What’s the sound of a batter not getting hit by a pitch? I ask as a result of as hit-by-pitch charges climbed over time (and saved climbing), we writers have made a lot of noise about them. In 2007, Steve Treder revealed an article referred to as “The HBP Explosion (That Virtually No one Appears to Have Observed)” in The Hardball Instances. After that, all people seen. We’ve seen articles about rising hit-by-pitch charges right here at FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, the Baseball Analysis Journal, MLB.com, The Athletic, SportsNet, FiveThirtyEight, the Wall Avenue Journal — even the Scientific Journal of Sports activities Drugs. The venerable Rob Mains of Baseball Prospectus has been writing about it (and writing about it and writing about) ever since he was the promising Rob Mains of the FanGraphs Group Weblog. Tom Verducci wrote concerning the “hit-by-pitch epidemic” for Sports activities Illustrated in 2021, then wrote a unique article with a virtually equivalent title simply two months in the past. There’s good purpose for all this noise, and so as to present it to you, I’ll reproduce the graph Devan Fink made when he wrote about this subject in 2018:
Hit-by-pitches have been rising for the reason that early Eighties, and regardless of a decline within the Seventies, you could possibly argue that they’ve been rising ever since World Struggle II. Devan’s graph ends in 2018, however the numbers saved on going up — for some time, anyway. Right here’s a graph that exhibits the HBP charge lately. After a pair many years of sounding the HBP alarm, it’s time for us to unring that bell (which I assume, with out having regarded it up, is a straightforward factor to do):
Congratulations all people, we’ve achieved it! We’ve ended the epidemic. The HBP charge has fallen in 4 of the final 5 seasons. It’s secure to depart your house once more. You possibly can enter a public house with out concern that you simply’ll be bombarded with stray baseballs. Rob Mains can lastly take a trip. Tom Verducci can lastly take a deep breath.
Now, to be clear, the graph I simply confirmed you is very deceptive. Right here’s one which exhibits the latest decline in a bit extra context:
The HBP charge has been rising for the reason that early Eighties. That rise slowed down within the mid-Nineties, then hit an abrupt drop-off after 2006. Then the HBP charge took off simply in time for the Statcast Period, and now it’s beginning to come again all the way down to earth. That’s nonetheless an awfully massive drop off, although, and whereas I’ve spent quite a lot of time trying, I haven’t discovered an article about this sudden decline. In spite of everything these articles concerning the rising HBP charge, not a single one concerning the dropping charge! The silence is deafening.
We’re going to dive into this deeper, however let’s first take a second to acknowledge that there’s no such factor as a perfect HBP charge, in the best way that we would consider there being a perfect residence run or strikeout charge that makes for a extra balanced recreation. In a perfect world, no person would get hit by a pitch; in spite of everything, it’s harmful. Pitchers don’t wish to hit batters. Most batters don’t wish to get hit. Nevertheless it’s an unavoidable a part of the sport, and as Devan’s graph confirmed, it’s been occurring for so long as baseball has been round, although even in 2020, when it was occurring extra usually than ever, it was nonetheless a comparatively freak incidence.
Over the million or so articles I discussed earlier, all kinds of culprits have been advised for the rising HBP charge. The introduction of the designated hitter. Growing velocity. Protecting gear that enables batters to crowd the plate with impunity. A deal with stuff over command. Increased fastball areas. Elevated deception. Improved pitch tunneling. The rise of the reliever. Utilizing sticky stuff. Banning sticky stuff. Batters diving towards the plate as a result of they’re centered on masking the skin pitch. Pitchers countering with extra inside pitches. A better emphasis on on-base proportion. A trickle-down impact of the rising reputation of the HBP in school. A few of these concepts bear extra scrutiny than others, however I’d prefer to throw a number of more moderen components on the pile.
Let’s begin with the juiced baseball. Within the second half of the final decade, baseballs began flying farther and residential run charges soared. As Andy of Baseball Reference famous again in 2010, the house run charge and the HBP charge have a really robust correlation. Since 1937, when the HBP charge lastly bottomed out after the wilder pitching of earlier eras, the correlation coefficient of the house run charge and the HBP charge is .87. We needs to be anticipating a excessive quantity anyway, as each charges have risen over time, however that’s terribly excessive. Right here’s a graph that exhibits residence run charge and HBP charge over that interval. Only for the needs of the graph, I’ve tripled the HBP charge so as to put it on the identical scale as residence run charge:
On this century, there have been thrice as many homers as HBPs in any given season, like clockwork. The correlation coefficient since 2000 is .70. Andy proposed a number of theories for this connection and I’ve a number of of my very own, however whatever the purpose, the connection is tough to dispute. Understanding this, it’s no shock that when the ball began flying and residential run charges spiked, hit-by-pitch charges went with them, and it’s no shock that they’ve began falling collectively too.
One more reason for the spike is that pitchers have been working inside extra usually. HBPs clearly come on inside pitches and on pitches that break towards the batter, however we are able to put some numbers to that. This 12 months, the common pitch strikes 1.2 inches away from the batter horizontally, and it crosses the plate 2.1 inches towards the skin a part of the plate. The typical HBP, alternatively, is positioned 14.7 inches off the plate inside and breaks a mean of 6.2 inches towards the batter. Understanding that, let’s take a look at the proportion of pitches that break at the least three inches towards the batter, and the proportion of pitches which are positioned at the least 2.4 inches towards the within a part of the plate:
Because the starting of the Statcast period, pitchers have been coming inside extra usually and have been throwing extra pitches that break towards the batter. No marvel the HBP charge has risen. Nevertheless, inside pitches have dropped off some within the final two seasons. The actually fascinating factor is how the numbers break down when you separate left-handed and right-handed batters:
Righties have at all times gotten hit a bit extra usually than lefties, however particularly throughout this latest surge, lefties had been getting hit simply as usually. Then they dropped proper again down.
Now let me present you ways usually batters see pitches that appear to be they’re ticketed for a HBP. The graph beneath exhibits pitches with at the least 5 inches of break towards the batter which are at the least 10.7 inches off the plate inside. In different phrases, these are pitches with a really excessive probability of hitting a batter:
That is actually unusual. The blue line for lefties seems to be precisely like we’d count on it to. They noticed extra of those pitches through the latest massive spike, and so they’re seeing fewer these days. Nevertheless, the pink line for righties has been dropping steadily for the reason that starting of the pitch-tracking period. If righties – who make up the vast majority of batters – have been seeing fewer and fewer of those pitches, why haven’t HBPs simply been dropping steadily for the final 15 or 20 years? The reply is that these pitches have been hitting batters increasingly more usually. The graph beneath takes those self same pitches from the graph above, method inside and breaking towards the batter, and exhibits how usually they really find yourself hitting the batter:
There was an enormous hole right here. These pitches used to hit lefties way more usually, however now they’re hitting righties practically as usually, and each charges have gone method up. In different phrases, when the ball is coming on the batter, it’s getting more durable and more durable to keep away from it.
Let’s recap what we’ve coated thus far. Pitchers are throwing inside extra usually, and so they’re throwing pitches that break towards the batter extra usually. Regardless of that, they’ve truly been throwing fewer of the pitches which are most probably to hit batters. In case you assumed that HBPs are up as a result of right now’s hard-throwing pitchers haven’t any management over the place the pitch goes – not precisely a minority opinion – you had been useless fallacious.
The HBP charge has risen anyway as a result of when pitchers do throw these pitches, they’re hitting the batter way more usually. In actual fact, even over the previous 5 years, when the HBP charge has been declining, the HBP charge of these pitches has practically doubled.
The rise of the sweeping slider helps illustrate the best way pitches have develop into extra harmful for batters. With their excessive horizontal break, sweepers had been mainly designed to run method inside and hit batters. In latest seasons, pitchers have been throwing them to opposite-handed batters increasingly more usually. This season, roughly 40% of all sweepers are thrown to opposite-handed batters. In case you go by Baseball Savant’s pitch classifications, which use regardless of the pitcher in query calls the pitch, sweepers are 44% extra more likely to hit a batter than different sliders this season. In case you classify them by way of motion – the place greater than 12 inches of glove-side break means the pitch is a sweeper and fewer than meaning it’s an everyday slider – that quantity is 88%.
Classifying sweepers utilizing that technique, over the whole thing of the pitch monitoring period, sweepers have hit batters 0.46% of the time, whereas common sliders are at 0.22%. That’s greater than twice as usually, and though we solely began speaking about sweepers (and whirlies) a number of years in the past, they began making up a much bigger proportion of sliders again in 2015. That’s proper when the HBP charge began rising once more, and it’s proper when the league began throwing far more sliders. From 2008 to 2015, 1.5% of all pitches had been sweepers. From 2016 onward, that quantity is 3.6%:
However as this graph exhibits, the sweeper actually took off proper when the HBP charge began to say no once more. So pitchers at the moment are throwing them thrice as usually as they used to, however the HBP charge has been dropping anyway. Different pitches should be offsetting the sweeper, so let’s check out the league’s pitch combine:
As you absolutely know, pitchers’ use of breaking pitches has been rising for years. Offspeed pitches have additionally been rising, particularly since 2018 or so. Sinkers have been declining since 2010, however they actually fell off beginning in 2019. Lastly, I grouped four-seamers and cutters collectively as a result of they have an inclination to have roughly the identical HBP charge. Now let’s take a look at how usually these pitches find yourself hitting batters:
Each pitch kind has seen a decline over the previous few years, even sinkers. Regardless of the rise of the sweeper, breaking pitches are hitting fewer batters. Though pitchers are throwing extra splitters (which hit extra batters than conventional changeups), offspeed pitches are hitting fewer batters too. As a result of pitchers are throwing fewer sinkers and extra smooth stuff, the general HBP charge goes down.
In all, sinkers, breaking pitches, and offspeed pitches have made up 66% of all HBPs since 2021. From 2008 to 2016, that quantity was beneath 60%. These pitches cross the plate a lot decrease than four-seamers and cutters. In consequence, the common HBP is way decrease. The graph beneath exhibits the peak on the time {that a} pitch crosses the plate:
After we take into consideration gamers getting hit by pitches, our minds understandably leap to the scary excessive pitches that may hit a head or hand. As Matthew Trueblood lately documented for Baseball Prospectus, these accidents are on the rise. However the numbers make it clear that the pitches likeliest to trigger these accidents are literally being thrown much less usually. As soon as once more, it appears that evidently once they do come rushing towards the batter, they’re simply more durable to keep away from. The typical HBP has dropped by practically 5 inches. (As Trueblood famous, that’s not essentially an excellent factor both, as a result of these low, inside pitches can lead to fouls off the decrease leg, which may trigger their very own accidents. Generally it’s all dangerous.) The actually fascinating factor about HBP location, although, comes on the horizontal axis. The graph beneath exhibits the common horizontal location the second it crosses the plate:
This can be a very noisy graph, but it surely tells a transparent story. For years, when you needed to hit a right-handed batter, you’d should throw it greater than an inch farther inside than you’ll to a left-handed batter. However that hole fully disappeared in 2017, and the general quantity has dropped a full inch since then. Certainly a few of that is as a result of elevated horizontal break that we talked about earlier, but it surely additionally signifies that it’s simply more durable to keep away from an inside pitch than it was, and that additionally brings us to the elephant within the room.
Many research have proven the speed of a person pitch has no bearing on HBP charge, however that doesn’t imply that velocity has no impact. I don’t assume anybody would make that argument. Batters have much less response time when dealing with a sooner pitch. Logic tells us that they due to this fact should gear up for his or her swing earlier in opposition to a pitcher who throws more durable. They’ll be additional into their swing once they notice that the ball is coming at them and they should take evasive motion. That makes avoidance harder, even on breaking and offspeed pitches, or the mis-throws that make up quite a lot of HBPs and might have a tendency to return out of the hand slower.
However let me present you a correlation within the different course. The graph beneath exhibits the hit-by-pitch charge for fastballs – four-seamers and sinkers – bucketed in 2 mph increments. The trendline very clearly goes straight down:
Up till we get to pitches above 100 mph, the sooner you throw a fastball, the much less doubtless you might be to hit a batter. Perhaps you’re pondering pitchers who throw softer have higher management, and that’s skewing the numbers. To verify, let’s normalize for location. We’ll throw out every part apart from pitches which are positioned in a spot the place they’re more likely to hit a batter. Right here’s the identical graph, however solely displaying the chances for pitches which are at the least 10.5 inches off the plate inside:
Even once you management for location – even once you’re throwing a pitch at a batter – there’s a transparent downward development. The more durable you throw it, the much less doubtless you might be to hit anyone. I feel the one inference you possibly can draw right here is that batters are frightened of sooner pitches, and so they’re doing a greater job of getting out of the best way. The strongest piece of proof for that case is that it hasn’t at all times labored that method. The 2 graphs above are for 2021 to 2025. Right here’s the identical graph, however for the 5 years prior, 2016 to 2020:
If there’s a development right here, it’s rather a lot much less clear. Over the previous 5 years, whether or not they’re being instructed to take action or the intuition towards self-preservation is solely taking up, batters throughout the league have began ensuring that when a pitcher who can throw 97 mph misses inside, they aren’t within the line of fireplace. The general HBP charge of fastballs is up, but it surely’s up particularly for slower fastballs.
We clearly can’t know each purpose for the fluctuation within the HBP charge. If we might, this piece’s introductory paragraph wouldn’t have listed dozens of various articles, however moderately one or two that defined every part merely. So, so many components are concerned. For instance, batters are rather a lot larger and stronger than they was. Who’s to say that the HBP charge hasn’t elevated at the least partly as a result of, as gamers have began to look extra like Aaron Decide and fewer like Pee Wee Reese, there’s simply extra bodily mass for the ball to hit when it ventures into the batter’s field? That is an extremely dumb concept and I’ve by no means seen anybody else increase it, but it surely additionally looks like it might perhaps, presumably be a bit bit true.
Nonetheless, there are some clear takeaways right here. Sinkers usually tend to hit batters, so the truth that they’re being thrown much less usually than ever is clearly contributing to the league-wide drop in HBP charge. Regardless that pitchers are throwing inside greater than ever, they’re throwing fewer of the best way inside, in-breaking pitches which are likeliest to lead to HBPs. Sadly, these pitches are extra doubtless than ever to hit pay grime when they’re thrown, presumably due to elevated velocity and horizontal break. Lastly, gamers appear to be making a concerted effort to keep away from getting hit by the quickest fastballs, and that could be a comparatively new phenomenon. There’s no method of figuring out whether or not this latest drop in HBP charge will proceed, but it surely’s positively value investigating, so I hope that is simply the primary of many articles about it.