The Boston Purple Sox addressed their gap at first base over the weekend, coming to phrases with free agent Nathaniel Lowe, previously of the Washington Nationals. Lowe has struggled in 2025, hitting .216/.292/.373 for an 86 wRC+ and -0.8 WAR, his worst exhibiting as knowledgeable.
I don’t assume that anybody — not even a member of Lowe’s household — would object too strongly to the declaration that Lowe has had an abysmal season. Lowe has by no means truly been a star, however with a .274/.359/.432 four-year run from 2021 to 2024, averaging 2.7 WAR per season, he had no less than established himself in that Serviceable B+ First Baseman class. The tip of Lowe’s time in Texas got here shortly, and after a Silver Slugger in 2022, a Gold Glove and a World Sequence ring in 2023, and one other strong offensive marketing campaign in 2024, he discovered himself tradable for pitching assist (lefty Robert Garcia) after the crew acquired Jake Burger for causes that also confound me. The Nats have been making noise about being aggressive in 2025, and there was an inexpensive expectation that Lowe would enhance the place with out requiring a significant long-term dedication.
ZiPS noticed decline coming for Lowe heading into the season, however principally for after 2025, with Steamer feeling equally. Kudos to Derek Carty’s THE BAT X, which did have issues that this Lowe rider would drive somewhat slower, solely projecting a 102 wRC+ within the preseason.
None of this sounds precisely sunny, however I do like this signing for just a few causes. First off, let me preface issues by acknowledging there are critical issues about Lowe’s bat proper now. If this have been a case of simply with the ability to hunker down and await the bounceback, then somebody doubtless would have been prepared to assert Lowe on waivers and choose up the pro-rated the rest of his $10.3 million wage for 2025. The Purple Sox didn’t have to try this so as to add Lowe to the roster, solely needing to pay the pro-rated minimal wage, that means there’s no monetary danger for the crew, nor any assured cash owed to him previous the top of the season.
Boston initially hoped that this could be the yr that Triston Casas could be the “set it and neglect it” first baseman and solidify a place that hadn’t been a major plus for a actually very long time. Coming into the season, our Depth Charts projection (combining ZiPS and Steamer) predicted a 2.3-WAR season from Casas. Only for enjoyable, guess the final time that Purple Sox first basemen mixed for no less than 2.3 WAR in a season.
Click on this spoiler and pray Dan coded it accurately!
In 2013, Boston first basemen mixed for 3.7 WAR, principally from Mike Napoli.
That… didn’t fairly work out as hoped. Casas struggled early, and a ruptured patella ended any probability he may’ve needed to salvage his season. Taking part in Rafael Devers at first base appeared like a pure resolution, however after he’d already felt blindsided by the way in which the group dealt with his third base-to-DH switcheroo after Boston signed Alex Bregman, Devers was reluctant to all of a sudden study a brand new place after not taking part in the sphere for 2 months.
We’ve already lined the following Devers commerce and its fallout in depth right here at FanGraphs, so we gained’t be adjudicating that in the present day. The end result, nonetheless, is that first base for the Purple Sox has change into a reasonably conventional platoon of Romy Gonzalez and Abraham Toro. Half of this platoon turned out marvelously, with Gonzalez hitting .354/.404/.667 in opposition to left-handed pitching. Toro, however, had by no means hit lefties or righties notably effectively, and ended up because the robust aspect of the platoon by the method of elimination.
Lowe, however, has a profession .786 OPS in opposition to righties, and even in the event you merely take the numbers from his dreadful 2025, his .235/.312/.421 line in opposition to righties represents a significant enchancment from the .212/.276/.339 that Purple Sox first basemen have mixed for in opposition to them. ZiPS offers Lowe a .255/.335/.401 rest-of-season projection in Boston by the complete ZiPS mannequin. That’s hardly scintillating, however his projected .258/.342/.412 line in opposition to righties could be a strong platoon contribution, particularly for a participant that the crew principally picked up at no cost. No remotely believable possibility at first base initiatives higher in opposition to righties for the Purple Sox the remainder of this season.
I actually stretched believable so far as I may to challenge big-spoon platoon choices at first base, and Lowe seems to be like the plain reply of this group.
Theoretically, with one other yr of arbitration remaining, Lowe may return to the Purple Sox in 2026, with the remainder of this season representing an audition. In follow, with a most 20% wage minimize allowed in arbitration, Lowe must flip into Kyle Schwarber to get the minimum-allowed $8.24 million provide from Boston. It does enable him the chance to impress different potential suitors, although, and there’s no contender higher outfitted to offer him taking part in time than the Sox.
In the long run, it is a minor transaction, like virtually each transfer after the commerce deadline. However it’s additionally a short-term take care of excessive upside. The Purple Sox are paying subsequent to nothing to take an opportunity on a hitter who performs a place of want and is only a yr faraway from a .265/.361/.401 (123 wRC+) marketing campaign, a hitter who regardless of his total struggles has been above common in opposition to righties. Thumbs up.