Having simply added Gregory Soto to the bullpen, the Mets are at it once more. Lower than 90 minutes after his similar twin went to Pittsburgh within the Ke’Bryan Hayes commerce, Tyler Rogers can also be on the transfer.
Rogers, together with his 1.80 ERA and a pair of.59 FIP in 50 innings this yr for the Giants, has been among the finest reduction pitchers in baseball. Nonetheless, he’s 34, and a rental, and a significant departure from the hard-throwing Adonises the Mets may in any other case have pursued. And but, David Stearns noticed match to surrender Drew Gilbert, Blade Tidwell, and José Buttó — two big-name prospects and a man who’s been first rate within the majors this yr — for 2 months of a man who throws underhand. Possibly as much as three months, if the Mets make the playoffs and keep there for a pair rounds.
It’s not fairly that straightforward. Rogers is nice, relievers are costly now, and fame doesn’t at all times equal worth within the prospect world.
Rogers is essentially the most inimitable pitcher within the majors. This season, 489 pitchers have thrown at the very least 250 pitches. Rogers’ vertical launch level, 1.38 ft, is the bottom out of these pitchers by greater than 20 inches. The second-lowest arm angle within the league belongs to Tim Hill, who lets go of the ball greater than twice as removed from the bottom as Rogers does.
Rogers throws two pitches: The slowest sinker within the league (83.3 mph), and the slowest slider within the league. Brent Suter throws the second-slowest pitch in each classes, outracing Rogers’ slider by 4 ticks and his sinker by 5 and a half. Attempt to image somebody who throws 5 miles an hour slower than Brent Suter. And never, like, a toddler.
There’s a widget on Baseball Savant’s participant pages that reveals how a lot a participant’s numerous pitches transfer in two dimensions, each in absolute phrases and relative to comparable pitches. That relative motion determine isn’t the be-all, end-all — extra motion isn’t at all times higher, for one factor — however it’s a pleasant factor to have the ability to see at a look.
Right here’s a enjoyable factor I discovered at present: All of Rogers’ “vs. Comparable” motion numbers are clean. “Comparable pitches” embody choices of the identical sort, inside two miles an hour of velocity and 6 inches of extension, both approach. And easily put: Rogers throws so slowly that there’s no one to match him to.
The flip facet of this — actually, with Rogers’ -60 diploma arm angle — is that his slider strikes up, not down, relative to his sinker. An opponent who faces Rogers for one at-bat in a collection, a few times a yr, must recalibrate his timing for the slowest main fastball within the majors. Not solely that, he’ll need to take care of a launch level and motion profile he received’t see anyplace else within the league.
Making contact isn’t inconceivable, however good luck hitting it exhausting:
Rogers has the bottom EV90, the second-lowest barrel charge, and the best groundball charge amongst certified relievers this yr. Hitters don’t like ankle-high sinkers or pitches that come out of the grime and zoom in on their wrists.
It’s not simple to beat Rogers, however it may be accomplished. What he’s not going to do is beat himself. His stroll charge is 2.1% this yr, by far the most effective mark in baseball, and he’s solely allowed three dwelling runs in 2025. Identical to Soto’s left-handedness stuffed a necessity explicit to the Mets’ bullpen make-up, Rogers is an efficient add for a bullpen that — whereas proficient — tends to deal with the strike zone like a suggestion.
On the RosterResource depth chart for the Mets, the 4 relievers instantly following Rogers within the bullpen hierarchy are Ryne Stanek, Brooks Raley, Reed Garrett, and Soto. Soto has a stroll charge of 10.7%, making him the one a kind of 4 who’s beneath 11.0%. Nearer Edwin Díaz is barely at 9.5%, however throughout final yr’s playoffs, he appeared so drained he may barely see the plate, and he walked seven batters in his six postseason appearances. After touchdown Rogers, the Mets additionally added Cardinals nearer Ryan Helsley, whose 8.9% stroll charge appears positively frugal subsequent to his new teammates’, however he too was in double digits as not too long ago as 2023.
Once I was on Successfully Wild final week, I stated the worst option to lose a baseball sport is when a pitcher all of the sudden can’t discover the strike zone and offers up the sport with out his opponents having to do greater than stand there. In Rogers, the Mets have a high-leverage reliever with whom the percentages of that taking place are virtually zero. That was not the case this morning.
Now, on to these big-name prospects.
Gilbert and Tidwell are each merchandise of the much-heralded College of Tennessee pipeline. Gilbert, an outfielder, was a famous person in faculty and the exemplar of an all-gas-no-brakes-hair-on-fire model of play that made him each opposing fan’s least favourite participant. When he got here to the Mets within the Justin Verlander commerce of 2023, I used to be ecstatic, as a result of if he’d lived as much as his full potential in that market, he would’ve been a generationally gifted pest.
Tidwell, the Mets’ second-round decide in 2022, has prototypical mid-rotation starter physicality, velocity, and stuff. He can hit 99 mph and his title is Blade, for God’s sake, what extra would you like?
If informal followers know any Mets prospects, they most likely know Gilbert and Tidwell. However it’s usually the case that by the point prospects poke into the broader public consciousness, the shine has come off them a little bit.
Gilbert has handled nagging hamstring accidents since graduating to the professionals, however worse than that, the bat simply hasn’t been there. He doesn’t have the facility to do far more than punish errors, and even in his second go-around in Triple-A, he’s solely doing that sufficient to be a barely above-average hitter. He can run a little bit, and play heart discipline nicely sufficient to not embarrass himself, however this isn’t Jacob Younger or Victor Scott II. If Gilbert desires to play, he’s going to need to hit, and he simply hasn’t.
Tidwell, in the meantime, has a messy supply and problematic command. If he may find higher, the Mets wouldn’t be buying and selling him for Rogers, most likely as a result of Tidwell himself can be taking part in a outstanding position on their pitching workers now.
That is the final probability the Mets needed to offload Gilbert and Tidwell, not solely as a result of they won’t have a lot shine on them for very lengthy. The Mets are additionally operating into the type of roster crunch that troubles each good, wealthy staff. Tidwell made his main league debut in Might, which required him to be placed on the 40-man roster. Gilbert has to go on there this offseason, or he’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft.
As for Buttó, he’s out of minor league choices. I’ve little doubt that, if the Mets had their approach, they’d like to maintain Buttó within the group. He’s been a serviceable medium-leverage man this yr, and he appeared in six of the Mets’ 13 postseason video games in 2024. If the Giants make the playoffs (which continues to be not out of the realm of risk), I see no cause why Buttó wouldn’t pitch then as nicely.
However a no. 5 or no. 6 reliever who can’t be optioned is a troublesome factor to stay with. At that time within the bullpen, the flexibleness to maneuver a pitcher to and from the minors is value buying and selling a little bit high quality for.
Getting Gilbert, Tidwell, and Buttó for Rogers — a 34-year-old reliever who’s a free agent-to-be, it bears repeating — continues to be a effective pickup for the Giants. All three both might be helpful main leaguers, or already are. However the chances are that there’s not a superb beginning pitcher, or a high-leverage reliever, or an above-average beginning place participant, on this bundle, even when the title worth says in any other case.