Betting markets recommend the upcoming 2025-26 males’s school basketball season could end with a first-time nationwide champion being topped for the primary time in almost a decade. Up to date odds forward of the beginning of August — and with most rosters set throughout the nation — give Purdue (+900) and Houston (+1000) the perfect and second-best odds to take the crown subsequent spring in Indy, which might make them the first first-time champ (say that 5 instances quick!) since Virginia in 2019 and simply the fifth first-time champ for the reason that flip of the century.
Purdue’s rise to frontrunner standing is a brand new growth after opening at +1400 in April — tied for the third-best odds with Louisville behind Duke (then +1000) and Houston (+1200). Houston’s odds have improved however stay second-best, whereas Duke’s odds have dropped to third-best and now sit at +1100.
Up to date odds are on the backside of the web page and courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Here is a have a look at the present panorama and my takeaways of the betting panorama, how we received right here, the place the worth lies and a few longer photographs that could be value peeping.
Why Purdue is the betting favourite
Earlier-than-expected NCAA Match exits from Purdue in 2023 (as a No. 1 seed to a No. 16 seed), within the 2022 first spherical (as a No. 3 seed to a No. 15 seed within the Candy 16) and 2021 (as a No. 4 seed to a No. 13 seed within the first spherical) proceed to hover over the notion of this program’s final ceiling. However that skepticism not displays actuality underneath coach Matt Painter. They had been nationwide runner-up in 2024 and misplaced to the eventual nationwide runner-up by two factors final season in a gutting Candy 16 loss. They’re trending up.
Optimism is rampant in West Lafayette not solely due to that proverbial tourney monkey is not on Purdue’s again, however as a result of the band is basically again in place to run it again. They’ve two All-American candidates returning this season in Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn, an instant-impact switch in Oscar Cluff, a finally-healthy Daniel Jacobsen and key cogs like Fletcher Loyer and C.J. Cox returning, too.
All informed, the workforce’s prime 4 scorers, prime two rebounders and 4 leaders in assists are all in place as established vets on this workforce. Add in Jacobsen — a 7-foot-4 sophomore brimming with potential — and you’ve got a workforce that has dimension, scoring and depth throughout a number of positions.
Duke trending downward, marginally
From +1000 to +1100 is hardly a distinction within the betting markets from the time it opened in April to now. But it surely has taken Duke from the favourite to the third-best odds behind Purdue and Houston.
Loads has transpired since then — together with Cedric Coward’s dedication and subsequent decommitment to pursue the NBA, Isaiah Evans‘ return and the addition of Dame Sarr — however Duke has slid into potential worth territory because the third workforce on the betting board.
Duke has 5 gamers I venture as first-rounders for the 2026 draft, and that sometimes correlates with success. Having No. 3 recruit and projected No. 1 decide Cameron Boozer helps, after all. I am fairly into Duke right here on the value. I believe there is a non-zero probability Duke has the perfect participant in school basketball subsequent season and cruises to 30+ wins with ease.
Kentucky odds enhance, Calipari’s odds decline
Within the final three months, Kentucky has risen from +1800 to +1700 odds — whereas its former coach, John Calipari, who now coaches at Arkansas, has seen his workforce’s odds drop from +2000 to +3000.
Kentucky’s odds are tied for the fourth-best together with Florida and UConn and point out a possible second-year breakout for coach Mark Pope. UK brings again star guard Otega Oweh and has a star-studded record of incoming transfers led by Jayden Quintance to assist anchor lofty expectations.
Arkansas misplaced Boogie Fland to Florida within the switch portal however has largely had a implausible offseason in any other case, which makes that +3000 quantity fairly tasty. Calipari is enrolling two five-stars in Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas, and the Razorbacks are additionally including FSU standout Malique Ewin and South Carolina large man Nick Pringle to bolster the workforce’s frontcourt.
The return of D.J. Wagner and Billy Richmond III additionally give the workforce some stability round which to construct.
Finest contender worth: Houston
By my rely there are six groups I would place within the “contender” bucket proper now who I believe can realistically win all of it. Houston can be No. 1 on that record. I believe at +1000 they’re a screaming worth because the second workforce on the betting board. They’re a nasty break free from getting into the season as reigning nationwide champions, and coach Kelvin Sampson brings again Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp and Joseph Tugler from a workforce that final season gained 35 video games. Oh, and: Chris Cenac Jr. — the highest-rated signee in class historical past — can be becoming a member of the fold.
Even in a deep Large 12, the Cougars are the category of the convention in their very own tier. They’re my preseason No. 1 and are my early decide to win all of it.
Worst contender worth: St. John’s
Do I believe St. John’s can win the nationwide championship subsequent season? Sure.
Would I wager on it taking place? Not on the present value. FanDuel’s odds for the Johnnies are at the moment +1900. That is down from the preliminary opening odds of +1800 however nonetheless too wealthy for me. I would want to wager Louisville (+2000), Kansas (+2000) and even Auburn (+2500) over St. John’s at present worth.
Coach Rick Pitino is coming off an historic 31-5 season that led to a second-round loss to Arkansas within the NCAA Match for a workforce that was hamstrung by offensive incapabilities. He has already mentioned publicly that capturing — which was an issue — is not going to be one this season. But it surely’s laborious to think about it improves drastically from its standing final season, and it’s equally laborious to examine a path to related dominance defensively. This can be a workforce that ought to have +2500 or +3000 odds on paper. St. John’s is an effective workforce, however not a terrific one as it’s at the moment priced.
Finest longshot: Oregon
Everybody has totally different standards for what longshot means. I outlined it as groups with +6000 odds or longer.
Utilizing that standards, Oregon for me is the workforce that screams off the web page. Coach Dana Altman in some way coaxed Nate Bittle into returning over staying within the NBA Draft in one thing of a shock. And his return is considered one of a number of significant ones, which additionally consists of Jackson Shelstad, Kwame Evans Jr. and Jamari Phillips.
The Geese are additionally bringing in former top-25 recruit Sean Stewart, sharpshooter TK Simpkins and Devon Pryor from the portal.
There may be sufficient mixed returning and new items right here to assume this workforce makes a leap from good (center of the pack within the Large Ten and 25 wins on the season) to superb (top-third Large Ten workforce and difficult for 30 wins and a title) that makes me consider +8000 is actual worth. This can be a borderline top-15 workforce on paper (Gary Parrish had them No. 17 in his newest Prime 25 (And 1) rankings in June) being priced outdoors the highest 25.