Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Is Getting Out of the Swing of Issues

We haven’t written a lot about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. since he signed his half-billion-dollar contract extension again in April. That’s comprehensible, in that we have a tendency to write down about new and thrilling developments. After all, the draw back of that’s generally it may well lead us to neglect thrilling gamers who aren’t essentially doing something new. On the floor, Guerrero very a lot falls into that class. He’s having a typical Vladimir Guerrero Jr. season.

These numbers are practically an identical! Guerrero is doing his factor, which consists of hitting the ball exhausting, hitting it on the bottom, and placing up an total batting line that ought to nab him a smattering of MVP votes. The Blue Jays promised Guerrero all the cash in Canada within the hope that he would simply carry on being himself for the subsequent decade and a half, and he’s off to an excellent begin. Simply 14 extra seasons like this to go. He’s on tempo for five.0 WAR, the third-best mark of his profession. That’s definitely value writing about, particularly when Guerrero is doing it for the crew with the most effective file within the American League. But in addition, I largely wish to write about this new factor he’s doing.

Right here’s the brand new factor: Guerrero has stopped swinging. Not totally – that will be foolish – however he’s dropped his total swing fee from 48.5% in 2024 all the best way to 40.9% in 2025. That’s the third-largest lower amongst all certified gamers. It represents an enormous departure for Guerrero (and an excellent larger departure from the methods of his swing-happy father).

Guerrero is swinging much less towards all three teams of pitches – fastballs, breaking balls, and offspeed – and he’s swinging much less towards practically each particular person pitch sort. (Rattling you, slurves, for messing up a tidy narrative!) That is straightforward to see within the warmth maps. Guerrero has at all times regarded for the ball up within the zone, however he’s now particularly in search of pitches on the inside half, and he’s doing a a lot better job of shedding pitches at and under the underside of the zone, particularly sinkers.

Guerrero can also be simply swinging so much much less, although. The very best quantity within the 2025 warmth map is 74%, proper over the center on the inside half. That might make it simply the Eleventh-highest quantity on the 2021-2024 warmth map. Guerrero was swinging extra typically at pitches on the very prime of the strike zone than he’s now at pitches proper over the center of the plate. It’s an excessive change.

Let’s begin by taking a look at pitches out of the zone. Guerrero has by no means precisely been a free swinger, and he’s really dropped his chase fee in every of the final three seasons, as Ben Nicholson-Smith of SportsNet famous again in Might. On the time, Guerrero was at 24.6%, which was tied for the most effective mark of his complete profession. He was simply getting began. Over the 2 months since Nicholson-Smith’s commentary, Guerrero has run a chase fee of 18.2%, sixth lowest of any participant who’s seen a minimum of 500 pitches over that stretch. It’s dropped his total chase fee to twenty.5%, which places him within the 92nd percentile. Right here’s what that appears like over the course of his profession. That blue line began cratering after the All-Star break final season.

That’s fairly convincing. Just a few instances in his complete profession has Guerrero had a stretch with a decrease chase fee than he’s run over the complete course of this season.

It’s nice to put off dangerous pitches. It earns you extra balls, which places you forward within the rely extra typically, which places you ready to succeed. And it hopefully implies that extra of your swings come on pitches the place you are able to do actual harm. However a few worries crop up any time you see a hitter dramatically drop their swing fee. You are worried that they’ll take too many referred to as strikes, offsetting the advantage of the additional balls. The trade-off may not be value it. And you are worried that they’ll be much less aggressive, that in the event that they’re not up there seeking to assault the baseball, they’ll find yourself taking extra hittable pitches, and so they received’t do as a lot harm once they do swing.

Guerrero is certainly taking much more strikes. His 60.8% swing fee on pitches contained in the zone can also be a profession low, and his 18% referred to as strike fee is a profession excessive. However the trade-off is figuring out nice for 2 causes. First, the truth that Guerrero is a fearsome slugger implies that pitchers are afraid to pound the zone towards him. Despite the fact that he’s operating one of many lowest swing charges within the sport, he nonetheless ranks proper within the center by way of zone fee. The second is that Guerrero has drastically diminished his foul fee. He’s squaring the ball up extra typically and fouling off pitches on a career-low 31.5% of his swings. Put all of it collectively, and a career-low 39.4% of the pitches he sees are ending up as strikes (or fouls), whereas a career-high 40.8% are ending up as balls. In consequence, his 13.2% stroll fee is the best of his profession; his 13.7% strikeout fee, the bottom. One of many sport’s most feared energy hitters is simply 4 walks away from strolling greater than he’s putting out.

As for the second concern, Guerrero is certainly nonetheless attacking the baseball. His slugging proportion is a bit decrease than common, however definitely nothing that may’t be defined by the vagaries of batted ball luck. Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric, which rewards hitters for selective aggression, nonetheless has Guerrero within the 96th percentile. He’s misplaced some credit score by taking extra hittable pitches, however he’s made up for it by shedding dangerous pitches. His common bat pace is increased than it was in 2023 and 2024, and he’s assembly the ball farther out in entrance. His exit velocity numbers are proper in keeping with his profession marks, and he’s operating a career-high line drive fee. To this point this season, 24.4% of the pitches he’s seen over the guts of the plate have was hard-hit balls; over the previous three seasons, that quantity was 24.3%. Guerrero’s xwOBACON – his anticipated efficiency when he places the ball in play – is nearly precisely the identical because the quantity he posted final season. His total batting line is a bit worse largely as a result of the ball hasn’t discovered grass as typically.

Altogether, Guerrero is strolling extra, putting out much less, and hitting the ball just about as exhausting as he ever has. This might be an enormous profit for any batter. Including a free 30 factors to your on-base proportion is an enormous deal. It’s an particularly massive deal for a participant like Guerrero, whose propensity for groundballs implies that his manufacturing not often lives as much as the expectations you’d have from taking a look at his hard-hit fee alone.

When The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon requested about this new, more-patient Guerrero again in June, the Toronto teaching employees didn’t provide any earth-shattering insights. “Vlad’s not afraid to take his walks,” stated supervisor John Schneider. “And we’re sort of seeing increasingly more of that. And we hope that it’s not the case, going ahead you need him to swing the bat. However Vlad’s figured lots of issues out in a brief period of time.” New hitting coach David Popkins stated, “I feel he’s extra conscious of groups. Like how they’re pitching him and the place they’re making an attempt to pitch him.” Possibly Schneider and Popkins know greater than they’re letting on, however that is coachspeak for shrugging your shoulders. Guerrero could possibly be hitting the scouting stories more durable; he could possibly be seeing the ball higher, or he may simply be doing a greater job of specializing in that middle-in pitch. Regardless of the purpose, this new model of Vladdy definitely seems to be simply as harmful as ever.