Is All Hope Misplaced for the Atlanta Braves?

For the Atlanta Braves, the 2025 season is a disasterpiece. Final season had its share of disappointments, however the lengthy stretches of middling play nonetheless left the Braves in a playoff spot by the tiniest of margins. After 2024, it was affordable to remain the course; no have to smash the purple panic button like an unsupervised youngster in an elevator. This time round, nonetheless, the Braves are prone to end the season with someplace round 90 losses, making merely battening down the hatches and ready for sunnier climate so much riskier of a method. I cranked up ZiPS to see how a lot tinkering the pc thinks Atlanta must do to be able to compete in 2026.

The Good

On the plus aspect, the Braves aren’t making an attempt to construct a successful workforce out of nothing. A lot of the offensive core stays intact and is definitely functioning fairly nicely. Ronald Acuña Jr. has made a profitable return from a second torn ACL and has been taking part in at a 7-WAR tempo. In fact, he’s out in the mean time with one other Achilles harm, however this seems to be a minor difficulty, comparatively talking, and given his historical past and Atlanta’s place within the standings, there’s no actual purpose to not be conservative together with his restoration. ZiPS is understandably down on his harm danger, however he nonetheless will get his traditional dynamite projection for 2026, even when it’s somewhat diminished from a taking part in time perspective:

Braves followers have understandably blended emotions about seeing Freddie Freeman getting old nicely in one other uniform, however Matt Olson has been a lot better this season than he was in his down 2024, to the purpose he’s truly edging out Freeman in WAR for the 12 months! A repeat of 2023 probably isn’t within the playing cards for Olson, however he ought to proceed to be roughly the identical participant he’s been outdoors of that growth season, albeit with gradual decline anticipated in his 30s:

Austin Riley is extra of a query mark, as he’s had each of the final two seasons marred by accidents: first a fractured hand that ended his 2024 prematurely, after which a number of stomach accidents which have lowered his 2025 attendance. He’s nonetheless on the appropriate aspect of 30, and whereas we will count on him to largely bounce again, after two underwhelming seasons, you possibly can’t pen him down for the 5 or 6 WAR he put up yearly from 2021 to 2023:

The catching place has been a power of the Braves, with Sean Murphy making a strong, albeit low-batting common, bounce again from an injury-laden 2024 season. Drake Baldwin has had a terrific rookie marketing campaign, and whereas I’ll chorus from making any predictions about his Rookie of the Yr possibilities — I’m a voter this 12 months — I don’t suppose it’s out of bounds to recommend that each voter goes to must take his case very critically. Plus, I recognize that his title appears like a cleaning soap opera character, much better than mine did. Whereas Murphy and Baldwin make for a terrific tandem, every is able to being a full-time starter in his personal proper; a more practical use of Murphy in 2026 could also be a commerce to usher in expertise the workforce wants elsewhere. ZiPS has usually been fairly conservative with Baldwin, however he appears to have hit a tipping level the final two months; his projections have improved quickly month-by-month:

The Dangerous

Seeing Spencer Strider wholesome has been nice. Seeing Spencer Strider truly pitch has been much less enjoyable, particularly since recollections of his first 12 months and a half within the majors are recent. His fastball isn’t as explosive because it as soon as was, and in contrast to in 2022 and 2023, hitters have been capable of get at it early sufficient to tug it a great distance. Whereas he throws a curveball and changeup, he’s principally a two-pitch pitcher, which is an issue when a kind of pitches goes south. He appears like he wants to significantly alter his repertoire this offseason. ZiPS is hopeful he’ll be higher in his second 12 months again from Tommy John surgical procedure [errr…internal brace surgery -DS], however it’s an enormous drop from his earlier projections, which had him up with the perfect pitchers within the league:

On the plus aspect, Michael Harris II has been fairly strong for the reason that begin of July, with a .317/.337/.577 triple-slash over 36 video games. However he was so abysmal for the primary three months of the season that this run has merely served to get his stats as much as one thing midway approaching respectability. He isn’t a 33-year-old veteran making an attempt to carry off decline; he’s a 24-year-old who you’d hope to see rounding out his sport and taking a step ahead, not simply making an attempt to salvage a awful 12 months. ZiPS had massive hopes for Harris breaking out in 2025 — that’s one projection that isn’t trying particularly prescient — and it nonetheless offers him a strong projection for 2026, however it has misplaced a few of its verve:

There’s been no such salvaging of the season relating to Ozzie Albies. Choosing up his $7 million membership choice for subsequent 12 months remains to be clearly the appropriate name, however his projections have taken a really severe hit. In contrast to Harris, Albies additionally underperformed in 2024, and whereas he’s relatively younger for a longtime participant to simply disappear absent an harm, it has occurred (see Carlos Baerga or, arguably, Edgar Renteria). The fractured wrist that value him time in 2024 is an inadequate rationalization for his continued decline:

What’s extra, the workforce’s depth tasks to be completely atrocious. ZiPS remains to be pretty optimistic about Nacho Alvarez Jr., however it sees little likelihood of another assist coming from the farm within the close to future. The perfect 2026 projection for a Braves minor league hitter in the mean time is Eddys Leonard at 0.9 WAR, and he was signed after being launched from Detroit’s Triple-A affiliate. That implies that and not using a extra aggressive method to their Plan B and Plan C expertise, each harm in Atlanta will once more have a large affect past the misplaced participant himself. Marcell Ozuna is a free agent and in decline, and shedding his bat, which has been surprisingly potent the previous few years, leaves one other gap in a lineup the Braves have had hassle filling out.

The Ugly

Atlanta was one in every of essentially the most injured groups in baseball in 2024, which served to partially clarify the workforce’s middling season. However whereas the Braves have misplaced a number of pitchers to harm once more this 12 months, the offense has usually been wholesome, and the workforce is up to now again that the accidents wanted to clarify their 2025 efficiency would virtually have to incorporate an Ebola outbreak.

There are good causes to suppose that Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo López, and Grant Holmes might kind a fairly good rotation with Strider, however all are presently out with harm, together with the Braves prospect ZiPS has preferred the perfect, AJ Smith-Shawver. And Smith-Shawver’s not going to be again any time quickly, as he went the Tommy John route a few months in the past. The opposite 4 might all be pluses in 2026, however there are severe dangers. Sale’s harm isn’t arm associated, however he additionally has an extended harm historical past, which suggests you possibly can’t simply rely upon getting 150 innings from him in any given season. López has missed the season with shoulder surgical procedure, and whereas the workforce seems to be hopeful, shoulder accidents don’t have the identical document of restoration that elbows do. Holmes is making an attempt to rehab a partial UCL tear, and I don’t suppose I’ve to inform you these related dangers. ZiPS loves Schwellenbach — because it did earlier than the season — however an elbow fracture is nothing to scoff at for a pitcher.

What’s Subsequent?

If I do a really early 2026 projected standings for the NL East, with all of the groups solely having the gamers beneath contract for subsequent season on their respective rosters, the Braves venture for simply an 79-83 document, third within the division and nicely behind the Phillies and Mets. Whereas the front-end expertise remains to be there, ZiPS cares in regards to the workforce’s depth and harm standing, and the unsure pitching coupled with the holes within the lineup put a damper on the workforce’s win whole in many of the simulations. Accidents will occur, and the present roster is ill-equipped to climate them.

The Braves aren’t low-cost within the sense of the Rays and Marlins, however they do try to spend as effectively as attainable. I don’t suppose they will get away with that any longer; the instances name for inefficiency, not thrift. Whereas the rotation might be good, the workforce wants extra certainty. And in the event that they find yourself with an excessive amount of beginning pitching? Properly, no workforce has ever had that be an precise downside. There are many fascinating pitchers on the market, from Dylan Stop to Framber Valdez to Ranger Suárez, and Michael King is prone to be part of them. There are additionally a number of fascinating maybes, like Brandon Woodruff, Shane Bieber, and Zac Gallen, however the Braves aren’t ready the place they need to be chasing maybes. They’ve adequate provide of these.

Equally, hanging round all winter to see which free brokers are left unsigned in March, after which bringing in a pair to fill out the roster, will not be going to work. The Braves don’t essentially have to signal a famous person, although one is at all times welcome. As an alternative, it is a roster that simply screams for a sturdy corps of veteran position gamers, even when Atlanta has to pay a bit extra for them.

So are the Atlanta Braves doomed? No. However one thing has to alter within the workforce’s method for it to return to being a top-tier contender in 2026.