I used to be a younger baseball author working in Houston when Carlos Correa got here up with the Astros. On the time, I used to be satisfied that this 6-foot-4 mountain of a person with an enormous throwing arm however unimpressive foot velocity would find yourself at third base earlier than too lengthy. Lots has occurred since then. When fellow shortstop prospect Alex Bregman obtained promoted a yr later, it was Bregman, not Correa, who slid over to 3rd. From there, Correa developed right into a Platinum Glove winner and a constant plus-10 defender or higher.
Then Correa left the Astros solely and stayed away after a profitable one-season audition with the Twins. Even after a reunion with Houston was mooted within the lead-up to the deadline, the scuttlebutt stated it wasn’t taking place and the Astros traded for Ramón Urías to fill the Isaac Paredes-shaped gap within the infield.
However in spite of everything these bumps within the highway, and after 10 years of ready, I turned out to be proper in spite of everything: Correa is headed again to Houston, together with $33 million in money, for minor league left-hander Matt Mikulski, and in accordance with my prediction, Correa goes to play third base.
By no means abandon your takes, children, you haven’t any concept when the universe will determine to show you proper.
The Astros additional beefed up their lineup by including outfielder Jesús Sánchez minutes after the Correa deal. Pitcher Ryan Gusto goes to Miami, together with prospects Esmil Valencia and Chase Jaworsky. That’s a sneaky good pickup, given the present state of Houston’s outfield, however Correa is the headliner.
Make no mistake: This can be a wage dump. The Twins greased the wheels for this commerce by paying down a part of Correa’s contract, however even after the money infusion, plus Minnesota’s share of remaining signing bonus payouts, Houston is taking over (by my math, which Jon Becker double-checked) some $70.4 million in wage between now and the tip of 2028.
Suffice it to say: If the Correa of 2025 have been the Correa of 2017, and even the Correa of 2022, this deal wouldn’t be taking place. The Twins signed Correa to profitable free agent offers twice within the hopes of touchdown a authentic famous person who’d slipped by the cracks. Bear in mind how, within the 2022-23 offseason, Correa agreed to contracts price greater than $300 million with each the Giants and Mets, solely to have these offers yanked after a bodily?
The Twins, normally removed from a hotbed of free agent exercise, gave Correa a six-year, $200 million contract with incentives and choices to remain in Minnesota. They thought the massive market groups’ cowardice might be their achieve, bringing a marketable two-way famous person to the Twin Cities for good.
Seems the massive market groups’ cowardice was truly only a good move. The particular harm at concern then was an previous ankle surgical procedure, and Correa’s leg has truly been pretty sound over the previous three years.
He has, nonetheless, gone on the IL with plantar fasciitis twice and made different IL journeys for a concussion and an intercostal pressure, whereas lacking the odd sport right here and there with varied different accidents. If you happen to depend a stint on the COVID checklist in 2021 as an IL journey, 2020 is the one season since 2016 during which Correa averted a stint on the IL.
And when he’s been in a position to keep on the sphere, the outcomes have been inconsistent. Final yr, Correa put up a .310/.388/.517 line with 14 homers in 86 video games. That’s a 155 wRC+ and 4.2 WAR in about half a season — authentic MVP territory. Or runner-up-to-Aaron-Decide-in-MVP-voting territory these days, which is not any much less spectacular. Then, after all, the plantar fasciitis flared up.
Correa was principally wholesome in 2023, and once more this yr, however he posted a 94 wRC+ then and a 97 wRC+ now, with 42 double performs throughout that season-and-a-half run.
That is kind of the converse of the Mets prospects who went to the Giants within the Tyler Rogers commerce on Wednesday. Correa is as huge a reputation as there’s, and he performed like a famous person simply final yr, however the title worth doesn’t match up with the manufacturing. I feel you must deal with him like a mean hitter with the potential to be a really, excellent defender at third. Something the Astros get on high of that’s gravy.
Even working by that extraordinarily circumspect view of Correa, the Astros positive may use him; they’re presently out three-quarters of their Opening Day infield. Paredes simply went on the IL with a season-ending hamstring pressure. Jeremy Peña’s breakout season has been interrupted by a damaged rib suffered in late June, although he simply began a rehab project and must be again at shortstop in Houston quickly. And Brendan Rodgers hasn’t been seen since he strained his indirect six weeks in the past.
Add to that the going-on-three-month absence of Yordan Alvarez and Houston would certainly welcome one other energy bat to the lineup. Two, in actual fact, if you happen to depend Sánchez.
Bringing again Correa feels opportunistic, half nostalgia journey and half “if we rub our fortunate magic beans collectively perhaps he’ll play 140 video games a yr and hit .300 once more.” The Sánchez commerce fills a extra exact want.
Prior to now 100 years, there have been 27 gamers within the AL and/or NL who primarily performed the outfield, batted right-handed, and threw left-handed. Rickey Henderson is essentially the most well-known by an enormous margin, however this can be a unusual sufficient phenomenon that you simply in all probability bear in mind Ryan Ludwick or Cody Ross or Guillermo Heredia as oddities.
There are solely two such gamers within the league immediately: Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers, they usually’re each Astros, they usually’ve been sharing an outfield for the previous 5 years.
I’ve by no means understood this. It’s like having two pet narwhals or two AMC Gremlins, so you may all the time have one to drive when the opposite breaks down. Really, that’s precisely what the Astros are doing; Meyers is on the IL with a calf pressure, whereas McCormick is chugging alongside because the quick half of a middle discipline platoon. Not that he’s hitting; McCormick has a 64 wRC+ because the begin of 2024.
I discover it onerous to get labored up about Sánchez usually; the occasional bonkers exit velo however, he’s a mean participant total. However let’s take a look at his platoon splits, in addition to the platoon splits of the opposite guys who’re on the Astros roster and may play outfield.
Guys Who Can Play Outfield for the Astros
Not that you simply’d need to platoon a high prospect like Smith, who’s creating for tomorrow whereas enjoying immediately, however Sánchez fills Houston’s want for an outfielder with pop who can truly threaten right-handed pitchers. And he’s a strong nook outfield defender who has expertise standing in middle (Is he good there? Don’t fear about it!), which supplies the staff much more platoon flexibility.
Lastly, as we’re seeing rental bats and relievers get shuttled throughout the map, Sánchez has two arbitration years left after this one. Which performs into how the Marlins are getting three guys for him.
Gusto has made 14 begins and 10 reduction appearances for the Astros this yr. (Wow, the Astros actually have had a variety of accidents this yr, haven’t they?) The 26-year-old rookie with common fastball velocity has thrown seven completely different pitch sorts. He has a 4.92 ERA, which isn’t nice, even in a house park the place dingers come low cost, however he’s working a .331 opponent BABIP and doesn’t stroll that many guys, so his FIP is down at 4.11.
Primarily, FIP thinks he’s a mean pitcher, moderately than a replacement-level one. He’s heading to a house park on the opposite finish of the spectrum, so we’ll see what occurs.
Valencia is a 19-year-old outfielder who has a promising swing however poor outcomes — and by “outcomes” I imply chase charges and speak to charges that merely won’t work for a 5-foot-10 man with below-average velocity and energy. The sensible best-case situation is a hit-over-power nook outfielder, however there’s a lot runway for a participant this younger (he solely graduated off the advanced this yr) that I wouldn’t surrender on him simply but.
Jaworsky was an over-slot day two decide in 2023, a nailed-on future shortstop (or at the least shortstop-capable utilityman) whom the Astros have been hoping would fill out and hit properly sufficient to get his legs and glove to the massive leagues. These hopes are, as but, unfulfilled. Jaworsky is presently in Excessive-A, the place he’s placing out 21.6% of the time and slugging .359. Which appears suspiciously like he’s getting the bat knocked out of his fingers and swinging and lacking, which is a foul mixture.
It’s not a terrific return, however Sánchez — a man with huge platoon points who’s about to get costly in arbitration — is a lot extra worthwhile to the Astros than he’s to the Marlins.
Funds however, it’s far more than the Astros gave as much as get Correa again. I needed to go on to James Fegan, who wrote our Astros high prospect checklist, to get a report on Mikulski, as a result of he didn’t even make the unranked “Different Prospects of Notice” part.
The Giants drafted Mikulski within the second spherical out of Fordham in 2021, when he was throwing within the higher 90s from the left aspect. His stuff has backed up significantly since then, resulting in his launch on the finish of spring coaching this yr. Even along with his sinking velo, Mikulski hides the ball properly sufficient to get huge whiffs along with his slider, however a violent supply with main head whack has left him with absolute rock-bottom command. I don’t need to pile on Mikulski — he didn’t do something however present up immediately — however he may be the least worthwhile participant within the Astros system who can nonetheless be billed as a prospect.
In different phrases, this can be a 26-year-old who’s strolling a batter an inning in his third season in Excessive-A. If the Twins can get one thing out of him, they should win this commerce.
As thrilling as these strikes are for the Astros, spare a thought for the Twins in all of this. Minnesota entered this season with an inexpensive hope of profitable the division, and whereas Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton survived deadline season, the Twins traded 11 huge leaguers within the 4 days main as much as the deadline. I’m hardly the one individual doing commerce protection at FanGraphs this week, and as I sit right here on Thursday night I have no idea for positive what number of Twins trades I’ve recapped prior to now 21 hours. I feel it’s three, nevertheless it may be extra.
On steadiness, it is smart to wage dump Correa. This all-in transfer hasn’t labored, and whereas I’m not board-certified in sports activities medication, I do know that huge guys with plantar fasciitis are likely to have bother working as they get additional into their 30s. Until the Astros hook up with Miracle Max, that is solely trending in a single route.
However buying and selling Correa, and getting lower than nothing again for him, would sting essentially the most if I have been a Twins fan. For a pair years, they have been enjoying within the deep finish of the free agent pool. That they had a bona fide free agent famous person to construct round. Now, after three and two-thirds seasons and only one journey to the playoffs, possession has determined to chop its losses on Correa earlier than his thirty first birthday.
A whole lot of the Twins’ different enterprise this week was painful however cheap: principally outgoing free brokers who have been unlikely to be re-signed. One of the best participant with any actual staff management remaining, Jhoan Duran, introduced again some critical freight. And these trades didn’t simply internet far-off prospects, they purchased low on proficient guys like James Outman and Taj Bradley. You may speak your self into issues turning round shortly.
However ditching Correa like this isn’t a baseball commerce. It’s an possession group of second-generation skinflints settling up with a nine-figure creditor in preparation for promoting the staff.
Sure, seeing Correa’s contract out in all probability would’ve been throwing good cash after dangerous. Sure, the Twins may discover higher methods to spend the $70.4 million they not owe him. However they simply admitted defeat on the most important free agent signing in franchise historical past. That’s a tough capsule to swallow, it doesn’t matter what the numbers say.