The Crimson Sox started working on their 2026 bullpen over the vacation weekend, signing nearer Aroldis Chapman to a contract extension that retains him in Boston for a minimum of yet one more season. Chapman’s one-year, $13.3 million deal comes within the type of a $12 million wage for subsequent season, a $1 million signing bonus, and a $300,000 buyout if a $13 million mutual choice for 2027 isn’t exercised. That choice turns into assured if he pitches 40 innings in 2026 and passes a bodily examination after the season.
After showing to be in decline for a minimum of a couple of years and falling out of the dialog of baseball’s prime closers — and at instances dropping the nearer’s position altogether — Chapman is dominating in his first season with the Crimson Sox. Getting into play Tuesday, he has a 1.00 ERA and a 1.78 FIP over 54 innings with 77 strikeouts and 14 walks. No, you didn’t misinterpret that final half: Chapman has issued solely 14 free passes this season throughout 54 innings, which works out to a charge of seven.1% and a pair of.33 BB/9 — by far the bottom marks of his profession. Even at his best possible, Chapman would stroll three or 4 batters per 9 innings, an inexpensive trade-off for the remainder of his skillset. Nevertheless, as he aged, that management degraded, and from 2021 by means of 2024, he walked 15% of the batters he confronted. So, for him to instantly put up the perfect management season of his profession, at age 37, is a formidable feat.
ESPN’s Buster Olney talked a bit about how Chapman’s strategy modified within the spring, however the primary rationalization for what we’re seeing is he has stopped throwing his fastball down the center. As an alternative, on the recommendation of Boston catcher Connor Wong and with the help of PitchCom, Chapman is now really making an attempt to identify his heater. Whereas that is the kind of anecdote that typically seems like folklore, the information do counsel that Chapman is instantly finding his fastball with dramatically extra competence than prior to now. In line with Stuff+, Chapman’s Location+ of 179 for his fastball is the fifth-best quantity ever tallied (min. 40 innings), in comparison with the 94 he ran over his previous 4 seasons. His sinker, as soon as a sideshow in his repertoire, has turn out to be its point of interest in the way in which the slider as soon as was. This isn’t a sinker thrown to induce a groundball however to be an out pitch, a 100-mph sinker excessive and out of doors in opposition to righties, excessive and exhausting on the fingers of lefties. Just one participant in Statcast historical past has ever completed with a greater whiff charge on his sinker than Chapman’s 38.9% this season: Josh Hader in 2019 (40.7%) and 2021 (40.5%).
Chapman has additionally simplified his strategy. Lately, he had been mucking round with the slider in early counts greater than prior to now, however this yr, he’s throwing first-pitch fastballs or sinkers about 85% of the time. That has resulted in a 71.1% first-pitch strike share this season, almost 10 share factors above his earlier excessive of 61.9% in 2017.
By all stories, Chapman has loved taking part in with the Crimson Sox, and this seems to ring true in that regardless of his elite season, he’s solely getting a minor bump in yearly wage for this extension, and solely a one-year assure at signing. Even at his age, I believe he would have finished higher in free company. If this had been three or 4 many years in the past, Chapman can be a severe Cy Younger contender, however as reduction outings have gotten shorter, it’s turn out to be harder for closers to win the award. Final yr, Emmanuel Clase grew to become the primary reliever to complete prime three within the Cy Younger voting since Francisco Rodríguez in 2008. Eric Gagne is the latest reliever to win a Cy Younger, all the way in which again in 2003. This is without doubt one of the the explanation why the BBWAA just lately voted to create a brand new Reliever of the 12 months award, beginning subsequent season.
ZiPS Projection – Aroldis Chapman
| 12 months | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | 2 | 2.96 | 55 | 0 | 48.7 | 35 | 16 | 4 | 21 | 73 | 145 | 1.0 |
| 2027 | 4 | 3 | 3.42 | 55 | 0 | 47.3 | 37 | 18 | 5 | 22 | 68 | 126 | 0.7 |
ZiPS sees no explicit purpose to fret about Chapman. Even with the stroll charge not projected to remain this low and the impossibility of any pitcher sustaining a .175 BABIP within the majors, Chapman nonetheless tasks as a superb nearer in 2026, much better than he was from 2021-2024. There may be some draw back threat right here, with Chapman approaching 40 and relievers being unstable — ZiPS offers him a 23% probability of posting an ERA of 4.50 or worse — however the Crimson Sox accounted for that chance on this deal. ZiPS additionally tasks Chapman to have a 70% probability at turning into the ninth participant in main league historical past to notch 400 saves.
There’s been lots of participant motion out and in of Boston lately, however the 2026 squad already appears quite a bit like the present roster, and with Chapman now signed, Justin Wilson and Rob Refsnyder are the one two gamers who began the season with the Crimson Sox which can be slated to hit free company this winter. Their bullpen this season ranks third in baseball in ERA, fifth in FIP, and second in WAR. With this signing, the Crimson Sox have now secured the return of the pitcher most chargeable for making that occur.