You may’ve been anxious that the Brewers had slept by the commerce deadline. Perhaps common supervisor Matt Arnold had overslept, or possibly the Twins have been hogging all of the cellphone bandwidth within the Midwest. However no, positive sufficient, Milwaukee obtained on the board proper on the final minute, first by sending Nestor Cortes to San Diego, after which by making an uncommon commerce for Arizona teammates Shelby Miller and Jordan Montgomery.
Wow, that’s a reliever with a sub-2.00 ERA and a man who pitched the Rangers to a championship two years in the past. For only a participant to be named later or money? Appears like a steal… wait, each of them are damage, and each of them are free brokers on the finish of this yr. That may’t be proper.
I suppose we’ll begin with Miller, the much less damage of the 2. Miller’s damage, a forearm pressure, has definitely portended ugly issues previously — it may be a precursor to a UCL tear — however after occurring the IL July 6, Miller has already thrown not less than one bullpen session. If he must exit on a rehab task, it would delay his Brewers debut some, however with Milwaukee’s playoff odds at present at 96.6%, that is an acquisition for October, not August.
You guys are most likely all sensible sufficient to determine by yourself what it means if Miller doesn’t get wholesome, so let’s consider the best-case situation.
Miller turns 35 on October 10; nevertheless few individuals on this nation hope to rejoice their birthday at work, slightly than at house with family and friends, Miller should be amongst them. However even after greater than a decade within the majors, a UCL substitute, and numerous different accidents, he can nonetheless throw 95 routinely, with above-average motion each vertically and horizontally.
Although he’s solely 6-foot-3, Miller has an excessive drop-and-drive supply that permits him greater than seven ft of extension. That’s baby’s play for brand spanking new teammate Jacob Misiorowski, however among the many greatest within the league by mortal requirements.
Miller has a sweeper that’s been efficient in restricted use towards righties, however his main secondary pitch is an upper-80s splitter that, just like the fastball, has excellent arm-side motion.
That fastball-splitter mixture has made Miller among the best bat-missers in any bullpen within the league: 97th percentile chase fee, 87th percentile whiff fee, 84th percentile strikeout fee. He has additionally posted above-average quality-of-contact numbers. He’s within the high quartile of the league for suppressing exit velocity and barrels.
The Brewer’s rotation is totally nasty, and can solely change into extra so after the deadline, as Robert Gasser is on his manner again from Tommy John surgical procedure.
The bullpen, much less so. There are particular person pitchers from this group whom I like quite a bit: Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill could be dominant in late and high-leverage conditions. Aaron Ashby is a groundball machine, and Nick Mears is a superbly advantageous center reliever.
However on the entire, the Brewers’ bullpen arrived on Deadline Day eleventh within the league in WAR and strikeout fee, and fifteenth in ERA-. That’s common, and common received’t minimize it in October, notably for a group with questions on its offense. And the opposite playoff groups with questions on their relievers are solely getting stronger. The Mets purchased three good rental relievers within the week earlier than the deadline. The Phillies signed David Robertson and made a huge commerce to get Jhoan Duran, to say nothing of Andrew Painter looming within the excessive minors as a possible 2008 David Worth.
The Brewers needed to do one thing. A wholesome Miller isn’t in the identical class as a number of the different guys who obtained moved this week, however he’s completely adequate to pitch high-leverage playoff innings for Milwaukee.
So what’s Montgomery doing on this commerce? Properly, amassing a $500,000 commerce bonus, for one factor, in accordance to Jon Heyman. Which is superior, in case you ask me. Montgomery’s tenure with Arizona goes to go down as an all-time free agent catastrophe for the Diamondbacks, but it surely’s downright aspirational for these of us who dream of constructing tens of millions of {dollars} with out having to return to work.
As a result of Montgomery isn’t going to be pitching. He simply obtained Tommy John in April, he’s a free agent on the finish of the yr, and since he obtained traded in the midst of the season, the Brewers can’t stick him with a qualifying provide. Not that they might; I’ve been within the tank for Montgomery since his freshman yr at South Carolina, however even I wouldn’t QO a pitcher who hasn’t began a sport in over a yr and posted a 6.23 ERA in his final full season.
There’s additionally no roster crunch in Arizona; the Diamondbacks simply traded six main leaguers, of whom 4 have been on the energetic roster, and acquired solely two gamers who went straight on the main league group. They’ve obtained extra 26- and 40-man roster spots than they know what to do with proper now. And even when they didn’t, Montgomery’s on the 60-day IL and due to this fact exempt from roster limits.
On condition that he’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgical procedure all yr, I’d be form of shocked if Montgomery even units foot in Wisconsin or will get issued a jersey quantity. However, the Brewers do have the chance to pitch themselves to him as a very good place to signal for 2026. Hey, Brandon Woodruff, possibly you may make a name and inform Monty how a lot you loved rehabbing your long-term shoulder damage right here. That kind of factor.
Perhaps, however I’m extra within the $5 million or so the Diamondbacks despatched to Milwaukee with these two injured pitchers.
That’s some huge cash, but it surely doesn’t cowl the remainder of Montgomery’s wage. The Brewers are dealing with about $2 million of the $7 million and alter nonetheless due Montgomery this yr. Miller solely makes $1 million this yr, and with two thirds of the season already gone, buying and selling him is barely saving the Diamondbacks about $320,000. By taking over Montgomery, Milwaukee can mainly write Arizona a test for $2 million, which might not have been allowed in any other case.
Close to as I can inform, there’s no luxurious tax goal served by this transaction. Arizona is miles wanting the cutoff after promoting this week. This $2 million is simply going straight into the financial institution.
And, look, we’ve all been there. Making an attempt to barter an acceptable prospect return for an injured Shelby Miller at 5:45 p.m. on Deadline Day is like choosing out a marriage reward the day of the ceremony. It’s simpler to put in writing a test generally. I get it. Nevertheless it’s a bit… ungallant to take handouts from one of many archetypal small market groups. That’s all.
Anyway: The Brewers get a high-leverage reliever, most likely, with out giving something up. The Diamondbacks save a couple of bucks. Montgomery makes out like a bandit. I adore it. I hope the Brewers make him a hoop in the event that they win the World Sequence.