I do know I used to be nervous a few sluggish commerce deadline; “prime 100 prospects by no means get traded on the deadline anymore” had turn out to be a modern cliché. Even earlier than the Padres dropped a depth cost on that notion on Thursday morning, the Blue Jays traded Khal Stephen, the no. 80 prospect in baseball, for a man who hasn’t thrown a pitch within the majors all season, and has solely made 4 begins previously two calendar years.
It’s Shane Bieber, so it is sensible, however nonetheless.
This would possibly come throughout as slightly naïve, however Bieber has been such a definitive participant for the Guardians, it’s going to be bizarre to see him in one other uniform. Possibly not for lengthy; we received used to Justin Verlander on the Astros fairly shortly. However Bieber stepped seamlessly into the post-2016 void and appeared to single-handedly drag Cleveland into rivalry 12 months after 12 months.
Bieber blew out his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgical procedure in April 2024, which difficult issues for the 2020 Cy Younger winner in his stroll 12 months. Come free company, he stayed placed on a one-year deal price $10 million, with a $16 million participant possibility for 2026.
Given the timing of Bieber’s surgical procedure, this 12 months — or at the very least most of this 12 months — was imagined to be a write-off. Had issues gone extra easily in Cleveland, the Guardians would have held on to Bieber and thought of him a serious midseason pickup. I imply, we simply realized that including a pitcher like Bieber on the deadline is price a prime 100 prospect, didn’t we?
Whereas Bieber has been idle for therefore lengthy, I wouldn’t fear an excessive amount of in regards to the elbow within the rapid future. Tommy John surgical procedure has a prolonged restoration interval, however it’s a reasonably easy process with little of the unpredictability of core or shoulder accidents. Extra to the purpose, Bieber has already made 4 minor league rehab begins. In his most up-to-date, on Tuesday for Double-A Akron, he threw 57 pitches over 4 innings, placing out seven whereas permitting three hits, no walks, and a single run on a solo residence run.
The Guardians’ plan was for Bieber to make at the very least yet another rehab begin, and Bieber will want additional gradual introduction earlier than he’s comfy throwing 100 pitches in a high-pressure sport, however all that could be a matter of when, not if.
Whereas I’m not involved in regards to the harm from Toronto’s perspective, I do need to flag two issues about Bieber that might give me pause.
The primary is that even when Bieber returns to his 2023 kind shortly, 2023 Bieber was not 2020 Bieber. Even earlier than his elbow gave out, Bieber’s common fastball velocity had dropped to the 91 mph vary from 94 in his Cy Younger season:
For those who suspected {that a} lack of velocity would possibly have an effect on Bieber’s total efficiency, you’d be appropriate. He was nonetheless a 4.8 WAR pitcher in 2022 with a mean fastball velocity of 91.5, due to his excessive quantity of labor, impeccable command, and a number of knockout breaking pitches. However the man who put up nearer numbers on a starter’s workload in 2020 hasn’t been there for some time:
Shane Bieber… in Decline?
| 12 months | Chase% | Contact% | Ok% | wOBA | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 33.3% | 70.4% | 30.2% | .280 | 3.28 |
| 2020 | 35.7% | 63.3% | 41.1% | .222 | 1.63 |
| 2021 | 31.8% | 66.2% | 33.1% | .294 | 3.17 |
| 2022 | 33.0% | 71.8% | 25.0% | .269 | 2.88 |
| 2023 | 29.7% | 77.1% | 20.1% | .307 | 3.80 |
With two years of relaxation and contemplation, who is aware of what Bieber’s repertoire will seem like when he comes again. However this could be extra of a Max Scherzer state of affairs for the Blue Jays than they’d hope.
The opposite difficulty is Bieber’s contract, and its participant possibility for 2026. If Bieber returns shortly and shoves for Toronto, particularly within the playoffs, he’s going to say no the choice and hit free company. The worth for pitching being what it’s, a wholesome and efficient Bieber would be capable to command way more than $16 million over one 12 months on the open market. To call one other ex-Guardians pitcher: Matthew Boyd made simply eight common season begins earlier than the Cubs gave him two years and $29 million this previous offseason. And Boyd was three years older than Bieber is now, with nothing like his observe document.
That might make Bieber a rental, and Stephen is a excessive worth to pay for that.
If Bieber stinks, or will get damage once more, he’ll undoubtedly activate the choice for 2026. By buying and selling for Bieber and Seranthony Domínguez, Toronto has additionally gone over the third luxurious tax threshold for this 12 months. And Bieber’s possibility brings Toronto’s complete tax legal responsibility for 2026 to inside a rounding error of $200 million. That’s earlier than they exchange Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, and Bo Bichette, all of whom are free brokers at 12 months’s finish.
Not that Toronto’s faceless company conglomerate house owners must be sweating pennies, or no matter cash they dissipate there, however it’s price noting.
What, then, did Toronto give as much as get Bieber?
They’re promoting excessive on Stephen. Few prospects, if any, have performed extra to advance their repute previously few months than this 2024 second-round select of Mississippi State. At the beginning of the season, Eric Longenhagen had him ranked seventeenth in Toronto’s system with a 40 FV grade. 4 months later, Stephen is a 50 FV and the Eightieth-ranked prospect within the sport.
Within the intervening months — simply 17 begins and one aid look — Stephen blitzed via each ranges of A-ball and lately made his debut at Double-A. The easy indisputable fact that he’s transferring that shortly is an effective signal for a pitcher who was 22 earlier than he threw his first skilled pitch.
There’s nothing significantly explosive about Stephen’s sport. There’s no triple-digit velocity, no unprecedented sinker motion, no hailstone of a curveball. However he’s athletic, he’s received superb command, he by no means walks anybody, and he can find all three of his pitches — a four-seamer, slider, and changeup. That’s actually all it’s good to succeed as a 3rd or fourth starter within the majors.
The subsequent step for Stephen, the bounce to Double-A, is a weed-out part. The Guardians will bash him towards high-minors competitors till they know what they’ve received, and go from there. It’s doable that the Blue Jays traded Stephen on the absolute good time. Or, the Guardians would possibly be capable to coax one other stage from a sophisticated school pitching prospect. In spite of everything, that’s what they did to Bieber.
So whereas it’s actually true that this can be a prime 100 prospect being traded for a former Cy Younger winner straight up, there’s a good bit of uncertainty in each instructions. If I had to attract a conclusion now, I’d say that Cleveland did properly to get a prospect like Stephen out of this deal. The Jays, then again, can abdomen the chance of Stephen making them look silly in three years.
This can be a commerce for now, for a crew that’s chasing its first division title in virtually 10 years and has suffered quite a few irritating false begins within the meantime. They will afford to pay slightly further.