We spend lots of time right here at FanGraphs writing about breakouts. A participant who’s all of the sudden figured it out represents each an thrilling piece of reports and an opportunity to dive into the nuances of pitching or hitting. Studying and writing about that topic so usually makes you choose up on sure patterns. Right now, our topic is Mets infielder Brett Baty, who hasn’t performed sufficient to qualify and who hasn’t damaged out in an enormous manner, but who’s fascinating as a result of his breakout doesn’t fairly match the patterns we’re used to seeing.
A former 55 FV prospect who ranked nineteenth on our 2023 Prime 100 record, Baty got here into the season with a 71 wRC+ over three seasons and 602 whole plate appearances. He’s 25, and he’s had an up-and-down profession, mashing his manner up the Mets system after which struggling upon his promotion to Flushing. He’s obtained an .889 OPS within the minors and .654 within the majors. Should you had been to ask a Mets fan what Baty wanted to do with a view to succeed this season, they in all probability would have mentioned he wanted to place the ball within the air extra and he wanted to cease placing out a lot.
Over 326 plate appearances this season coming into play Thursday, Baty has 15 dwelling runs, matching his profession whole from the beginning of the yr, and a 107 wRC+. These are large enhancements. However he’s completed that regardless of persevering with to strike out an excessive amount of and operating a career-low launch angle. That’s not the one thriller. Baty is hitting the ball more durable, going from a mean exit velocity of 88.8 mph from 2022-24 to 90.8 mph in 2025. Including two ticks of EV is big. His hard-hit fee has additionally jumped from 40% to just about 47%. However as soon as once more, his elevated contact high quality doesn’t match the patterns we’re used to seeing.
After we see a participant’s common exit velocity go up, it normally goes up for certainly one of two causes. First, they might have developed extra top-end energy. When that’s the case, we see their Ninetieth-percentile EV tick up. Baty’s EV90 this season is 106.9 mph. That’s precisely the identical because the profession mark he had earlier than the season. Though he has hit the toughest ball of his profession this season, I don’t assume we are able to say he has discovered a brand new gear. The second possibility is that the participant might lower out the mishits. Baty hasn’t actually completed that both. In response to Sports activities Data Options, he’s operating a 19.5% soft-hit fee, in comparison with 15.2% over the three earlier years. Statcast tells us that 24% of Baty’s batted balls in 2025 have been beneath 80 mph, in comparison with 26.7% in earlier seasons. These are the 2 traditional methods of bettering your EV – elevating the ceiling or spending much less time on the ground – and Baty hasn’t completed both. That simply leaves the contact within the center.
The blue line on this graph falls off a cliff. Baty hasn’t unlocked a brand new gear of energy, and his mishit fee is roughly the identical. It’s simply that he’s turned lots of that medium contact into exhausting contact. I broke down his exit velocity percentiles to point out you what I imply.
These two traces keep very shut to one another for everything of the graph. The largest variations come proper across the thirty fifth and fifty fifth percentiles. That’s an enormous deal as a result of Baty hits the all-important hard-hit threshold of 95 mph proper across the fiftieth percentile. So though he’s not blasting extra balls at 107 mph, he’s nonetheless hitting extra balls that may do actual injury. Baty has cranked up his median contact degree by rising his common bat velocity and his squared-up fee. That’s a fantastic two-fer, but it surely’s not all the time straightforward to do these issues as the identical time. Swinging more durable and squaring the ball up are inclined to work in opposition, however the context issues right here. Baty’s bat velocity is up not as a result of he can swing more durable – of the ten hardest-tracked swings of his profession, six have come this season and 4 occurred in earlier seasons – however as a result of he’s swinging exhausting extra usually. He’s dropped his chase fee and is swinging at higher pitches.
This is able to even be an excellent time to say that Baty’s swing is totally totally different. He’s has narrowed his stance by greater than 12 inches, closed it by 4 levels, began turning his entrance foot inward like Juan Soto, and added a leg kick. He’s made lots of adjustments – which tends to occur whenever you’re struggling for a number of years to catch on within the majors – and we’re not completed. Baty’s swing can also be a lot, a lot flatter this season, and to some extent, it’s as a result of he’s utterly altered his method. He’s rather more targeted on increased pitches on the interior half, which naturally lead to flatter swings as a result of he’s not happening to get the ball.
This can be a large change, and there’s extra. Baty is catching the ball a lot, a lot deeper and hitting the ball the opposite manner rather more usually. As soon as once more, his pitch choice is informing this to a point – excessive, inside pitches are particularly exhausting to get round on, so their intercept level might be deeper – however he’s nonetheless an outlier right here. Should you break up the strike zone into thirds and have a look at each left-handed hitter with no less than 25 balls in play on excessive pitches which are both inside or over the center, Baty’s 18.5% pull fee ranks 91st out of 95 batters.
The unusual factor is that Baty’s intercept level is very deep when he’s taking his finest swings. Should you have a look at hard-hit balls, his common intercept level has dropped from 28.9 inches in entrance of him in 2024 all the way down to 25.7 inches in 2025. Should you have a look at pitches over the guts of the plate, it’s fallen from 28.6 inches all the best way to 23.3. In all, his common intercept level is 25.6 inches, deeper than 89% of all batters (minimal 500 pitches seen). He’s dropped from the fortieth percentile to the eleventh. By any commonplace, he’s catching the ball extraordinarily deep. That’s not normally a recipe for elevated energy. After we consider hitters who catch the ball deep, we take into consideration contact hitters who keep again and spray the ball the opposite manner. However regardless of his many struggles to benefit from it, Baty possesses the type of bat velocity that performs to all fields. Like anyone, he hits the ball more durable to the pull facet, however he hits the ball exhausting sufficient that he doesn’t have to tug it to do injury. Right here he’s smashing an inside pitch into the left discipline hole for a double.
These are so, so many adjustments. Baty’s stance is totally different. His timing mechanisms are totally different. He’s swinging more durable at totally different pitches, assembly the ball deeper, and pulling it much less. And he’s nonetheless not elevating all of it that rather more than he did earlier than. He’s made so many changes over the previous few years that it’s exhausting to know the place one begins and one other ends, not to mention which of them could possibly be answerable for his improved efficiency. Possibly he would have figured issues out with out all of the change if he’d simply provide you with a crew that might afford to let him play by his early struggles. Even now, it’s straightforward to take a look at Baty and anticipate larger issues. He’s manner too affected person and manner too highly effective to place up a 107 wRC+. However he’s additionally taken simply 326 plate appearances this season. It’s not precisely a large enough pattern to say that that is undoubtedly who he’s as a hitter. Possibly he’ll get to one more degree or perhaps he’ll regress some. Nonetheless, operating an above-average batting line is an enormous step ahead.