By all rights, this needs to be a misplaced season for Daulton Varsho. The Toronto heart fielder missed the primary month of 2025 whereas rehabbing from offseason rotator cuff surgical procedure. He began his yr with a seven-game minor league rehab stint throughout which he batted .129 with no walks and no extra-base hits, good for a wRC+ of -29. Varsho obtained one month in Toronto, after which a strained hamstring stole one other two months from him. After seven extra video games within the minors, Varsho returned on August 1 and now has 20 extra video games below his belt. So simply to recap, Varsho’s season has gone: rehab for a month, play for a month, injured for 2 months, play for an additional month. He’s seen a grand complete of 44 video games of motion.
That’s not precisely sufficient time to get your bearings, particularly after a significant surgical procedure. At the very least, that wouldn’t be sufficient time for most individuals. Varsho is placing up the most effective numbers of his profession. He’d by no means topped a wRC+ of 106 in a single season, however he’s presently at 127. He’s already posted 1.5 WAR, and though he can solely get right into a most of 74 video games, he’s virtually sure to place up the third-most WAR of his profession. What makes all this even wilder is that Varsho solely heated up throughout this most up-to-date stint. He ran a 102 wRC+ earlier than the hamstring damage, and he’s at 161 since he returned. Because the cliché goes, getting Varsho again from the IL was Toronto’s greatest commerce deadline acquisition. Actually, on a per-PA foundation, Varsho has been a top-25 place participant, on tempo for 4.3 WAR over a traditional, 150-game season.
So what’s Varsho doing otherwise on this bizarre, bifurcated season? I’ll go over just a few adjustments afterward, however actually, not that a lot. He’s simply being himself, however his traits have been intensified over this quick timeframe. Varsho has all the time been an excessive lift-and-pull hitter with a really steep swing. He piles up house runs and strikeouts, and he runs low BABIPs regardless of his pace due to that homer-or-bust strategy. This season, he’s putting out greater than ever, hitting extra homers than ever, and operating a career-low BABIP. Varsho has all the time been one of many recreation’s true elite outfielders regardless of below-average arm energy. This season, he’s placing up bonkers defensive numbers although his arm has been one of many weakest in baseball thus far. It’s like we obtained the from-concentrate model of Daulton Varsho, however any person forgot so as to add water.
We received’t spend an excessive amount of time on Varsho’s protection. I assume you already know that he was arguably the most effective defenders within the recreation earlier than he obtained harm (and in case you didn’t, this text Ben Clemens wrote three weeks in the past will catch you up in a rush). He’s nonetheless the identical man. He already ranks seventeenth amongst all outfielders in DRS and fifteenth in OAA. We shouldn’t learn an excessive amount of into defensive metrics over such a small pattern, nevertheless it’s apparent that Varsho continues to be one of many recreation’s best possible fielders. As for his arm, his hardest throw this season is 77 mph. Final season, his common was 83.7 mph, which put him in simply the fortieth percentile. Clearly, we have to account for the probability that following the surgical procedure, Varsho both doesn’t have all his energy again or doesn’t need to take a look at the shoulder simply but. That may very well be tamping down the numbers quickly, nevertheless it’s undoubtedly one thing to observe subsequent yr.
The large motive Varsho has been having such an important season on the plate is that thus far, 27.3% of his fly balls have left the park. He got here into 2025 with a profession mark of 12.6%. That quantity should come down in the end. That’s to not say that Varsho hasn’t earned his 15 homers, although. He completely has. Baseball Savant offers him an anticipated house run complete of 14.4, and it doesn’t mark any of his house runs as “doubters.” He’s actually crushing the ball, and in a second, I’ll argue that he might have reached a barely increased echelon when it comes to uncooked energy. However we in all probability shouldn’t change our opinion of who Varsho is as a hitter. Over his six seasons and 620 video games, that is the fifth time he’s put up a 134 wRC+ or higher over a 44-game stretch and the fourth time he’s topped 180 over a 20-game stretch. Not solely has he been right here earlier than, he’s carried out this considerably repeatedly. My first draft of this text included a bunch extra enjoyable numbers, however Varsho went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts and misplaced a run in keeping with DRS and OAA, which blew all of them up. That’s what occurs over a stretch this quick.
Gamers who specialize within the Three True Outcomes are usually streaky. They crush homers once they’re in a great place and strike out once they’re not. Varsho received’t keep in this type of groove eternally, particularly when he’s putting out practically 30% of the time. Nobody may. He’s operating an absurd .350 remoted slugging share. His profession excessive earlier than this was .207. Earlier this season, I wrote about how an absurdly excessive share of Cal Raleigh’s hits had been house runs. Varsho has formally tied him at 41.67%:
Most Dwelling Runs Per Hit
Observe: Minimal 150 PAs.
Varsho has his personal opinion about why he can’t cease hitting homers. “I believe the ‘why’ is as a result of I’m attempting to get above fastballs,” Varsho advised reporters just a few weeks in the past. “Then clearly, when the off-speed comes, I’m simply clipping them beneath. I’m not attempting to do something completely different. I’m not attempting to hit homers. I’m attempting to hit a groundball proper again to the pitcher, to be sincere. It’s about with the ability to be quick and fast to the ball and the facility will come. I’ve stated it from the get go. If I can simply management that, good issues are going to occur.”
Partly, that’s a traditional strategy: attempting to drive the fastball to the massive a part of the sphere, which lets you pull softer stuff. Swinging above the ball can be a standard cue on this age of super-flat four-seamers. Nonetheless, that is the primary time I’ve heard anybody say that swinging above the fastball additionally permits them to do a greater job of happening and getting below offspeed stuff. Along with his steep swing, Varsho has all the time been higher towards low pitches, and that has stayed true this season.
So we’re in all probability not seeing a model new model of Varsho. His strategy could also be driving this explosion, or he may simply be seeing the ball effectively. He did run a a lot increased swing fee on pitches within the zone again in Could, nevertheless it’s come again down in August. He largely appears like Daulton Varsho. That by itself is fairly spectacular, contemplating the way in which accidents have disrupted his season.
Having stated all that, right here’s why I don’t assume it’s too early to say that Varsho may need leveled up his energy. First, Varsho is swinging the bat more durable than he did final season or in the course of the second half of 2023. Even in case you management for all of the elements concerned in bat pace by trying solely at pitches over the guts of the plate, or solely at hard-hit balls, or whiffs, or sure pitch sorts, his bat is quicker. He’s additionally reached a brand new max exit velocity. On Could 13, he hit one ball 113.9 mph and one other 113.6 mph, each effectively above his earlier profession excessive of 112.5 mph. Third, Varsho’s Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity is quicker too. At 107.7 mph, it’s a full tick and a half quicker than his earlier mark of 106.2 mph in 2023. I pulled each ball Varsho has hit over 105 mph in his whole profession. Thus far, 7% of his tracked batted balls have come this season. If he had been crushing the ball on the identical fee as typical, we’d anticipate that 7% of his batted balls over 105 mph have come this season too. As a substitute, that quantity is 15%. It’s greater than twice as excessive. We’re nonetheless speaking a few small pattern, however that is one thing to observe. Varsho actually may be extra highly effective than he was earlier than.