I owe Luke Keaschall an apology. Final night time, the 22-year-old second baseman put up the primary oh-fer of his temporary and good main league profession, the predictable results of my choice to put in writing about him right now. Within the sequence opener within the Bronx, the Yankees beat the Twins, 6-2, and Keaschall watched from the on-deck circle with an 11-game hitting streak on the road as Ryan Jeffers struck out to finish the sport. That is my fault. I knew that by pitching an article about Keaschall, I used to be condemning him to this destiny. I actually do really feel dangerous about jinxing him, nevertheless it was time to focus on simply how spectacular his begin has been. Keaschall will flip 23 on Friday, which makes him precisely three years older than FanGraphs.
Allow me to exclude Monday’s stats momentarily for the sake of portray an image. By way of the primary 12 video games of his profession, Keaschall ran a 234 wRC+, slashing .415/.500/.707, homering twice, and stealing 5 bases. He’s certainly one of simply 10 gamers within the final 30 years – an inventory that additionally contains his supervisor, Rocco Baldelli – to start out his profession with an 11-game hitting streak. Keaschall additionally began his profession with a 12-game on-base streak. Sure, that’s doable; I’ll clarify in a second. With a pleasant spherical 1.0 WAR (which dropped to 0.9 on Monday; once more, I’m so sorry, Luke), he ranks eighth amongst Minnesota’s place gamers. He has 5 multi-hit video games. He was simply named AL Participant of the Week in his second week as a giant leaguer. On Sunday, he achieved his first three-hit sport with a walk-off homer towards the Royals within the eleventh inning.
To make all this much more spectacular, Keaschall hasn’t precisely had a traditional rookie marketing campaign. The Twins known as him up in April, and he began his profession with a six-game hitting streak. He ran the on-base streak to seven video games when a Kyle Hendricks fastball hit him close to his proper wrist on April 25. The 86.8-mph pitch fractured each Keaschall’s forearm and his season, shelving him with a profession 206 wRC+ after seven video games. Keaschall missed greater than three months, and somewhat than selecting up proper the place he’d left off, he hit even higher when he got here again. He returned on August 5, notching three straight two-hit, multi-RBI video games. About these RBI: Keaschall has a wRC+ of 119 in low leverage conditions, 261 in medium leverage, and 352 in excessive leverage. With 1.13 WPA, he’s already second amongst Twins hitters and forty seventh amongst all hitters. As soon as once more, he has performed in 13 video games, and in certainly one of them, all he did was stroll as much as the plate and get his arm damaged by the second-slowest four-seamer in baseball.
Keaschall spent two years on the College of San Francisco, the place he put collectively a mixed OPS of .916 earlier than transferring to Arizona State and going full supernova. He slashed .353/.443/.725 with 18 residence runs over 55 video games as a Wildcat. The Twins picked him within the second spherical in 2023, and he proceeded to blast his manner up the minors. He posted a mixed 154 wRC+ over 31 video games that summer time, beginning within the Advanced League and ending at Excessive-A. In 2024, he mixed for a 157 wRC+ between Excessive-A and Double-A regardless of coping with elbow points that compelled him to bear Tommy John surgical procedure close to the top of the season. It was a ridiculously speedy restoration, as he made it again to start out the 2025 season with Triple-A St. Paul after having surgical procedure final August. He was rapidly known as up (and West) to Minneapolis, debuting within the huge leagues three weeks into the season. He has nonetheless performed in simply 153 skilled video games. He’s solely spent 28 video games in Triple-A, and totally half of these got here within the rehab stint after fracturing his surgically repaired arm. That’s proper, his rehab stint was greater than twice so long as his main league profession to that time.
What Keaschall has carried out to date isn’t precisely unprecedented. In line with Stathead, he’s certainly one of 44 completely different gamers to run an OPS of 1.200 or higher over his first 12 video games since 1995. However the names on that listing are awfully encouraging. It comprises its share of flashes within the pan, headlined by Aristides Aquino (1.573 OPS), who put up 1.1 WAR over his first 12 video games then 0.3 for the remainder of his profession. However it additionally options strong main leaguers, real stars, one particular future Corridor of Famer in Albert Pujols, and one probably future Corridor of Famer in Joey Votto.
What does all this imply going ahead? Keaschall now has a 214 wRC+ to go along with a .386 batting common, and he’s clearly not going to maintain this up endlessly. Earlier than the season, ZiPS and Steamer mixed to venture Keaschall for a .321 wOBA. They now have him at .336. That’s not dangerous for 13 days of labor, nevertheless it’s a far cry from the .480 he’s rocking proper now. Pitchers gained’t maintain throwing the ball within the zone towards him 57% of the time and over the guts of the plate 34% of the time — a lot increased charges than any certified batter has seen. Nonetheless, after chasing so much in school, Keaschall put up wonderful stroll and strikeout charges within the minors, and that’s continued to date within the majors. With the Twins, he has a 9.8% stroll price to go along with a minuscule 7.8% strikeout price. Even when this gained’t final endlessly, it’s definitely encouraging.
The actual query is concerning the energy in Keaschall’s bat. He got here in at third on our listing of Minnesota’s high prospects again in June, and as Eric Longenhagen and James Fegan wrote on the time, “A relative lack of energy could trigger Keaschall’s stroll charges to sag within the bigs, and in addition may trigger his hit instrument to minimize due to mild contact high quality.” Then again, when the Twins first known as him up, Jeffrey Paternostro of Baseball Prospectus wrote, “Each time I’ve written {that a} prospect must discover a steadiness between contact and energy, I’ve been envisioning one thing like what he brings to the plate. He’s unlikely to achieve in-game plus energy towards major-league arms, however Keaschall ought to constantly bop 15-20 bombs whereas making loads of contact and getting on-base at a very good clip.” Up to now, at the very least, Keaschall has continued to appear like an amazing contact hitter who simply may raise and pull the ball sufficient to make do with average exit velocities. Nonetheless, we should always most likely be ready for the eventuality that what we’re seeing now could be what Keaschall will appear like at his very best. He’s operating pristine chase, whiff, and squared-up charges, however his bat pace grades out very low. His common exit velocity is near league common proper now, however that’s whereas he’s hitting like there’s no tomorrow. His hard-hit price remains to be beneath common, and his Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity would put him within the twenty second percentile. 5 of Keaschall’s extra-base hits have come on doubles ripped down the third final analysis, and that’s most likely what we should always count on going ahead.
Keaschall may also need to discover a place. Again in June, Eric and James wrote, “Keaschall’s greatest place is ‘hitter.’” He hasn’t seemed comfy in his restricted time at second base, and the arm hasn’t seemed nice both. The Twins tried him on the outfield within the minors, however there’s not a ton of room within the Minnesota outfield, and his elbow restricted him to first base and designated hitter a few of the time anyway. If Keaschall can pull off an honest second base, then being an amazing contact hitter with a little bit of pop makes him a extremely helpful participant, however that’s very a lot an open query. If he slides all the way down to first base or DH, the outlook isn’t as rosy.
If all this sounds a bit acquainted, you’re not fallacious. For no matter cause, in latest seasons, Twins hitters have been going off the second they attain the majors. Ryan Jeffers ran a 154 wRC+ over his first 20 video games in 2020. Trevor Larnach recorded a 143 wRC+ over his first 21 video games in 2021. Jose Miranda chipped in a 116 wRC+ in his rookie marketing campaign in 2022. Royce Lewis exploded out of the gate in 2022 and 2023, posting a 152 wRC+ over his first 70 video games, then including 4 homers in six postseason video games. Each Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner completed with a 134 wRC+ as rookies. Final season, Brooks Lee surged to a 165 wRC+ over his first 12 video games. All of those hitters got here all the way down to earth sooner or later, whilst a few of them have confirmed to be wonderful hitters, however none of them has began out as scorching as Keaschall. For now, at the very least, there’s not rather more we may ask of him.