FanGraphs Energy Rankings: August 4–17

After per week hiatus, these energy rankings are again… and nothing a lot has modified within the playoff image. The Nationwide League is notably stratified, even when the NL West is a bit nearer than it was two weeks in the past, and though there are just a few extra longshots within the American League, the 12-team discipline seems fairly settled proper now.

Final yr, we revamped our energy rankings utilizing a modified Elo ranking system. If you happen to’re accustomed to chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports activities part, you’ll know that Elo is a chic answer that measures groups’ relative power and could be very reactive to latest efficiency. To keep away from overweighting latest outcomes in the course of the season, we weigh every group’s uncooked Elo rank utilizing our coin flip playoff odds (particularly, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh these in opposition to the uncooked Elo rating, growing in weight because the season progresses to a most of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Energy Rating” within the tables under. As the most effective and worst groups kind themselves out all through the season, they’ll filter to the highest and backside of the rankings, whereas the train will stay reactive to sizzling streaks or chilly snaps.

First up are the total rankings, offered in a sortable desk. Under that, I’ve grouped the groups into tiers with feedback on a handful of golf equipment. You’ll discover that the official ordinal rankings don’t all the time match the tiers — there are occasions the place I take editorial liberties when grouping groups collectively — however typically, the ordering is constant. One factor to notice: The playoff odds listed within the tables under are our normal Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds which are used within the rating method.

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Effectively, the Brewers lastly misplaced a sport within the month of August. Their 14-game successful streak propelled their lead within the NL Central from one sport forward of the Cubs on July 31 to an eight-game hole, and so they have the most effective file within the majors by six video games. They’ve barely felt the affect of Jackson Chourio’s hamstring harm, which he suffered just a few weeks in the past, as a result of almost everybody else of their lineup is on fireplace. Seven of the eight Milwaukee gamers who’ve collected a minimum of 50 plate appearances in August are working a 125 wRC+ or greater for the month. The Brew Crew could have a possibility to really bury the Cubs within the standings, as these two rivals have a five-game collection on the schedule this week, starting with a doubleheader on Monday at Wrigley Area.

The Blue Jays prolonged their lead within the AL East to 5 video games by going 4-2 final week in opposition to the Cubs and Rangers. They may not be probably the most full group within the AL, however so long as their superstars are producing, they give the impression of being very onerous to beat. To wit: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. blasted his sixth house run of the month on Sunday, Bo Bichette has returned to kind after his horrible 2024 season, and George Springer was simply activated off the IL on Saturday.

It took him just a few weeks to acclimate to the large leagues, however starting with a 3-for-6 displaying on June 28, Roman Anthony has slashed .322/.433/.409 (a 158 wRC+) in 40 video games. And he’ll be anchoring this lineup for a very long time to come back, as Boston signed him to an enormous extension just a few weeks in the past. After treading water within the Wild Card race with a 3-3 file final week, the Crimson Sox have an enormous four-game collection in opposition to the Yankees looming this weekend within the Bronx.

The Dodgers and Padres entered final weekend’s collection in Los Angeles on very totally different trajectories. After struggling a sweep by the hands of the Angels, the Dodgers dropped from first place within the NL West for the primary time since late April. In the meantime, San Diego had been surging, winners of 5 straight collection with a 14-3 file over its earlier 17 video games. Then, naturally, Los Angeles gained all three video games to flip the momentum of each groups. The Dodgers as soon as once more lead the division, by two video games getting into this week, however this race is much from over, regardless of our playoff odds giving the Padres only a 16.1% shot at successful the West. We’ll see how these odds transfer after the 2 groups match up for 3 video games in San Diego this weekend of their ultimate assembly of the common season.

The Phillies prolonged their lead within the NL East from half a sport on August 4 to 5 video games getting into Monday, however they’re now going through the extended absence of Zack Wheeler, who was positioned on the IL on Sunday with a blood clot in his shoulder. The returns of each Aaron Nola and Alec Bohm from their respective accidents ought to soften the blow a bit, and Philadelphia ought to have the rotation depth to get by with out Wheeler within the common season. Nonetheless, it’s fairly potential the Phillies gained’t have their greatest pitcher again for October. That’s a serious concern in what ought to be a really aggressive NL postseason discipline.

Even when the Cubs do nicely of their big five-game set in opposition to the Brewers this week, it in all probability gained’t be sufficient to disturb Milwaukee’s possibilities of successful the division. As a substitute, efficiency ought to permit Chicago to regain among the momentum it has misplaced. When the Cubs took two out of three video games from the Pirates over the weekend, it marked simply the third time the North Siders have gained a collection within the 4 weeks since July 21, a span of eight collection.

It seems just like the Tigers have put their July swoon behind them. They couldn’t full the four-game sweep of the Twins on Sunday, however they’ve now gained three straight collection and have gone 13-7 over their final 20 video games. The Astros will go to Detroit this week in a showdown between two of the most effective groups within the AL.

The Mariners had an eight-game successful streak snapped on Wednesday, however their surge earned them a share of the AL West lead for a really temporary second. From there, although, Seattle faltered once more, dropping each of its collection final week, in opposition to the Orioles and the Mets, and slipping to 1 1/2 video games behind the Astros within the West. Even so, issues are trying up for the Mariners: With Bryce Miller set to be activated off the IL on Tuesday, the M’s could have all 5 of their prime starters lively and wholesome for the primary time this season. In the meantime, after a frigid three weeks popping out of the All-Star break, Cal Raleigh is on fireplace as soon as once more. Over his final 9 video games, Massive Dumper is slashing .303/.395/.818 with 5 house runs and a 231 wRC+.

As for the Astros, you’ll be able to chalk up one other harm on their lengthy ledger this season. This time it’s a shoulder harm to Josh Hader, which is predicted to sideline him for the remainder of the common season, although the door continues to be barely open for an October return if the whole lot heals nicely. In higher information, Yordan Alvarez is about to start a minor league rehab task this week.

Since being activated from the IL on August 5, Aaron Choose has posted a very-mortal-though-still-solid .229/.426/.429 slash line (140 wRC+). Regardless of, the Yankees have gone 7-4 with Choose again within the lineup and have crawled again inside a half sport of the Crimson Sox and Mariners for the highest Wild Card spot within the AL.

Issues received fairly risky for New York’s Nationwide League group, because the Mets slogged by means of a brutal 2-14 stretch and let the Reds shut the hole significantly within the Wild Card standings. New York by no means let go of that ultimate spot, and its back-to-back wins in opposition to the Mariners over the weekend supplied a little bit little bit of respiratory room, however that is nonetheless a a lot tighter race than anybody in Queens would love. The excellent news for the Mets is that their two Franciscos in are heating up; Lindor tallied 14 hits and three house runs final week, and Alvarez has posted a .323/.408/.645 slash line (193 wRC+) since being recalled from Triple-A on July 21.

With the Mets stumbling, the Reds appeared like they have been poised to tug right into a playoff place, particularly after they gained their collection in opposition to the Phillies heading into final weekend. However Cincinnati bumped into the Brewers at precisely the fallacious time, dropping the primary two video games earlier than snapping Milwaukee’s 14-game successful streak in additional innings on Sunday. Sadly, as quickly because the Reds activated Hunter Greene off the IL, Chase Burns switched locations with him after struggling a flexor pressure in his throwing elbow. For now, supervisor Terry Francona is hoping for the best-case state of affairs, that Burns can resume throwing quickly and return earlier than the top of August. Nonetheless, Reds followers shouldn’t get too excited simply but, because the group will certainly be cautious with the 22-year-old’s rehab and virtually actually restrict his workload the remainder of the way in which.

The three groups on this tier are desperately making an attempt to hold on within the AL Wild Card race. The Guardians fell to three 1/2 video games behind the Yankees for the ultimate playoff spot after getting swept by the Braves at house over the weekend. It was Cleveland’s first collection loss since late July. Even with these three losses, the Guards nonetheless have the AL’s greatest file since July 7 (23-12). In the meantime, the Royals have been almost pretty much as good over that very same span (20-13). Following a three-game sweep of White Sox, Kansas Metropolis enters this week only a half-game behind Cleveland within the standings.

On the opposite facet of the coin, the Rangers are in the midst of what might be season-crushing skid. On July 27, Texas reached a season-best six video games over .500; since then, the group has gone 6-13 and slipped under .500 once more. This week in all probability represents the final gasp of hope for the Rangers to return to the Wild Card race. They journey to Kansas Metropolis for 4 video games earlier than internet hosting the Guardians for a three-game set this weekend.

It was enjoyable whereas it lasted, however you’ll be able to in all probability stick a fork in any hope of a shock Wild Card run from the Marlins. After sweeping the Yankees three weekends in the past to achieve .500, they’ve gained simply 4 of their final 14 and at the moment are seven video games behind the Mets for the ultimate playoff spot. To make issues worse, Kyle Stowers, Miami’s greatest hitter this season, was simply positioned on the IL with an indirect pressure. No less than the Marlins can level to their aggressive stretch in July and dream about returning to rivalry sooner slightly than later.

It’s far too little, too late, however the Braves are lastly on a roll. They swept the Guardians final weekend and at the moment are 9-2 over their final 11 video games. The important thing to this late-season surge has been the resurgence of Michael Harris II. After making some swing changes in early July, he’s slashing .386/.402/.719 (210 wRC+) for the reason that All-Star break. If Atlanta doesn’t have to fret about Harris’ bat transferring ahead, it provides the group one much less factor to deal with in what has immediately grow to be a massively necessary offseason.

To not low cost what Harris has performed these days, however the two greatest hitters in baseball in the course of the second half of the season each play for the Athletics. You in all probability know in regards to the heater that Nick Kurtz is on, however Shea Langeliers has been virtually pretty much as good during the last month. Each of these guys blasted house runs on Sunday — for Langeliers, it was his main league-leading 14th for the reason that All-Star break. The A’s might want to determine the way to pitch of their short-term house in Sacramento, however their offense actually seems prefer it’s for actual.

The Twins’ anticipated post-deadline crash hasn’t precisely arrived. Positive, they went 2-5 in opposition to the Yankees and Tigers final week, however they’re solely a sport under .500 since they offered almost each spare half off their roster. The implausible play of Luke Keaschall is a giant purpose why they’re nonetheless taking part in like a aggressive group; he’s posted a 149 wRC+ since being activated off the IL on August 5. The most important baseball information in Minnesota final week was the announcement that the Pohlad household will stay principal homeowners of the group after exploring a sale. The optics of this announcement stink. The Twins simply traded away an enormous chunk of the roster and dumped Carlos Correa off the payroll. To show round and say this teardown was “a part of the method” seems like an extension of the identical penny pinching that led to those previous two disappointing seasons. The hope established in 2023, after they gained their first playoff collection in 20 years, appears like an extended, very long time in the past.

With a pair of collection wins over the Cardinals and Diamondbacks final week, the Rockies at the moment are taking part in forward of the traditionally dangerous tempo of the 2024 White Sox. Colorado has to win simply seven video games earlier than the top of the season to keep away from tying Chicago’s file of futility. That actually feels doable, even when the Rockies have one of many most troublesome remaining schedules in baseball.