In at Least One Respect, Ryan Bergert Seems Like an Ace

There’s no such factor as an ideal pitcher. There are guys with an unbelievable skill to spin the ball, however nothing to throw for whiffs on the prime of the zone. (Mitch Keller and Matt Brash come to thoughts.) Some pitchers pump backspin four-seamers, however by no means choose a dependable secondary. (Ryne Nelson, I’m taking a look at you.) Excelling at one factor usually means being poor at one other.

Nonetheless, even when there are not any good pitchers, there are some who come nearer than others. Prime Gerrit Cole featured a carry heater and a agency slider with significant horizontal break. Jacob deGrom? Identical deal. Some guys break our basic understanding of the tradeoffs between sure pitch varieties. Most of these guys are aces. One among them is Ryan Bergert — no less than probably.

If that title rings a bell, it’s doubtless as a result of Bergert featured in a deadline deal that introduced him to Kansas Metropolis (together with Stephen Kolek, a rock-solid fifth starter kind) in trade for backup catcher Freddy Fermin. In these early days following the commerce, Fermin is acquitting himself effectively, lining a bunch of base hits and putting out simply as soon as to date.

Fermin is efficacious — particularly to the catcher-deprived Padres — although not notably thrilling. He’s underneath staff management for the remainder of the last decade, however he’s firmly locked into the “light-hitting backstop with glorious defensive abilities” archetype. Bergert, however, strikes me as a man with severe upside.

The outcomes aren’t fairly there but, no less than when it comes to the peripherals, however Bergert is ready to do two issues that guys who aren’t named Cole or deGrom typically can’t: He can backspin a fastball, and he can throw a agency breaking ball with a bunch of horizontal motion:

Bergert received’t blow you away with velocity. He averages 93.6 mph on his four-seam fastball, nearly a tick and a half under the league common for righties. (That’s in all probability why Stuff+, PitchingBot, and StuffPro all assume his four-seamer is near a league-average providing.) However the form is premium. Bergert will get almost 19 inches of induced vertical break on his heater, ninth-most amongst starters with no less than 250 fastballs thrown:

Bergert’s over-the-top arm angle (50 levels) and unremarkable vertical method angle negate among the misleading results of the pitch, nevertheless it nonetheless will get about an inch and a half of surprising trip, per Alex Chamberlain’s dynamic useless zone estimate. Ryan Pepiot’s backspin fastball is a stable comparability; even with so-so launch traits, Pepiot’s heater nonetheless generates a bunch of swinging strikes on the prime of the zone because of its vertical motion.

As within the case of Pepiot, the plus trip on Bergert’s fastball is a perform of his backspin bias. His 95% fastball spin effectivity suggests he belongs to the pronator class of pitchers, tending to get “behind the ball” at launch. Pitchers with this bias wrestle to throw pitches with seam-shifted wake, like sweepers or sinkers, which depend upon decrease spin-efficiency launch. In consequence, you normally received’t see a pronator throwing a sweeper; it’s tough to get to that large horizontal form with out altering the grip on the ball to the purpose that it loses efficient velocity.

Tyler Zombro discusses the speed tradeoffs that pronators should make to throw glove-side breaking balls in a Tread video I’ve referenced earlier than, titled “How To Customise Your Pitching Arsenal (Pronation vs. Supination).” Within the part on pronators, Zombro factors out that “for those who’re extra behind the ball, and also you wrestle to get round it, the velo deficit it would take so that you can get to [zero inches of horizontal break] goes to be -8, -10 mph.”

Right here’s the place Bergert is particular. Even with pronator traits — a fastball with excessive spin effectivity and vital complete motion — he can get to a sweeper form with minimal velocity sacrifice. Bergert will get over 13 inches of horizontal break on his sweeper with solely 10 mph of velocity deficit.

The desk under exhibits the weird nature of Bergert’s fastball-sweeper relationship. To that finish, I measured the sweeper-fastball velo differential for all carry fastball pitchers. The overwhelming majority, naturally, don’t throw sweepers. Of the 27 pitchers who do, solely three had a smaller hole in velocity between their four-seam fastball and their sweeper: Lake Bachar, Kris Bubic, and Cade Povich. And none of these guys get as a lot horizontal motion on their sweeper as Bergert does:

Is that this sufficient by itself to make him an excellent pitcher? I’m not precisely certain. His general arsenal scores, per Baseball Prospectus‘ Stephen Sutton-Brown, are unimpressive. His fastball options glorious motion, nevertheless it doesn’t tunnel notably effectively together with his slider or sweeper. The rate unfold between his pitches is comparatively slender; he doesn’t have an enormous crazy curveball to offset hitters’ timing, and his changeup stays a work-in-progress:

However I imagine the Royals see the outlines of a particular pitcher. In his two begins following the commerce, Bergert has already ramped up his sweeper utilization, notably to left-handed hitters. In his first begin, a 5 2/3 inning effort at Fenway the place he allowed simply two hits and two walks, Bergert stored whipping that sweeper backdoor to steal early-count strikes. As a result of Bergert typically targets the periphery together with his fastball, it’s almost not possible for hitters to drag the set off when he swings within the sweeper from manner exterior:

These repertoire adjustments are translating to early success. Bergert delivered the beginning of his younger profession Sunday, hanging one slider for a two-run house run however in any other case dominating the Twins over 5 2/3 innings, tying a career-high with eight strikeouts.

Even with these advances, Bergert remains to be comparatively early in his improvement journey. As just lately as final season, he threw from a comparatively typical three-quarters slot. As Eric Longenhagen wrote in June, “[Bergert] and the Padres have made profitable adjustments to his supply and pitch combine which have his fastball taking part in higher in 2025 than ever earlier than. Berget’s arm slot has been raised, and he’s added a tick of velo, now sitting 94 with extra pure vertical motion due to his new launch level.” Eric shared some Double-An information with me from previous to Bergert’s slot change. In early 2024, he was sitting three inches decrease with 4 fewer inches of extension. This yr, he’s hiked up that launch level, moved additional down the mound, and added backspin to his fastball.

The adaptability is auspicious. If Bergert can develop his changeup, add a gradual curveball, or begin finding his heater above the zone quite than on the periphery, he would possibly begin to method the purpose the place he appears like an excellent beginning pitcher. On the very least, the fastball/sweeper combo is a positive place to begin, and will maybe be the blueprint for him growing into an ace.