I used to be going to start out this piece by acknowledging {that a} month in the past, it will’ve been logical to write down the Cincinnati Reds off. Then I remembered one thing: I truly did write the Reds off. From FanGraphs Dot Com, on August 29: “Except the Reds Do One thing Wild, the NL Playoff Race Is Over.”
Properly, the Reds did one thing wild. As a rule, I attempt to caveat my predictions; somewhat than saying one thing completely will or gained’t occur, I’ll use a body like “That is extraordinarily unlikely to occur; we’ll write about it if and when it does.” Properly, from August 29 to September 22, Cincinnati went from playoff odds within the low single digits to a digital coin flip:
Tuesday night was unkind to Cincinnati. The Mets, Diamondbacks, and Marlins (who’re nonetheless in some way not technically drawing lifeless) all staged dramatic come-from-behind wins, whereas the Reds grounded into double performs to finish their final three offensive innings and seal a irritating 4-2 loss to Pittsburgh. Nonetheless, these playoff odds peaked at 43.5%, and even after an evening of the worst attainable luck, the Reds stay very a lot within the hunt. Actually extra so than I anticipated them to be a month in the past. How did they do it?
Properly, since August 29, the Reds have hit .237/.307/.413, which is a wRC+ of… 95, tied for 18th within the majors. They’re twentieth in pitcher WAR, fifteenth in ERA-, and eighth in Ok-BB%. In order that they’ve been type of common total.
Possibly the Reds are simply pouncing on the proper moments, performing effectively in high-leverage spots. Ohio’s different massive mover over the previous month, Cleveland, has been on an absolute tear in these moments. Since August 29, Guardians hitters are hitting .449 in high-leverage plate appearances, with as many walks as strikeouts. All informed, that’s a wRC+ of 245. (Barry Bonds’ profession excessive in wRC+ was 244.)
Cincinnati’s high-leverage wRC+ through the Wild Occasions? An unenviable 68, good for twenty fourth within the majors. (It was 83 earlier than the GIDP binge final night time.) Reds pitchers held opponents to a wOBA of .288 in high-leverage plate appearances, which is sixteenth within the majors. That may not inform the entire story; Reds pitchers have the fourth-best FIP within the majors in high-leverage conditions since August 29, and the third-best stroll price, a downright parsimonious 3.4%. However they haven’t all of the sudden become the 1971 Orioles’ rotation on prime of the 2015 Royals’ bullpen or something:
Reds’ Particular person Performances Since August 29
Minimal 10 IP for pitchers, 50 PA for place gamers
Neither is there a exceptional particular person efficiency in right here. A pair guys are having a superb month. Spencer Steer is hitting the quilt off the ball, and Matt McLain is displaying indicators of life. That’s large, if it’s sustainable. Again in 2023, quite a lot of good folks stated McLain was Cincinnati’s finest younger infielder, not Elly De La Cruz. However a torn labrum sidelined McLain for all of 2024, and he’s been one of many 10 worst full-time hitters in baseball after returning to the lineup this yr. Actually, McLain is at the moment being outhit by Anthony Volpe, who’s within the strategy of being run out of New York on a rail.
So, yeah, don’t fear an excessive amount of in regards to the 1-in-3 strikeout price and indulge in McLain’s glimmer of productiveness.
Cincinnati’s high-usage pitchers have been fairly good on the entire — excellent, within the case of Hunter Greene and Emilio Pagán — and I don’t wish to trivialize the affect of going by a pennant race and not using a key pitcher stinking up the joint. I discussed high-leverage FIP since August 29 earlier; the Dodgers are lifeless final within the league, with a FIP of seven.27 below these situations. Thanks, Blake Treinen and Tanner Scott.
The Reds don’t have a weak spot like that, and it’s clear they’ve benefited. However I attempted to discover a man on both aspect of the ball who’s gone berserk over the previous month, in order that I might pin all of the credit score for this turnaround on him. And such a man doesn’t seem to exist.
Over this 26-day span, 253 pitchers pitched no less than 10 innings. Rank them by WAR, and there are not any Reds pitchers within the prime 25. Rank them by WPA, and Greene is the primary identify on the record at no. 18. Throughout that very same time interval, 260 place gamers registered 50 or extra plate appearances. Juan Soto leads the league in WAR, with 1.9, adopted by Aaron Choose, Cal Raleigh, and Shohei Ohtani. How unique. Looks as if some mixture of these guys leads the league in every part.
The highest WAR-getter among the many Reds? Steer, who is available in at 0.6, sixtieth on the record. Steer is thirty third within the league in WPA, and he’s the one Reds participant within the prime 60.
I suppose that is the place I hand over the gimmick: The Reds solely went 12-11 between the primary article and this one. They’re 30-30 for the reason that All-Star Break and 23-24 for the reason that commerce deadline.
It’s ironic that Soto has been on the type of tear I anticipated to search out from somebody — anybody — on the Reds. As a result of the true cause the Reds have made up this a lot floor is that the Mets went 8-14, the fifth-worst document within the massive leagues, over the identical span.
This, nonetheless, the Reds can take some credit score for, as they gained a collection in opposition to their Wild Card rivals two weeks in the past. Actually, since August 29, the Reds are 8-2 in opposition to different NL playoff contenders (the Mets, Padres, and Cubs) and 4-9 in opposition to everybody else. The Reds aren’t climbing to the highest of the pile; they’re dragging everybody else down with them.
I’ll finish by quoting a parable I’m keen on. A joke, truly. You’ve most likely heard it.
Two males are being chased by the woods by a bear. Certainly one of them stops, mid-pursuit, to alter into his trainers.
“You idiot!” his good friend says. “You’ll by no means outrun a bear, it doesn’t matter what sneakers you will have on!”
The primary man replies: “I don’t must outrun the bear. I simply must outrun you.”
I really like the Parable of the Bear and the Working Footwear due to the vital life classes contained therein. You possibly can most likely get away with taking two doughnuts from the field within the break room at work if you understand another person has taken three. You don’t wish to be the drunkest particular person at a marriage, however being the second-drunkest might be OK.
And even if you happen to play common ball down the stretch, you’ll be able to work your means again into the pennant race if the crew forward of you completely humps the bunk. Have the Reds been actually excellent the least bit over the previous month? Not likely. However that’s high-quality. They don’t must outrun the bear.