ALCS Preview: Mariners and Blue Jays Get a Shot To Write New Historical past

One of many first classes we find out about life is that it’s not often truthful. Neither the Seattle Mariners nor the Toronto Blue Jays are historic doormats, however each franchises have been plagued during the last three a long time by a scarcity of postseason success, in the event that they reached the playoffs in any respect.

After the Jays gained the 1993 World Sequence, it was 22 years till they made one other postseason. Toronto has quite a lot of current October appearances, however completed final within the AL East in 2024 and got here into the 2025 playoffs after being swept out of the wild card spherical in its final three alternatives, together with by Seattle in 2022. Except for that collection three years in the past, the Mariners have had it even worse: They’ve by no means gained a World Sequence — by no means even performed in a single — and their 2022 postseason look snapped a 21-year playoff drought. So the 2025 ALCS is a reasonably large deal for each groups, as somebody goes to face the Brewers or Dodgers for baseball’s championship.

The Rotations

The beginning rotation was not one in all Toronto’s strengths in 2025. Of the 12 playoff groups, the Jays rotation ranked on the backside in ERA, FIP, ERA-, and WAR. This wasn’t a shock ensuing from a bunch of nasty surprises, as we ranked the rotation twentieth coming into the season.

Kevin Gausman is the undisputed ace — one thing which form of annoys me as an Orioles fan — and whereas he solely reclaimed a couple of third of the strikeout fee that disappeared from 2023 to 2024, he has remained extremely efficient. And simply as importantly for a pitcher, he’s about as sturdy as they arrive, as he’s thrown the third-most innings of any pitcher during the last decade, and during the last 5 years, he’s second to solely Logan Webb. What’s at all times struck me as spectacular about Gausman is that he does it successfully as a two-pitch pitcher. The primary is a four-seamer that he throws over half the time, primarily early in counts. The second is a nasty splitter, and one which he makes use of successfully in opposition to batters from each side of the plate. (He additionally throws a slider, largely to righties, however he makes use of it lower than 10% of the time, and it’s by no means been an out pitch.)

Gausman is an exclamation level, however after him comes a lot of questions. José Berríos isn’t the pitcher he as soon as was, and he was even despatched to the bullpen on the finish of the yr earlier than being positioned on the IL with an elbow damage. Max Scherzer was signed to a one-year deal coming into 2025, however he missed three months with a thumb damage, and outdoors of run in August, he’s been hit very exhausting. Scherzer didn’t even make the ALDS roster; I’ve quite a lot of admiration for the bodily bravery of the Blue Jays worker who needed to break that to him. Bowden Francis was even much less efficient, and he’s been out since June with a shoulder impingement. Chris Bassitt did an excellent job consuming innings for Toronto this season, and after lacking the top of the season and the ALDS with again tightness, he made the ALCS roster. It’s unclear in the mean time how the Jays plan on utilizing each Bassitt and Scherzer, however the expectation is that one in all them will begin Recreation 4, with the opposite figuring out of the bullpen.

Toronto was pressured to improvise down the stretch and within the playoffs to be able to discover sufficient beginning pitching. Following final yr’s Tommy John surgical procedure, Shane Bieber didn’t make his season debut till the third week of August. He isn’t his Cy Younger-winning self, however the Jays acquired him from the Guardians in a deadline deal with out giving up a lot, and so they possible wouldn’t have gotten the highest AL seed with out him. Not chastened by the previous struggles of prospects Nate Pearson and Ricky Tiedemann, the Jays superior 2024 first-round choose Trey Yesavage by way of the system aggressively. Yesavage’s elevation paid off final week when he made the Yankees seem like little leaguers with 11 strikeouts over 5 1/3 hitless innings.

We ranked the Mariners rotation extremely coming into the season, at seventh in baseball, however keep in mind what I stated about life seldom being truthful? Seattle’s strong beginning 5 turned out to be extra of an issue than anticipated. George Kirby and Bryce Miller missed important time, and Emerson Hancock turned out to be a less-than-enthralling fill-in. Logan Gilbert missed a few months with a flexor pressure, and since coming again, he’s carried out extra like a strong no. 2 or 3 starter than an ace. The excellent news is, it’s wanting just like the Mariners could have all 5 of their desired beginning pitchers out there for the ALCS, with Bryan Woo getting back from a pectoral damage. That’s a bonus in a seven-game collection, the place it’s lots tougher to paper over a couple of lacking pitchers with bullpen video games.

The Mariners have already tapped Miller to face off in opposition to Gausman in Recreation 1, a choice they virtually definitely wouldn’t have made in an ideal world, as Miller shall be pitching on quick relaxation. He threw 55 pitches in ALDS Recreation 4, so he ought to be largely recovered, however the actual purpose he’s beginning is as a result of the opposite choices are on even much less relaxation. Kirby was the starter in opposition to Tarik Skubal in Friday night time’s Recreation 5, and through the 15-inning marathon, the Mariners wanted to make use of each Gilbert and Luis Castillo out of the bullpen. (Woo doesn’t seem like fairly prepared for Sunday.) Sure, Trey is savage, however I’d nonetheless give the Mariners an total edge right here regardless of these issues. Rotational depth works to their benefit.

The Lineups

The Blue Jays ranked fourth within the AL in runs scored, however not like quite a lot of their profitable offenses in earlier years, this wasn’t on the again of dwelling runs. The lineup was a little bit of a throwback, as Toronto made probably the most contact within the majors and ranked third in line drive proportion. The outcome was a .265 crew batting common, the most effective in baseball. (Hey, it’s 2025.) Anthony Santander upset in his first season in Toronto, however that was primarily as a result of he missed the majority of the season with a shoulder damage. And apart from, his absence was greater than compensated for by the stunning resurgence of George Springer, who gave the impression to be operating on fumes in 2024. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. acquired to speedy work incomes his megadeal, and gamers like Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk had full comebacks from their underwhelming 2024 contributions.

One factor the Blue Jays did very properly right here was filling within the holes round their finest performers. Toronto entered the season with quite a lot of secondary expertise to type by way of, with gamers like Ernie Clement, Addison Barger, and Davis Schneider all exhibiting flashes of situational worth, however typically with unanswered questions. The Jays squeezed quite a lot of efficiency out of this trio, in addition to from Nathan Lukes. That left Toronto with sufficient offense that it might admire the glovework of Andrés Giménez, the one actual offensive gap in its 2025 lineup.

We gained’t know for a couple of weeks whether or not or not Cal Raleigh is the AL MVP, but it surely’s simple that 2025 was his season. Good defensive catchers that hit 60 homers are exceedingly uncommon; the checklist in baseball historical past consists of he, himself, and him. He’s the most important a part of the Seattle lineup, however let’s not overlook concerning the Huge Dumper Prolonged Universe. Julio Rodríguez made his third All-Star Recreation, and I’d argue that he’s by some means develop into underrated throughout baseball fandom typically, overshadowed by his gradual begins to seasons and the Dumper behind the dish. Randy Arozarena turned out to be the left area reply the Mariners had been in search of, and J.P. Crawford didn’t resemble his 2024 model in any respect. Jorge Polanco surprisingly had the most effective offensive season of his profession, and Seattle bolstered its offense forward of the commerce deadline, when it added each Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez in separate offers with the Diamondbacks.

All instructed, the Mariners had the third-best wRC+ in baseball this season, behind solely the Yankees and Dodgers, and that was achieved enjoying two-thirds of the yr with out Naylor or Suárez. Their 113 wRC+ ranks third in crew historical past, behind solely the 1997 and 2001 editions. The Blue Jays have a really strong offense, however each ZiPS and I agree right here: Seattle’s is a little more harmful, particularly as a result of Bichette was left off Toronto’s roster due to a knee damage.

The Bullpens

Each groups had middling bullpens this season, ending in the course of the pack each in common ol’ numbers and fancy sabermetric stats. However the playoffs are largely about high-leverage hurlers, and that makes the weaker underbelly of each bullpens much less of a problem. I’d take Seattle’s top-five relievers, consisting of Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, Eduard Bazardo, Caleb Ferguson, and Gabe Speier, over Toronto’s quintet of Jeff Hoffman, Yariel Rodríguez, Seranthony Domínguez, Louis Varland, and Brendon Little, however by a smaller margin than you may assume: Park results make the Jays look a bit worse and the M’s a bit higher than actuality calls for.

The sting between the 2 bullpens might not come right down to which one is higher, however somewhat, which one is probably the most rested. Brash, Muñoz, and Bazardo all had multi-inning appearances on Friday, and with Miller pitching on quick relaxation, the Mariners can’t rely on getting seven innings from their Recreation 1 starter. If the Jays get to Miller early, Seattle might have to easily depend on somebody like Hancock to throw 4 or 5 innings to protect the pen for Recreation 2 and past. Toronto enters Sunday with three full days of relaxation.

The Bullpens

After all there are going to be projections!

ZiPS provides the Mariners a slight total edge, 56% to 44%. The 2 largest questions, no less than based mostly on how ZiPS sees it, is Woo’s availability and the Scherzer or Bassitt begin. If for some purpose Woo isn’t wholesome, the sting shrinks to 51% to 49% within the projections. And as for Scherzer, regardless of the projections assume, I’m undecided that I’d need to rely him out in what chance could possibly be the ultimate begin of his Corridor of Fame profession.