Let’s Think about a Completely different Coby Mayo

Yearly, the Baltimore Orioles end up a crop of strapping younger hitters who simply obtained completed obliterating minor league pitching. You’ve most likely heard of lots of them. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg, Samuel Basallo, the listing goes on. All six of these guys shall be on a regular basis regulars subsequent 12 months; the one purpose they aren’t now could be as a result of Rutschman and Westburg are on the IL. However misplaced in that percolation of prospects is Coby Mayo, whose early main league profession hasn’t fairly gone as anticipated. I puzzled why – and what Mayo may do to capitalize on his promise.

A 12 months in the past, Mayo was comprehensively dominating pitchers meaningfully older than him. He posted a 139 wRC+ in Triple-A at age 22, following up on an equally scintillating 2023 season. He was a preseason Prime 100 prospect. His uncooked energy was instantly evident to all observers. He seemed like he’d be a key piece of the 2025 Orioles’ playoff run. However that run by no means materialized, and neither did Mayo’s thumping, mid-lineup offense. As a substitute, he’s hitting .184/.259/.327 and batting ninth for the last-place Birds.

If you happen to watch Mayo play, one factor jumps off the web page: his unconventional uppercut swing. I’m not even fairly certain the way to describe it, however right here’s a video of it at its finest:

Swing mechanics aren’t my space of experience, so I’ll simply say it has somewhat funk to it and transfer on. The purpose is that he makes use of that swing to clobber the ball, and he actually does accomplish what he units out to, dangerous season however. He has elite bat pace, and even on this depressing season, he’s posted good uncooked energy indicators; his EV90, barrel fee, and launch angle recommend that he’s going to be elevating and celebrating a lot through the years to come back.

Any Mayo wishcasting has to take that chief power under consideration. What’s it going to appear like if Coby Mayo is an All-Star? There are most likely going to be lots of dwelling runs and doubles concerned, because of an absolute mountain of fly balls and line drives. There are going to be strikeouts, too. Have a look at that swing once more. There’s a purpose Mayo’s minor league strikeout fee hovered round 25% even whereas he was posting glorious outcomes.

Nice, cool, we are able to work with that. The “slugger who strikes out so much” archetype encompasses lots of baseball’s finest gamers. Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Decide, and Cal Raleigh are among the many sport’s prime hitters, they usually all strike out greater than the league common. Throw in Kyle Schwarber, Rafael Devers, and Matt Olson should you’d like. And I may preserve going; 16 of the highest 30 hitters in baseball this 12 months have a higher-than-average strikeout fee.

If we’re going to make Mayo nice whereas protecting his strikeouts, we’re going to must do one thing in regards to the contact high quality. It’s one factor to strike out 30% of the time, and one other solely to strike out 30% of the time whereas hitting a measly .276 with a .490 slug whenever you put the ball in play. That’s not BABIP, as a result of it counts homers; league common wOBA on contact is round .370, and Mayo clocks in round .325. You’ll be able to’t be a growth/bust slugger in case your contact isn’t booming. Mayo’s top-line information all appears to be like good, however he’s not attending to his finest contact usually sufficient to flatter his batting line.

The place does Mayo do harm? Over the center of the plate, naturally. Right here’s a map of his slugging share on balls in play primarily based on pitch location:

Positive, certain, appears good. The redder the world, the extra energy he’s producing, and although there are absolutely pattern dimension points given his restricted main league taking part in time, I completely purchase the conclusion. Like most gamers, Mayo does his finest work on pitches over the center of the plate. Barely much less like most gamers, he likes the ball middle-in. That’s marginally unusual for somebody with plus energy – these guys usually prefer to get prolonged on middle-away pitches – however he’s fairly pull oriented, with not a single considered one of his seven homers going to the other subject. Chalk it as much as the swing, maybe, however I feel it’s truthful to say that somebody together with his lofted swing, plus bat pace, and pull strategy ought to look to seek out balls that he can elevate and pull.

The place does he swing? Center-away, like most of his high-power brethren:

That appears so much like several variety of different elite sluggers. The issue is that Mayo’s harm on contact doesn’t resemble theirs. Think about splitting the center of the plate into two halves, inside and out of doors. Separate the halves by drawing a line proper down the center of the plate. It’s simple to see which one is extra conducive to his plan of accruing additional bases within the air:

Now, please don’t take these numbers as conclusive. It’s about 35 batted balls a facet, far too few to be a secure measure of his manufacturing. However even when the precise numbers are noisy, the form of the sample is hanging. Whether or not it’s the swing, the stance, the strategy, or one thing that may’t be boiled all the way down to a easy description, Mayo hasn’t proven the opposite-field barrel talent that could be a frequent results of elite bat pace. Even worse, he has a 43% groundball fee on middle-away pitches, in comparison with 26.5% on middle-in. Slug is within the air.

Truthfully, that’s nice information for our venture. Wish to repair Mayo? Cease him from rolling over pitches on the outer half. Given the large discrepancy in groundball fee, the most probably downside right here is that an excessive amount of of Mayo’s middle-away contact comes on pitches he can’t deal with. It’s additionally dangerous information for our venture, although, as a result of Mayo’s biggest weak spot is an lack of ability to put off sliders, and the correct/proper sliders he faces most frequently disproportionately find yourself on the outer half of the plate. In graphical kind, right here’s the place pitchers throw him sliders:

And listed below are his swing choices when going through these:

In plain English, pitchers incessantly throw it to his weakest spot, and he swings a ton there although he doesn’t do a lot when he connects.

Oh, a weak spot to sliders? Very unoriginal, Ben. Each hitter is weak towards sliders. That’s why pitchers throw sliders! However severely, Mayo is especially weak to that individual breaking pitch, and the league is aware of it. There have been 331 hitters who’ve seen 750 or extra pitches this 12 months. Solely two of them, Jorge Soler and Logan O’Hoppe, have seen sliders at a better fee than Mayo’s 32.4% mark. He has the seventh-worst efficiency out of those self same 331 hitters towards sliders, and that’s on a per-pitch foundation. Sliders are burying Mayo, in different phrases.

I’m assured that I’ve remoted the important thing subject holding Mayo again from replicating his minor league success. Now we simply want to show our data right into a plan. You would possibly suppose that the reply can be “swing much less.” Swinging much less tends to enhance a batter’s capability to pick out pitches; the choosier they’re, the extra usually they select a very good pitch to hit. The issue is that Mayo already lives by the “swing much less” philosophy. He’s within the seventeenth percentile for early-count zone swing fee, my favourite aggression proxy. He’s much more selective towards in-zone breaking balls in these counts, within the fifth percentile for swing fee.

To recap, Mayo has a difficulty with sliders, and he has that subject regardless of being very picky on the plate. Which may sound like an unsolvable riddle, however there’s an Alexandrian answer: begin swinging extra. Sure, the large gap in Mayo’s sport has been an lack of ability to seek out pitches to drive. Sure, he’s placing up poor numbers even when he makes contact over the center of the plate. Nonetheless, although: extra swings, please.

It sounds incorrect, however right here’s why I feel it might work. If you wish to hit a fastball within the strike zone, it’s best to both get forward within the depend like Juan Soto or assault early like Bryce Harper. The Soto plan might be bold for Mayo; he’s chasing extra usually than league common regardless of swinging at strikes much less usually than league common. Now, it’s not like Mayo has the strike zone judgment and innate really feel for hitting of among the best hitters of the twenty first century both, however he can nonetheless study one thing from Harper’s strategy.

Listed below are some information. Within the first two pitches of Mayo’s plate appearances this 12 months, 33% of the pitches he’s seen have been fastballs within the strike zone. In impartial hitting counts – fewer than three balls, fewer than two strikes – that fee is 33% once more. It falls to 21% with two strikes, although, and 19% when there are extra strikes than balls within the depend total. Pitchers aren’t dummies – they’ve all learn the scouting report, they usually all throw nasty sliders today. He sees roughly 40% sliders after he’s behind within the depend.

Due to his weak spot towards breaking balls, Mayo has been just about doomed after falling behind within the depend. In run worth phrases, solely Michael A. Taylor has had worse outcomes after falling behind, even relative to the league’s total poor efficiency in pitchers’ counts. Few hitters have been worse than Mayo with two strikes. Mix a giant swing with a weak spot towards breaking balls and also you’re gonna be in for a tough time.

The Magical Christmas Land answer, the place all the things works completely, is for Mayo to appropriate that down-in-count weak spot. I’m taken with actual world options, although. Why not simply swing extra usually on the early-count fastballs? That appears too simple, and there are after all loads of downsides to that strategy, however it nonetheless looks as if an excellent choice to me.

Hitters train warning early within the depend to get forward late. It’s an excellent concept, however it’s not working for Mayo. He will get forward within the depend about as usually as Luis Robert Jr. or Jeff McNeil, which is to say not fairly often. He’s keen to take a pitch, which is half of the equation, however pitchers aren’t cooperating. On the primary pitch of the at-bat, pitchers are treating him like a slap hitter; his 60.2% zone fee to steer off at-bats is within the 93rd percentile. As we’ve already coated, he’s ultra-selective in these counts. The outcome? Loads of known as strikes and hard counts. As we’ve additionally already coated, Mayo is without doubt one of the worst hitters in baseball when down within the depend. Not nice, Bob.

Many nice hitters take known as strikes at a excessive clip. None of these guys have an unlimited two-strike gap of their sport, although. These guys additionally aren’t going through huge zone charges and assault mindsets on the mound. The entice Mayo has discovered himself on this 12 months is comprehensible. His two-strike manufacturing is terrible, so he’s attempting his hardest to keep away from chasing dangerous pitches and placing himself into robust counts. His solely miscalculation has been that it takes two to tango.

My idealized model of Mayo swings early and sometimes. He would possibly find yourself in additional disadvantageous counts, and that’s after all dangerous. However he’ll additionally do far more harm when he connects, as a result of that’s how hitting works. Mayo’s personal outcomes this 12 months inform the story. When there are neither three balls nor two strikes within the depend, his contact high quality is nice; he has a .624 slugging share and is producing at a .403 wOBACON clip, with peripheral batted ball information supporting the truth that he’s making good loud contact. His contact with two strikes is way worse: .429 slugging share, .222 wOBACON, barrel and hard-hit charges halved.

In different phrases, no extra of this:

And undoubtedly no extra of this:

Is that this a silver bullet answer? Positively not. Truthfully, if his 2025 outcomes towards sliders signify Mayo’s true expertise stage, there’s most likely no fixing that. However let’s say he’s simply backyard selection dangerous towards sliders on a going-forward foundation, in order that we are able to proceed imagining a greater future. That potential enchancment towards sliders received’t matter until he figures out a strategy to take extra swings at hittable fastballs. An influence hitter with a strikeout downside is one factor. An influence hitter with a strikeout downside who usually waits to swing till there are two strikes is one thing else altogether.

Hitting is tough in the most effective of circumstances. Mayo’s choices have made his personal circumstances worse, although. These two dangerous takes I confirmed up above have been pivotal, and in addition consultant. In every case, the pitcher obtained forward within the depend simply and began working the surface edge with harder pitches. Mayo went down simply as simply every time, on a known as strikeout and a weak grounder. Two movies of dangerous takes don’t show some extent – however, effectively, Mayo’s season doesn’t precisely show that his present strategy is working, both. I can think about a gloriously Mayo-filled future, and as I envision it, he’s a swing-first demolisher who figured sliders out simply sufficient to show fastballs into souvenirs at an enviable fee.