Josh Naylor Is Stealing the Highlight

Till the Mariners traded for the Diamondbacks’ Josh Naylor on July 24, they’d a primary base downside. For the second season in a row, subpar first-half manufacturing from their first sackers threatened to derail their bid for a playoff spot, and whereas they hadn’t shied away from addressing the difficulty final summer season, they ended up lacking a Wild Card berth by a single win nonetheless. In his first massive swing at upgrading their roster this summer season, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto dealt for Naylor, and since then, he’s confirmed to be one among their most dependable gamers — not simply on the plate, however on the bases and within the discipline as nicely. He’s proven off all aspects of his sport throughout this postseason, together with in Monday evening’s 10-3 ALCS Recreation 2 win over the Blue Jays, throughout which he notched his third three-hit effort up to now 4 video games.

After accumulating the hit that helped the Mariners clinch a playoff berth — a bases-loaded, eighth-inning double off the Rockies’ Victor Vodnik on September 23 — and shutting the common season with a 12-game hitting streak, Naylor’s October truly started inauspiciously. He went hitless within the Mariners’ first three Division Collection video games in opposition to the Tigers, with a first-inning stroll in opposition to Recreation 1 starter Troy Melton his solely constructive outcome throughout a stretch of 14 plate appearances; he simply missed hitting one out in opposition to Melton within the fourth inning of that sport, a 108.2-mph drive hauled in just some ft in entrance of the right-center discipline wall. Solely as soon as throughout the common season had he gone hitless in three straight video games, that from June 1–4 whereas a member of the Diamondbacks. One of many few highlights from his newer dry spell was his unassisted double play to seal the Mariners’ Recreation 3 victory, when he speared a liner off the bat of Parker Meadows, then doubled Andy Ibáñez off first.

Naylor began filling within the hit column with a 3-for-4 afternoon within the Mariners’ 9-3 loss in Recreation 4, doubling off Casey Mize and scoring a run within the second inning, then singling off Tyler Holton and coming round to attain within the fourth, at which level the Mariners led 2-0. He pulled off one other unassisted double play within the fourth, this day off a Colt Keith one-hopper that caught Gleyber Torres retreating to first base. Alas, by the point Naylor led off the eighth with a single off Melton, Seattle trailed 8-3. Too little, too late.

Nonetheless, that efficiency arrange Naylor’s star flip in the decisive, epic Recreation 5. Within the second inning, he smacked an opposite-field double off Tarik Skubal, then confirmed off the base-stealing savvy that few may need guessed he possessed given his 5-foot-11, 235-pound construct and third-percentile dash velocity. Skubal hadn’t allowed a steal of third all season, however with Mitch Garver on the plate, Naylor took an enormous secondary lead, and nearly seemed to be in disbelief {that a} steal might be really easy. On the published, former catcher A.J. Pierzynski famous that Tigers infielders had been shouting, “Step off!” however that Skubal couldn’t hear them over the din of the T-Cell Park crowd. As soon as Naylor went, catcher Dillon Dingler’s throw was late and offline to the third base aspect; the play wasn’t shut. The steal proved pivotal when Naylor scored the sport’s first run on Garver’s lineout to middle, and as a bonus, he received to put on filth everywhere in the entrance of his uniform for the following 13 innings, a reminder of his further effort:

Within the seventh, with two outs, Polanco on first and the Mariners now down 2-1, Naylor fell behind 0-2 in opposition to Kyle Finnegan, then singled to proper discipline. Finnegan departed in favor of Holton, whom pinch-hitter Leo Rivas greeted with a game-tying RBI single. Naylor’s two-out single off Will Vest within the ninth inning went for naught, and the remainder of his evening was comparatively uneventful, however he’d performed an important position in serving to the Mariners attain their first ALCS since 2001.

After going hitless within the ALCS opener in opposition to the Blue Jays, Naylor went 3-for-4 in opposition to a trio of pitchers in Recreation 2, highlighted by his two-run homer within the seventh inning, and he survived an damage scare as nicely. By the point he confronted Trey Yesavage within the first, the Mariners already led 3-0 due to Julio Rodríguez’s three-run homer. With two outs and the bases empty, Naylor fell behind 0-2, watched a splitter sail excessive method off the plate, fouled a pair pitches off — together with a really painful-looking one off his proper ankle, inflicting him to hobble round for a number of moments — then reached out and poked a high-and-outside four-seamer simply previous a diving Ernie Clement for a single:

Actually, that ball’s 4.17-foot peak because it crossed the plate made it the very best for any base hit to date this postseason. That kind of hit was truly nothing new for Naylor. His 30 hits above the strike zone led the majors this 12 months, as did his 75 hits within the higher third of the zone or greater, and he had the majors’ third-highest batting common in that context:

After Eugenio Suárez struck out and Dominic Canzone took ball one, Naylor swiped second base standing up, his second steal of the postseason. He didn’t get any additional than that, as a result of Canzone struck out. Along with his ankle nonetheless smarting to the purpose that supervisor Dan Wilson thought-about eradicating him from the sport, Naylor hit one other two-out single off Yesavage within the third, although he was stranded once more.

“I simply informed him I’d let him know, and that’s actually it,” Naylor mentioned afterwards. “Yeah, perhaps a whole lot of us are sore, a whole lot of us are harm, most likely on either side. However these are vital video games, and I don’t actually need to get taken out if I can nonetheless stand.”

In between these two plate appearances, Naylor made an error that helped the Blue Jays get again into the sport. After George Springer led off the house half of the primary with a double off Logan Gilbert, Nathan Lukes hit a chopper to the primary base aspect. Naylor charged the ball, and whereas nonetheless on the run, tried a backhand flip to Gilbert protecting first base. However his throw sailed behind the pitcher, permitting Springer to attain and sending Lukes to second; he scored on Kirk’s two-run single:

Naylor a minimum of partially atoned for his defensive miscue within the fifth, after Jorge Polanco’s three-run homer off Louis Varland (who struck Naylor out) restored the Mariners’ three-run lead. Springer hit a comfortable curler down the primary bottom line and Naylor ranged over to make a backhanded sliding cease, adopted by one other unorthodox throw, this one sort of a sky hook whereas nonetheless on his abdomen — and on the right track to pitcher Eduard Bazardo, who was protecting first. Extra filth for the entrance of that uniform!

With the Mariners up 7-3 within the seventh, Naylor helped put the sport on ice. Following a one-out single by Polanco off Braydon Fisher, he labored the depend full, then crushed a middle-middle slider for a 359-foot homer to right-center discipline:

The additional runs allowed Wilson to stay with lower-leverage hurlers Carlos Vargas and Emerson Hancock to shut out the sport, and extra notably made Naylor the fourth Canadian-born participant — and the primary visiting one — to hit a postseason homer in Canada, becoming a member of Blue Jays Russell Martin, Michael Saunders, and Guerrero the Youthful. Naylor was born and raised in Mississauga, Ontario, about 16 miles from the Rogers Centre, grew up a Blue Jays fan, and had loads of household and mates in attendance.

Due to that trio of three-hit video games, Naylor has lifted his postseason line to .290/.313/.452 (118 wRC+), an excellent approximation of his common season .295/.353/.462 (128 wRC+) slash line save for a few lacking walks. That latter line appears just like the second coming of John Olerud given the Mariners’ current manufacturing from their first basemen.

On the time they traded for Naylor, the Mariners had been 54-48, six video games behind the Astros within the AL West race and in a digital tie for the second and third AL Wild Card spots with the Crimson Sox. Their first basemen — Rowdy Tellez (who was designated for task and launched in late June), Donovan Solano, and Luke Raley — had hit a mixed .233/.298/.412 (104 wRC+) with 0.4 WAR to that time, unhealthy sufficient to land on my Substitute Stage Killers checklist. Mariners followers might be forgiven for a way of déjà vu, because the subpar work of Ty France had landed them on that checklist in 2024 as nicely. Final 12 months, the group solved that downside by buying and selling France to the Reds, including Justin Turner from the Crimson Sox, and shifting Raley from the outfield, a transfer that offered an offensive jolt but wasn’t fairly sufficient; the Mariners completed three video games behind the Astros within the AL West and one behind the Tigers and Royals within the race for the final two Wild Card spots.

Naylor, whom the Diamondbacks had acquired from the Guardians final December — after he’d made his first All-Star group, hit a career-high 31 homers, and helped Cleveland attain the ALCS — hit .292/.360/.447 (122 wRC+) with 11 homers and 11 steals throughout his temporary keep in Arizona. His commerce to the Mariners in change for a pair of pitching prospects (lefty Brandyn Garcia and righty Ashton Izzi) was the primary of 5 the sub-.500 Diamondbacks revamped the ultimate eight days of July, as basic supervisor Mike Hazen dealt away half a dozen pending free brokers to contending groups; Suárez rejoined Naylor in Seattle in a deal seven days later.

With the Mariners, Naylor continued the revamped method he took this 12 months, buying and selling a little bit of energy for extra contact; his common bat velocity slowed from 72.9 mph final 12 months to 70.9 this 12 months, together with his quick swing fee falling (from 32.7% to 17.7%) and his squared-up fee rising (from 27.3% to 31.2%). He hit .299/.341/.490 with 9 homers and 19 steals for the Mariners; his 137 wRC+ ranked fourth on the group over that span, behind Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh, and Polanco. Whereas his whole of 20 homers was 11 shy of final 12 months’s mark, his total 128 wRC+ represented a profession excessive, and his 13.7% strikeout fee matched a profession low. However probably the most eye-catching a part of of his stat line was these steals. Given his burly body and lack of velocity, Naylor acquired the nickname “Thickey Henderson” someplace alongside the best way, however his athleticism and baseball IQ have usually been underestimated, and his success is not any joke. He stole 30 bases in 32 makes an attempt, together with 19 with out being caught as soon as after the commerce, tied with former teammate Corbin Carroll for the majors’ third-highest whole in that span, behind solely Juan Soto (25!) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (21). His total 93.8% success fee ranked third within the majors amongst gamers with a minimum of 20 makes an attempt. By way of Baseball Reference’s Stathead, his 30 steals equaled the mixed whole of the 15 different non-pitchers listed beneath six ft and a minimum of 220 kilos, solely six of whom even tried a steal this season:

“He has an excellent baserunning IQ, good instincts,” Guardians first base coach Sandy Alomar Jr. informed The Athletic in late August, referring to Naylor. “He sees tendencies and stuff.”

“For Josh, it’s the mental a part of the sport,” his brother and former teammate Bo Naylor informed The Athletic. “It’s the sample recognition and with the ability to benefit from these issues… You examine him to somebody who has simply loopy velocity, they’ll simply belief their legs to do the work. To everybody who has the potential to steal bases, it simply will depend on no matter your potential is and profiting from it.”

“As soon as I began enjoying baseball, I actually needed to only perceive it on a unique stage,” Naylor informed MLB.com earlier this month. “It’s exhausting typically, however I feel in case you can decide one factor a sport to lock in on and attempt to perceive and attempt to learn just a little higher, you’ll be prepared for the following time the chance arises. After which the following time, you decide one thing else to work on.”

Updating some Statcast knowledge beforehand highlighted by Defector’s Kathryn Xu and our personal Davy Andrews, the latter for our August 16 FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag, Naylor’s common lead distance gained of three.1 ft on stolen base alternatives is under the league median of three.6, however he’s executed a fantastic job of selecting his spots. On his stolen base makes an attempt, his leads expanded from a mean of 16.1 ft with Arizona to 17.2 with Seattle, each nicely above the foremost league median of 10.6 ft. Not often did his stolen base makes an attempt draw aggressive throws from catchers.

As for his protection, Naylor’s 5 DRS and 1 FRV in 441.2 innings at first base for the Mariners represented notable enhancements each upon his metrics with the Diamondbacks (-6 DRS and -2 FRV in 639.1 innings) and as in comparison with the Mariners’ different first basemen this 12 months (-11 DRS and -5 FRV in 1,020.1 innings). Pattern measurement caveats definitely apply right here, and for what it’s price, his personal metrics have fluctuated; he posted -6 DRS and a pair of FRV in 1,205 innings for the Guardians final season. Nonetheless, it’s truthful to say he’s offered an improve on the spot for the Mariners.

On a group with a possible MVP (Raleigh), one other franchise cornerstone (Rodríguez), and a participant whose clutch postseason hitting will stay eternally in franchise lore (Polanco), Naylor has discovered his personal place within the highlight whereas serving to his newish group come inside two wins of its first journey to the World Collection. No matter occurs to the Mariners from right here, it received’t be a shock if he’s close to the middle of the motion.