Pitching analyst Lance Brozdowski has been on Brandon Woodruff because the Brewers right-hander returned from a 2023 shoulder surgical procedure on July 6. Brozdowski has written about Woodruff twice, first breaking down the ways in which he appears to be like like a special pitcher this season. His second piece was titled “How Is Brandon Woodruff Doing This?” I’d like to essentially dig in and reply that query, each as a result of when Brozdowski asks a query it’s normally a great one and since Woodruff’s numbers actually are complicated. As Michael Baumann famous a number of weeks in the past, Woodruff’s return coincided virtually precisely with Milwaukee’s latest unbeatable stretch. “If Woodruff is effectively and actually again,” Baumann wrote, “for my cash he’s a much bigger add than any starter who’s prone to get moved on the deadline.” Woodruff has gone 4-0 with a 2.29 ERA, a 3.73 FIP, and a 34.9% strikeout charge over his six begins, and he’ll doubtless be an enormous a part of the workforce’s playoff rotation, however whether or not he’s again remains to be very a lot an open query.
Earlier than we get into all the things, we should always speak about Woodruff’s arsenal, which not less than for a short while seemed fairly totally different this season. A month in the past at Brewer Fanatic, Matthew Trueblood analyzed Woodruff’s repertoire throughout his minor league rehab project, and wrote that to be able to achieve success, “Woodruff might want to reinvent himself.” The pitcher appeared to agree, not less than at first. This season within the majors, he has thrown a four-seamer, sinker, changeup, cutter, curve, and sweeper. The cutter is new, with the sweeper changing his conventional slider. Nevertheless, he hasn’t thrown the sweeper since his second begin (doubtless as a result of it was the second sport in a row the opposite workforce homered on the pitch), and he’s additionally drastically decreased his cutter utilization over his final two begins. He’s additionally almost evened out his fastball utilization. In recent times, Woodruff led along with his four-seamer, however now he’s throwing it 34% of the time and his sinker 31%, main with the sinker towards righties and the four-seamer towards lefties. His curveball is down to five% and his changeup has held regular at 17%. In different phrases, Woodruff is throwing a fastball 65% of the time, and that quantity jumps to 77% of the time when you rely the cutter:
Let’s begin with the explanations for suspicion, and please notice that this part makes up 5 full paragraphs. Luck is an enormous part right here. Woodruff is at present working a .143 BABIP and a 100% strand charge. Eight of the 9 earned runs he’s allowed have come on dwelling runs. These are massively unsustainable numbers. The league averages a .289 BABIP and 72.5% strand charge. Although he’s spent his whole profession pitching in entrance of a superb Milwaukee protection, Woodruff has by no means run a BABIP under .269 or a strand charge above 82% (besides in 2023, when he solely made 11 begins). It doesn’t matter what else occurs, we should always anticipate his BABIP so as to add not less than 100 factors and his strand charge to drop by not less than 20% going ahead.
Woodruff’s fastball velocity is down considerably, which isn’t precisely surprising after shoulder surgical procedure. From 2019 to 2022, he averaged 96.4 mph on his heater. Earlier than he obtained damage in 2023, he was right down to 95.9 mph. Up to now this season, he’s at 93.1 mph. In accordance with Baseball Savant, which means he went from being within the eighty fifth percentile in 2022 to the twenty ninth percentile this season. He’s gone from having plus velocity to having – uh, is there a scouting phrase for the other of plus? – let’s say unplus velocity. It was a energy; now it’s a weak point. There’s no method for us to know whether or not Woodruff will get a few of that velocity again over the long-term. Shoulder surgical procedure is an enormous deal, and as a 32-year-old, we’d’ve anticipated him to have misplaced some velocity by now anyway. Perhaps it received’t come again in any respect, or perhaps it would come again ultimately, however we undoubtedly shouldn’t anticipate him to be sitting 95 mph by October.
Woodruff has additionally misplaced important motion on most of his pitches. His four-seamer each rises and runs lower than it did in 2023. So does his changeup. His curveball drops much less, and his sinker runs much less and rises extra. As you would possibly anticipate, the stuff fashions are usually not thrilled about slower pitches that transfer much less. In 2023, PitchingBot gave Woodruff’s stuff a 54 grade, whereas Stuff+ had him at 108. This season, these numbers are 41 and 96. Except the brand new sweeper he’s thrown simply seven occasions, each fashions suppose all of his pitches are worse than they have been in 2023.
Actuality appears to agree with the fashions. Woodruff’s 25.9% chase charge is his lowest since 2018. His groundball charge has completely cratered, from proper round 38% in 2022 and 2023 to 26% this season. Not solely is he permitting batters to hit the ball within the air, he’s permitting them to drag it within the air. That’s essentially the most harmful form of contact there may be, and amongst pitchers who’ve allowed not less than 50 balls in play, Woodruff’s 23.4% pulled air ball charge places him within the 92nd percentile, in a foul method. His 9.1% barrel charge is the best of his profession. Batters have a median bat velocity of 72.8 mph towards him, a mark that ranks tenth highest among the many 438 pitchers who’ve thrown not less than 400 pitches thus far this season. Batters are seeing the ball and swinging from their heels.
We must also point out the competitors. Woodruff has confronted the Marlins and Nationals twice, the Mets as soon as, and the Mariners as soon as. Because the begin of July, the Marlins, Mets, and Nationals have been three of the worst offenses in baseball, respectively rating twenty fourth, twenty fifth, and twenty seventh based on wRC+. The Marlins and the Nationals rank twenty fourth and twenty seventh in dwelling runs this season, so it’s fairly disconcerting after they’re those making you look homer-prone.
Alright, that’s the tip of the part. These are all the explanations to fret that what Woodruff has finished thus far is unsustainable. Now it’s time for the explanations to imagine, and the very first thing I’d prefer to level out is that Woodruff was ranging from a really excessive degree. He’s been a genuinely nice pitcher for years now, so though all these numbers I simply instructed you about are worse than they’ve ever been, in addition they aren’t saying he’s rubbish now. Stuff+ sees him as proper round common, and PitchingBot expects him to have a 3.57 ERA, considerably higher than the 4.12 mark that starters across the league have averaged this season.
Woodruff has additionally had his share of unhealthy luck to associate with the great this season. Up to now, 17.1% of his fly balls have gone for dwelling runs, the best charge of his profession. Now, he’s earned these homers – Statcast thinks he ought to have 6.5 homers moderately than seven – however that doesn’t imply they’re not affecting his BABIP not directly. A part of the explanation Woodruff’s BABIP is so low is that when batters have hit the ball laborious towards him, they’ve hit it out of the ballpark, and people homers don’t contribute to BABIP. Should you throw out the house runs, his xwOBA of .262 is among the many lowest within the league, and his common exit velocity of 85.9 mph can also be excellent. So whereas his BAPIP remains to be unsustainably low, there’s not less than a bit much less luck concerned than you would possibly initially suppose.
Let’s have a look at Woodruff’s stroll and strikeout charges subsequent, as a result of they’re each glorious. Regardless of the decreased stuff and the decrease chase charge, his whiff charge is correct round his profession common, and his 20.9% referred to as strike charge is the very best of his profession by a large margin. So is his 69% first strike charge. Consequently, his 34.9% strikeout charge is the very best of his profession, as is his 4.7% stroll charge. If Woodruff can maintain these numbers the place they’re, he’ll be a great pitcher even when he retains giving up homers and his BABIP bounces as much as regular ranges.
Nonetheless, I’m actually undecided how he’s incomes so many whiffs contained in the zone when his stuff appears to be like a lot worse, and I’m undecided how he’s incomes so many referred to as strikes. Right here’s my finest guess, although. The referred to as strikes are coming virtually totally from his fastballs. Collectively, the four-seamer and the sinker have a 24% referred to as strike charge. They’d by no means even hit 20% in any earlier season. Should you simply have a look at pitches inside the strike zone, that quantity jumps to 33.5% this season, as soon as once more a profession excessive by a major margin. I’m certain to a point it has to do with the groups Woodruff has performed – the Marlins and the Nationals rank twentieth and twenty fifth respectively in swing charge towards fastballs within the zone – nevertheless it might additionally must do along with his pitch combine. Whereas the lack of motion and velocity is undoubtedly a foul factor, Woodruff’s four-seamer and sinker now have a spot of 10 inches when it comes to horizontal break, the farthest aside they’ve ever been. Add within the occasional cutter, and unexpectedly, when a batter picks up velocity out of the hand, that is the pitch motion they’ve to fret about:
The four-seamer goes straight, the sinker fades, and the cutter cuts. In different phrases, the ball might journey in both course. That’s a recipe for hesitation and referred to as strikes, and it may very well be the explanation that Woodruff’s whiff and putaway charges on each his sinker and four-seamer are the best they’ve been in years. The cutter doesn’t grade out effectively based on stuff fashions, however that doesn’t imply that it’s not making Woodruff’s different fastballs look even higher.
In an analogous vein, it’s not superb that Woodruff’s sinker has extra rise, however that does create extra vertical separation between it and his changeup. Comparatively talking, the changeup abruptly has extra drop, which might assist clarify the pitch’s dominance this season. It’s a small pattern, however thus far, it has a 38% whiff charge and only a 5.9% hard-hit charge.
Woodruff has at all times been an fascinating pitcher. He’s so fastball heavy, and he’s not afraid to throw his four-seamer low within the zone. I’m actually curious to see what he does subsequent. It’s nonetheless so early for him. Will he carry again the sweeper that seemed so promising? Will he maintain phasing out the cutter? Will he throw the changeup extra usually now that it appears to be like so dominant? Will he have the ability to maintain pounding the zone along with his fastballs, and can hitters proceed to take them for strikes? As Michael Trzinski wrote at Brewer Fanatic final week, if Woodruff can maintain this up, he appears to be like like a real Comeback Participant of the 12 months candidate. The Brewers have a tougher stretch forward of them, and as of proper now, it appears to be like like his subsequent begins will come towards the Pirates, Cubs, Giants, Blue Jays, Phillies, and Rangers. That’s a a lot more durable street than he’s traveled thus far. It will be unreasonable to anticipate Woodruff to maintain working a 2.29 ERA, however I don’t suppose we all know what an affordable expectation appears to be like like simply but.