The Nationals will bear in mind 2025 as a niche 12 months, in the event that they’re fortunate. The 2023 and 2024 groups, invigorated by lots of the prospects acquired within the Juan Soto commerce, every received 71 video games, dragging Washington out of the bottom-of-table ignominy that it had occupied since successful the World Sequence in 2019 after which blowing up the roster. This 12 months’s squad goes to complete with a win whole within the 60s and a few developmental hiccups, a step backward from the latest previous. However misplaced within the broadly disappointing 12 months is one vivid shining beacon: Daylen Lile may simply be a keeper.
Lile, a highschool draftee in 2021, missed all of 2022 rehabbing from Tommy John surgical procedure, then spent the following two years methodically climbing by means of the minor league ranks. He began 2025 scorching, with a .337/.383/.509 line in his first 40 video games within the minors, and acquired his first style of the majors when Jacob Younger briefly hit the IL. Lile struggled throughout that first stint however landed within the majors for good a number of weeks later when the Nats overhauled their bench. By the All-Star break, he’d carved out a job as a rotational proper fielder.
That’s the boring a part of this text. The thrilling half? As Lile settled into large league life, alternative beckoned. Younger scuffled. Alex Name acquired traded. Dylan Crews was nonetheless out with harm. Lile? He simply stored hitting. By August, he was locked in as a starter, and why not? For the reason that break, he’s hitting a sensational .323/.371/.552 for a 153 wRC+, and turning heads together with his aggressive method and hair-on-fire baserunning. Transfer over, different child Nats – there’s a brand new high teen on the town.
Lile’s sport is constructed round a sensational really feel to hit. He often ran gaudy contact charges within the minor leagues, and his zone contact price within the majors is above 90%, squarely within the higher echelon of the league. Like many hitters who make a ton of contact, Lile likes to swing. Not like these friends, although, he’s performed a very good job of avoiding the over-chase downward spiral that traps so many singles hitters into lunging at sliders off the plate.
Loads of articles I write about younger hitters give attention to whether or not they’ll have the ability to cease swinging at so many unhealthy pitches. Right here, although, I don’t have loads to say on Lile’s plate self-discipline. If he can stick with it, why mess with it? I’m extra excited about what occurs after he makes contact with the ball, and that’s been an absolute revelation to date this 12 months.
Have you ever seen these little Statcast plots that present how typically gamers hit the ball at totally different launch angles? Right here’s Cal Raleigh, for instance, making an attempt to hit every little thing within the air and largely succeeding:
Trea Turner demonstrates one other well-liked form, hitting loads of lofted balls for energy after which a ton of well-struck grounders that reap the benefits of his pace:
Lile’s chart is much more thrilling to me. He doesn’t have the ability to mimic Raleigh, however he’s not limiting himself to grounders. As an alternative, he’s simply making an attempt to hit line drives:
They are saying that line drive price is noisy. They’re not flawed – however they’re not totally proper, both. Batters exert a good quantity of management over line drive price; it could be noisy normally, however some hitters actually are higher at hitting line drives. That feels prefer it needs to be apparent, nevertheless it’s price mentioning anyway as a result of I discover that, “Oh, so that you assume every little thing is random,” is a criticism that ceaselessly will get leveled at sabermetric evaluation even when it’s probably not the case. Will Lile preserve hitting line drives at a price that matches the profession marks of Luis Arraez and Freddie Freeman? In all probability not. However will he preserve hitting meaningfully extra line drives than common? I’d guess on it.
The laser-beam present Lile is placing on each night time showers all fields equally. His line drive spray chart has its fair proportion of down-the-line pictures, nevertheless it’s evenly distributed total:
To me, that present’s Lile’s intent fairly plainly. He’s adept at shifting his bat across the zone to make sq. contact, and which means prioritizing catching the ball sq. over controlling which approach it goes. These line drives may not produce a ton of dwelling runs, however they’re extremely efficient nonetheless; Lile is batting .598 with a .651 wOBA on his line drives, and that’s proper consistent with what Statcast’s anticipated metrics say. That’s just about par for the course for line drives, which is nice whenever you’re hitting so lots of them. The fellows you affiliate with this spray-hitting conduct – the Arraezes and Steven Kwans of the world, in different phrases – largely hit for below-average injury on their line drives, as a result of they’re slowing their swing down a ton to make sq. contact.
One other approach of placing that final half into context: Lile has a 46% hard-hit price on his line drives. That’s roughly double the charges that Kwan and Arraez have produced this 12 months, and never far shy of Freeman, maybe one of the best line drive hitter on the planet. Lile doesn’t have the identical top-end energy as Freeman, however his mixture of frequent and well-struck line drives is analogous. The highest of the road drive price listing is break up roughly evenly between pure contact sorts and energy hitters who hit line drives. Lile’s contact high quality is one way or the other nearer to the second group even whereas his pace and dimension make you suppose he’s a member of the primary.
One other vastly constructive signal within the early going: When Lile needs to energy up, he can. On his hardest swings, those which might be a minimum of three miles an hour quicker than his common, he goes from a 35% pull price (all different swings) to a 50% mark. He hits fewer grounders on these swings, in addition. In different phrases, on the swings that profit essentially the most from lifting and pulling, he lifts and pulls. The remainder of the time, he lets his bat-to-ball expertise do the work. For those who’re not planning on clobbering the ball, a tender liner wherever will do. For those who get your greatest swing off, although, you have to be aiming for additional bases to the pull facet, and that’s precisely what Lile has performed. Right here’s the spray chart of what occurs to the ball when he swings onerous and connects, that includes half of his dwelling runs:
This mix of sprayed line drives plus sporadic energy is not any accident. Lile advised David Laurila that he needs to hit the ball from foul pole to foul pole with a “fast, straight-to-the-ball, line drive method.” Yep, examine. He stated he’s already naturally outfitted to drive the ball within the air: “There’s nothing mechanically that I must attempt to do to drive the ball within the air. It’s extra timing-based.” Once more, that matches his swing knowledge. When he’s on time, he meets pitches out in entrance with quicker swings and pulls the ball. It’s loads simpler to extrapolate an method from batted ball knowledge when a participant says precisely what he’s making an attempt to do, and Lile’s said intent matches what he’s performed within the large leagues virtually completely.
The strangest factor about Lile’s season? He’s improved in just about each under-the-hood statistic relative to his minor league numbers. He’s chasing much less typically within the large leagues whereas swinging at strikes extra typically. He’s by no means run a decrease swinging strike price, even in a partial season. His strikeout price is definitely decrease within the bigs than it was in 2024, when he was splitting time between Excessive-A and Double-A. That form of enchancment is all the time price slightly skepticism, and it’s a very good guess that Lile’s plate self-discipline will come again to his profession norms by a minimum of a hair. However he can afford it, as a result of the method he’s taking proper now offers him a whole lot of room to succeed.
In reality, the most important drawback with Lile’s debut season has been his protection. It sounds bizarre. Lile is an electrical baserunner. He already has 11 triples and an inside-the-park dwelling run in half a season. His dash pace is within the 93rd percentile league-wide. He’s additionally one of many worst outfield defenders within the sport, as each Statcast and Sports activities Data Options agree.
I’ve watched a whole lot of Lile’s outfield play making an attempt to diagnose the problem. My greatest guess? He simply doesn’t have sufficient expertise. Due to his elbow surgical procedure, Lile merely hasn’t gotten a whole lot of reps on the market. In 2023, he logged round 800 outfield innings. In 2024, he managed roughly 1,000 extra. However which means the 600 innings he’s performed in Washington this 12 months characterize a significant proportion of his whole skilled expertise.
One constant flaw in Lile’s protection: He’s been gradual to make his preliminary learn and get shifting. I noticed this on a number of performs that Statcast deemed he ought to’ve made, and but Lile couldn’t forestall the ball from falling for a success. His first step is at occasions tentative or flat when it must be decisive. His burst and response metrics are under common because of this. To make issues worse, groups are working on him fairly ceaselessly, and he hasn’t made them pay for it with a pile of outfield assists. The result’s a man who seems like he needs to be an amazing defender when he’s at full stride – and but, he’s been fairly poor by each conceivable approach of measuring it. This looks like one thing that may enhance shortly with extra time within the majors, nevertheless it’s completely one thing price maintaining a tally of.
Lile might most likely use a little bit of seasoning in his basestealing, too. He’s been caught six occasions already whereas solely stealing eight baggage, a depressing ratio. That’s regardless of his total wonderful baserunning; he’s been three runs above common in all non-steal baserunning conditions and 1.5 runs under common stealing. That’s one other case the place extra reps can be useful. Earlier than this 12 months, Lile had mainly been stealing with impunity in opposition to defenders who had no shot to throw him out. He had an 81% success price within the minors. In a misplaced season, the Nats have each motive to let him run and work out his personal boundaries.
That’s form of the story of Lile proper now. His total statistics aren’t mind-blowing. Roughly one win in half a season? Ho hum. A 125 wRC+? Eh, we’ve seen higher. A foul defender who can’t even crack double digits in dwelling runs? Yawn. However I’d argue that the actual image is way totally different than that.
Lile’s chief ability, the power to place bat to ball at nice frequency whereas nonetheless lifting and pulling when he will get a pitch to drive, is without doubt one of the most respected expertise in all of baseball. It will probably’t be taught, and even lots of the individuals who have it don’t use it to its fullest extent. Lile’s method on the plate is refined past his years, and the truth that he makes a lot contact implies that there’s no silver bullet approach to counter him. He’s above common in opposition to fastballs, breaking balls, and offspeed pitches. He hits excessive velocity simply nice. His strikeout price isn’t low as a result of pitchers are nonetheless determining a plan of assault; it’s low as a result of he places the ball in play loads and doesn’t chase an excessive amount of.
The remainder of the stuff round his sport? The unhealthy routes in proper area, the occasions caught stealing? These are loads simpler to alter. The percentages that Lile is as unhealthy defensively in 2026 as he’s in 2025 are nearly zero. The percentages that he doesn’t get slightly higher at choosing his spots to steal are likewise tiny. These are expertise of expertise, expertise that everybody will get higher at with extra seasoning, and Lile simply hasn’t had sufficient of that, by quirk of draft 12 months and harm historical past.
So ignore WAR, a minimum of on this one occasion. It’s deceptive you. Daylen Lile is without doubt one of the most intriguing debuts of the 2025 season, with a throwback ability set that nonetheless works effectively within the trendy sport. His warts may cost a little him loads of worth within the current day, however that worth is ephemeral. Subsequent 12 months, Lile might be mainly the identical participant he’s this 12 months, and but submit a a lot better total line. It might virtually be stunning if he doesn’t, the truth is. Hitters this pure don’t come round all that always, and I’m wildly impressed by how Lile has lived the road drive life-style with out falling into the assorted traps that cease different hitters from making it within the large leagues by leaning totally on their bat-to-ball expertise.