On any given pitch, a swing-and-miss is the absolute best consequence for the pitcher. The ball isn’t put in play, the rely advances in favor of the pitcher, and the batter could look a little bit silly within the course of. It stands to cause that pitchers who possess a number of pitches that run above-average whiff charges will doubtless have robust strikeout charges, too. Then there’s one other, a lot smaller group of pitchers who’ve a number of pitches with elite whiff charges. These uncommon hurlers will certainly have one of the best strikeout charges in baseball, proper? Amongst all beginning pitchers this season, there are simply eight who possess a number of pitches that generate a whiff greater than 40% of the time.
Pitchers With Swing-and-Miss Stuff
MacKenzie Gore leads the way in which with three of those elite bat-missing weapons, adopted by just a few of the sport’s finest strikeout artists. On the backside, although, are two pitchers whose strikeout charges are a lot decrease than you’d anticipate given their capacity to generate whiffs: groundball specialist José Soriano and rookie Cade Horton. (As an apart, Horton’s changeup has the third-highest whiff charge of any pitch thrown not less than 100 instances this 12 months, but his strikeout charge is an unimpressive 17.6%.)
What occurs when you decrease the brink to pitches with whiff charges north of 30%? There are 18 starters with three or extra of those less-effective-but-still-impressive pitches. Spoiler: Soriano exhibits up once more.
Pitchers With Swing-and-Miss Stuff
Right here we see a bunch extra of one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball. Soriano is joined by rookie Noah Cameron, the struggling Tanner Bibee, and the wily veteran Michael Wacha because the outliers. For essentially the most half, in case your pitch combine contains a number of pitches that may rack up huge whiff charges, you’re doubtless going to see a excessive strikeout charge to match. That makes Soriano a very evident outlier.
A month in the past, Michael Baumann investigated the curious case of the high-velocity pitchers on the Angels and their lower-than-expected strikeout charges. Jack Kochanowicz and Soriano have been featured in that article as examples of fellows with above-average velocity who simply couldn’t strike anybody out, however the latter truly has the bat-missing weapons that the previous doesn’t actually possess. That warrants some additional investigation.
The very first thing you need to learn about Soriano is that he’s main the majors in groundball charge by a reasonably hefty margin. His 67.6% groundball charge is six proportion factors larger than that of the following pitcher, Andre Pallante, and it’s up practically eight proportion factors from the place it was final 12 months. He only recently set a single-game document for groundballs induced. All of that is seemingly by design, as he has elevated the utilization of his sinker by a little bit greater than 4 proportion factors this 12 months, and it now makes up greater than half of his pitch combine.
“I really like throwing my sinkers as a result of they undergo the innings faster, with much less pitches,” Soriano stated in an April interview with Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. “I’d reasonably try this than have extra pitches and extra strikeouts.” He’s at the moment averaging 3.79 pitches per plate look, seventeenth amongst 59 certified starters. His method is to rapidly work via the lineup, producing tons of contact on the bottom together with his exhausting sinker, and turning to his secondary pitches as, effectively, secondary choices.
The simple reply is that batters merely don’t see sufficient pitches towards Soriano for him to have the ability to rack up huge strikeout totals; they put the ball in play earlier than they are often despatched again to the dugout on strikes. Slightly beneath 30% of all pitches within the majors have include two strikes, whereas simply 26.7% of Soriano’s pitches have are available such conditions. He isn’t giving himself sufficient alternatives run excessive strikeout totals.
However what occurs when Soriano does get to 2 strikes? Right here’s a take a look at his pitch combine with out two strikes and the way it modifications as soon as he will get there, in addition to an internet graph displaying his utilization in every rely.
José Soriano, Pitch Utilization
| Pitch Kind | Utilization Earlier than Two Strikes | Utilization With Two Strikes |
|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 56.8% | 33.5% |
| Curveball | 26.2% | 28.7% |
| 4-Seamer | 7.7% | 8.8% |
| Slider | 4.1% | 16.5% |
| Splitter | 5.2% | 12.5% |
As you’ll be able to see, Soriano closely favors his sinker early within the rely however begins to sprinkle in his slider and splitter with two strikes. The utilization of his three non-fastballs with two strikes provides as much as simply 57.7%, so even when the rely dictates making an attempt to get a swing-and-miss, he nonetheless depends on his exhausting stuff greater than 40% of the time.
Getting alternatives to make use of his secondary pitches is one factor, however is he utilizing them successfully when he does throw them? Right here’s a take a look at a few of his underlying plate self-discipline metrics by pitch kind.
José Soriano, Plate Self-discipline
| Pitch Kind | Zone% | Two-Strike Zone% | Swing% | Two-Strike Swing% | Whiff% | Two-Strike Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 57.7% | 52.6% | 49.3% | 65.7% | 17.3% | 16.5% |
| Curveball | 44.9% | 38.0% | 35.9% | 60.7% | 42.3% | 35.2% |
| 4-Seamer | 54.8% | 50.0% | 41.4% | 65.2% | 25.8% | 23.3% |
| Slider | 32.4% | 36.0% | 55.2% | 60.5% | 43.8% | 40.4% |
| Splitter | 24.5% | 15.4% | 43.9% | 38.5% | 35.5% | 32.0% |
The largest takeaway from that huge desk is that batters are swinging extra incessantly at every of his pitch sorts as soon as the rely reaches two strikes, however they’re whiffing on these swings much less usually than they do earlier within the rely.
It’s fairly straightforward to parse what’s occurring together with his splitter. He doesn’t throw it within the zone a lot, and he does so even much less with two strikes. A few of that could possibly be intentional, as pitchers sometimes use their splitters to get batters to chase, particularly with two strikes. Nevertheless it’s clear he struggles to command that pitch once you take a look at the place he’s lacking. A 3rd of his two-strike splitters find yourself in one of many easy-to-take areas that Statcast defines because the waste zone. He’s earned precisely one swing and one whiff on these wasted splitters.
It’s a little bit more durable to determine what’s occurring together with his curveball, which he throws extra usually than any of his non-fastballs and is extraordinarily efficient earlier than two strikes. Curiously, the Stuff+ grade on his curveball dropped to 73 this season, down from 104 in 2024. It’s exhausting to find out why the mannequin has soured on the pitch, contemplating opponents are performing worse towards it than they did final 12 months (.270 wOBA/.251 xwOBA in 2025; .300 wOBA/.262 xwOBA in 2024). Maybe the mannequin is selecting up one thing associated to how his curve interacts with the remainder of his arsenal.
Whenever you take a look at his launch level knowledge, his curveball stands proud from the remainder of his repertoire; its vertical launch level is 2 inches larger than his sinker, and the horizontal launch level has a three-inch distinction. The discharge angle on the curveball is about six levels larger than his sinker, too. These are fairly small variations, however they could possibly be sufficient for batters to detect as he’s throwing. The curve is nasty sufficient to generate an elite whiff charge by itself — its velocity is within the 93 percentile for the pitch kind and its horizontal break is effectively above common — however as batters bear down with two strikes, maybe that slight launch distinction is sufficient for them to be just a bit extra discerning.
Soriano clearly feels snug utilizing his sinker as an out pitch with two strikes, even when meaning fewer strikeouts. It looks like it’s an intentional method that values fast work and groundballs in play, reasonably than aggressively looking for whiffs. It’s necessary to notice that the Angels at the moment have the worst staff protection in baseball per OAA, with their infield rating twenty seventh in baseball by that very same metric. An method so closely targeted on permitting contact, irrespective of if it’s pounded into the bottom, looks like a poor determination given the protection that’s behind him. That’s an enormous cause why his BABIP allowed is .317 this 12 months and his ERA is almost half a run larger than his FIP.
I don’t assume merely throwing his secondary pitches extra usually will remedy all his issues both. He clearly has hassle finding his splitter, and his curveball has that launch level subject, which stems from his mechanics reasonably than his method. His slider looks like the one secondary pitch that maintains its effectiveness irrespective of when he throws it. I do assume that working to earn extra whiffs together with his breaking balls might be a greater method than counting on the poor protection behind him. Even with their points, his breaking balls nonetheless possess elite whiff charges, and it’s a disgrace he isn’t profiting from these weapons extra absolutely.