For a lot of the first two months of the 2025 season, Cincinnati Reds right-hander Hunter Greene seemed appreciated one of many NL Cy Younger favorites. Alas, much like the destiny of protagonists in humorous YouTube movies, groin accidents got here to move, and after first lacking two begins in Might earlier than returning for 3, Greene has been on the shelf for the reason that begin of June. In one more instance of correlation not which means causation, the Reds performed their finest ball of the 12 months with out their ace, going 32-26 since Greene’s final begin. Whereas they wouldn’t make the playoffs if the season ended immediately, the New York Mets, one of many groups Cincinnati is trying up at, have been reeling for the reason that commerce deadline and have now misplaced seven video games in a row. The Reds are simply two video games behind the Mets within the standings, so now’s pretty much as good a time as any to get Greene again within the rotation. And would you take a look at that? He’s scheduled to begin on Wednesday in opposition to the Phillies.
Now in his fourth season, Greene has developed from a gifted, however comparatively uncooked prospect right into a bonafide ace. His repertoire is mostly unchanged, and he stays a largely fastball-slider pitcher; the largest distinction is he’s phased out his changeup in favor of a nasty splitter, although he makes use of that pitch relatively sparingly. How terrific is his stuff? Nicely, should you’re not satisfied by watching him for your self, his three pitches rank so extremely in Stuff+ that you just would possibly assume he had been secretly sending Eno Sarris truckloads of unique beers to attempt to tip the scales in his favor. Of the 138 pitchers with 150 innings for the reason that begin of 2024, Greene’s slider ranks fourth in Stuff+, his splitter ninth, and his fastball eleventh. His arsenal has an general Stuff+ score of 116 — the best within the majors. Pitchingbot shouldn’t be fairly that complimentary of Greene, but it surely additionally holds him in excessive regard; his botStf of 57 ranks twenty first throughout that very same span (min. 150 innings).
The slider shouldn’t be solely a very nasty pitch, however he makes use of it a bit in a different way than most starters. Regardless of having a viable splitter, Greene aggressively makes use of his slider in opposition to lefties. With its velocity and chunk, he virtually makes use of it like a cutter that threatens to take out the batter’s lead kneecap. There have been 106 beginning pitchers for the reason that begin of 2024 who’ve thrown not less than 100 sliders, and none of them has had a extra whiffable one in cross-platoon conditions than Greene.
Sliders With Platoon Drawback, 2024-2025
This slider is what has enabled Greene to outlive as a really heavy fastball-slider pitcher, one thing you see much more usually with relievers. On this means, he’s similar to Kevin Gausman — although swapping splitter and slider — who additionally depends closely on two pitches, fortunately utilizing his splitter in opposition to righties, finding it in the identical means one other pitcher would use a slider. However Greene seems to have mastered this much more shortly than Gausman did.
After all, Greene has achieved extra than simply survive. He has knocked one other stroll per 9 off his numbers this 12 months, one thing constant together with his elite 74.3% first-strike proportion. His FIPs over the past two seasons (3.47 in 2024, 3.42 this 12 months) again up his growth right into a frontline starter, and the Reds would absolutely be comfortable sufficient if that’s the place his precise outcomes ended up, too. Nonetheless, you’ll discover that his ERAs (2.75 final 12 months, 2.72 in 2025) are even higher than that. A few of that, in fact, has been fueled by low BABIP numbers, however in his case, we shouldn’t be all that skeptical of the legitimacy of his efficiency. The Reds have ranked twenty fifth in FRV for the reason that begin of 2024, so he’s operating these low BABIPs regardless of having a shoddy protection behind him.
Instantly after the commerce deadline, the ZiPS projection system noticed the Reds as having a 12.5% likelihood of creating the postseason. The division appeared out of attain — and it undoubtedly is now with the Brewers surging — and ZiPS noticed Cincinnati’s competitors for the three Wild Card spots, the Padres, Mets, and Cubs, as clearly stronger golf equipment general. Regardless of the Mets’ struggles, ZiPS has solely pumped the Reds’ playoff chance as much as 14.4%. The factor is, although these projections replicate Greene’s pending return, there may be nonetheless room for his or her odds to rise if he comes again easily; the total ZiPS mannequin is especially skeptical of the workloads that pitchers will carry coming off an harm, so this projection assumes Greene will throw solely 31 innings over the remainder of the season. Nonetheless, if we additionally embrace the 11 extra innings that our Depth Charts tasks for Greene, and use his ZiPS projected efficiency as of Might 1, simply earlier than he first harm his groin, Cincinnati’s playoff chance jumps to 21.3%. Which will appear comparatively modest in absolute phrases, however that distinction is a bigger playoff enhance than any staff bought for any commerce deadline acquisition this 12 months. The Reds are proper on the cusp of the playoff image, the place extra wins are most essential, and his return may very well be essentially the most impactful within the league.
Having Greene at full energy could be equally essential for the Reds within the postseason in the event that they get there. ZiPS sees Cincinnati as a below-average playoff staff no matter whether or not Greene is wholesome and performing nicely, however at his finest, he boosts the membership’s projected postseason successful proportion by seven factors. Elly De La Cruz is the one Reds participant who makes a higher impact together with his presence alone.
The return of Greene additionally supplies the Reds a little bit extra insurance coverage within the occasion that Nick Lodolo, who landed on the 15-day IL with a blister on his index finger final week, takes a bit longer than anticipated to get well, as blisters can typically be tough to shake within the quick time period. Additionally, ZiPS stays down on the Cincinnati offense. It expects the lineup to be under common (95 wRC+) the remainder of the way in which. In all chance, the Reds will go solely so far as their pitching can take them.
The Mets in all probability gained’t go winless the remainder of the 12 months — I say “in all probability” due to how usually their seasons finish equally to a German fairy story — so the Reds have an uphill battle to play some bonus baseball this fall. If that’s going to occur, they’ll want Greene to return on the high of his recreation.