Mookie Betts Could Salvage His Season But

Mookie Betts entered the yr as an eight-time All-Star, six-time Gold Glove winner, the majors’ solely energetic place participant with three World Collection rings, and a possible future Corridor of Famer. Not one to again down from a problem, he’s turned himself into an distinctive shortstop after spending a superb chunk of 2024 battling the place to a bloody draw. But after a mysterious sickness knocked him out of the season-opening Tokyo Collection and sapped his energy, he spent the primary 4 months of this season struggling on the plate on account of mechanical compromises and, by his personal admission, a spiral of self-doubt. Over the previous six weeks, he’s lastly come round — and never a second too quickly because the Dodgers cling to a slim NL West lead.

The offensive decline of the 32-year-old Betts appeared to come back out of nowhere. Although he missed eight weeks final summer season on account of a fractured left hand, and didn’t hit the ball almost as laborious as in 2023, when he set a profession excessive with 39 homers, Betts had a wonderful season on the plate. He hit .289/.372/.491, with all three slash stats inserting among the many NL’s prime eight and his 140 wRC+ rating fifth — down 25 factors from 2023, however matching his profession mark to that time.

He hasn’t come near approximating that stage this season. Shortly earlier than the Dodgers departed for Japan, Betts contracted a mysterious virus that not solely sidelined him for these two video games in opposition to the Cubs, but additionally prevented him from consuming full meals and brought about him to lose 23 kilos, no small matter for a 180-pound athlete. But he was again within the lineup for the Dodgers’ stateside opener in opposition to the Tigers on March 27, homered twice the subsequent day, and began all however two of the workforce’s subsequent 54 video games.

Betts’ offense wasn’t a lot to jot down dwelling about by way of the season’s first two months, however it wasn’t dangerous, both. By means of the top of Could, he hit a modest .254/.338/.405 (109 wRC+) with eight homers. After these two on March 28, he hit one in opposition to the Braves on April 1, however added only one extra through the the rest of the month and 4 in Could. In late Could, he broke a toe on his left foot and missed 4 video games, and whereas he collected 10 hits in his first 5 video games again, June was his least productive month… a minimum of till July.

Inside these two summer season months, Betts endured what was most likely the worst stretch of his profession. From June 9 by way of July 23 — a span of 153 plate appearances — he hit simply .179/.235/.271 (36 wRC+), and was even worse than that over shorter stretches.

Whereas his offensive sport was falling aside, Betts was nonetheless doing greater than sufficient on the opposite facet of the ball to justify his spot within the lineup. After splitting his 2023 season between proper subject (77 begins), second base (62 begins), and shortstop (12 begins), he began 61 video games at quick final yr plus one other 12 at second earlier than getting injured, then moved again to proper subject upon returning in mid-August. Decided to show that he may deal with shortstop, he labored laborious over the winter to enhance his footwork and his arm slots. It’s paid off, as his 17 DRS is tied with Taylor Partitions for the foremost league lead, and his 3 FRV is a minimum of pointed in the identical course. By comparability, final yr he had 3 DRS and -3 FRV at shortstop in a bit lower than half as many innings.

All of that purchased Betts loads of rope, however supervisor Dave Roberts began to confront the problem of the continuing droop after the All-Star break. He benched Betts for the workforce’s July 19 sport in opposition to the Brewers, then tried to jump-start him by flip-flopping him and Shohei Ohtani within the batting order. Lower than every week after that one-game benching, with the Dodgers visiting his previous Fenway Park hang-out, Betts flew dwelling to Tennessee to be together with his household after his stepfather handed away. Upon returning, he strung collectively back-to-back two-hit video games on July 28 and 29 in opposition to the Reds, however instantly adopted that with a career-worst 0-for-22 droop.

Throughout that slide, Betts met with former Crimson Sox and Dodgers teammate J.D. Martinez for some swing pointers in Tampa. He additionally solicited recommendation from teammate Freddie Freeman, who noticed to Fox Sports activities’ Rowan Kavner, “His shoulders have been tilted up an excessive amount of for me. When he was swinging, his left shoulder was larger than his proper.”

Lastly in early August, Betts emerged from his droop, his bat exhibiting indicators of life as he elevated the ball with larger consistency. “To not get into all the main points of it, however the massive factor is he’s contained in the baseball,” Dodgers hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc instructed Kavner. “So, when he’s out in entrance, he drives it within the air, not on the bottom on the pull facet.”

Betts ran off an eight-game hitting streak from August 5–13, batting .400/.447/.543. On August 8, he homered off Max Scherzer, his first homer since July 5, and one which stirred up a recollection of his stepfather. “Each dwelling run I’ve ever hit he’s at all times texted me, ‘Dwelling run Mookie time!’” Betts mentioned afterwards. “That’s simply what he says after which it has the variety of homers after. Not getting that textual content was unhappy.”

That night time, Betts admitted, “I simply acquired misplaced and I spiraled. It’s the primary time I’ve ever spiraled like that. I used to be in new territory in a droop like this.” He let go of concern about his statistics:

“My season’s form of over. We’re going to need to chalk that up as not an awesome season… However I can exit and assist the boys win each night time, do one thing, get an RBI, make a play, do one thing that I’m going to need to shift my focus there… You simply fear about sport to sport.”

Since August 5, Betts has hit .352/.408/.578 (178 wRC+), together with a 13-for-31 stretch with 4 homers from September 4–10 — in opposition to the Pirates, Orioles, and Rockies in what ought to have been a delicate a part of the schedule for the Dodgers — lifting his total line to a extra respectable .260/.328/.409 (105 wRC+) coming into play Friday.

Trying into his numbers, a number of issues stand out. Within the throes of his droop, Betts grew to become significantly susceptible to chasing pitches exterior the strike zone.

Betts is an exceptionally disciplined hitter, with a profession 19.9% chase price; he’s by no means even been above 24% in a season, so if he’s chasing 31.1% of pitches exterior the zone, or swinging at 52.4% of the pitches he sees, it’s an indication his method has collapsed. That’s principally the place he was in June and July. Take into account his rolling chase price:

At its peak on July 5, Betts was chasing 38.9% of pitches exterior the zone, as if he have been channeling a hacker like Nick Castellanos or Javier Báez. He’s solely had one comparable spike in his profession, throughout 2015, his first full season.

Betts has been significantly susceptible to chasing breaking pitches this season; final yr, he chased 24% of sliders and 20.3% of curves exterior the zone, whereas this yr these charges have risen to 38.8% and 34.8%. His efficiency in opposition to breaking pitches has set profession worsts for each batting common (.197) and slugging proportion (.361), down from .250 AVG/.478 SLG final yr. Towards the biggest subset of these pitches, sliders (which accounted for 14.5% of all pitches he confronted final yr and 15.7% this yr), he’s dropped from .314 AVG/.657 SLG to .200 AVG/.368 SLG, together with his whiff price in opposition to them rising from 20.9% to 24.5%.

Shifting on, each Betts’ bat-tracking knowledge and get in touch with knowledge help the notion that he’s stronger now than he was firstly of the season, when he’d misplaced weight on account of his sickness. He’s not a hitter who swings laborious fairly often lately, with final yr’s common bat pace of 69.0 mph inserting within the thirteenth percentile and this yr, with the identical common, within the eleventh percentile. Right here’s the month-by-month breakdown:

Betts’ bat pace this month is 2.6 mph forward of the place it was in March and April, and his fast-swing price (the share of his swings which can be 75 mph or larger) has quadrupled throughout that span, together with his blast price almost tripling. Evaluating what got here earlier than July 31 to what’s come after, his fast-swing price has principally doubled, together with his squared-up and blast charges enhancing considerably.

The story is comparable with regards to his contact, as he’s lower his groundball price considerably:

Right here’s a month-to-month breakdown of his primary Statcast knowledge:

Betts’ batting common and slugging proportion have usually lagged effectively behind his Statcast anticipated numbers all season, making the meager contact from his first 4 months look even worse than it was. He was profitable in a really slap-tacular approach in August — word that 2% barrel price and .334 xBA — however has been punishing the ball in September. His total barrel price of 5.6% continues to be lower than half what it was in 2023 (12.4%). Trying again at his bat-tracking knowledge and get in touch with numbers for 2024, one may make the case that he was compromised when he returned from his damaged hand final August, however any notion of that harm carrying over into 2025 runs up in opposition to his .290/.387/.565 line with 4 homers, a 9.3% barrel price, and a .469 xSLG through the Dodgers’ championship run final fall.

Regardless of their A-list rotation lastly coming along with the returns of Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell from bouts of shoulder irritation, the Dodgers have been mediocre throughout Betts’ resurgence, going 19-18 for the reason that begin of August even whereas sustaining a three-game lead within the NL West. Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman, their massive three atop the lineup, have been the one regulars to put up a wRC+ of 100 or higher in that span. In the meantime, the slumps of in any other case dependable contributors corresponding to Will Smith, Teoscar Hernández, and Andy Pages have coincided with the lack of Max Muncy to an indirect pressure, and the persistence of Michael Conforto on the roster regardless of his season-long collapse:

All of this — together with a shaky bullpen — has left the Dodgers moderately susceptible as in comparison with years previous. Even when they maintain on to win their twelfth division title in 13 seasons, they face the prospect of enjoying a best-of-three Wild Card Collection for the primary time for the reason that new format was launched in 2022, as they’re 4 video games behind the Phillies (84-60) within the race for the second seed. These aren’t final yr’s Dodgers, and this isn’t final yr’s Betts, however their odds of one other deep playoff run are nonetheless higher now that their shortstop has discovered his stroke.