Right here’s Nick Pivetta’s signature pitch:
Or perhaps it’s this one, full with a skip-off:
OK, the person simply likes skipping:
You would possibly surprise why all of his signature pitches are tossed down the center for referred to as strikeouts. That’s as a result of Pivetta is the league chief in a statistic I didn’t know I beloved till I seemed it up: referred to as strikeouts on pitches proper down the pipe. He’s the 2025 chief. He’s the chief over the previous 5 years, the truth is. Maintain your reality-distorting sweepers and letter-high four-seamers; Pivetta will get the job finished extra merely.
This appears like an inconceivable talent to domesticate. You hear on a regular basis about pitchers going right into a lab someplace and including velocity or spin. New pitches? They’re a dime a dozen lately. A starter who hasn’t added a sweeper and cutter stands proud like a sore thumb now that know-how and coaching make it simpler than ever to department out. Yearly, the sliders get slidier, the curveballs get curvier, and the fastballs get sooner. In the meantime, Pivetta throws 94-mph “heaters” down the center for strike three. How??
A few of it’s simply audacity. Take that first strikeout, a grooved cutter to a man with 99th-percentile bat pace. Jordan Walker chases an excessive amount of and doesn’t make sufficient contact when he swings. Nobody of their proper thoughts would throw him a fastball down the center in an 0-2 depend. He’s seen 89 0-2 pitches this yr; 5 of them have been fastballs over the guts of the plate. You possibly can forgive him for not anticipating the problem.
A few of it’s sequencing. Let’s follow that Walker strikeout. Of their first assembly of the sport, Pivetta pounded Walker with breaking balls away, 4 out of the six pitches within the at-bat. Of their second assembly, Pivetta hung a sweeper up and away, however Walker hit it into the bottom for an out. The matchup appeared to largely be about Pivetta’s spin towards Walker’s potential to put off it.
To begin our fateful at-bat, Pivetta threw Walker two four-seam fastballs, each excessive and on the internal half. Walker’s an enormous league hitter; he can put two and two collectively and anticipate a diving sweeper. After which Pivetta broke out the spin! But it surely was a cutter, which mimics slider spin however stays true in its flight path as an alternative of breaking and diving. Walker held himself again like he was making an attempt his hardest to not swing over a pitch within the dust – however the pitch was down the pipe. Checkmate.
All of Pivetta’s referred to as strikeouts have equally believable explanations. Jose Herrera received a gradual dose of low curveballs early, so he didn’t anticipate a excessive curveball late. Jon Berti was enthusiastic about the surface nook as a result of Pivetta had been attacking him there, so he too laid off anticipating one thing flexible. You possibly can undergo all of Pivetta’s 22 (twenty two!) referred to as strikeouts on middle-middle pitches this season and discover some form of narrative.
In fact, I might make these narratives up about virtually any sequence. There are such a lot of counterfactuals and Princess Bride-style ranges of pondering that nearly any order of pitches might theoretically result in a batter getting locked up in a two-strike depend. Three straight fastballs? Absolutely, he’d by no means throw a fourth. Three straight fastballs? Clearly, the pattern is your buddy, and one other one is coming. I’m not even certain which of these is extra compelling, which speaks to the issue of explaining by way of storytelling.
Extra related, then, is what broad abilities assist Pivetta accomplish this sleight of hand. Numerous pitchers combine up their choices and play one off of the others. Numerous pitchers have the identical fastball/slider/curveball/cutter combine. He doesn’t throw within the zone notably usually or notably hardly ever. His pitches aren’t noteworthy on the subject of retaining opposing bats on shoulders; his chase and in-zone swing charges are near league common. Opponents make contact at a mean price after they swing. The broad aggregates make Pivetta appear unremarkable, however he’s clearly doing one thing to bewilder opposing batters.
One Pivetta benefit: He’s extra daring than opposing hitters can probably think about. Out of 126 pitchers with sizable beginning workloads, Pivetta is eighth in heart-of-the-plate price in two-strike counts, within the 94th percentile. In different phrases, he’s throwing it down the center in unlikely conditions greater than virtually anybody else. In each depend that doesn’t function two strikes, Pivetta is lots nearer to common, with a 67th-percentile heart-zone price.
That backwards method is unquestionably making Pivetta’s stuff play up. You possibly can advance scout all you need, produce packet after packet that claims “be careful for this man sneaking you a fastball whenever you least anticipate it.” That’s all properly and good, however hitters have spent 1000’s of hours telling themselves to not fall for breaking balls in two-strike counts. They’ve spent 1000’s of hours swinging over these silly breaking balls in these silly two-strike counts and ending up with strikeouts for his or her troubles. They’ve informed themselves “don’t chase, don’t chase, please please don’t chase” underneath their breath. And then you definitely meet a man lobbing them down the center and your thoughts scrambles.
To be truthful, it’s not like half of Pivetta’s two-strike counts finish with him meatballing his option to a strikeout. He’s thrown 683 pitches in two-strike counts to rack up these 22 meatball referred to as strikeouts. When he ventures over the guts of the plate with two strikes, batters often swing; 87.4% of the time, to be exact. However that’s decrease than the league common swing price in that scenario (93%). The truth is, Pivetta’s mark is almost the bottom in baseball. Solely two out of the 114 pitchers who’ve tossed not less than 100 middle-middle pitches in two-strike counts are drawing swings much less often.
That sounds counterintuitive. Even weirder, the blokes who draw swings much less usually than he does additionally wish to flood the zone after they attain two-strike counts. My guess? It’s a range impact. Pitchers with the requisite sequencing, method, stuff, and deception to make batters short-circuit and watch strikes fly by naturally throw extra of those pitches. Why would they do the rest? It really works!
One prerequisite for making this work: the power to maneuver all your pitches across the plate. When you’re bouncing your curveball each single time, that makes the opposing hitter’s job lots simpler. Likewise, in the event you solely work low within the zone together with your fastball, the batter will be capable of eradicate potential choices and react to your low heater extra rapidly. Pivetta throws no matter he desires, wherever he desires. Check out the placement of the 500ish curveballs he’s thrown this yr:
One of the best ways to explain that form is “blob-like.” There’s no clear heart of mass, no clear path he’s spinning the curveballs alongside. There’s an enormous cluster up on the high of the zone, one other within the center, and loads of pitches bounced. He hits each space of the zone, and misses off every of the sides considerably symmetrically. The ball might find yourself wherever, in different phrases. Evaluate that to Framber Valdez, proprietor of among the finest curveballs there may be:
Valdez’s curve follows a sample. He has it on a string, dotting the low nook with frequency, and when he misses with it, he usually does so alongside that very same axis. From his lefty arm slot, you may consider his curveball as following a constant path homeward with occasional alterations. Valdez’s curveball is best than Pivetta’s, whether or not you’re a pitch mannequin, precise outcomes, and even the attention take a look at. However Pivetta’s is extra unpredictable, and sure, he attracts dangerous takes with it extra usually than Valdez attracts dangerous takes along with his.
All of Pivetta’s pitches are like that. Few pitchers throw extra excessive sweepers than he does, as a result of he strikes his goal round as an alternative of aiming low and glove facet. He makes use of his four-seamer everywhere in the zone. Not that he throws a ton of cutters, however when he does, you guessed it, it appears like a Rorschach take a look at:
I’ve shied away from telling you ways properly Pivetta does total on these grooved pitches with two strikes. Sure, he throws them lots. Sure, he racks up a ton of referred to as strikeouts in consequence. However is the trade-off good? Batters solely swing at 87% of those pitches, however 87% is lots! Alternatively, 22 referred to as strikeouts is lots, too. It’s a troublesome query. Assume it over. When you do, right here’s Dominic Smith taking two pipe-shot fastballs:
The reply: It’s extremely efficient! All of his heart-zone pitches in two-strike counts, those that draw takes and those that draw swings, have added as much as 11 runs of worth this season. In different phrases, the outcomes he’s gotten from them have prevented 11 runs relative to what a mean pitcher would have given up in these conditions. That’s tied for one of the best mark within the majors with Max Fried, himself a connoisseur of sudden strike zone assaults. He’s been six runs above common per 100 such choices, a totally unsustainable price. Nobody’s six runs above common per 100 pitches in the long term – take into consideration what number of runs the common pitcher permits per 100 pitches and also you’ll perceive why in a short time.
The truth is, Pivetta is likely one of the only two-strike pitchers, interval. Listed below are the ten only pitchers on the subject of limiting offense in two-strike counts:
Greatest Pitchers in Two-Strike Counts, 2025
This season, 329 totally different pitchers have thrown 200 or extra pitches in two-strike counts. Nick Pivetta is the eighth only, and a lot of the guys forward of him are relievers pumping 100-mph fastballs for an inning at a time. (Trevor Rogers is nice: Famous.). Pivetta’s technique isn’t some novelty. It’s some of the efficient within the main leagues. And it’s “throw pitches within the best place to hit them within the counts the place there’s the least motive to throw them there.” Fairly pleasant.