Earlier than they fell into the turbulent wake of the white-hot Brewers, the Cubs had been flirting with the perfect file in baseball for a lot of the season. You understand the highlights: Pete Crow-Armstrong flies via the air and smacks homers. Kyle Tucker is a celebrity making a reputation for himself earlier than hitting free company. Michael Busch is having a mini-breakout of his personal. Seiya Suzuki is a constant energy risk. Dansby Swanson is a metronome within the type of a glove-first shortstop.
You may preserve naming names for fairly some time, the truth is, earlier than you get to the Cubs’ two longest-tenured hitters. Ian Happ debuted method again in 2017. He’s transitioned from a superutility position to the nook outfield whereas that includes in the course of the lineup for practically a decade, a first-division common although hardly ever an All-Star. He’s not the main focus of right this moment’s article, although. That may be the opposite longest-tenured Cub, Nico Hoerner.
Hoerner bought a cup of espresso on the finish of the 2019 season, performed a bench position in 2020, and bought injured repeatedly simply as he gave the impression to be settling in as a starter in 2021. He’s been a locked-in on a regular basis man ever since, at shortstop for a yr after which at second after Swanson signed with the workforce in free company. And between a succession of newer and extra thrilling Cubs debuting and the jack-of-all-trades nature of his sport, Hoerner’s stardom is usually missed. However missed or not, Hoerner is a star, and so I believed I’d look at his constant excellence as he churns via yet one more quietly excellent season.
It’s becoming that the final two FanGraphs articles about Hoerner, each by Davy Andrews, are about homerless seasons and all the time making contact. These two issues completely clarify the extremes of Hoerner’s sport. However regardless of these two extremes, Hoerner’s offensive expertise are the truth is nearly precisely common.
His profession 102 wRC+ doesn’t even start to explain it. Hoerner has by no means had a season with a wRC+ above 108. Beginning in 2021, the primary yr he was an everyday, he’s by no means had a season under a 102 wRC+. He’s been 6% above common OBP-wise in his profession, whereas being 7% under common with regards to slugging. His BABIP? An especially regular .306; there’s nothing unusual or seemingly unsustainable happening right here.
A whole lot of minor league defensive wizards attempt to put collectively offensive video games like Hoerner’s. Almost all of them fail. Nick Allen, Nicky Lopez, David Fletcher, Nick Madrigal, Joey Wendle, Isiah Kiner-Falefa – a few of these guys are strong gamers, however none of them ever managed to make the powerless, whiffless sport work. Pitchers simply didn’t allow them to; a gentle eating regimen of fastballs within the strike zone early and nasty breaking pitches from advantageous counts is simply too well-oiled of a mix.
It’s very tough to stay each picky and contact-oriented. Fouling off powerful pitches is all properly and good, however should you’re within the behavior of swinging defensively, the transition to chasing pitches exterior the zone is each disastrous and exhausting to keep away from. One thing typically budges, whether or not it’s too many strikeouts or not sufficient walks. These aren’t usually disqualifying points, however for gamers of this basic model, they’re problematic. Making this a lot contact typically includes sacrificing energy fully; Hoerner, for instance, is within the seventh percentile for bat velocity and the sixth percentile for hard-hit price. In the event you by no means draw any walks, or should you strike out an excessive amount of, the maths received’t add up.
For Hoerner, the steadiness has all the time held. He’s chasing about as usually right this moment as he did in the beginning of his profession, and making contact at a spectacular price identical to all the time. Have a look at how constant his efficiency is:
Nico Hoerner’s Consistency
| 12 months | Chase% | Contact% | Okay-BB% | ISO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 33.6% | 86.7% | 5.6% | .129 |
| 2023 | 30.9% | 88.6% | 5.0% | .100 |
| 2024 | 31.8% | 89.1% | 3.4% | .100 |
| 2025 | 32.3% | 89.6% | 1.7% | .086 |
That cohort of contact-first center infielders I in contrast him to? Their numbers principally have the identical sample: A better zone price over time, a better chase price and decrease Okay-BB%, a decrease ISO. All of those make sense collectively, flowing naturally from the hitter’s limitations. However Hoerner simply hasn’t performed that. He’s stored his aggression nearly completely unchanged whilst he sees extra strikes; he’s strolling lower than ever however hanging out lower than ever too. If pitchers need to throw him a bunch of stuff within the zone, that’s wonderful; he’ll put it in play. It is smart that Hoerner nearly by no means walks — with a profession ISO of .100, the opposition ought to actually make him put the ball in play as an alternative of giving him a free base, so if a pitcher can discover the zone towards Hoerner, they’ll. Nevertheless it additionally is smart that he nearly by no means strikes out, as a result of he makes a ton of contact and doesn’t swing at dangerous pitches.
That doesn’t sound like an incredible ability set, and in fact, it’s not. It’s nearly completely common within the mixture. However completely common is nice! Baseball is tough! Hoerner’s bat was all the time the sketchiest a part of his profile as a prospect. When he will get on base, he’s a frequent and profitable thief. He’s fifth within the majors in steals since 2022, and he succeeds at an 86% clip when he takes off. He’s instinctual on the basepaths and quick, too. He’s inarguably probably the greatest baserunners within the massive leagues, yr after yr. And that’s not even his greatest ability.
Defensively, Hoerner is a rarity, a real shortstop taking part in second base. He’s doing so as a result of Swanson occupies quick, however there’s no query about Hoerner’s bona fides there. He was nice in 2022 and has been nothing however excellent, overqualified even, at second. The most effective defensive second basemen are all like that – Brice Turang, Andres Gimenez, Bryson Stott, and Marcus Semien all match the invoice. Someplace alongside the road, they ceded quick to a superior defender, nevertheless it was by selection quite than out of necessity. Most groups don’t have this luxurious as a result of they play their wonderful shortstop defenders at, properly, shortstop. Like these different 4, Hoerner is excellent with the glove. He’s sure-handed, rangy, and has sufficient arm energy to make the entire package deal work. Between taking part in lots and taking part in properly, he’s been the Tenth-most worthwhile defender, interval, for the reason that begin of the 2022 season. The fellows in entrance of him? A pile of nice catchers and elite shortstops.
What do you get while you mix elite protection and baserunning with a mean bat? About 4 wins a yr, because it seems. Hoerner’s WAR has been as constant as his wRC+. He checked in with 4.3 in 2022, 4.6 in 2023, and three.9 in 2024. He’s on tempo for 4.1 WAR in 2025. That may not sound like a lot – he’s by no means had a breakout season – however there simply aren’t many gamers in baseball this persistently good. It’d shock you to study that Hoerner is twenty second amongst all hitters in WAR over the previous 4 years, wedged between William Contreras, Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Xander Bogaerts.
It appears unusual to see him that top on the checklist, proper? It actually does for me. Once I have a look at the WAR leaderboards, I are inclined to low cost the defensive specialists. The best way we calculate their worth is messy, and it all the time looks like one man or one other is spiking a BABIP-and-OAA-fueled standout season. Heck, Nicky Lopez, who I used as an unflattering comparability earlier on this article, has a 5.5-WAR season in his rearview. However Hoerner simply retains chugging alongside. He’s not an outlier. He’s good throughout the board yearly, with out fail. That in itself is a hanging accomplishment.
Right here’s one other mind-set about it: As I already talked about, there are 21 gamers who’ve accrued extra offensive WAR than Hoerner for the reason that begin of 2022. Hoerner hasn’t but put up a five-win season, however solely three of these 21 have didn’t put up a six win season. The sorts of gamers who dot this leaderboard are typically enormous stars with MVP aspirations. Hoerner has by no means gotten an MVP vote. Heck, he’s by no means even made an All-Star workforce.
When the Cubs take the postseason stage this October, the promotional spots will in all probability give attention to Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker. Why wouldn’t they? These guys are nice, they usually’re every delivering a spectacular season. Hoerner received’t get high billing; he received’t even be second on the marquee. However he’s one of many easiest gamers in baseball, yr after yr, and all the time in the identical method. So right here’s to Nico Hoerner – the star you didn’t know you couldn’t see.