This postseason, FanGraphs is continuous its custom of writing report playing cards for the on-field choices made by playoff managers. Excluding the managers who misplaced within the best-of-three Wild Card Collection, we cowl each spherical of the playoffs for all eight managers. It’s detailed sufficient that I’ve begun enlisting some assist. Up to now this 12 months, I’ve graded the efforts of A.J. Hinch, Aaron Boone, Craig Counsell, Rob Thomson, and Dan Wilson. Dan Szymborski scrutinized Pat Murphy’s efficiency. In the present day and tomorrow, I’m having a look at John Schneider. The Blue Jays performed sufficient video games that we determined to separate his report into two. Michael Baumann will comply with with a evaluate of Dave Roberts. It takes a village to get the type of in-depth protection we aspire to supply you.
Our aim is to guage every supervisor when it comes to course of, not outcomes. Should you usher in your greatest pitcher to face their greatest hitter in an enormous spot, that’s a great resolution whatever the final result. Attempt a triple steal with the bases loaded solely to have the opposite staff make 4 throwing errors to attain three runs? I’m most likely going to name {that a} blunder though it labored out. Managers do loads of different issues — getting staff buy-in for brand new methods or unconventional bullpen utilization behind closed doorways is a ability I discover notably worthwhile — however as I’ve no perception into how that’s achieved or how every supervisor differs, I can’t precisely assign grades for it.
I’m additionally purposefully avoiding obscure qualitative considerations like “trusting your veterans as a result of they’ve been there earlier than.” Playoff protection lovingly focuses on clutch performs by confirmed performers, however guys like Trey Yesavage and Addison Barger had been additionally wonderful this October. Overlook trusting your veterans; the playoffs are about trusting your greatest gamers. George Springer is essential as a result of he’s nice, not due to the variety of playoff sequence he’s appeared in. There’s nothing inherently good about having been round a very long time; once I’m evaluating choices, “however he’s a veteran” simply doesn’t enter my thought course of.
I’m all the time on the lookout for new analytical wrinkles in critiquing managerial choices. For example, I’ve more and more come to view pitching choices as a trade-off between defending your greatest relievers from overexposure and minimizing your starters’ weakest matchups, which implies that I’m grading managers on a number of axes in each sport. I believe there’s nearly no pitching resolution that’s a real no-brainer as of late; there are simply too many competing priorities to make something completely apparent. Meaning I’m going to be much less sure in my analysis of pitching than of hitting, however I’ll attempt to make my confidence degree clear in every case. Let’s get to it – nicely, no less than, the hitting half of it.
Batting: C-
The Blue Jays offense appears fairly simple to run. You place your good guys on the market, they rating one million runs, the opposite staff’s pitchers look unhappy, finish of story. However “simple to run” isn’t how John Schneider works. The person is a born tinkerer, and his roster is tinker-friendly, with multi-positional whiz Ernie Clement fronting a gaggle of versatile defenders. With Springer (and later Bo Bichette) restricted by damage, there have been additionally loads of offense/protection switches to contemplate. Within the first two video games of the ALDS in opposition to the Yankees, the Jays scored an mixture 23 runs, they usually did so whereas altering three starters from one sport to the following. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Davis Schneider, and Myles Straw all platooned in in opposition to lefty Max Fried within the second sport, setting a tone that the Jays would use their total roster.
That configuration didn’t final lengthy; the Jays confronted one other lefty the following day and subbed in Anthony Santander for Straw. Kiner-Falefa solely lasted two innings; when the Yankees introduced in a righty reliever to exchange a laboring Carlos Rodón, Barger got here in off the bench. That was somewhat early for my style, particularly as a result of it stacked the lefty-hitting Barger in entrance of the lefty Andrés Giménez. For the lefty-light Jays lineup, that supplied the Yankees a pure place to make use of their lone lefty reliever, Tim Hill. True to type, Hill turned Barger inside out with a runner on base at a key spot within the sport. Fortuitously for the Blue Jays, although, it didn’t matter. Their guys beat the Yankees squarely within the run of play, and Sport 4 went Toronto’s method with none roster shenanigans or pinch-hitting, solely the usual defensive substitutions. (Straw and Kiner-Falefa had been each most well-liked late-inning choices with a lead all October, rightfully so.)
Dealing with a righty-only Mariners rotation within the ALCS, Schneider needed to mothball his multi-lineup plan. Straw bought into Sport 1 when Nathan Lukes fouled a ball off of his knee, however the Jays actually didn’t need Straw hitting in opposition to righties, and Schneider ended up pinch-hitting for him with Davis Schneider, who was on the roster as a lefty-masher however continues to be a greater choice than Straw in opposition to righties. Fortunately, Lukes was in a position to return the following day. Unluckily, Santander was unavailable as a result of again tightness, which meant Davis Schneider (managers and gamers with the identical final identify needs to be unlawful, thanks for coming to my TED Discuss) bought extra run in some subpar matchups.
This time, the Jays bought blown out 10-3, and John Schneider ultimately subbed out catcher Alejandro Kirk, a key offensive choice, to present him the ninth inning off. I might need performed it even earlier, to be sincere, however I beloved that transfer and suppose that managers don’t do that typically sufficient. Catching is difficult! Catching day-after-day is especially laborious. The sport wasn’t unsure. I’m undecided how a lot an inning of relaxation helps – however presumably it helps a non-zero quantity.
The Santander saga got here to an sad finish as soon as the sequence shifted to Seattle. After three plate appearances, his again damage compelled him out of the sport once more, this time for the remainder of the postseason. Fortuitously, the Jays received by 9 and Straw’s 0-for-2 line within the cleanup spot didn’t matter in any respect. Santander’s substitute in Sport 4 was truly Kiner-Falefa plus some defensive pivots, which meant Barger in proper area and a pure offense-for-defense swap afterward, with Straw pinch-running and enjoying the sphere. It labored like a attraction, and Kiner-Falefa even supplied an offensive enhance.
The most important drawback I noticed was that bunts beginning to creep in. Giménez dropped down a pure sacrifice, to be honest in opposition to a really powerful lefty in Gabe Speier, and it labored out within the sense that not solely did the runner he superior rating, however the man who drove him in scored as a result of the Jays simply rating a ton of runs total. Later within the sport, Kiner-Falefa gave himself up as nicely, however the Jays had been already up 4, and there have been two runners on, which seems like a greater spot to bunt to me. I nonetheless didn’t like it, although. I hate bunting once you’re a staff that makes only a few outs total; it’s simply wasteful given how probably Toronto was to hold a crooked quantity up anyway. Extra on that later.
After two uneventful video games from a decision-making standpoint, the ALCS reached a climactic Sport 7. The most important offensive resolution was one other sacrifice bunt. With runners on first and second and nobody out within the backside of the seventh, the Jays trailed by two runs. Giménez dropped down a sacrifice bunt that moved runners to second and third with one out. It was a foul play by win chance, as a result of it elevated the Jays’ probabilities of leaving the inning with just one run. It was a complicated play based mostly on the run of the sport; Giménez had the platoon benefit, he’d already walked in opposition to opposing pitcher Bryan Woo, and once more, the Jays put hits collectively in bunches. They scored six runs a sport this postseason regardless of enjoying in opposition to a number of the greatest pitching staffs within the majors. The following two batters after the bunt each bought hits, and considered one of them was a large residence run. Cease giving up outs!
The World Collection made Schneider’s job simpler. The Dodgers had nearly no relievers of be aware, so he didn’t should fastidiously separate his greatest right-handed hitters to keep away from working right into a righty reduction ace. He stacked the highest of the lineup together with his greatest righties, and even higher, Bichette returned from damage to play second base, which lengthened the lineup much more. The lineup in opposition to Blake Snell within the opener featured 5 righties in a row on the high, and after they chased him from the sport, Schneider bought to deploy his trusted lefties in good spots. Lukes and Barger every drove in runs in a nine-run sixth that blew the sport open. Barger’s was a grand slam in opposition to Anthony Banda, a lefty particularly summoned to counter him. Banda needed to keep within the sport after that, and gave up one other two hits to the scary righties who adopted. Glorious sport of managing right here; the Jays had been a nightmare matchup for Snell and the Dodgers, and Schneider made issues even more durable on Los Angeles with prudent managing.
Sport 2 was quiet, with Bichette again on the bench and Lukes again within the lineup in opposition to a righty. Sport 3, an 18-inning traditional, was filled with levers to tug, although. Bichette began once more. Springer departed early after tweaking his indirect on a foul ball, and 18 innings meant lots of substitutions for the switch-happy Jays. Kiner-Falefa pinch-ran for Bichette within the seventh. Straw ran for Barger within the eighth. Davis Schneider ran for Ty France, Springer’s substitute, within the tenth. Tyler Heineman, Toronto’s 34-year-old backup catcher, ran for Kirk within the twelfth. That gang of 4 pinch-runners then went a mixed 1-for-14 as the sport dragged on and the Jays failed to attain in opposition to an infinite array of so-so Dodgers relievers.
Contingent on a sport going this lengthy, some substitutions will find yourself wanting unhealthy, so I’m attempting to not be too harsh on Schneider. However I wasn’t enamored together with his decision-making. When Bichette departed the sport, Toronto was already mild on the offensive finish due to Springer’s departure; the staff was additionally up by solely a run, and with two outs, a pinch-runner wasn’t notably worthwhile anyway. Bichette was prone to bat once more even when the sport didn’t go to extras, and one run simply isn’t quite a bit in opposition to a Dodgers staff with a lot energy, so extras had been undoubtedly within the equation. It was only a defensive substitution, actually, however I believed it was too early to be enjoying for protection. The Dodgers are scary as a result of they put numerous balls over the wall; I don’t like eradicating good hitters as a counter.
I appreciated the choice to pinch-run for Barger extra – it occurred later within the sport, and this time it was a tie ballgame with a weak reliever, Jack Dreyer, on the mound. This was extra of an offensive substitution – the run actually mattered and Straw is quite a bit quicker than Barger. It didn’t pan out, however I perceive the considering no less than. In an actual bummer of an final result, although, Kiner-Falefa and Straw made two of the three outs within the backside of the ninth, sandwiched between all of Toronto’s greatest remaining hitters, who largely reached base.
Schneider’s have to make strikes bit him nearly instantly. When France singled with two outs within the backside of the tenth, it was an apparent spot for a speedy pinch-runner. The issue was that Schneider had already used everybody quick. He needed to go to Davis Schneider, who has about common footspeed, and he ended up getting thrown out on the plate on a play the place Straw or Kiner-Falefa most likely would have scored. Now, the Jays had been working with a disastrously unhealthy lineup. When Kirk walked to start out the twelfth, John Schneider dug himself even deeper by first pinch-running with Heineman, making the offense even worse, after which having Straw attempt to sacrifice him to second. Straw softly lined out his bunt try, however then, the Jays being the Jays, they loaded the bases within the inning anyway. Sadly, a bunch of sentimental spots within the lineup had been due up they usually couldn’t capitalize. With no hitters left on the bench to usher in and a remaining lineup so weak that there have been by no means baserunners to bunt over, Schneider was performed making choices for the sport, and after the Jays failed to attain for 11 straight innings, the Dodgers lastly received within the 18th.
With Springer out briefly, Schneider moved everybody up a spot within the lineup, placing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. second. Then he proceeded to make nearly no substitutions for 2 straight video games, with the Jays successful each convincingly. That despatched the sequence again to Toronto for the ultimate two video games, and even higher, Springer returned. Sport 6 was a Yoshinobu Yamamoto washout, although I do have one be aware on that sport: The Jays put runners on second and third with nobody out within the backside of the ninth inning, seeking to tie the sport at three. The primary of these runners was Straw, in for Kirk. The second was Barger, who continuously bought changed by a pinch-runner all through the playoffs, however for no matter cause stayed within the sport this time, even with Kiner-Falefa nonetheless out there. (Kiner-Falefa is not quick, however he nonetheless grades out as an above-average baserunner.) Barger promptly bought doubled off of second base to finish the sport on a poor base-running resolution. It’s undoubtedly not a great look to be wildly pinch-runner glad and but have a man you continuously pinch-run for making an enormous base-running blunder in a vital state of affairs.
For Sport 7, Schneider caught together with his greatest lineup and in addition his tinkering tendencies. Within the high of the primary inning, he put the banged-up Springer in movement and ran right into a strike-em-out-throw-em-out double play in opposition to a clearly compromised Shohei Ohtani. Hate it, hate it, hate it. Within the backside of the third, Schneider had Lukes sacrifice bunt, and are available on, why? You trusted this man sufficient to bat second in Sport 7 of the World Collection. He had the platoon benefit. He hadn’t bunted all postseason. Ohtani was getting hit laborious – he’d confronted 10 batters and half of them had reached. Cease giving up outs! Three extra Blue Jays reached base within the inning, clearly.
A fairly great spot for a bunt got here up within the backside of the eighth inning, with a runner on second and no one out, and Schneider clearly wasn’t going to overlook the straightforward bunt alternatives given how continuously he was calling that exact play. Giménez confronted a nightmare matchup in Snell, and after a foul bunt try, the Dodgers introduced the nook infielders in. Noticing this, the scrappy second baseman made an ideal adjustment, electing for the slash-bunt play as an alternative; he confirmed bunt, pulled it again, then swung away and rifled a line drive at third baseman Max Muncy, who reflexively snared it for an unbelievable play. This was the uncommon spot the place I truly appreciated the preliminary bunt name, and I actually appreciated the pliability that Schneider gave Giménez to slash when the defensive positioning modified. It didn’t work out, however the unhealthy final result doesn’t change my confidence that this was good decision-making.
With out additional innings, that may have been the final resolution Schneider made on offense. However this sport couldn’t finish with out one other bunt, clearly. Trailing by a run within the backside of the Eleventh, the Jays bought issues began with a Guerrero double. Schneider instantly referred to as the sac, this time by Kiner-Falefa, who was within the sport after pinch-running for Bichette. He bought it all the way down to advance Guerrero to 3rd, however the Jays hit right into a series-ending double play, what with one and two making three outs and all. Cease giving freely outs! This explicit bunt is terrible as a result of it’s enjoying for a tie when the second run is simply as worthwhile as the primary. A one-run inning strikes your odds of a victory from 0% to 50%. A two-run inning strikes them as much as 100%. When each run is price 50% of win chance, it’s a horrible thought to sacrifice outs to make that first run extra prone to rating. You continue to should go win the sport, and as we bought accustomed to on this sequence, the Jays had been enjoying with a compromised lineup by this stage and actually ought to have been thinking about getting as many bites on the multi-run-inning apple as potential. The straightforward math says that the profitable bunt lowered Toronto’s odds of successful by three proportion factors, an unlimited blunder. I believe it’s even somewhat worse than that contemplating the state of affairs, although.
On the finish of the day, a lot of Schneider’s offensive strikes appeared to return all the way down to him liking to make strikes. The minor defensive substitutions, the pinch-runners, the hit-and-run, the bunts; in watching these video games stay after which reviewing them for this text, I bought the impression of somebody who simply can’t sit nonetheless. A few of these strikes had been good. Lots of them had been unhealthy. I’ve a tough time getting too labored up by the substitutions, though I didn’t like how aggressively early Schneider eliminated his greatest hitters for defensive enhancements, however I’m keen to name that only a matter of style. However the bunts… there, I can not give him the advantage of the doubt.
The sheer quantity of bunts – seven of them plus Giménez’s slash – is baffling to me. This staff led the playoffs in each OBP and slugging proportion. They scored runs at will. Their outs even tended to be productive, as a result of additionally they had the bottom strikeout charge within the playoffs. Cease giving freely outs! I didn’t scream at my TV fairly often this October – solely 3 times, in truth. Two of them had been directed at Schneider (one you’ll hear about within the pitching part, after which the Eleventh-inning bunt). I needed to give him a foul grade on account of that. I’ve stated it quite a bit on this part already, however cease giving freely outs.