How doubtless do you suppose the Reds are to make the playoffs? I’m not asking you to guess what our Playoff Odds say about them. I’ll let you know that within the subsequent paragraph. I’m asking you to place your individual quantity on it, based mostly on what you realize and take into consideration each the Reds and the playoff image. They’re 59-54 with 49 video games to play. They’re three video games again of the Padres for the ultimate Wild Card spot and 4 behind the Mets for the second spot. Bought a quantity in your head? Then we’re prepared for one more paragraph.
Thanks for taking part in. As of this writing, our Playoff Odds give the Reds a 12.4% probability of reaching the postseason. I think about that feels somewhat mild to at the least some folks. Baseball Reference offers the Reds a 36.3% probability of constructing the playoffs. They’re inside 4 video games of each the Mets and the Padres. They’re additionally inside 5 video games of the Phillies, the first-place staff within the NL East. If the Reds preserve taking part in like they’re taking part in and any a kind of groups has a late-season swoon, they’re in. In accordance with Pythagorean Win-Loss expectancy, they need to have the identical document because the Mets proper now and a greater document than the Padres. They simply added on the deadline. Hunter Greene appears to be like like he’ll be again quickly, and Elly De La Cruz positive appears to be like just like the sort of participant who can put a staff on his again for a pair weeks and carry it over the end line.
Then once more, I’m positive that quantity feels excessive to some folks. You’ll be able to perceive why the numbers don’t just like the Reds. Baseball Reference offers them such a excessive probability as a result of it ignores roster composition, and, properly, the Reds have a weaker roster than the groups forward of them. They rank twenty second in place participant WAR, they usually didn’t add as a lot on the deadline because the Phillies, Mets, or Padres. Actually, in accordance with ZiPS, they really grew to become 3.2% much less prone to make the playoffs when the deadline mud settled, due to doubts about Ke’Bryan Hayes and presumably as a result of the opposite groups added a lot extra. They’ve had the fifth-easiest schedule in baseball thus far within the season, they usually’ve obtained the hardest schedule in baseball from right here on out. They’ve overperformed their xwOBA by six factors, the second-highest such hole in baseball. Not solely do our projections have the Reds lacking the playoffs, they’ve them ending at 82-80, one recreation above .500 for the season and 7 video games behind the Padres within the standings.
This text isn’t meant to be a referendum on the Reds. I’ve been specializing in them thus far as a result of they’re the one staff within the Nationwide League whose Playoff Odds are between 10% and 85%. Let me say that one other manner. With a 12.4% probability of constructing the playoffs, they’re someway the closest staff within the Nationwide League to 50%. Right here’s what that appears like in a desk (particularly, the skinniest desk you’ll ever see right here at FanGraphs). Beneath is your entire Nationwide League, leaving out all groups with odds above 97% or beneath 3%, since they appear like kind of positive issues. That is your entire playoff image.
NL Odds
| Staff | % |
|---|---|
| Mets | 91.9% |
| Padres | 87.8% |
| Reds | 12.4% |
| Giants | 6.6% |
| Cardinals | 5.7% |
That doesn’t go away lots of groups, and even this group of 5 splits into two very apparent classes. It’s a battle over two spots, and the second-place staff has an fringe of about 75 share factors on the membership in third. We’ve obtained the Mets and Padres in line to get the ultimate two Wild Card spots, after which we’ve obtained all people else. The Giants and Cardinals simply bought on the deadline. Even they’re not giving themselves an opportunity. The Reds and Padres are the one groups between 90% and 10%. If the Reds make the playoffs, it will likely be an enormous shock, at the least in accordance with the robots who see the long run.
Issues are extra equitable within the American League, however it’s nonetheless awfully stratified. The Crimson Sox are at present 2 1/2 video games forward of the Yankees within the Wild Card standings, however Boston has the third-best Playoff Odds (78.8%) of the groups not in first place, behind New York (85.1%) and Seattle (80.0%). The projections see the Rangers because the staff prone to find yourself simply out of the image. The drop-off between the Crimson Sox and the Rangers is 40.6 share factors, from 78.8% to 38.2%. Boston’s odds are greater than twice as excessive!
This isn’t regular. On this date final yr, six completely different groups had Playoff Odds between 40% and 60%. Two groups met that standards on this date in 2023 and three groups in 2022. This yr, the fourth season of this new prolonged Wild Card format, it’s zero. Our Playoff Odds return to 2014, and even within the outdated Wild Card format, we by no means obtained thus far within the calendar with no groups between 40% and 60%. Actually, there have been at the least two groups in that scenario in each season besides 2019. That is shaping as much as be the least aggressive playoff race in latest reminiscence. In principle, this new playoff format ought to make the postseason extra accessible for extra groups. The bar for entry just isn’t a lot above .500, and many groups often hang around proper round .500. Possibly this yr is an outlier, or perhaps it’s what we must always come to anticipate going ahead, with the league break up up so neatly into tremendous groups and tremendous tankers, consumers and sellers. Should you promote on the deadline, you may inform your followers you’re constructing for the long run. Should you simply miss the playoffs, you simply failed, and chances are you’ll not get all of the credit score you deserve for making an attempt.
Earlier than I go away you, I ought to give the apparent reminder that these are simply projections. They’re good, however they’re not good. A number of unexpected issues will occur. The Rangers look able to making a run. The Reds have a one-in-8.1 probability of constructing the playoffs, and extra unbelievable issues occur on a regular basis. The Tigers had a 0.2% probability of constructing the playoffs on this date final yr, and you may nonetheless purchase T-shirts commemorating what occurred subsequent. Even when nothing adjustments, there’ll nonetheless be battles. The Mets and the Phillies may duke it out till the final recreation of the season within the NL East. The AL East has three groups with an actual shot. The Brewers and Cubs may make it shut within the NL Central, and the Astros and Mariners may do the identical within the AL West. A few of these races will have an effect on who will get a bye and who doesn’t. It will likely be thrilling. However none of that signifies that the projections don’t present us with significant data. So far as who’s making the playoffs and who isn’t, it’s been at the least 11 years since we’ve seen so little suspense at this level within the calendar.