contract that may final greater than a decade. Moreover, his peak may be extra “excellent All-Star” than MVP; he’s by no means completed a season among the many prime 15 place gamers by WAR, although he was on tempo to take action earlier than getting harm in 2024. If I had been working a workforce, I’d be completely satisfied paying Tucker a giant fats pile of cash, however that pile wouldn’t examine to what’s sitting in Soto’s vault.

Behind Tucker, there are eight gamers I’ve above the remainder of the fray. Who you rank first in that group relies on what you’re searching for. Need elite manufacturing within the fast future? Alex Bregman, contemporary off of a superb however injury-shortened season and about to show 32, is your man. Searching for pure offense? Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber match the invoice. Dylan Stop, Framber Valdez, and Ranger Suárez supply high-quality pitching. Cody Bellinger does just a little little bit of all the pieces. Bo Bichette won’t be a shortstop for lengthy, however he’s a center infielder who hits like a primary baseman.

One other change from current years: I don’t assume Tucker will maintain up the remainder of the market in the identical means that Choose, Ohtani, and Soto did. Positive, the groups pursuing Tucker may pivot to one of many second-tier hitters ought to they miss out on their prime prize, however the mixture of a number of comparable offensive choices and the truth that Tucker isn’t the identical type of generational celebrity that we’ve been spoiled with of late implies that a few of these suitors shall be trying to signal a number of free brokers, or shall be equally completely satisfied getting one of some choices, or in any other case simply unwilling to attend round and threat lacking out on a participant they like within the hopes that Tucker will select them.

One huge image notice on this class: There are a lot of pitchers in my prime 50 — 15 starters and 14 relievers. That displays current tendencies in free company and roster development. The very prime of the free agent market has star hitters who’re adequate to play for just about any workforce, however as you get into the underside of the checklist, the place common veterans and good function gamers reside, groups more and more want inner choices to middle-of-the-road free brokers. Except a workforce is kind of unhealthy at participant improvement, there are most likely some prospects in the direction of the highest of their farm system who might, if issues break proper, outperform the aforementioned common veteran. Why not save just a little cash whereas concurrently discovering out if one in every of your prospects is usually a constructing block in your future squad? This isn’t new; groups have been pushing on this common route for years.

Alternatively, you’ll be able to by no means have an excessive amount of pitching. When you signal a median third baseman, the minor league third basemen in your system at the moment are blocked from beginning within the majors until they will be taught a brand new place. When you signal a median pitcher, nice! Somebody has to begin each sport, and 5 beginning pitchers is nowhere near sufficient given the excessive price of attrition trendy hurlers expertise. Final yr, 31 of the 50 largest contracts went to pitchers. I believe the cash goes to proceed flowing in that route this yr – star hitters will get essentially the most, however mid-tier pitchers will outperform their bat-carrying counterparts.

Lastly, a couple of extra particular observations. There’s some uncertainty over which KBO and NPB gamers are headed stateside, however I’ve included Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto, Tatsuya Imai, and Cody Ponce in our prime 50. I’d want a couple of different gamers from these leagues to a few of the names on the backside of this checklist, however I believe it’s unlikely that they’re accessible for the contracts that I’m projecting in that vary.

I’m decrease than consensus on pitchers who’re coming back from catastrophic damage and hitting the market after a brief contract, particularly Brandon Woodruff and Tyler Mahle. I’m typically in favor of accepting some threat of damage in change for the possibility at a below-market ace, however I believe that each of these guys have significant threat elements that push them decrease on my choice checklist. Each stand out relative to the gamers round them on this checklist with regards to my contract estimates. That’s as a result of I believe that the market will worth them extra extremely than I might, had been I working a workforce’s free company course of. I believe they’ll get stable offers; I simply have a decrease estimation of how that may end up than the broad consensus.

Alternatively, I’m larger than consensus on Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley, two fallen-star closers who compiled poor 2025 seasons after being among the many finest in baseball for years on finish earlier than that. Sure, relievers are extraordinarily risky, however each Williams and Helsley possess ridiculous strikeout stuff and missed a boatload of bats even whereas they put up poor run prevention numbers. I’d be keen to supply each of them greater than a pillow deal, and actually I’d most likely supply them greater than what I’ve estimated they’ll obtain, as a result of I believe that both of the 2 could possibly be the very best reliever in an excellent bullpen, and that signing them after a down yr is extra prone to work out than signing them after a profession yr.

That’s a broad, top-level view of the market. When you’re questioning why one participant is decrease than you’d anticipate, or why a sure class of participant is over- or under-represented, or why somebody was left off totally, it’s most likely as a result of how they match into that image. With these themes and caveats in thoughts, let’s get to the checklist.

Ben’s Take
As I discussed within the introduction, Tucker is the highest free agent within the class, however he’s not in the identical class because the market-topping stars who’ve signed record-setting offers in recent times. The groups most curious about him shall be people who take into account his outcomes from 2024 and the primary half of this yr to be near his true expertise stage. That may imply that the second half of this yr, and naturally the 110 missed video games up to now two years, are simply noise. I imagine that a couple of groups will come to that conclusion, and that Tucker will signal an infinite deal, however one which falls meaningfully wanting the massive offers of current years.

When you take our projections for Tucker as gospel, the numbers being bandied about don’t add up. Add a premium for stars, spherical up as a result of he’s the very best participant available on the market, and I can persuade my mannequin that Tucker ought to break $300 million, however I can’t get anyplace close to the $400 million to $500 million vary that was a well-liked hand-wave estimate for Tucker earlier than the beginning of this season. Ultimately, I informed my mannequin to pound sand and estimated him meaningfully larger, however I’m under no circumstances assured on this quantity. I’ll be watching his market develop with nice curiosity. It’s an enchanting one; he’s clearly the very best free agent accessible, and but if I had been working a workforce, at the same time as a lot as I’m in favor of paying up for stars and figuring issues out later, I don’t assume my supply could be aggressive with the highest of the league.

Participant Notes
Will the actual Kyle Tucker please get up? Acquired from the Astros in a December 2024 blockbuster, Tucker hit .291/.395/.537 (157 wRC+) with 17 homers via the tip of June. He then slipped right into a protracted stoop at first of July, and for a 39-game stretch hit .184/.321/.228 with only one homer. On August 21, the Cubs revealed that Tucker had performed via a hairline fracture in his proper ring finger, suffered throughout a June 1 slide; the damage didn’t align together with his drop in manufacturing, however the announcement, which adopted a short benching for a psychological and mechanical reset, appeared to supply a jolt. He homered thrice in two days and tore the duvet off the ball for 2 weeks, although a left calf pressure sidelined him for many of September.

Tucker’s remaining line (.266/.377/.464) thus appears to be like just a little disappointing, significantly given his career-low slugging proportion and full-season low 22 homers. Even so, his 136 wRC+ matched his mixed mark from 2020–23, and his 4.5 WAR was on par with these seasons’ marks; it’s his .289/.408/.585 (179 wRC+) line and 4.2 WAR in 78 video games in 2024 — with three months misplaced to a fracture in his proper shin — that distorted expectations. He’s not within the stratosphere of Choose, Ohtani, or Soto, the free brokers who headed our final three Prime 50 lists, however Tucker’s all-around talents will assist him receives a commission handsomely. – JJ

Ben’s Take
Former Astros are going to be a scorching commodity this winter. Bregman impressed in his first post-Houston season, a minimum of for so long as he was wholesome; he missed almost two months with a quad pressure and misplaced a significant quantity of energy after returning. Even with the missed time and the gradual end, although, his mixture of stable protection at third base, endurance on the plate, and extra-base hits fueled by the Inexperienced Monster made him one in every of Boston’s finest gamers on the yr. As anticipated, he opted out of the 2 years and $80 million remaining on his contract (extra like $63 million after accounting for the intense deferrals in that deal).

I believe that the trail of least resistance is for the Pink Sox to get again into the Bregman enterprise as rapidly as doable. His lift-and-pull swing is a superb match for Fenway, and the infield has been the workforce’s best weak spot of late. The Sox could have loads of payroll house accessible, with solely $167 million dedicated in 2026 with Bregman having opted out, and this class is mild on infielders outdoors of first base. Just a few extra years, at the same common annual worth, ought to work for each side – and given the proper match between stadium and participant, I believe they’ve the within observe on making that occur.

Participant Notes
For some time there, it seemed just like the plan had labored completely. Via August 22, regardless of lacking a month-and-a-half with a quad pressure, Bregman had performed 83 video games with a 155 wRC+. He was slashing .309/.393/.540 with 24 house runs. He made the Pink Sox neglect all concerning the incumbent All-Star third baseman who’d spent the previous seven seasons because the face of the franchise. As deliberate, Bregman might choose out of his big, quick deal with the intention to get an enormous, lengthy deal. Then the underside fell out. From August 23 on, he batted .180 with a 48 wRC+ and two homers.

It occurs. Bregman ended up with a 125 wRC+ on the yr, almost equivalent to the 124 he averaged over the earlier 5 seasons. It was a field commonplace Alex Bregman season, lower down to only 3.5 WAR due to the quad pressure and the late swoon. He opted out all the identical, and now right here he’s available on the market. He’s the identical contact-making, chase-avoiding, strikeout-allergic, lifting-pulling-walking machine he’s at all times been. He graded out nearer to good than nice on protection. On a WAR-per-PA foundation, he ranked simply outdoors the highest 30 amongst place gamers. The Pink Sox spent the entire season raving about his management qualities. ZiPS projected him for a 113 wRC+ earlier than the season, however he refused to slip down the getting old curve. He’s Alex Bregman. The identical Alex Bregman! Possibly at some point that shall be sufficient for a protracted deal. – DA

Ben’s Take
Stop is one in every of three pitchers who you possibly can fairly take into account the very best accessible this winter, and he’s the one with the loudest instruments. His slider is without doubt one of the finest in baseball, and he’s labored diligently to reshape his four-seam fastball right into a bat-missing possibility, culminating in a career-high swinging strike price on the pitch in 2025. He additionally made a full complement of begins for the sixth straight yr, a surprising statistic for a beginning pitcher together with his mixture of velocity and spin.

The draw back case with Stop is that his two-pitch method received’t work if he loses a little bit of oomph on his fastball or a little bit of chunk on his slider as he ages. The upside case is that he hasn’t performed any of the issues that older pitchers often do to increase their effectiveness but; he might add a cutter, or be taught a brand new changeup grip (or two), or begin throwing extra sinkers, or any variety of pitch-mix hacks. I believe a minimum of a couple of groups will have a look at the mixture of sturdiness and outcomes, sprinkle in just a little optimism about their in-house pitching improvement, and provides Stop greater than another pitcher this winter. I’ve estimated 5 years as a result of whereas I believe that groups will proceed to want shorter offers for pitching, the highest few names available on the market typically get a yr greater than could be strictly comfy for the signing workforce. 4 would really feel comfortable; thus, I believe he’ll get 5.

Participant Notes
A cursory look may counsel that Stop had a down yr in 2025, going 8-12 with a 4.55 ERA for the Padres and probably affecting his free agent payout considerably. Luckily for him, Stop’s free agent case shall be assessed by in the present day’s entrance workplaces, not these of 1995, and his most up-to-date season appears to be like loads like his final a number of. There’s nothing lurking in his Statcast knowledge to point that his 3.56 FIP in 2025 or his 3.37 FIP during the last 5 seasons is deceptive; his hard-hit price is in line with good efficiency, and he missed bats in addition to he ever has. At .320, his BABIP was on the excessive aspect for the second yr within the final three, as he continued his sample of alternating between nice and horrible BABIP seasons, however ZiPS doesn’t see something worrisome in his hit knowledge, and like Steamer (.290 projected 2026 BABIP), sees him settling within the center.

Stop has by no means developed an actual offspeed pitch to punch out lefties, however he makes use of his knuckle-curve for the same objective — albeit with combined outcomes — and has at all times been comfy throwing his slider with a platoon drawback. He additionally has a superb well being historical past, and ranks fourth in baseball in innings thrown during the last 5 years. On this, the yr earlier than Tarik Skubal Thunderdome, Stop ought to have the ability to struggle it out with Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez for the largest pitching jackpot this winter. – DS

Ben’s Take
In case your workforce has a number of wonderful defensive infielders, they’re most likely pursuing Valdez this winter. He’s one of many premier groundball pitchers within the league, the uncommon hurler whose outlier abilities will look extraordinarily completely different primarily based on who’s standing behind him. Conversely, that makes him roughly proof against stadium results. There’s not a lot motive to place Valdez in Seattle, for instance, as a result of he doesn’t need assistance suppressing house runs. A pure house could be a workforce just like the Brewers or Cubs; nice protection in a impartial ballpark.

Valdez’s market is sophisticated not solely by his distinctive profile however by a number of different confounding variables. Nearly 32, he’s the oldest pitcher prone to command a top-of-the-market deal. His upside feels extra capped than that of his counterparts; it’s laborious for me to think about him discovering one other gear as a result of he already maxes out his abilities so nicely. Then there was the time it seemed like he crossed up his personal catcher on objective (Valdez later mentioned he hit him by mistake), which could give some groups pause. That leads me to anticipate a barely smaller deal than Stop will obtain; the marketplace for Valdez is simply inherently narrower.

Usually, good-pitcher-with-question-marks means a high-dollar, short-term deal. I’m skeptical right here, although. Valdez debuted comparatively late and hasn’t hit a giant free agent payday but; I anticipate him to prioritize whole assure provided that backdrop. I don’t assume any workforce would supply him greater than 5 years, and I’m not even positive they’ll go that lengthy – but when they do, I wager he’d settle for it.

Participant Notes
Even essentially the most threat averse groups needs to be salivating as Valdez enters free company. He has no significant purple flags. Possibly his age counts as a yellow flag — subsequent yr shall be his age-32 season —and all pitchers include a flag for damage threat, however Valdez has been sturdy up to now in his profession. He missed a couple of weeks in 2024 with elbow irritation, however nonetheless made 28 begins and pitched to a 2.91 ERA that yr. In any other case, Valdez has been as constant as they arrive, throwing a minimum of 175 innings in every of the final 4 seasons, whereas sustaining a 24% strikeout price and an 8% stroll price, with an ERA- and FIP- that place him round 20% higher than league common.

He’s liable to laborious contact, which makes for cynical anticipated stats on his participant web page, however Valdez has a longtime observe report of outperforming his anticipated numbers so long as he can hold that tough contact on the bottom. Valdez makes use of a considerably distinctive arsenal to induce groundballs. As an alternative of a slider, he pairs a curveball together with his sinker and changeup. It’s an east/west method, however all three choices dart downward as they method the plate, resulting in a variety of topped balls. Valdez did fade a bit within the second half of 2025, however absent another indicators of regression, he and his groundball-heavy method really feel like a protected wager for any workforce with an infield protection price a darn. – KO

Ben’s Take
I’ve spent a variety of time considering Bellinger within the context of free company due to his up-and-down profession and the sophisticated contract buildings that hold granting him extra alternatives to hit the market. He simply declined his participant possibility, and this time round, I anticipate him to pursue a longer-term association. Luckily for Bellinger, 2025 was among the best years of his post-MVP second act, and his mixture of defensive versatility and resurgent offense implies that a ton of groups shall be curious about giving him what he’s searching for.

I believe it’s cheap to wonder if his offensive method, one thing of a left-handed model of Isaac Paredes, is viable outdoors of stadiums that favor lefty house run hitters. However even with out the homers, he takes his walks and doesn’t strike out fairly often, which supplies him a pleasant flooring. I additionally love that Bellinger’s an elite defensive first baseman along with being nice within the outfield (I gave him a second-place vote in this yr’s Fielding Bible awards). If he loses a step later within the deal, his off-ramp is ideal; simply slide him over to first base and anticipate the Gold Gloves to stream.

The plain touchdown spot is for Bellinger to stay a Yankee. They want a number of outfielders, and he’s a fantastic match for the stadium. However I believe his market is meaningfully broader than that, and I additionally assume that the Yankees of late have been picky as a substitute of profligate of their spending. My level: Prepare for some assume items on the state of Yankees possession if Bellinger goes elsewhere, as a result of I anticipate him to discover a sturdy bid away from the Bronx.

Participant Notes
Bellinger flourished within the Bronx this season. His stable all-around play, relentless pursuit of contact, and skill to tug the ball in a park that closely favors it mixed for his finest season by WAR apart from his 2019 MVP run. It was all excellent apart from his poor (albeit quick) postseason displaying. Even so, questions on Bellinger’s potential to carry out yr in and yr out stay, and that’s largely as a result of peripherals that haven’t modified all that a lot since he bounced again in 2023, when he remade his offensive profile.

His xwOBACON this season improved relative to 2024, however it was decrease than in 2023. Equally, his bat velocity bounced again after a decline in 2024, however it decreased linearly each month of the season. Sustaining these beneficial properties shall be essential. Other than widening his stance a bit and shutting his entrance foot barely, nearly each different piece of his offensive profile is similar to the place it’s been the final couple of seasons. When you learn all that and are left scratching your head, it’s a reminder of how good of a match Bellinger is in Yankee Stadium. Residence/highway splits aren’t at all times so straight ahead, however Bellinger’s 152 wRC+ at house vs. 97 mark on the highway holds weight. He’s a fantastic match for groups with favorable proper discipline dimensions. If his market mirrors that, don’t be stunned. – ER

Ben’s Take
When you attempt to approximate Schwarber’s market primarily based on the WAR projections you see above, you’re going to come back up quick. Groups are not any dummies, and that quantity doesn’t do a superb job of capturing Schwarber’s whole worth. He’s among the best 15 or so hitters within the majors, and defensive potential issues far much less when that’s the case. Somebody has to play DH for each workforce, and Schwarber represents an improve for each workforce save the Dodgers and maybe the Astros.

On the subject of pure offense, Schwarber might be the very best man available on the market, and if it’s not him, it’s the man beneath him. That offers him a robust negotiating place. You’ll be able to’t replicate Schwarber within the mixture with two so-so hitters. You’ll be able to’t faux a 50-homer DH. Groups may be risk-averse within the excessive as of late, however there isn’t precisely a variety of threat in “will Kyle Schwarber hit subsequent yr?” The larger threat, in actual fact, may be lacking the very best bat available on the market while you’re attempting to win now.

The one motive I didn’t put Schwarber larger on this checklist is his age. He’ll be 33 when the 2026 season begins, and that makes a protracted deal roughly inconceivable. Older hitters have had a depressing time within the trendy majors. Prior to now decade, hitters aged 35 and over have managed seven seasons of a 140 or larger wRC+. 4 of these seven seasons belong to Nelson Cruz. Possibly Schwarber would be the subsequent man to do it, but when he’s, he’ll accomplish that on a sequence of shorter offers. That’s simply how free company works as of late.

Participant Notes
Schwarber is coming off the very best of his 4 seasons with the Phillies, as he set profession highs in homers (56), wRC+ (152, through a .240/.365/.563 line), slugging proportion, and WAR (4.9). His season was no fluke both, in that he hit the ball tougher than ever, setting highs in common exit velocity (94.3 mph), barrel price (20.8%), hard-hit price (59.6%), xSLG (.601), and xwOBA (.414), and maximized that impression by trimming his strikeout price to it its lowest since 2021 (27.2%). For the second season in a row, the Phillies maximized the worth they received from Schwarber by maintaining him out of the outfield as a lot as doable, taking part in him in left simply eight instances in 2025 after doing so 5 instances in 2024 — a clever resolution provided that he totaled -37 FRV and -34 DRS in 242 video games in left discipline in 2022–23.

That’s the excellent news. The unhealthy information is that at his age, it’s powerful to ascertain a repeat of 2025, and parking him at DH prices a workforce flexibility and limits his market (don’t anticipate the Dodgers or Yankees to bid on him). Nonetheless, the person is a Vibes All-Star, and can probably exceed a straight dollars-to-WAR projection as a result of he’s so extremely regarded inside clubhouses and by followers. – JJ

Ben’s Take
After accepting a pillow contract final yr, Alonso is hitting free company once more with a rosier trajectory. This time, he’s coming off of his finest offensive season as a substitute of his worst one, and it’s no small-sample fluke. His contact high quality is nearly as good because it’s ever been, and his plate self-discipline hasn’t slipped in any respect. Final yr, an optimistic projection for Alonso would have been matching his profession batting line at age 30. He cleared that bar with ease, and there’s no query that his season has modified the projected arc of his profession.

I had Alonso down for $140 million final yr, and I anticipate him to beat that assure after making an allowance for the $30 million he earned in 2025. This isn’t precisely a one-team market, however the Mets will certainly be a prime suitor; he’s a fan favourite, they want offense, and Steve Cohen has by no means been afraid to spend. The truth is, I wager that each side are incentivized to come back to a fast settlement. Alonso would probably want to get his deal performed earlier than Schwarber to forestall a repeat of final yr’s expertise. The Mets, likewise, are attempting to win now and may’t afford to get too cute for the sake of saving a couple of {dollars}. The catastrophe state of affairs for them – Schwarber’s market is powerful, Alonso will get an enormous supply away, and a bidding battle ensues – looks like too huge of a threat to me. And whereas Alonso may ask for seven years, I believe that 4 at a good-looking AAV will get it performed. The trail of least resistance is for everybody to comply with a contract that comes via on the upside Alonso chased final yr.

Participant Notes
Regardless of a stellar profession at Florida, Alonso was solely a second spherical decide partially as a result of, for the higher a part of the final twenty years, the righty-hitting faculty first basemen demographic has not often yielded impactful main leaguers. It wasn’t till his second full professional season, after Alonso exited A-ball, that he actually broke out with a 36-homer marketing campaign break up between Double- and Triple-A. That yr, he tied Ibandel Isabel for the minor league lead in homers, accepted an award for the feat on the Winter Conferences in Las Vegas, and later that night, rolled some cube at The Cosmopolitan because the employees of our web site strolled previous him on our solution to dinner. The next season, Alonso had a historic debut as he received NL Rookie of the Yr and broke Aaron Choose’s single-season rookie house run report with 53 bombs.

Although he’s by no means fairly had one other season like that first one, Alonso has been one in every of baseball’s most fearsome energy hitters for the final seven years. He’s third throughout all of baseball in homers (264) since his debut, first in RBI (712, 32 greater than the subsequent man), twelfth in slugging proportion (.516) and prime 30 in doubles. He’s generated simply shy of 21 profession WAR, which is fortieth amongst hitters since Alsono debuted, and fifth amongst first basemen.

Alonso first hit free company after the 2024 season, however he was coming off a career-worst .459 SLG and 34 homers. There was pervasive worry that he could possibly be this technology’s Mo Vaughn or Richie Sexson, that his physique sort and elegance of play had been the type that leads to a precipitous decline, and that that decline had perhaps already begun. Alonso ended up on a short-term contract with the Mets that included a second-year choose out, which he exercised after a formidable 2025 rebound marketing campaign throughout which he almost tied his profession excessive wRC+ (141) and was close to the very prime of the majors in hard-hit price, barrel price, and different bodily metrics that reinforce his continued prowess. He’ll flip 31 in December and needs to be primed for an extended deal this time round. – EL

Ben’s Take
I believe that Bichette goes to get the second-largest assure of anybody this winter. Shortstops his age with wonderful profession offensive numbers don’t develop on timber. The pitch e-book virtually writes itself. Previous market comps embrace Willy Adames, Dansby Swanson, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Marcus Semien, heck, even Javier Báez. All of these guys a minimum of tickled the $200 million threshold. There’s mainly no probability that Bichette will fall wanting that, a minimum of in my estimation.

Regardless of that sturdy pedigree, I’d positively want the seven gamers listed forward of him right here. For me, Bichette’s lack of impression protection implies that he’s one of many gamers who WAR overvalues most; positive, he’s a shortstop, however he’s one of many worst defensive shortstops in baseball. I believe that groups throughout the majors would like to maneuver him to second base, however even there, I believe he’d most likely be a defensive legal responsibility, and that’s earlier than we get into age-related decline. A few of his points may be as a result of damage, however that’s even scarier; he’s made six journeys to the IL up to now three years, and his footspeed has paid the worth.

That’s the dimmest doable view you possibly can take of Bichette: a fake shortstop who our flagship statistic overrates. However the counterpoint is fairly straightforward, too: He’s 20% above common offensively, and are available on, you don’t assume he can be taught to play second base if he’s wholesome? He would have had a prime 5 batting line on the place this yr. Loads of shortstops have shifted positions and became good defenders at their new spot. Bichette’s bat actually is a distinction maker, even when I believe his worth typically will get overstated because of this. In sum, regardless that Bichette isn’t my type of free agent, he’s unquestionably excellent, and I’m fairly positive that many groups shall be curious about persevering with the young-star-shortstop-gets-paid development.

Participant Notes
Perception typically comes from surprising sources, and on some days, actor Christoph Waltz saying “there can by no means be an entire with no contradiction” on an episode of Legendary Kitchen cues that it’s time to deeply focus on Bo Bichette.

Solely 50 main leaguers have made their means into extra video games than Bichette’s 673 during the last 5 seasons, however his observe report is dogged by decrease physique accidents. A number of proper calf strains restricted him to 81 video games in a depressing 2024 marketing campaign, whereas a left knee sprain knocked him out for the final three weeks of this season and sidelined him till a Willis Reed-like return for the World Sequence. However Bichette’s proper leg was the first wrongdoer up till then, as he suffered a sprain in that knee again in 2020, and handled minor patellar tendinitis and a quad pressure in 2023. His relevance as a basestealer has evaporated because the incidents have multiplied. Shifting to second base whereas Andrés Giménez manned quick in opposition to the Dodgers was an injury-based adaptation, however Bichette’s protection was a minimum of 10 runs within the gap per DRS, OAA and FRV in 2025, so making it a everlasting relocation needs to be a precedence for his workforce whether or not he stays part of Toronto’s in any other case prime flight protection or travels elsewhere.

Bichette has produced a fair 20 WAR over his workforce management years for the reason that Blue Jays popped him within the second spherical of the 2016 draft. But if a dispatch from the longer term had knowledgeable us that Bichette’s explosive, full-body twister of a swing would produce in-zone contact charges within the 90s, he wouldn’t have fallen even that far and that WAR whole would really feel like damage performed a bigger half. He received’t flip 28 till March, has maintained a 47.4% hard-hit price during the last 5 seasons, and has such good bat-to-ball ability that decreasing his chase price to a career-best (however nonetheless elevated) 33.8% put him in the identical strikeout price territory as Yandy Díaz, Ketel Marte and Ozzie Albies. Regardless of the dynamism of his swing, Bichette is just not a bat velocity maven, and his contact-focused orientation matches him greater than it would initially seem. So even coming off a 134 wRC+ season, Bichette’s manufacturing has turn into so rooted in line drive trajectories {that a} repeat of his 29-homer marketing campaign in 2021 is tough to fathom with no vital swing and/or method tweak. Till then, it is a contact-hitting second baseman going ahead, albeit one with a simple probability of being top-three within the league on the place. – JF

Ben’s Take
For the previous 5 years, Suárez has been churning out three-win seasons like clockwork. He’s performed it in a means that’s going to be very polarizing to potential suitors this winter, although. Fashionable pitching evaluation leans closely on measuring pitch traits to provide an approximation of uncooked stuff. Suárez doesn’t excel there; as a substitute, he will get the job performed by mixing 5 pitches and finding them with nice precision. He’s an archetypical artful lefty, in different phrases, a throwback to a earlier period. He’s additionally hit the IL in three straight years, lacking a month or so every time; in actual fact, he’s by no means hit even 160 innings in his main league profession.

That places Suárez in a wierd spot: old-fashioned method, new college innings load. There aren’t a variety of straightforward comparisons for him. Teammate Aaron Nola looks as if a good first approximation, however Nola boasted extra sturdiness and several other elite seasons heading into his contract yr. Logan Webb’s contract extension could be a mannequin for Suárez, besides that Webb leads the league in innings pitched yearly. Groups prioritize pure dominance even when it comes with workload issues, they usually additionally need workhorses who can lighten the burden for the remainder of the squad. Suárez is caught in between these two archetypes, which goes to restrict his market considerably regardless of his wonderful general outcomes.

Participant Notes
I signed as much as write this blurb as a result of my coronary heart needs Suárez to be ranked larger on this checklist. I get that he doesn’t have the speed, the strikeout price, or the innings whole of a Dylan Stop. I get it. However over his 4 full seasons as a starter, Suárez has run a 3.59 ERA and a 3.56 FIP with a groundball price above 50%. His 12.2 WAR ranks nineteenth amongst all pitchers.

In 2025, he ran a 3.20 ERA and three.21 FIP. His 86.5 mph exit velocity ranked fourth lowest amongst all starters, behind Tarik Skubal, Hunter Brown, and another person I can’t bear in mind (OK high-quality, it was Kyle Hendricks). Suárez averted the longball in a homer-happy park and he set a profession excessive of 157 1/3 innings. He’s received a 1.48 ERA and three.02 FIP throughout 11 postseason appearances.

As for the downsides, the inning totals are low largely as a result of Suárez has handled again points in three of the previous 4 seasons. These have a tendency to not get higher in your 30s. He’s by no means made 30 begins, and the fastball velocity actually is a priority. In 2025, his sinker and four-seamer mixed to common 90.5 mph, which put him in simply the seventh percentile. Whoever indicators Suárez shall be getting one of many sport’s premier pitchers, however they’ll be betting that he ages in addition to Clayton Kershaw, counting on each stuff and guile to carry out at a excessive stage via his age-35 season. It’s a tall order. – DA

Ben’s Take
Díaz stands out from the group of relievers hitting the market this winter. He’s among the best closers within the sport, and he’s nonetheless at his peak; this season was the third time he’s eclipsed 60 innings with an ERA beneath 2.00. If you wish to lock down your bullpen, Díaz is the most suitable choice for 2026 – and doubtless for 2027 and 2028, too, which goes to make him very enticing to each GM who thinks their workforce’s window is open for the subsequent few years. He’s even been remarkably sturdy; the one prolonged absence of his profession got here courtesy of a fluke damage within the WBC that price him the complete 2023 season.

The Mets, whose bullpen fell aside down the stretch regardless of Díaz’s brilliance, give him a robust flooring in contract negotiations. They’ll have options, little question, however none nearly as good as Díaz, and skimping on bullpen choices doesn’t make a variety of sense while you’re sparing no expense on the remainder of the workforce. I’m pretty sure that Díaz will ask for a report common annual worth in his deal, and why wouldn’t he? I’m additionally pretty sure that the Mets will give it to him. I’m calling it three years as a result of he’s opting out of the final two years of his deal; this fashion, he can get each a elevate and one other yr of job safety. Everybody wins.

Participant Notes
Because the December 2018 commerce that introduced him to Queens, and excepting a 2023 season misplaced to a ruptured proper patellar tendon, Díaz has alternated bad-to-mediocre seasons with wonderful ones. Luckily for his free agent prospects, the 2025 season was one of many latter, as he posted a 1.63 ERA and a pair of.28 FIP in 66 1/3 innings whereas changing 28 of 31 save alternatives. His 38% strikeout price ranked second amongst certified relievers, and his 28.9% strikeout-to-walk differential third. Each marks had been much like 2024, however he lower his house run price by greater than half (from 1.17 per 9 to 0.54), which in flip helped him do the identical to his 3.52 ERA.

Digging deeper into his batted ball stats, Díaz threw each his four-seam fastball and slider with comparable frequencies and velocities as earlier than, and posted a career-high 48.4% groundball price; each his common exit velocity and hard-hit charges went up, however a decrease barrel price offset that by sufficient that he even lowered his xERA (from 2.48 to 2.39).

Díaz’s stellar marketing campaign was well-timed. With a watch in the direction of guaranteeing himself a bigger payday, he opted out of the ultimate two years and $38 million of his present five-year, $102 million contract. It’s doable that he and his Timmy Trumpet soundtrack will stay in Queens on a brand new deal, because the Mets are curious about retaining him, and solely so many groups can afford a high-end nearer. – JJ

Ben’s Take
Naylor is fairly clearly a lower beneath Schwarber and Alonso as the very best first base/DH sort available on the market, however he’s on the prime of the second tier in my eyes. His batting line is heavier on on-base and lighter on slug than your common first baseman, however that doesn’t decrease my estimation of him in any respect. It might be one factor if he had been a pure singles hitter or in the midst of a profession yr, however after 4 straight seasons of stable offense, there’s little motive to doubt the way in which he will get to his outcomes. Offensive worth is offensive worth on the finish of the day.

The true sticking level in Naylor’s negotiation goes to be what number of years he indicators for. Groups simply don’t supply lengthy offers to function gamers anymore, and while you get all the way down to it, that’s what Naylor is. I do assume that he’ll beat everybody outdoors of the highest 10 apart from the man instantly following him on this checklist (extra on him later), as a result of his mixture of age and confirmed efficiency stands out relative to his cohort. I’m not sure of whether or not he’ll have to attend till the highest of the hitter market clears to discover a house, however I believe that he’s the clear alternative out of the remainder of the pack, and if I had been working a workforce and wasn’t within the prime prizes, I’d take into account attempting to leap the queue by signing Naylor whereas everybody else focuses on Schwaber.

Participant Notes
Not too long ago, I heard somebody say that Naylor appears to be like like a bouncer at a Tampa strip membership (complimentary), and when an expert athlete may be precisely described in such a fashion, it highlights the contradicting elements groups have to untangle earlier than inking him to a free agent deal. On the one hand, Naylor has posted above-average offensive numbers during the last 4 seasons. He’s constantly hit the ball laborious and minimized strikeouts. His bat velocity slowed in 2025, however a better proportion of these slower, extra managed swings led to squared up balls. And he swung an entire lot. Naylor’s finest offensive seasons correlate with larger swing charges, and this yr, his swing price ranked thirteenth amongst certified hitters.

However any issues about Naylor are much less about who he’s been and extra about who he may turn into. Some groups will have a look at his physique and assume it doesn’t have too many defensive innings left in it, and their bias in opposition to Wario-shaped athletes may make them imagine his getting old curve is extra of a cliff. However a extra developed workforce may see a participant who controls the barrel via the zone and makes good swing choices, one who, in his seventh yr within the majors, used his potential to dissect the sport to begin stealing bases regardless of missing foot velocity. These groups will see a participant who thinks deeply concerning the sport and understand that regardless that his physique won’t age nicely, the abilities that make him nice don’t rely on a physique in peak bodily type. – KO

Ben’s Take
Murakami is the newest NPB celebrity to go throughout the Pacific, and bidding frenzies have accompanied his compatriots every time. He’s not topic to the worldwide beginner bonus limits that capped the paydays for Shohei Ohtani and Roki Sasaki, which suggests the sky is the restrict. As a embellished house run hitter who hasn’t but turned 26, he’s the type of star groups dream about locking down. In consequence, Murakami’s deal goes to increase far into the longer term. I’ve pegged seven years right here, however an extended cope with a participant possibility or perhaps a shorter one with some type of sophisticated extension-esque kicker wouldn’t shock me both.

That mentioned, I believe that current expertise within the NPB market is making individuals overestimate Murakami’s prospects. Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed a report deal and received World Sequence MVP two years later. Ohtani is Ohtani. Sasaki had a horrible first yr, and but he’s gifted sufficient that the Dodgers used him as their nearer within the playoffs. Signing these well-known NPB stars has paid off handsomely, a minimum of to date. Murakami is a superb hitter, however I believe he’s meaningfully wanting these three by way of anticipated impression within the majors. I’m scared of his strikeout price, fairly frankly; NPB is a low-strikeout surroundings, and but he’s approached a 30% strikeout price in every of his final three seasons. He’s most likely headed for first base, although many groups will a minimum of nod in the direction of giving him a shot at third. I’m skeptical that he has the abilities to play a superb main league third base, however loads of defenders I didn’t assume might hack it have confirmed me unsuitable earlier than.

I believe that the probably consequence of a Murakami bidding battle entails groups stretching on years moderately than common annual worth. I’m anticipating the contract to offset threat for each side, probably by giving Murakami a participant possibility and groups some type of low-cost back-end in case he disappoints within the majors. There’s no solution to signify that on this specific sort of contract prediction setup, although, so simply think about a couple of bells and whistles on the projection I’ve listed right here.

Participant Notes
Murakami’s coronation as a central determine in Japanese baseball occurred in a short time; he was on a bullet prepare to nationwide fame in his late teenagers and early 20s. He spent only one season within the minors earlier than he had an immense 2019 breakout and received Rookie of the Yr. After that, Murakami lower his strikeout price throughout the subsequent three seasons and had a few of the finest single-year performances within the historical past of NPB. He received an MVP award and an Olympic gold medal in 2021, then had a Pantheon-level 10-WAR, 56-homer, Triple Crown marketing campaign in 2022. On the time, it seemed like he may turn into among the best all-around energy hitters on the planet.

After that, Murakami’s strikeout price spiked again into the 28% vary for every of the subsequent three seasons, and he’s by no means been fairly as dominant as he was in 2022. He nonetheless has profile-carrying left-handed energy, simply a 70 or 80 on the scouting scale, and he’s by no means hit fewer than 30 homers in any season throughout which he’s been completely wholesome. However there are scary underlying indicators surrounding Murakami’s contact potential which are one thing of a purple flag when projecting his MLB future. His contact price tanks in opposition to fastballs 93 mph and above (simply 63% since 2022) and, extra just lately, Murakami’s contact charges versus secondary pitches have additionally plummeted to close 50%.

MLB scouts and execs assume Murakami may want to alter his swing if he’s going to hit over right here. His fanatics assume he can accomplish that. In addition they assume Murakami’s well being observe report of late has impacted his efficiency. His 2024 season ended with a damaged toe, then he had offseason elbow surgical procedure, after which he tweaked an indirect early in 2025 and had a setback in a while; altogether, he missed roughly two thirds of the 2025 season. Some mixture of well being and mechanical adjustment may permit him to make extra contact, however both or each of these issues must occur for him to be a profitable huge league hitter; he received’t succeed if he’s solely making the speed of contact he was in 2025. Uncooked energy like this doesn’t precisely develop on timber, and groups with deep pockets are prone to be on Murakami as a high-ceiling challenge that they will extra simply take a threat on. – EL

Ben’s Take
Right here’s a good way to be taught concerning the going price for dingers. Suárez doesn’t supply a broad vary of abilities. He strikes out loads and doesn’t get on base at a excessive clip because of this. Defensively, he’s nicely previous his peak; a visit down the defensive spectrum appears imminent. He’s 34, the third-oldest hitter on this checklist and the one one ranked remotely this excessive. That’s all true – however he additionally hit 79 house runs mixed within the final two years. Yeah, that’ll play.

Would I signal Suárez to a long-term deal? Positively not. It always looks like he’s a yr away from decline; heck, Seattle wage dumped him earlier than the 2024 season after which re-acquired him on the deadline this yr. This sort of increase/bust sport feels prefer it might finish very messily; you’ll be able to hit with a 30% strikeout price, however most likely not with a 35% price, and he’s swinging and lacking greater than ever earlier than in pursuit of these candy, candy homers. I believe that may hold his eventual contract quick. However on that quick deal, I’d be completely satisfied to pay him like a star. Nobody will wish to get caught holding the bag, however everybody will need 50 homers in 2026. Excessive {dollars} over fewer years is the apparent compromise.

Participant Notes
Some hitters like to take care of their swing yr to yr, making solely minor changes. Others, like Suárez, are eager to make huge adjustments and let their our bodies work out the remaining. In 2023, his stance was primarily squared off to the pitcher, at 4 levels. Then he opened as much as 12 levels in 2024, earlier than opening up all the way in which to 24 levels this previous season. Suárez additionally narrowed his toes and moved up within the batter’s field, and commenced utilizing a Trajekt machine extra repeatedly. All of it helped him hit 49 house runs in 2025, almost matching his whole from the earlier two seasons mixed (52), though his first half was far superior to his second (140 wRC+ vs. 103 wRC+).

When Suárez is on, he’s harmful. The sport-breaking upside that we noticed at instances within the postseason is strictly why you need him. The one problem is that he’s not at all times on, and it’s laborious to know when it would all come crashing down. The slugger operates with a profile that doesn’t depart a lot room for error. He has backside decile whiff and strikeout charges, which is okay while you’re slapping greater than 40 homers, however the Mariners received a glimpse of the ugly after they acquired him on the commerce deadline. Suárez struck out over a 3rd of the time and had the ninth-worst xwOBA amongst certified hitters. And there’s a tradeoff to having as excessive an assault angle as he does. You’ll be able to and can launch, however you’re left susceptible on the prime of the zone. Suárez should proceed toeing the road and making changes – it’s who he’s. His profile makes essentially the most sense as a luxurious on a workforce with a superb offense, moderately than counting on him to be a centerpiece. – ER

Ben’s Take
Prepare for some whiplash as groups ponder Grisham. Two years in the past, the Padres traded him within the Juan Soto deal, roughly to get out of his contract. He was a fourth outfielder in 2024, and never a very good one. However he put his patience-and-power mixture to significantly better use in 2025 by sometimes attacking early within the depend, correcting a long-standing weak spot in opposition to pitchers who flooded the zone early. The outcome was a career-best batting line, but additionally one which seemed very sustainable; he hits the snot out of the ball, doesn’t chase a lot, and makes good contact within the strike zone.

The hardest a part of projecting Grisham is his protection, which has fallen from elite to iffy in heart discipline up to now few years. I believe a transfer to a nook is warranted; he has spectacular instincts and a nostril for the ball, however he’s simply not quick sufficient at full velocity to deal with heart anymore. A transfer to proper or left might flip him again right into a plus defender, and he’s positively nonetheless able to filling in for some time if the beginning heart fielder goes down.

Out of the pocket of 5 hitters round right here on the checklist, Grisham provides essentially the most defensive versatility however one of many worst bats of the group. Provided that groups have more and more been paying for offense in free company and discovering defensive worth of their farm methods, I believe that places him in the direction of the underside of this cluster, although simply forward of the man with essentially the most complicated projection of the bunch…

Participant Notes
Two ideas about Grisham: First, it’s cool to have a couple of professional heart fielders within the free agent combine this yr. Second, I don’t assume this is identical man from San Diego. I believe he’s been body-snatched.

Grisham seemed like a future star within the shortened 2020 season, when he posted a 122 wRC+ with terrific heart discipline protection and counting stats that might’ve put him near 30-30 over a full schedule. Then he forgot to hit, surviving three straight seasons of sub-.200 batting averages via the aforementioned protection and double-digit stroll charges.

This yr’s Grisham walked greater than ever (14.1% stroll price, with a .348 OBP) with a career-high 34 house runs. And there are apparent method adjustments to level to right here, together with a career-high pull air proportion of 23.5%, which compounded properly with the benefit of batting lefty in Yankee Stadium. However the best-in-baseball outfield vary has evaporated over Grisham’s two seasons in New York, leaving him to grade out as a below-average defender in 2025, for the primary time in his profession.

Grisham has, at one level or one other, displayed all 5 instruments within the majors, however it’s been 5 years since he had them abruptly. If he can ever run and hit on the identical time, he could possibly be the steal of this free agent class — particularly as he’s solely simply turning 29. However his profession path has been so bizarre and unpredictable that it’d be irresponsible to rank him larger. – MB

Ben’s Take
I badly misjudged Torres’ market final yr. I assumed that his age and manufacturing would advantage a multi-year pact someplace, however he signed a pillow contract with the Tigers, and fairly frankly, I’m questioning if he’ll find yourself with one other this yr. He’s not sufficient of an offensive pressure to disregard his defensive worth; guys like Torres, who’re 10% or so above league common with the bat, are nice if they will decide it and uninteresting in any other case. He’s been unhealthy on the center infield for years, although, which makes me assume that he’ll find yourself confined to a nook place earlier than lengthy, placing extra stress on his bat.

To be honest, he does a variety of stuff nicely offensively. His sense of the strike zone is immaculate, and he makes loads of contact when he swings. I really assume he’s gone too far in that route; his bat velocity has declined as his contact price has improved, and he’s at risk of getting into the kind of dying spiral my colleague Dan Szymborski mentioned earlier this yr. The general instruments are there, Torres simply hasn’t put them collectively constantly. Given the dearth of offensive distinction makers accessible this winter, I believe that potential will get Torres a deal much like Grisham’s, even when it requires groups doing just a little wishcasting on his offensive upside.

Participant Notes
Torres first hit the free agent market final offseason and there he stayed till signing a one-year, $15 million contract with Detroit in late December. The deal got here in nicely beneath the three to 5 years and $18 million AAV many anticipated. Not a lot has modified about Torres or his market during the last yr. He stays the one second baseman among the many Prime 50 (relying on how you are feeling about Bo Bichette’s long-term place), and although his offense did bounce again considerably after a down 2024, his energy stays depleted. As an alternative, Torres made beneficial properties by enhancing upon his already distinctive plate self-discipline. He lower his swing price, resulting in extra high quality contact and fewer whiffs. Nonetheless, his manufacturing fell off considerably in August and September. He significantly struggled in opposition to fastballs and his bat monitoring knowledge suggests a timing problem, although a sports activities hernia most likely performed a component.

With one other yr of comparable manufacturing within the books, groups might want to resolve how they really feel concerning the evolving form of that manufacturing. Do they belief within the first half numbers and a first-rate understanding of the strike zone, or do they level to a tough second half as proof of what’s to come back? Torres has confirmed himself able to getting proper following sustained slumps, however since he provides little worth on protection or the basepaths, he’s working inside skinny margins that make it unlikely he’ll ever get the large, multiyear deal gamers dream of once they make the majors. – KO

Ben’s Take
I might have had King loads larger if he hit free company final yr, however a down season, twice interrupted by damage, has launched uncertainty right into a beforehand slam dunk free company case. He’s now harm mainly each a part of his arm – finger damage in 2021, elbow damage in 2022, shoulder damage in 2025 – and solely has one full season of beginning to his identify. He was superior in that season, and he’s been unimaginable as a multi-inning reliever, however I don’t know how one can have a look at King’s profile and never fear about sturdiness.

One possibility is for King to just accept a qualifying supply, financial institution greater than $20 million, and check out free company once more subsequent winter. I believe that’s the probably consequence, in actual fact. King is in a wierd center floor the place the qualifying supply meaningfully impacts his prospects; nobody minds the draft decide price all that a lot once they’re signing a celebrity, and offers beneath $50 million in whole worth carry decrease penalties, however signing King would price most groups a fairly good draft decide. Thus, a brief deal that clears the QO hurdle and hopefully units him as much as attain free company after a wholesome 2026 might work for everybody.

Participant Notes
In 2024, a 29-year-old King lastly spent a full season beginning and was spectacular sufficient to garner down-ballot Cy Younger assist. His follow-up season didn’t go as nicely, as he made simply 15 begins as a result of bouts of shoulder and left knee irritation. When he did pitch, he was stored on such a brief leash that he averaged fewer than 5 innings per begin; apart from a two-hit, 110-pitch shutout in opposition to the Rockies on April 13, he reached the six-inning and 100-pitch thresholds simply as soon as apiece.

King did put up a 3.44 ERA, however each his FIP (4.42) and xERA (4.26) point out hassle beneath the floor. His strikeout price slipped three proportion factors relative to 2024, to 24.7%, whereas he served up full season profession highs in homers per 9 (1.47) and barrel price (11.4%). Each of these have loads to do with batters (particularly lefties) giving his four-seam fastball the piñata remedy; they hit .349 and slugged .814 in opposition to it — with a 32.3% barrel price! — although it did generate a 30% whiff price, remaining an efficient weapon when King threw it within the higher third of the zone or larger.

Whereas King’s season was a less-than-ideal platform without spending a dime company, he declined his finish of a $15 million mutual possibility. The Padres will probably problem him a $22.05 million qualifying supply, however he figures to say no that as nicely and seek for a blockbuster deal, significantly given a market the place many of the finest starters include main issues. – JJ

Ben’s Take
When you’re searching for bulk innings at an inexpensive price in 2026, Kelly is your man. Other than a shoulder pressure that price him half the 2024 season, he’s been fairly sturdy since returning to the US from a stint in Korea, and whereas his run prevention numbers aren’t otherworldly, they’re solidly above common. You may assume that I’m damning him with faint reward, however I’d argue that I’m praising him with faint damnation. If “not otherworldly” is the largest knock on a pitcher, there shall be groups lined up across the block to signal that man.

The large query isn’t whether or not Kelly may be part of your rotation in 2026 – a minimum of, until you’re the Dodgers. The query is what 2027 and later will appear like. He’s 37 and throws 92 mph; it’s not precisely a secure profile. It’s fairly straightforward to think about how this might go unsuitable. A tiny little bit of velocity decline, three unhealthy begins in a row in June, and all of a sudden the longer term might begin to really feel fairly rickety. That’s a worry, a minimum of to some extent, with each pitcher, however it’s particularly so with regards to older guys with out ridiculous stuff. If the way in which they succeed is totally on guile, the decline part can get bushy rapidly. Thus, I’ve Kelly down for a QO-like one yr deal that may give him an opportunity to hit free company once more if he’s good, however received’t price the signing workforce sooner or later if he’s cooked.

Participant Notes
Kelly has been sneaky good since returning stateside. Signed by the Arizona Diamondbacks in December 2018 following 4 seasons taking part in with the SK Wyverns of the KBO, Kelly has gone on to craft a 3.77 ERA over 172 begins comprising 1,008 1/3 innings. His 10 most up-to-date outings got here with the Texas Rangers, who acquired the veteran right-hander from the Snakes at this summer season’s commerce deadline for a trio of prospects.

Kelly is getting up there in years — the one time Tampa Bay Rays prospect celebrated his thirty seventh birthday final month — however there’s little proof to counsel that he’s over the hill. His 32 begins in 2025 had been tied for ninth most within the majors, whereas his 3.52 ERA ranked nineteenth amongst certified pitchers. These aren’t break-the-bank numbers by way of what he’ll obtain in provides this winter, however they’re greater than sufficient to make him a beautiful possibility for golf equipment in need of a middle-of-the-rotation addition, of which there are numerous.

Very like fellow free agent Chris Bassitt, Kelly is your consummate craftsman. Velocity-challenged by in the present day’s requirements (his 92-mph heater ranked within the sixteenth percentile) and using a various arsenal (six pitches), he’s cerebral by way of method. After I talked to him earlier this yr, Kelly informed me that he “must be good with what [he is] doing on the market on the mound.” Given his current observe report of success, Kelly profiles as a prudent free agent acquisition. – DL

Ben’s Take
A late entrant into this checklist, Imanaga hit free company after the Cubs declined a three-year membership possibility and Imanaga declined a participant possibility. He’ll certainly obtain a qualifying supply, and I really assume he’s a good wager to return to the Cubs. The twin sticking factors round his deal, in my view, had been its size and the truth that the Cubs would have additionally owed 15% of the membership choice to the Yokohama BayStars, the NPB workforce that posted Imanaga two years in the past.

With that contract now over and the specter of a QO hanging, a two-year deal appears proper for Imanaga. I believe he’ll get $20 million or so per yr, the going price for a superb however not overpowering starter. Imanaga’s 2025 doesn’t actually hit that mark. He misplaced a couple of ticks on his fastball, his secondaries couldn’t decide up the slack, and the outcome was a pointy decline in his strikeout price and its varied constituent bat-missing indicators. However his 2024 was actually good, and provided that he missed almost two months of the 2025 season with a hamstring damage, a bounce again feels totally cheap. His velo dipped significantly within the second half of the yr, for one factor, and his timing seemed off too.

That uncertainty really helps me peg Imanaga’s market. He’s too dangerous for a long-term deal to make sense. He’s additionally too good for a low-AAV deal to make sense. The qualifying supply provides an extra cap at $50 million in whole worth. As Sherlock Holmes mentioned, when you get rid of the inconceivable, no matter stays needs to be the reply. For me, that’s a two-year deal, most likely with some type of safety for each side on the second yr.

Ben’s Take
After Gallen’s résumé for about an hour, I got here to an apparent conclusion: I’m glad I’m not a significant league GM. I imply, what on this planet are you speculated to do right here? He seemed like a down-ballot Cy Younger sort for 3 straight seasons, however then became a pumpkin in his stroll yr. And we’re speaking actually unhealthy: Each ERA estimator was within the mid-4.00s, Gallen’s strikeout price plummeted, he barely missed any bats, and our Stuff fashions assume he soundly deserved his poor outcomes. Even scarier, they assume he really fell off a cliff in 2024, with the outcomes following a yr later.

Passing on Gallen may really feel much more silly in a yr’s time, although. He’s by no means wanted nasty stuff to get outcomes; he’s a command and deception man, and it’s totally possible {that a} change of surroundings and an offseason to regroup vaults him proper again as much as spectacular. He throws as laborious as ever, and having simply turned 30, it’s not like he’s going to crumble to mud tomorrow. I believe the probably contract is one that offers everybody a small victory. Gallen will get a two-year deal, most likely with some type of innings-based choose out, whereas the workforce signing him stays beneath $50 million in whole assured cash to keep away from triggering harsher draft decide penalties. If he’s nice in 2026, he can hit the market once more with no qualifying supply holding him again.

Participant Notes
Gallen was wholesome however typically underwhelming in 2025, ending with a career-worst ERA and FIP, to not point out his lowest strikeout price to this point. His second half was higher than his first, however there have been some negatives there as nicely; shedding a stroll per 9 is an efficient factor, however dropping a strikeout per 9 is most positively not. The drop in BABIP he skilled from the primary half to the second (.292 versus .242) can’t actually be attributed to something Gallen did, both; if I put the batters in opposition to knowledge into the ZiPS BABIP estimator and use Arizona’s protection, the pc anticipated a .288 BABIP within the first half and a .282 within the second.

Lacking bats has by no means been amongst Gallen’s finest attributes as a pitcher, however he’s misplaced 20% of his strikeout price from his peak, and he’s not a type of hurlers who seems to have a significant pitch-to-contact ability. All this being mentioned, there’s nonetheless upside right here. Gallen’s knuckle-curve continues to be adequate that he most likely received’t permit one other 9 house runs with it, and his repertoire provides him a variety of instruments to work with. He began utilizing his changeup much more in opposition to righties within the second half, which I believe is an efficient method, because it’s gotten a whiff price in opposition to righties that’s nearly as excessive as that of his slider.

Whereas there are positively issues about Gallen dropping from marginal ace standing, I don’t assume the questions are so vital that he’ll be shunned in free company. That mentioned, his state of affairs is additional sophisticated by the truth that Arizona held on to him on the deadline, that means he’s eligible for a qualifying supply. He’s positively nonetheless price a QO, however there are sufficient points right here that draft compensation might bitter a few of his potential suitors. I believe it’s fairly doable that Gallen indicators one thing like a two yr, $48 million with an opt-out clause. There should be groups, such because the Orioles, that shall be completely satisfied to go in on one thing like that. – DS

Ben’s Take
Imai is the very best pitcher heading stateside this yr, and it’s a minimum of controversial that his 2025 was extra spectacular than anybody else outdoors of the highest trio of arms. He posted a 1.92 ERA with peripherals to match for the Seibu Lions, and whereas offense is down in NPB, it’s not that down. He has strikeout stuff, he doesn’t stroll a ton of men, and he retains the ball within the ballpark extremely nicely given how a lot he’s already limiting all the pieces else. He has a bizarre pitch combine – splitter/changeup combos don’t develop on timber – however he might need 4 plus choices, and I believe he might need room to enhance on a number of of them. He’s nonetheless 27, and it’s fairly straightforward to think about him getting higher from right here given his profession trajectory.

I’ve Imai ranked right here as a result of NPB’s offense has gotten so bizarre that I’m skeptical of how issues will translate. The perfect gamers are clearly superior, however you’ll be able to’t simply take a fantastic ERA and port it over straight. Anthony Kay, who didn’t make my prime 50, posted a 1.76 ERA this yr, for instance. Primarily, I believe that Imai goes to get an even bigger deal than I’d give him: I can’t think about the bidding ending at fewer than 5 years given his age and outcomes, and it doesn’t harm that the previous few elite NPB starters have been spectacular within the majors. Put all the pieces collectively, and I anticipate some workforce to pay an quantity that makes them uncomfortable to safe his providers for the subsequent half-decade.

Participant Notes
Imai was the Lions’ 2016 first spherical select of a highschool in Utsunomiya Metropolis, a metro roughly the dimensions of Tucson that’s about 80 miles north of Tokyo. He spent a yr within the minors after which hopped proper into the Lions rotation as a 20-year-old in 2018. All through his early- and mid-20s, Imai was a walk-prone (however efficient) starter, after which took a step ahead as a strike-thrower and innings-eater in every of the subsequent three seasons, changing into one in every of NPB’s finest arms. Throughout the 2022-25 seasons, Imai halved his stroll price (from the 14% space to 7%), expanded his repertoire, and improved his fastball velocity at the same time as his innings depend grew north of 160 frames. He’s had 4 consecutive seasons with an ERA beneath 2.50 (even whereas he was wild), and in 2025, he posted a 1.92 ERA and a pair of.01 FIP.

And Imai won’t be performed enhancing. He has a free, whippy kind of athleticism that helps him generate huge, misleading arm velocity. He could also be a tweak away from having higher stuff than his already stable five-pitch combine. A nasty mid-80s slider with sharp two-planed motion carried out like a plus pitch in 2025 and is the very best of these choices.

You’ll be able to quibble with Imai’s relative lack of dimension (he’s listed at 5-foot-11) or facets of his supply, however he definitely appears to be like like a giant league starter from a uncooked stuff and athleticism standpoint. He’s demonstrated MLB starter-quality stamina and strike-throwing for the final a number of seasons, and he might conceivably take one other step ahead if even one side of his supply may be polished in his late 20s. The chaotic elements of an NPB-to-MLB transition (completely different baseball, routine adjustments, and so on.) create extra threat and variability in Imai’s forecast than that of the opposite tier-two free agent beginning pitchers on this class, however Imai has a roughly comparable ceiling because the Zac Gallen/Michael King group. – EL

Ben’s Take
Okamoto isn’t the identical type of taking pictures star expertise as Munetaka Murakami, however he’s been the higher hitter of the 2 nook infielders during the last three years. He hits for energy and common, not often strikes out, and constantly posts double-digit stroll charges in addition. When you loved the Blue Jays this October, he’s their type of hitter; he places the ball within the air lots and with authority, however his true standout ability is doing that with out piling up strikeouts. As Eric famous in his scouting report, Okamoto has additionally improved in opposition to excessive velocity fastballs up to now few years, which is a key level of failure for NPB hitters.

Nonetheless, let’s not get too loopy right here. We’re not essentially speaking about Alejandro Kirk as a 3rd baseman; I anticipate that Okamoto will strike out way more within the majors than he did in Japan, and he’s up there trying to do harm, not slap one the opposite means. His sport is doubles over dingers, however it’s a ton of each. It may additionally be extra first base than third, which I baked into my estimation. I’ve him down as a stable hitter (although not an overwhelmingly good one) who’s with out an apparent defensive house. I believe that may land him a four-year cope with some fancy bells and whistles for each him and the membership that indicators him. I’ve legitimately no clue which bells and whistles – however fortunately, that’s outdoors of the scope of this train.

Participant Notes
Okamoto has been one in every of NPB’s best energy hitters since 2018, and till 2024, he had had six straight seasons of clubbing 30 or extra house runs, together with a 2023 marketing campaign through which he hit 41 of them. It was at that time that public stories surfaced of MLB groups scouting Okamoto, stories which have continued all through the final two seasons, culminating in a looming posting this winter. Although he’s missed a while with damage (a sprained left elbow suffered throughout a collision price him half of 2025), Okamoto has generated the 2 lowest strikeout charges of his profession in 2024 (15.9%) and 2025 (11.3%), and slashed an unimaginable .327/.416/.598 (thanks partially to a career-high BABIP) in his platform season.

Okamoto’s most resonant abilities are his really feel for contact and his potential to time and pull the baseball, together with fastballs. That is particularly spectacular contemplating Okamoto hundreds his fingers very deep, virtually barring his entrance arm as he units up. However his wrists and fingers are fast and robust sufficient for him to get round on most pitch sorts and places, and pepper the left discipline line with laborious contact. For all NPB hitters, publicity to premium velocity is available in a small pattern on a year-to-year foundation. That’s very true for Okamoto, who carried out dramatically higher than earlier than in opposition to 94-plus mph in 2025, however in solely half a season’s taking part in time. Okamoto’s splits in opposition to laborious fastballs are favorable. He has an 84% contact price in opposition to all pitches 94 mph and above mixed the final three seasons, in comparison with a 78% contact price general.

As a result of Okamoto is so geared to tug, he does make some concessions in opposition to well-located secondary pitches away from him, although none of his splits in opposition to any specific pitch sort are particularly scary, and his regular chug of improved contact over the previous few years makes him much less bust-prone. He tracks pitches nicely, strikes the barrel across the zone (particularly the higher half), and is a fairly secure bat-to-ball “prospect” for an NPB participant. He lacks the sunshine tower energy of a celebrity nook infielder, however he ought to hit sufficient to profile as an everyday regardless of below-average protection at third base. – EL/JF

Ben’s Take
The Mets look like the clear favorites to land Edwin Díaz, which implies that Suarez goes to be fielding a variety of calls from groups that badly want a fantastic reliever. He simply opted out of his cope with the Padres, and he’s coming off of two straight years of elite outcomes. As you’ll see shortly, there aren’t another confirmed relievers presently pitching nicely, which suggests if you need a brand new nearer in 2026 and you may’t afford to have your new rent take some time getting in control, it’s Suarez or a clearly inferior possibility. In consequence, I believe that he’s going to get a deal that’s nicely forward of each participant beneath him on this checklist. In different phrases, that is the large break level in these rankings. I solely have one participant beneath him getting three or extra years, and I even have him down for $14 million greater than anybody after him.

Now, are there purple flags? Completely. Suarez goes to show 35 simply after Opening Day, he depends closely on velocity, and he’s so fastball-dominant that any lack of form might make him shockingly hittable in a single day. However closers with no purple flags mainly don’t exist, and definitely not in free company. Groups attempting to signal Suarez aren’t evaluating him to Mariano Rivera or something; they’re evaluating him to what they’ve available, and for most likely 20 groups in baseball, their finest present possibility was worse than Suarez this yr. I’m anticipating somebody to provide him a deal the place the ultimate yr feels painful and borderline irresponsible, as a result of good relievers are phenomenally essential within the playoffs, and Suarez completely matches the invoice.

Participant Notes
Suarez enters free company with a three-season observe report as a high-leverage reliever and outcomes about as constant as they arrive. He had a down yr in 2023, however solely pitched within the second half of the season after lacking the primary half as a result of elbow irritation. Since then, Suarez has logged two seasons with a minimum of 65 innings pitched and a sub-75 ERA-. He falls wanting the Elite Nearer standing, however he’s been excellent, nonetheless.

As with all free agent reliever, volatility is a priority, particularly since Suarez shall be getting into his age-35 season. However Suarez is a little bit of a throwback by way of method, which makes troubleshooting any potential points sooner or later an easier activity. He throws two high-spin fastballs — a four-seamer and a sinker — at 98 mph and enhances them with a changeup at 90 mph. He’s not doing something fancy, like tunneling a breaking ball off his heater or manipulating seam-shifted wake. He’s various location and messing with timing whereas throwing gasoline. What’s extra, the hitter’s notion of that top-end velocity is amped up even additional by his 81st-percentile extension. And regardless of reaching his mid-30s, his velocity is holding regular, as is his potential to find his pitches. He allowed extra stable contact in 2025 relative to prior seasons and his anticipated stats counsel he might have loved some batted ball luck, so Suarez is not any positive factor, however for groups trying to the free agent marketplace for bullpen assist, he’s no riskier than another late-inning reliever. – KO

Ben’s Take
Yeah, like I mentioned, the relievers behind Suarez all have some warts. For Williams, the wart is his weird 2025 season. He received traded to the Yankees earlier than the yr and for no matter motive, he by no means actually received going. His stuff? Nonetheless outrageous. PitchingBot, our in-house pitch modeling system, has given his “airbender” changeup an 80 out of 80 in every of the final six years. It’s an outlier, one in every of one. He struck out 35% of opposing batters and posted his lowest stroll price since 2020. This man is without doubt one of the least solvable relievers in the complete world.

In some way, although, he additionally posted a 4.79 ERA and misplaced the nearer job. I’m actually at a loss as to why. He didn’t surrender a ridiculous variety of homers. He didn’t get wrecked by contact; his .296 BABIP allowed is worse than his profession common, however it’s not unhealthy. He simply appeared to both throw an ideal inning or get shelled. Possibly he was tipping pitches; he was far worse with runners on base. Possibly he simply couldn’t deal with taking part in in New York, although I’m skeptical of that argument on the whole. Both means, he was flat out unhealthy this yr regardless of unimaginable peripherals, and I believe he’s going to get a deal that displays the truth that he’s no lock to be a better out of the gate in 2026. I believe he’ll snap out of it, and I might be completely satisfied to provide him a multi-year deal speculatively, however I can’t think about preferring him to Suarez if I had been attempting to make the playoffs subsequent season.

Participant Notes
I’m pretty assured that Williams continues to be among the best relievers in baseball. That mentioned, there’s no query that he’s liable to command points, and people points led to his unicorn changeup getting hit far more than it ever has earlier than for a stable chunk of the season. The .291 xwOBA hitters notched in opposition to it was the best of his profession. He could also be flappable, however he’s nonetheless received the juice. The hole between his 2.68 FIP and 4.79 ERA is the simplest protection of that, however to assist the notion additional, hitters chased extra when going through him this season than that they had throughout another in his profession. His zone contact price was equivalent to the earlier two seasons. He’s nonetheless an excellent, very efficient reliever with the type of stuff that makes hitters appear like child deer, even when he’s completely different than he was earlier than.

Williams’ arm angle has fallen yearly since his rookie season, and it reached a profession low of 18.8 levels by the tip of 2025. The drop hasn’t coincided with any huge adjustments in his motion profile, however it’s very doable that it impacted his deception, his really feel for location, and/or the way in which his pitches tunnel with one another. By late summer season, he appeared to have adjusted to his new actuality. His places shifted additional to his arm aspect, and he settled into being his dominant self once more, an enchancment that carried into the playoffs. It’s nice to see that he was capable of determine it out mid-season and be adaptable, even when there’s a layer of volatility to his profile that wasn’t there earlier than 2025. – ER

Ben’s Take
Like Williams, Helsley went to New York in 2025 and fell aside. In contrast to Williams, his peripheral numbers just about inform the story. His strikeout price dipped, his stroll price ballooned, and he surrendered louder contact. It doesn’t clarify a 7.20 ERA in his two months with the Mets, however sprinkle in some pitch tipping and a few unhealthy sequencing, and ERA can get ugly fairly rapidly. The query for buying groups isn’t what occurred in 2025; it’s whether or not he’ll repeat it in 2026.

That’s unknowable, however my learn is that he’ll find yourself in the identical class as Williams, a fantastic reliever and potential back-of-the-bullpen possibility, however one whose current type guidelines out a long-term deal. Relievers are maddeningly troublesome to foretell, with the elite ones of in the present day the mop-up males of tomorrow, which limits the size of their contracts at the very best of instances. I don’t see how anything might transpire right here. The contours of that second yr – vesting, assured, participant possibility, buyout, and so on. – will rely on how groups parse Helsley’s 2025 marketing campaign, however I don’t assume a 3rd yr is probably going in any case.

Participant Notes
Helsley was chosen within the fifth spherical of the 2015 draft out of Division II Northeastern State (they’re the Riverhawks) and developed as a starter (paralleling fellow 2015 draftee Jordan Hicks) till 2019, when he debuted within the majors as a reliever. He has remained one ever since. He turned the Cardinals’ nearer, and at his finest has been one of many nastier relievers in baseball, sitting 99 mph and bending in one of many sport’s finest sliders en path to a few years with a Okay% north of 35%.

Helsley actually broke out in 2022, when he skilled a two-tick velo bump and his slider started taking part in like a really elite pitch. Since that season, Helsley ranks sixth in WAR and ERA amongst relievers with a minimum of 200 innings pitched, whereas additionally being seventh in Okay% and 14th in WHIP. His ERA and FIP had been comfortably beneath 3.00 within the 2022-2024 window, earlier than spiking this yr. The Cardinals traded Helsley to the Mets on the deadline, and he actually struggled in August and September, posting a 7.20 ERA and 5.19 FIP whereas surrendering 4 house runs, as many as he had in all of 2023 and 2024 mixed (and matching his first half whole). On the finish of August, he informed Will Sammon of The Athletic that he thought he was tipping his pitches.

There was just about no dip in Helsley’s stuff in 2025, he was simply uncharacteristically homer-prone. Regardless of a reasonably checkered damage historical past early in his profession (he had shoulder stuff as a prospect and rookie, a stress response in his elbow in 2021, and a forearm pressure in 2023), he’s been sturdy for the final two seasons and is displaying no indicators of slowing down at age 31. He’d be a set-up man or nearer on most groups. – EL

Ben’s Take
The final of this group of 4 relievers can be essentially the most fascinating case. Rogers positively doesn’t “look the half.” He throws underhand, with velo within the 80s. By way of run prevention, although, he’s been among the best within the enterprise for half a decade. The juxtaposition between look and outcomes is matched by the combined indicators the market has despatched Rogers. He received a late begin and by no means actually hit a giant arbitration payday; in 2025, his final yr of arb, he was paid $5.25 million. Alternatively, the Mets despatched a robust bundle of gamers for Rogers on the deadline, they usually handled him like a key reliever down the stretch.

With no significant platoon splits and an elite potential to generate grounders, Rogers is the best fireman. He can parachute into any state of affairs and possess helpful abilities for the duty, and due to his low-effort supply, he can pitch a ton; he’s topped 70 innings in every of the final 5 years. It’s positively unsettling to make use of Rogers in high-leverage conditions. He’s simply tossing it in there, and boy does it look bizarre! However no matter what it appears to be like like, you’ll be able to’t argue with the outcomes. I believe that’ll get Rogers a two-year deal that greater than doubles his profession earnings.

Participant Notes
I’ve to confess to having a long-standing fetish for sidearmers and submariners. Pitcher was my finest place in Little League, and with none knowledge to make use of as proof, I wager that I could have been the one Gen-Xer or elder millennial child to mannequin their windup after Terry Leach, not Dwight Gooden or Roger Clemens or Nolan Ryan. So I’ve a pure bias in the direction of Rogers, such that he’s often on my roster in MLB The Present.

Rogers doesn’t miss bats, and his velocity peaks within the low 80s, however he survives by being one of many uncommon pitchers who shrugs at batters making a variety of contact off him. They not often hit him laborious, and once they do, it’s largely straight into the bottom. Of the pitchers with a minimum of 50 balls hit 95 mph or tougher in 2025, solely Tim Hill had a decrease common launch angle (two levels vs. three for Rogers).

It additionally helps that Rogers doesn’t undergo the platoon splits that you just see from a variety of sidewinding pitchers, which may restrict their wider utility. Whereas he doesn’t whiff lefties together with his sinker, they’ve discovered that pitch nearly inconceivable to drive until Rogers makes a mistake. And his rising slider is a spotlight reel generator. Rogers isn’t prone to get a better job in 2026 and he shines essentially the most on a workforce with a superb infield protection, however he should be stable in most setup roles. – DS

Participant Notes
From 2022 to 2024, Bader ranked seventh amongst heart fielders in fielding run worth whereas working a wRC+ of 80. That’s a invaluable complementary piece, which is why the Twins introduced him in to tackle the busiest understudy function in baseball in 2025, backing up Byron Buxton. Issues didn’t go as deliberate, although in a great way. First, Buxton stayed wholesome and productive. Second, Bader actually hit. He performed in left and moved to Philadelphia when the Twins threw in the complete linen closet on the deadline. He completed with a 122 wRC+ and put up a career-high 3.2 WAR.

The thought of a Harrison Bader who swings a harmful bat is tempting, however the underlying numbers deal with that notion the way in which Gallagher handled watermelons. Bader’s .359 BABIP was one of many highest in baseball. Amongst gamers with a minimum of 350 plate appearances, the 43-point drop-off from his wOBA to his xwOBA was the very highest. His 89 DRC+ was the second-lowest of his complete profession. He didn’t all of a sudden begin chasing much less, making extra contact, hitting the ball tougher, or lifting and pulling.

The excellent news is that even in his age-31 season, Bader confirmed nice velocity, placing up a dash velocity of 28.8 toes per second. He’s a couple of years faraway from possessing elite velocity, however he’s nonetheless quick sufficient to go and get it in heart. Simply don’t anticipate him to hit prefer it’s 2025. – DA

Participant Notes
When O’Hearn was featured right here at FanGraphs again in late Could, the primary sentence of the piece acknowledged that he had been “the very best hitter on an underachieving Baltimore Orioles workforce.” That largely remained true (ditto the disappointing Orioles a part of the equation), because the late-blooming first baseman/DH went on to complete his 2025 Baltimore tenure with a 135 wRC+ over 361 plate appearances. O’Hearn wasn’t almost nearly as good after switching coasts on the commerce deadline. Swapped to San Diego in an eight-player deal, he put up a stable but unspectacular 112 wRC+ in 183 plate appearances with the Padres. All informed, his 2025 output included a career-high 17 house runs and a 127 wRC+, in addition to 3.0 WAR.

What needs to be anticipated of the left-handed slugger going ahead? Furthermore, simply how a lot worth does a 32-year-old first baseman/DH — one who primarily performs in opposition to opposite-handed pitchers — have relative to what it’s going to price to convey him on board? He’s been productive since leaving Kansas Metropolis and seeing markedly extra motion, however on the identical time, the 15 house runs, 121 wRC+, and a pair of.0 WAR that he’s averaged during the last three seasons is sweet, not nice.

Numbers apart, O’Hearn’s repute as a clubhouse asset is an intangible that suitors will definitely take into account. It is usually price noting that worth for {dollars} spent is, in some ways, depending on the workforce writing the checks. O’Hearn goes to receives a commission. – DL

Participant Notes
Forward of his tenth season as a giant league common, Polanco modified his hitting man, closed his stance, tweaked his assault angle and had a career-best offensive marketing campaign by wRC+ (132). Higher but for groups hoping to journey the wave, it was backloaded, as Polanco hit .282/.348/.551 after July 1. And it was undergirded by the very best common and max exit velocity of his profession, in addition to the very best hard-hit price (45.8%). The switch-hitter’s minuscule 15.6% strikeout price not solely arrested a three-year acceleration development, however almost lower his 2024 determine (29.2%) in half.

That’s all nice, however a wholesome Polanco has often been a plus hitter. What’s new is the extent of positional uncertainty in his profile.

Polanco made 87 begins at DH for the Mariners in 2025 in comparison with 39 within the discipline, and his well being historical past could be sufficient trigger for it even when his fielding metrics weren’t underwater. Polanco had surgical procedure to restore the patellar tendon in his left knee on the shut of the 2024 season, permitting Seattle to pounce on him as a buy-low possibility. Previous to that, two surgical procedures on his proper ankle – the final of which got here after the 2020 season – precipitated his transfer off shortstop throughout his Twins tenure. He’s made a handful of appearances at third during the last three seasons, however didn’t make the kind of fast impression to sign it as an apparent answer.

Polanco hits too nicely to not be an everyday on a multi-year deal someplace in his age-32 season (he declined a 2026 participant possibility), however his protection and damage historical past would require a moderately particular match. – JF

Participant Notes
We had been fairly excessive on Kim final offseason, and for good motive: He’s a median hitter general who’ll make good contact, take a stroll, steal a base, and play good-to-great protection at a number of infield positions. The Rays don’t spend huge on free brokers fairly often, however they gave Kim a contract price $13 million in 2025, with a participant possibility for 2026.

They usually didn’t get a lot for it. Kim began the season with a shoulder damage that stored him on the IL till July, and he suited up for Tampa Bay simply 24 instances earlier than the Rays put him on waivers. Kim completed the yr as a big a part of the Braves’ “We’re not making the playoffs and everybody’s harm, so let’s strive some stuff” experiment. And he was OK, hitting .253/.316/.368 in 24 video games.

Kim’s lengthy observe report of doing the fundamentals nicely makes him an instantaneous improve at second base or shortstop for about half the league, together with various groups that purpose to make the playoffs. However the market wasn’t precisely white-hot for him final winter; now he’s a yr older, coming off a severe damage and an underwhelming offensive season. – MB

Participant Notes
Realmuto turned 34 this previous March. He’s the one catcher in baseball to spend greater than 5,000 innings on the place over the previous 5 years. Over the previous decade, he’s caught 24% extra innings than anybody else within the main leagues. He’s spent extra time behind the plate than Lard-Ass from Stand by Me. The Phillies talked a giant sport about easing Realmuto’s workload this previous season, changing Vibes Man Garrett Stubbs with an actual backup in Rafael Marchán. Realmuto nonetheless led the league in innings caught.

Realmuto is clearly getting old. From 2018 to 2022, he posted a 118 wRC+ and averaged 19 homers a yr. This previous season, he had a 94 wRC+ and hit simply 12 homers. He slugged beneath .400 for the primary time since his 11-game callup in 2014. His glove, which peaked at 15 to 18 runs per yr above common, was seven runs beneath common in 2025. The times of constant five-win manufacturing are clearly not coming again; Realmuto has been price both 2.0 or 2.1 WAR in every of the previous three seasons, and I might not wager on that development reversing itself in his late 30s.

He’s nonetheless the very best free agent catcher available on the market by a rustic mile. – MB

Participant Notes
It is a soon-to-be 35-year-old who has performed 14 innings of outfield protection within the final three years, so there are some decline indicators to debate. Ozuna’s 2025 (.232/.355/.400, 114 wRC+) was a pronounced step again from the 2 years that preceded it, which had been the very best of his profession. It’s not simply that he barely hit greater than half (21) as many homers as the 2 years earlier than (40, 39), he additionally misplaced almost 9 proportion factors on his hard-hit price (44.4%). His usually prodigious all-fields juice was largely resigned to the pull aspect, his annual immolation of fastballs slipped (he slugged a mere .474 in opposition to them) as he turned radically extra passive within the zone, and Statcast had Ozuna dropping a tick of bat velocity and producing fewer impression swings.

Not that older gamers are recognized for shrugging off accidents and by no means being troubled by them once more, however Ozuna was taking part in via a “tear” in his proper hip in 2025, which might have been closely answerable for the content material of the previous paragraph. His unusual new passivity on the dish additionally supplied conventional advantages, like extra contact to associate with the best stroll (15.9%) and lowest chase (21.9%) charges of his profession. And Ozuna’s anticipated numbers (.366 xwOBA) represented a extra delicate decline from his 2024 fourth-place NL MVP end than he really skilled.

Over the previous three years, Ozuna has hit the ninth-most homers within the sport and owns a barely higher wRC+ (137) than fellow free agent DH Kyle Schwarber (135), however that model of him isn’t essentially the one hitting the market. – JF

Participant Notes
Relievers may be risky season-to-season, and that’s very true when the pitcher in query’s accompanying observe report is extra mixed-bag than Mr. Reliable. Keller’s résumé resembles that of the previous, which makes him an particularly intriguing candidate on this yr’s free agent class. A former starter who battled Thoracic Outlet Syndrome earlier than being signed off the scrap heap by the Chicago Cubs in January, Keller got here into the yr having logged a 5.18 ERA over the previous 4 campaigns. Rejuvenated by a return to full well being and a possibility with a brand new workforce, he proceeded to noticed off bats. Having fun with a career-best season, Keller got here out of the bullpen 68 instances to the tune of a 2.07 ERA and a 2.93 FIP.

His 27.2% strikeout price was meaningfully larger than his 17.1% profession mark coming into the marketing campaign. Elevated velocity performed a component in that. Throwing each a four-seamer and a two-seamer, Keller averaged 97.1 mph together with his heaters, whereas final season that quantity was simply 93.7. Now not only a hunter of floor balls, he’s now a pitcher who misses bats.

Any expectation that Keller will stay a short-stint reliever comes with a caveat. Whereas he thrived in that function in 2025, he might probably return to the rotation. Requested about that risk late within the yr, he informed me that whereas he’s been completely satisfied working as a reliever, he additionally loves beginning. That topic might come up as he explores his choices. – DL

Participant Notes
Iglesias posted his highest ERA (3.21) and FIP (3.31) since 2019 in a season so uneven that he quickly misplaced his job as nearer. Via June 5, he served up seven homers in 24 innings, blew 4 of 12 save alternatives, and was torched for a 6.75 ERA and 5.72 FIP. To that time, his slider was getting hammered, accounting for 5 of these homers as batters hit .583 and slugged 1.833 in opposition to the pitch, which he was throwing 13.5% of the time.

Iglesias didn’t totally ditch the slider, however he dialed its utilization all the way down to 7.5% whereas relying extra on his four-seamer. The outcomes had been night time and day; from June 9 (the beginning of what turned out to be a three-week stretch in a setup function) via the tip of the season, he allowed only one homer in 43.1 innings whereas posting a 1.25 ERA and 1.98 FIP and changing 21 of twenty-two save probabilities; his strikeout price shot from 23.1% to 30.4%. Over his remaining 26 2/3 innings from July 28 onward, he allowed only one run and 11 hits whereas putting out 27 and strolling simply six.

So it could appear Iglesias is again to being a dependable ninth-inning possibility, albeit an getting old one whose common four-seam velocity dipped from 95.5 mph to 94.8. He’s by no means been the flashiest nearer, however the variety of playoff groups with ninth-inning query marks suggests he’ll discover work. – JJ

Participant Notes
It retains pouring on Brandon Woodruff, and Brandon Woodruff retains splashing via the puddles. After lacking many of the 2023 season with shoulder irritation, Woodruff missed the complete 2024 season with a torn capsule in that very same shoulder, then suffered a lat pressure just some weeks after he lastly returned in 2025. He’s made simply 23 begins and thrown 131 2/3 innings over the previous three seasons. However in these 23 begins, he’s gone 12-3 with a 2.73 ERA and three.39 FIP. In 2025, he ran the best strikeout price and lowest stroll price of his complete profession.

Woodruff’s fastball velocity was down in a giant means this yr, dropping from 95.9 mph in 2023 to 93 mph. That’s an enormous deal for anybody, however it’s even greater for a man who throws both a fastball or a cutter a whopping 78% of the time. It’s laborious to know the way a lot of that velocity Woodruff might get again subsequent yr, when he’s – fingers and all the pieces else crossed – absolutely wholesome. He’ll be 33 and the damage historical past is frightening, however he’s performed nothing however pitch nicely, even with the diminished velo. Somebody’s received to take an opportunity that one of many higher pitchers within the sport can carry on pitching nicely, proper? Proper? – DA

Participant Notes
Bassitt has posted a minimum of 2 WAR in each full season since 2019. He has been as constant as you possibly can ask for. His 3.96 ERA, 4.01 FIP and 170 innings throughout 31 begins in 2025 are a testomony to that consistency, which is a credit score to him at the same time as his stuff has taken a step again. When you plot a time sequence chart of his velocity, motion, and site during the last seven seasons, you’ll see the adjustments. Bassitt has misplaced a couple of ticks, modified his arm slot fairly considerably from his basic over-the-top mechanics, and turn into extra inclined to the platoon benefit.

As a result of Bassitt has dropped his arm slot a bit, his two most dear pitches over the course of his profession (his sinker and curveball) have additionally modified. When you drop your arm slot, the identical grip you’ve at all times used can lead to an altered motion profile. Take Bassitt’s curveball. It’s dropping lower than it ever has, however it has gained arm-side motion. That juxtaposes with how the change has affected his sinker, which helps clarify lefties having extra success in opposition to him. Bassitt had league common vertical motion for his complete profession till this season. Now the sinker falls off tougher, and he makes use of it extra in opposition to right-handed hitters than he ever has. The speed tendencies aren’t superb, however Bassitt continues to be limiting laborious contact. The artful righty could also be in a brand new stage of his profession, however he has confirmed he can regulate with father time. – ER

Participant Notes
Giolito made his 2025 debut in late April following rehab from a UCL restore in January of 2024. He went on to put up an 80 ERA-, suggesting an above-average efficiency, however as Michael Baumann wrote again in September, his prime line outcomes present cowl for some fairly ugly underlying metrics. Take into account the precise batting common and wOBA he allowed (.236 and .301) in comparison with the anticipated numbers primarily based on contact high quality (.274 and .353), which push his xERA to five.01, versus the three.41 ERA he really posted. And sadly, Giolito is just not a type of pitchers who routinely outperforms his anticipated stats.

As Baumann famous when contrasting Giolito’s 2025 season to 2021 (the final time he posted a sub-4.00 ERA), all three of his major pitches suffered from diminished stuff this yr, main hitters to chase much less on pitches outdoors the zone and whiff much less general; consequently, Giolito noticed an eight percentage-point drop in his strikeout price coupled with a spike in his laborious contact. It’s doable he’s nonetheless rounding again into type following surgical procedure, and that this model of Giolito is just not the pitcher he shall be shifting ahead. And provided that his arm angle has dropped 5 or 6 levels over the previous few years, a couple of mechanical tweaks may be all he must get again on observe. For now, Giolito profiles as a back-end starter with appreciable upside, but additionally one with no assure that he’ll be capable of replicate his 2025 outcomes. – KO

Participant Notes
In an earlier remark, I discussed that I’d picked Ranger Suárez as a result of I felt strongly about him. I picked Arraez for the alternative motive. I don’t have the faintest thought how a entrance workplace would go about valuing a participant like him (a phrase I most likely ought to have averted, as a result of there isn’t a such factor as one other participant like him).

In 2025, over 154 video games and 675 plate appearances, Arraez swung and missed simply 65 instances. These are slow-pitch softball numbers, and from 2022 to 2023, Arraez rode that absurd contact potential to a .335 batting common, a 131 wRC+ and 6.1 WAR. However over the previous two years, the dividends from this method have dwindled. Arraez is strolling and putting out lower than ever, however he’s additionally hitting the ball softer than ever. He’s run a mixed 107 wRC+ over the previous two seasons, and since he’s a defensive legal responsibility even at first base, he’s put up simply 2.0 whole WAR.

That’s not significantly near even common manufacturing.

Arraez is getting into his age-29 season, and that is his first crack at free company. He’s received a variety of baseball left in him. Contemplating his profession .329 BABIP, it appears protected to imagine that his 2025 mark of .289 was one thing of an aberration. However Arraez wants an awfully huge bounce-back to turn into a three-win participant once more. Whoever indicators him might want to possess some confidence that they will discover a solution to nudge his one-of-a-kind method in the best route. – DA

Participant Notes
For the final handful of years, Jansen has struck me as one of many final of his form. He was one of some catchers within the league who spent most of their time in a conventional stance, eschewing the one-knee down development that has swept the majors. Between that, the tape he wears on each wrists, and his lack of batting gloves, you possibly can have plopped Jansen into the ‘80s or ‘90s, and he would have match proper in. However this season, Jansen received with the instances, utilizing the knee-down method at a league common clip of 95%.

Jansen has at all times been one of many higher blockers within the sport, however the framing? Not a lot. His receiving abilities have been trending within the unsuitable route for the previous few seasons. The Rays advocated for the knee down method to assist him out, because it usually facilitates improved framing, however it appeared to speed up Jansen’s decline as a substitute. He was one of many worst catchers by framing runs this season, largely deteriorating on his glove aspect and at backside of the zone. As a league common bat, Jansen has the profile to be a beginning catcher if his protection, particularly his framing, is first rate. With out that, it’s extra probably he’ll be considered as a part-time man with a a lot smaller share. – ER

Participant Notes
Caratini is a perfect part-time catcher, a seasoned professional who not solely received’t kill you together with his bat, however will really add one thing on the plate. In his two-year stint in Houston, he received on base at a formidable .329 clip. Catchers as an entire ran a .305 OBP in 2025. Think about what backup catcher statistics appear like. He doesn’t hit for a lot energy, however so what? He had double digit homers as a backup catcher; the dearth of energy is relative to league common, not relative to the cohort of men he’ll be in comparison with. He’s a revered veteran and trusted sport caller, private catcher for years to Yu Darvish, the person of one million pitches.

Is he previous his peak? Is there threat of a complete WAR collapse? In all probability. Caratini is 32 and his defensive numbers are down throughout the board, at all times a scary signal. You most likely can’t anticipate the OBP to hold all the way in which over, both; age and regression come for us all. However for a yr, at a backup’s wage? It’s all concerning the framing. Relative to the opposite choices for groups who need a succesful backup catcher, Caratini is one in every of solely two actual decisions, together with Danny Jansen. I believe meaning he’ll get the usual good backup catcher deal, most likely at a spot the place he needs to play given what number of groups might use him. – BC

Participant Notes
Ponce was Milwaukee’s second rounder means again in 2015 out of Division-II Cal Poly Pomona and was developed as a starter till the center of 2018, when he turned a protracted reliever. The next yr, Ponce was despatched to Pittsburgh in change for Jordan Lyles, and although he exhausted rookie eligibility as a Pirate, he by no means actually grabbed maintain of a task (he has simply 55.1 huge league innings to his identify), and in 2022, he departed for Japan. Ponce didn’t get significantly better overseas till 2025, when he transitioned from NPB to the KBO, dramatically improved his conditioning, added two ticks to his fastball, and commenced to dominate hitters with a extra split-looking offspeed pitch than earlier than. He had a 1.89 ERA in an unimaginable 180 2/3 innings, struck out 36% of opponents and walked simply 6%, and even on the very finish of October, he was parked within the 94-97 mph vary throughout Hanwha’s playoff run.

There are all types of indicators right here (particularly the change in Ponce’s physicality, and the stamina he’s had throughout almost 200 innings while you consider his playoff begins) to counsel that this enchancment is actual, and that Ponce can match into a superb workforce’s rotation. He’ll bump 98, his curveball has beautiful depth, his finest splitters fall off the desk, and he instructions the identical upper-80s cutter we noticed from him whereas he was stateside. It’s believable that his curveball high quality will dip with an MLB ball (there’s a minimum of some volatility to that a part of his sport), however Ponce’s pure stuff appears to be like higher than Erick Fedde’s did when he came visiting on a two-year, $15 million deal a few years in the past. – EL

Participant Notes
Armstrong has pitched for eight main league groups and been designated for project seven instances; he didn’t get pleasure from a full huge league season till he was 28. His breakout 2023 marketing campaign with Tampa Bay (1.38 ERA in 52 innings) didn’t gradual the churn, as in typical Rays vogue, he was flipped to the Cardinals for Dylan Carlson on the 2024 deadline after which was DFA’d twice extra earlier than the shut of that yr. It’s on a humble one-year, $1.125 million contract with the Rangers that Armstrong racked up a 2.31 ERA in a career-high 74 innings, recorded a career-high 9 saves whereas working in a wide range of roles, and accrued roughly 30% of his profession WAR (4.6) in a single season (1.4).

At first, a seek for Armstrong’s signature ability feels fruitless. It’s not fairly lacking bats (26.1% Okay%) as a result of it definitely isn’t producing chases (23.3%). It may be homer suppression (5 allowed in 2025), however he doesn’t get grounders (35.9%). Tons of strikes (58.9% zone price) at common velocity (93-94 mph) could be an atypical calling card for a high-leverage reliever.

As an alternative, Armstrong’s standout characteristic is a brand new sweeper that adheres to nominative determinism. No sweeper in baseball drops much less, which retains it uniquely on aircraft with a coffer of fastball shapes that lack outlier vertical motion. Restricted to cameo appearances earlier than final yr, Armstrong threw the mid-80s breaker almost a fourth of the time in 2025 and noticed huge league hitters bat .080 in opposition to it with a .120 slugging proportion. Discovering a Stuff mannequin that doesn’t love a bizarre sweeper is as widespread as eyewitness sightings of The Easter Bunny, so there needs to be many groups satisfied that Armstrong can deal with the eighth inning, or maybe just a little extra. – JF

Participant Notes
Pitching for the Angels, his third workforce in 4 seasons since departing the Dodgers in free company, Jansen posted a 2.59 ERA, his lowest mark since 2021, whereas changing 29 saves in 30 probabilities. Beneath the hood, nevertheless, he confirmed some warning indicators. He struck out a career-low 24.4% of hitters and served up his highest house run price since 2019 (1.22 per 9), in addition to his highest common exit velocity (91.5 mph) and hard-hit price (44.6%). Thus he ended up together with his highest FIP since 2018 (3.98), and highest xERA of the Statcast period (3.78).

Jansen’s cutter stays rattling good, justifying his resolution to emphasise it as a substitute of his sinker; he threw the cutter 81.6% of the time, down from 84.1% in 2024 however a considerably larger price than in the course of the 2019–23 span. Batters hit simply .163, slugged .300, and whiffed 25.2% of the time in opposition to the pitch. In addition they went 2-for-27 with a 25% whiff price in opposition to his slider, although he threw it simply 7% of the time.

In different phrases, Jansen can nonetheless pitch, and has milestones on the horizon that would cement his legacy; with three saves, he’ll surpass Corridor of Famer Lee Smith for third all-time, and with 24, he’ll be part of Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman within the 500 save membership. All else being equal, he might select one other summer season closing for a second-division workforce as a substitute of prioritizing a lower-leverage function with a contender. – JJ

Participant Notes
Right here’s the enjoyable factor about attempting to foretell what Ferguson will do going ahead: 2024-25 was the primary offseason in 5 years the place he didn’t fully remake his repertoire over the winter. Even so, he modified dramatically, dropping a run off his ERA and half a run off his FIP regardless of dropping seven proportion factors off his strikeout price. Ferguson can even be trying to be part of his sixth completely different group for the reason that finish of 2023, so I assume he’s the baseball equal of a man who fakes his personal dying each few years and strikes to a brand new state to begin over.

The newest model of Ferguson made 70 appearances throughout stints with the Pirates and Mariners, and allowed simply two house runs in 65 1/3 innings. He was dying on lefties, permitting only a .219 wOBA to same-handed hitters, and whereas his .311 wOBA in opposition to right-handed hitters most likely precludes him from high-leverage work, it’s survivable within the age of the three-batter minimal.

Ferguson will most likely be extremely sought-after this offseason, as a result of in contrast to somebody like Kyle Tucker or Pete Alonso, he’s each helpful and inexpensive for all 30 groups. It’s notable that the 5 groups he’s pitched for over the previous three seasons embrace perennial contenders just like the Dodgers, Astros, and Yankees, in addition to the Pirates. Dangerous groups want relievers to tick the innings counter over; good groups want guys to eat up medium-leverage alternatives within the common season. The Mariners just lately discovered what occurs to pitchers like Ferguson within the playoffs (a number of runs allowed in two of his three postseason outings this yr), however simply getting there’s half the battle. – MB

Participant Notes
The Reds, who play in one of the vital homer-friendly parks within the majors, can not cease buying homer-prone pitchers: Pagán, Zack Littell, Brady Singer, even first-rounder Chase Burns. Two offseasons in the past, I concern trolled about Pagán’s tenure in Cincinnati, however you understand what? It labored out high-quality. It has labored out high-quality for many of those guys.

Pagán had a fantastic yr in 2025; he posted his lowest ERA since 2019 and set new profession highs in appearances and saves. Whereas the Reds staggered round ready for the Mets to break down in September, Pagán was one in every of Cincinnati’s finest gamers. In his remaining 12 appearances, he struck out 15 and allowed just one run and 9 whole baserunners. Over that crucial final 10-day interval, he saved 5 of Cincinnati’s remaining six regular-season wins.

The South Carolina native turns 35 subsequent Could, however his fastball velocity really went up in 2025, and he received his splitter to tunnel significantly better together with his heater, resulting in a few of the finest laborious contact suppression numbers in baseball. The house run points stay, so I don’t assume contenders shall be lining as much as throw huge cash at Pagán to shut, however he’d be a superb pickup for a rebuilding workforce with a necessity for high quality reduction innings and a watch towards flipping him to a contender subsequent July. – MB

Participant Notes
Weaver’s run as a reliever completely embodies the volatility of the place. Simply final October, he was on prime of the world. He had claimed the nearer function late within the season and was nails in the course of the Yankees’ playoff run, serving as their most dependable man each step of the way in which. He had stretches of actual dominance. However after a fantastic begin to the 2025 season – he had a 1.05 ERA via his first 25.2 innings – all the pieces flipped on its head. After taking the nearer function as soon as once more (this time from Devin Williams), Weaver strained his hamstring, inflicting him to overlook three weeks.

From his return via the tip of the season, his fastball was ineffective. The precision he had on the prime of the zone with the pitch was all of a sudden gone. And at 94-95 mph, that isn’t going to chop it, irrespective of how good Weaver’s changeup was and is. The arrogance that Aaron Boone had in him deteriorated. He gave up 10 runs in 9 1/3 innings throughout September. Then, when given a couple of probabilities within the playoffs, he gave up 5 runs throughout three appearances and solely received a single out. Now Weaver finds himself in a tricky place. He’s a superb candidate for a bounce again from his tough second half – his velocity and motion throughout his 2025 swoon had been in line with what he confirmed throughout his 2024 dominance – however it’s probably that his true expertise lies someplace in between. – ER

Participant Notes
Oops, I didn’t imply to hog all of the sidearmers! Milner is enjoyable, and he has a 3.21 FIP during the last 4 seasons, however the truth that he has vital platoon splits makes him just a little trickier to make use of out of the ‘pen. He mainly does all the pieces only a bit worse than Tyler Rogers. Like Rogers, he permits a variety of contact, however his command isn’t as sharp, his breaking pitch isn’t as comically absurd, and his sinker is much less efficient at turning bats into noodles. Milner has a changeup, however it doesn’t hold righties in verify.

Given the platoon break up, Milner’s most likely isn’t suited to creating scripted eighth inning setup appearances, but when you might want to get a lefty out, and also you’re in a state of affairs the place you’re not afraid of him going through a potent right-handed hitter, Milner is a extremely helpful function participant. I might guess he finally ends up with a one-year contract in 2026. – DS

Participant Notes
Finnegan may be baseball’s most underrated nearer. Over the previous three seasons, the 34-year-old right-hander has registered 90 saves and logged a 3.65 ERA over 190 innings whereas taking the mound for the Washington Nationals and, most just lately, the Detroit Tigers. Acquired by the Tabbies at this summer season’s commerce deadline in change for a pair of prospects, Finnegan was credited with three wins and 4 saves in August earlier than lacking a lot of the ultimate month with a groin damage; his absence contributed to a tumultuous stretch run that noticed the membership barely survive a September swoon.

A split-finger fastball is Finnegan’s finest pitch, and he started using it extra after shifting to Motown. The Detroit native threw 67.7% four-seamers and 29.6% splitters this season with the Nats, in comparison with 40.9% four-seamers and 54.8% splitters together with his hometown workforce. As he informed me shortly earlier than touchdown on the shelf, “I’m mainly doing what I’ve at all times performed nicely, however perhaps I simply haven’t utilized [the splitter] to its full capabilities. The Tigers have a variety of belief in my offspeed, so that they’re telling me to go on the market and use it.”

The outcomes converse for themselves. Over 16 appearances comprising 18 innings, Finnegan usual a 1.50 ERA, a 1.97 FIP, and a 34.8% strikeout price. Continued reliance on his splitter looks as if a given, however which workforce’s uniform he’ll be carrying subsequent yr is presently unknown. Whichever workforce it may be, Finnegan could possibly be the reply to their ninth-inning query. – DL

Participant Notes
Mahle returned for a pair of begins on the finish of 2025 after lacking three months for a rotator cuff pressure, which allowed him to complete a season on an lively roster for the primary time since 2021. Tommy John surgical procedure worn out all of Mahle’s 2023 and most of his 2024, however shoulder tightness, fatigue and strains have popped up the intervening gaps to restrict him to 24 begins during the last three years. As will occur with that quantity of arm aches over such an equal distribution between Mahle’s proper elbow and proper shoulder, his velocity has dipped since his career-best 2021 season, and he averaged 92 mph this previous yr. Not coincidentally, Mahle’s tenure in Texas noticed him dip beneath 50% fastball utilization (if you happen to don’t spherical up) and beneath a 20% strikeout price for the primary time.

However in between all that… he kinda carved?

From the beginning of April via the tip of Could, Mahle went 5 or extra innings and allowed two runs or fewer in 10 of his 11 begins. Counting on his plus command and elevated use of a splitter to keep away from laborious contact (37.1% hard-hit), Mahle completed 2025 with a particularly peripheral-defying 2.18 ERA in 86 2/3 innings. Missing premium velocity, bat-missing secondaries, or the flexibility to maintain the ball on the bottom is an insecure technique of getting outs even when Mahle had been coming off a run of fine well being. He positive isn’t, which probably resigns him to the very best one-year make-good supply the market can bear. – JF

Participant Notes
When you’re searching for a dependable back-of-the-rotation starter, Littell might very nicely be your man. The 30-year-old right-hander isn’t flashy — huge velocity and tons of strikeouts aren’t amongst his attributes — however he constantly solutions the bell and retains his workforce in video games. Littell has gone a minimum of 5 frames in 51 of his 61 begins over the previous two seasons, logging a 3.73 ERA alongside the way in which. Furthermore, his 343 innings rank Twenty fourth-most over that span.

Not unhealthy for a former Eleventh-round draft decide who was largely an afterthought on most prospect lists. When he was first featured right here at FanGraphs in an August 2015 Sunday Notes column, I wrote that “you’ve most likely by no means heard of Zack Littell.” That remained largely true for an additional handful of years.

Initially within the Seattle Mariners system, he’s now been with eight organizations, most just lately the Tampa Bay Rays and Cincinnati Reds. Obtained by the latter of these groups on the July 31 commerce deadline, the bearded North Carolina native was trusted sufficient by Terry Francona that he began Sport 2 of Cincinnati’s Wild Card sequence in opposition to the Los Angeles Dodgers. His mound opponent that day was Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a high-profile pitcher whose long-term contract dwarfs what Littell shall be receiving on the open market by a large margin. However whereas back-of-the-rotation starters don’t rake within the huge bucks, they’re invaluable. A lot for these causes, Littell needs to be on a variety of purchasing lists this winter. – DL

Participant Notes
It might be straightforward to shrug off Verlander’s 2025 season. He moved from Houston to San Francisco. His ERA, FIP, and residential run price dropped in a giant means, however his xERA and xFIP went means up. He went 4-11. Sounds scary, proper? Are we actually going to wager on a soon-to-be 43-year-old pitcher who put up a bounce-back season via the tried-and-true methodology of pitching in a park the place it’s loads tougher to hit house runs?

Earlier than you journey too far down that highway, ensure you account for the truth that Verlander made 29 begins and threw 152 innings in 2025. At 93.9 mph, his fastball nonetheless isn’t all that far beneath common, and for the second yr in a row, he’s been wonderful at limiting laborious contact. Stuff+ nonetheless sees him as solidly above common. He put up 2.2 WAR, which put him simply outdoors the highest 50 amongst all pitchers. Certainly a minimum of a pair groups – ideally groups with spacious ballparks – shall be curious about a back-end starter who can eat a couple of extra innings earlier than he heads to Cooperstown. – DA