Cheesesteaks vs. French Dips: Dodgers vs. Phillies NLDS Preview

Meat + bread + mess are one of the vital iconic meals combos identified to humanity. Two of my favorites are classics of Philadelphia and Los Angeles, fantastic amalgamations that make a sloppy mess of whiz or jus go down my chin and, too typically, the shirt that I’m carrying. I’ve at all times lived within the japanese a part of america, so I’ve extra sensible expertise with cheesesteak places (I’m a fan of Dalessandro’s and John’s Roast Pork). However the French dip is fantastic as nicely — I’ve at the very least gotten to strive it at Philippe the Authentic — and I additionally love its cousin, quesabirria. Whichever you favor, you’re selecting from two of the heavy hitters in good, informal meals.

I’m not speaking about deliciousness as a result of I’m hungry, regardless that it’s nearly dinnertime, however as a result of the Dodgers and Phillies play an identical position in baseball: They’re not everybody’s favorites, however they’re two of essentially the most profitable franchises of the final 15 years, and if you happen to’re an NL crew, there’s a very good probability you’ll should undergo one or each of those groups en path to a championship.

The Rotations

This 12 months’s Phillies haven’t been bitten by as many accidents because the Dodgers have in current seasons, however the ones they’ve had have been vital. Zack Wheeler gained’t be discovered this postseason, or a lot of wherever subsequent 12 months both, after present process thoracic outlet melancholy surgical procedure final month to deal with one of the vital dreaded of pitcher illnesses. The longest-standing legacy member of the rotation, Aaron Nola, completed the common season along with his greatest begin of the season, however it got here after a half-season of basic ineffectiveness and a half-season of recovering from an ankle damage and a fractured rib. That’s the dangerous information. The excellent news is the breakout season of Cristopher Sánchez — arguably his second consecutive one — that noticed him change into the most important rival to Paul Skenes for this 12 months’s NL Cy Younger award. Ranger Suárez additionally put up profession bests in innings, ERA, FIP, and WAR, and Jesús Luzardo rebounded to his 2023 efficiency. A five-game collection with three off days provides the Phillies nearly their optimum rotation, at the very least from among the many wholesome hurlers, as they shouldn’t want a fourth starter (in all probability Nola) till the NLCS in the event that they get there, and shouldn’t have to go to both Taijuan Walker or Walker Buehler (signed August 31) in any respect.

Los Angeles is definitely in a reasonably good place by way of rotation well being, at the very least in comparison with its regular situation. Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are wholesome, and although he didn’t make any appearances in opposition to the Reds, Tyler Glasnow was a bullpen possibility throughout the Wild Card collection and will additionally seize a begin within the Division Collection. For the primary time shortly, the Dodgers ought to be capable to get by the postseason with 4 glorious starters. In truth, this 12 months, they’ve a surplus of stable beginning pitchers, as Clayton Kershaw in his farewell season and rookie Roki Sasaki, now again from damage, are anticipated to get high-leverage innings in aid.

If I inform ZiPS to solely have a look at the highest three beginning pitchers in these two rotations, the Phillies and Dodgers rank first and second, respectively, with a chasm earlier than the Mariners. The Dodgers inch forward in a seven-game collection due to the prevalence of their fourth-starter choices, however I’d be mendacity if I stated both crew had an vital benefit right here.

The Lineups

The injured Will Smith was on the Wild Card Collection roster, however he made no pinch-hitting appearances in opposition to the Reds, and he hasn’t caught a sport in a month. Ben Rortvedt did the majority of the catching down the stretch and within the two Wild Card video games, and I don’t assume there’s any method to not name this an enormous downgrade. ZiPS sees this as a bigger concern within the NLDS as a result of all three of the Phillies beginning pitchers are lefties. The Dodgers didn’t have a giant platoon break up throughout the season (5 factors of OPS), however that’s as a result of Smith was within the lineup, and ZiPS sees him because the second-best hitter in opposition to lefties on the crew (a projected .798 OPS). Regardless of the drop-off from Smith to Rortvedt, ZiPS views the Dodgers are the second-best playoff crew in opposition to southpaws, behind the Yankees, however in a decent matchup, small variations could make a significant affect on the result of a collection.

Even with out Smith beginning, the Dodgers have a lineup with Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman, so the supporting solid must be completely atrocious to make this offense not scary. And this supporting solid is greater than ample, with outfielders Teoscar Hernández and Andy Pages, in addition to third baseman Max Muncy, who continues to keep away from the mid-30s offensive decline. Tommy Edman has his moments, and the Dodgers appear to have lastly observed that Michael Conforto not hits like a significant leaguer. The crew’s bench is stable, with Dalton Speeding a lot better than the everyday third catcher on a roster, and loads of alternative to play platoons, particularly with infielders Muncy and Miguel Rojas.

The Phillies have the front-end expertise to take care of the Dodgers, however their depth is far weaker. Kyle Schwarber is an offensive beast who would have discovered house with the 1993 Phillies, and I doubt I’ve to trumpet the bonafides of Bryce Harper or Trea Turner. However J.T. Realmuto isn’t fairly the participant he was a number of years in the past, and each nook outfield spots (largely dealt with by Max Kepler and Nick Castellanos this season) ranked within the backside third of the league in WAR. Heart fielder Harrison Bader has excelled since coming over on the deadline from Minnesota, and his addition has supplied the additional advantage of sliding Brandon Marsh to left subject, however there’s nonetheless a major distinction within the total offensive projections. Discover I say total right here, as a result of there’s some excellent news on the projection entrance: ZiPS sees the crew disparity as principally being in opposition to left-handed pitchers. Towards righties, ZiPS has each groups as being projected to attain 5.2 runs per sport (in opposition to common pitching), however in opposition to lefties, it sees a 5.0 to 4.4 runs per sport edge for the Dodgers. Three of the 4 Los Angeles starters anticipated to pitch throw right-handed, and as issues are stand, the lone lefty, Snell, is lined as much as solely begin as soon as on this collection, in Sport 2, although due to the three off days within the collection, he might begin Sport 5 on 4 days of relaxation. These platoon splits are excessive sufficient that if I had been Dave Roberts, I’d do no matter is important to get Snell the ball two instances if this collection goes the gap.

The Bullpens

It seems like many of the relievers traded on the deadline didn’t truly work out, however the Phillies had one of many exceptions in Jhoan Duran. The highest 4 within the Phillies bullpen (Duran, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, David Robertson) is sufficient that ZiPS thinks that that is one of the best bullpen in baseball proper now, even with out José Alvarado (who could be disqualified from the postseason if he had been wholesome). Mainly, any reliever that Philadelphia is probably going to make use of over the following week initiatives as above common, even Buehler if he’s on the roster and utilized in aid.

I’d argue that the bullpen accidents are extra consequential for the Dodgers than their starter accidents proper now, although the return of Sasaki and the flexibility to have further starters within the pen mitigates this to a point. I’m not as bullish on a Tanner Scott rebound as some are (together with the projections) given the drop-off in his strikeout charge the previous few years, however whenever you add in Blake Treinen, Alex Vesia, Sasaki, the spare starters, and the surprisingly stable Jack Dreyer, it’s nonetheless an excellent group, even when it’s a hair behind the Phillies and scares the crap out of Dodgers followers on a nightly foundation.

The Projection

I went with two totally different eventualities right here, primarily based on how the Dodgers use their rotation.

Whereas it’s only some share factors, the eventualities during which Snell will get two begins are the optimized ones, at the very least in accordance with ZiPS. In any case, the projections counsel a small, however constant edge for the Dodgers, with their slight offensive benefit outweighing a slight bullpen drawback and the Phillies’ getting house subject benefit.

We’re not going to settle any sandwich debates within the subsequent week, however we’ll discover out which one in all these groups will go house hungry, with the bitter aftertaste of an early postseason elimination.