The Mets swept the Phillies this week, which made headlines for 2 causes: First, the Mets have now gained 10 straight towards the Phillies at Citi Subject, relationship again to final September, and together with Video games 3 and 4 of final 12 months’s NLDS. If the Phillies don’t win a recreation there within the playoffs, they don’t face the Mets in New York once more till the final weekend of June 2026. A possible 21-month dropping streak at a divisional rival is hard to swallow, although it’s good to see that everybody’s being tremendous regular about it.
Second, it saved the NL East race alive. The Phillies entered this division matchup seven video games up with 32 to play; had they gained the collection, they might’ve principally had the division title within the bag. Because it stands now, they’re up 5, with the Mets coming to Philadelphia for a four-game set in mid-September. The Phillies are nonetheless 3-to-1 favorites, based on our playoff odds, nevertheless it’s an actual pennant race now.
However this sweep is most necessary for a cause that went a little bit below the radar. Whereas the Mets have been beating seven shades of you-know-what out of the Phillies, the Dodgers have been doing the identical to the Reds in Los Angeles.
In three video games, the Dodgers outscored the Reds 18-4. They solely trailed after 4 out of 51 half-innings within the collection, and by no means by greater than a single run. It was not the efficiency the Reds wanted, particularly since they entered the collection a recreation and a half behind the Mets for the final NL Wild Card spot.
Cincinnati nonetheless had loads of work to do, however with the Mets coming to Ohio for a three-game set on the finish of subsequent week, the Reds nonetheless managed their very own playoff future. That’s not the case anymore, because the pair of sweeps stretched New York’s result in 4 1/2 video games. When the solar rose on Thursday, the NL playoff standings regarded like this:
Submit-Sweep NL Playoff Odds
| Group | W | L | W% | Div. GB | WC GB | Playoff Odds | 7-Day Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 83 | 51 | .619 | 0 | — | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Dodgers | 77 | 57 | .575 | 0 | — | 100.0% | 0.2% |
| Cubs | 76 | 57 | .571 | 6.5 | +4 | 99.6% | 1.0% |
| Phillies | 76 | 57 | .571 | 0 | — | 99.7% | 0.0% |
| Padres | 75 | 59 | .560 | 2 | +2.5 | 99.4% | 0.9% |
| Mets | 72 | 61 | .541 | 4 | 0 | 96.8% | 18.2% |
| Reds | 68 | 66 | .507 | 15 | 4.5 | 3.2% | 15.1% |
The Reds had been nursing playoff odds within the teenagers since about mid-June, and on August 21, Cincinnati had an 18.4% likelihood of creating the postseason. Since then, they’ve dropped six of seven, together with the sweep by the hands of the Dodgers, and seen their playoff odds fall to 4.4%.
And whereas there’s nonetheless a lot to combat for when it comes to seeding, together with comparatively shut divisional races within the East and West, that’s principally sayonara for the 2025 NL pennant race. Whereas the Reds are nonetheless technically alive, a sweep towards New York subsequent week is principally a must have. Even then, it’s unlikely… really, no have to guess, the Reds at the moment are a few 30-to-1 lengthy shot to make the playoffs.
It’s not even Labor Day but. How uncommon is it to have a league’s playoff spots spoken for this early? Effectively, we’ve received each day playoff odds on this web site relationship again to 2014, so let’s look. Let me outline some phrases first: The primary group out will not be the group that’s closest to a playoff spot, it’s the group with the very best playoff odds that may be in line to overlook the playoffs. And the “>10% Outsiders” column is the variety of groups outdoors the present playoff bracket which have 10% odds or extra of creating the postseason:
The Playoff Race on September 1
| 12 months | League | Playoff Spots | First Group Out | Odds | >10% Outsiders |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025* | AL | 6 | Royals | 14.6% | 1 |
| 2025* | NL | 6 | Reds | 3.3% | 0 |
| 2024 | AL | 6 | Crimson Sox | 15.5% | 1 |
| 2024 | NL | 6 | Mets | 29.6% | 1 |
| 2023 | AL | 6 | Blue Jays | 54.4% | 1 |
| 2023 | NL | 6 | Marlins | 14.9% | 3 |
| 2022 | AL | 6 | Twins | 43.7% | 3 |
| 2022 | NL | 6 | Brewers | 34.4% | 1 |
| 2021 | AL | 5 | Athletics | 17.2% | 1 |
| 2021 | NL | 5 | Phillies | 34.0% | 2 |
| 2020 | AL | 8 | Tigers | 28.4% | 1 |
| 2020 | NL | 8 | Brewers | 24.1% | 4 |
| 2019 | AL | 5 | Crimson Sox | 8.5% | 1 |
| 2019 | NL | 5 | Brewers/Mets | 12.8% | 2 |
| 2018 | AL | 5 | Mariners | 11.4% | 1 |
| 2018 | NL | 5 | Phillies | 42.6% | 3 |
| 2017 | AL | 5 | Angels | 31.6% | 4 |
| 2017 | NL | 5 | Brewers | 22.9% | 2 |
| 2016 | AL | 5 | Orioles | 31.7% | 2 |
| 2016 | NL | 5 | Mets | 25.9% | 2 |
| 2015 | AL | 5 | Twins | 18.4% | 3 |
| 2015 | NL | 5 | Nationals | 13.9% | 1 |
| 2014 | AL | 5 | Mariners | 36.5% | 1 |
| 2014 | NL | 5 | Braves | 36.4% | 2 |
*As of August 27, since I don’t have a time machine
If the Reds keep below 10% playoff odds by Monday, they’d be probably the most hopeless first runner up on September 1 in at the very least the previous decade. Even the Royals, whose footing is relatively strong at 14.6% playoff odds, have the sixth-lowest odds out of 24 entries on this checklist.
And there are a pair mitigating elements I need to level out: The primary group out within the 2019 AL was the Crimson Sox at 8.5%, however Oakland and Cleveland have been tied for the second Wild Card spot on the time, so the Reds’ equal within the 2019 AL, the A’s, really had a 52.2% likelihood of creating the postseason. There was one other September 1 Wild Card tie within the NL in 2023, between the Diamondbacks and Giants. In 2021, the Blue Jays had 9.9% playoff odds on September 1, so they simply missed the cutoff.
So the reply to the overarching query is not any, there has not been a playoff race so settled this early within the season as this 12 months’s Nationwide League. Not less than not up to now 12 seasons. There’s all the time been somebody with some hope in every league, even within the two-Wild Card rounds, and particularly in that hateful COVID-necessitated 16-team bracket from 2020.
Not this 12 months within the NL. Barely, this 12 months, within the AL.
That is the spot within the dialogue that begs for motion. There’s an issue — a scarcity of stretch run intrigue — so let’s resolve it by futzing with the playoff format.
Thus far, if there’s any of this discourse past the same old crank objections to the present system, I’m not conscious of it. However I need to get out in entrance of this dialogue earlier than we get to the third week of September, and the Royals have cooled off and the 2 remaining NL division races have been settled.
No, I say. No modifications to the playoff format.
This occurs yearly when the March Insanity and Faculty Soccer Playoff brackets come out, or when some 85-win main league group finally ends up one collection in need of a Wild Card berth, and it’s solely been enabled by the NBA’s ludicrous play-in ladder match.
There’s all the time at the very least one vivid line that separates the contenders from the no-hopers, and making an attempt to work backwards to suit the playoff format onto the standard of final 12 months’s league is a dropping proposition. Yearly, some respectable group will simply miss the playoffs. It’s why we’ve got the common season. Cope with it.
Truly, apparently not actually yearly. As a result of this 12 months, there appear to be six pretty evenly matched groups on the high of the Nationwide League standings, and 6 playoff spots to accommodate them. So don’t get mad if there’s nothing to play for during the last two weeks of the season. Which means the system labored completely.