Nick Allen is certainly going to point out up on my FanGraphs Stroll-Off web page. I’ve checked in on him quite a bit over the past month, however of the 1,664 stats on his participant web page (sure, I counted all of them), I’ve actually solely been listening to one quantity. I simply need to know what number of plate appearances Allen has. The reply is 304, and that gained’t do.
A month in the past, I wrote about homerless qualifiers, the all-but-extinct subset of gamers who come to the plate typically sufficient to qualify for the batting title – a minimal of three.1 plate appearances per crew recreation, or 502 over a 162-game season – with out hitting even a single house run. On the time, Xavier Edwards was the one homerless qualifier left, however I didn’t imagine in him – which is to say that I did imagine he had the capability to hit a house run. He did simply that on July 12, blasting a 97.8-mph wall-scraper off Scott Blewett:
Allen was the participant I believed in. After I wrote my article, he was simply 13 plate appearances away from qualifying, and he was entrenched as Atlanta’s on a regular basis shortstop with half the season left. He appeared like a lock to qualify and, if potential, struck me as much more sure to keep away from hitting a house run. Within the ensuing weeks, he has lived as much as my not-particularly-wild expectations. He has began almost each recreation, and he has solely as soon as hit a ball even so far as the warning observe. Significantly, that is the closest he’s come to homering over the previous month:
Right here’s the place issues get difficult. It’s one month and 23 video games later, and Allen remains to be 10 plate appearances from qualifying. How is it potential that he’s shaved simply three plate appearances from his deficit over that point?
Allen is bumping up towards the identical drawback as many would-be homerless qualifiers who ended up spitting the bit. With a 60 wRC+, he’s the second-worst on a regular basis hitter on the crew (in addition to the second-worst non-Rockie with at the least 300 plate appearances). He’s batting ninth each day, and he’s bleeding plate appearances within the late innings. The day after my article got here out, the Braves pinch-hit for Allen within the ninth inning. They pinch-hit for him once more 4 video games later, then one recreation after that, and 4 video games after that, and one recreation after that, and three video games after that — you get the image right here. Compounding the issue, the Braves are now not a powerhouse offense, so that they’re not turning their lineup over like they used to. Their 98 wRC+ ranks rank 18th, whereas their 3,839 plate appearances rank nineteenth.
Allen has solely come to the plate 5 instances in a recreation twice all season. It hasn’t occurred since Could. He’s averaging 3.3 plate appearances per recreation, and three.2 since my article got here out. Each numbers can be sufficient to qualify if Allen had began out because the on a regular basis shortstop, however Orlando Arcia received 9 begins early on. It’s not fairly Achilles and the tortoise, however that late begin has been sufficient to maintain Allen on the razor’s edge all season:
On Could 18, Allen received the hole all the way down to eight plate appearances. He was proper there, though that additionally occurred to be proper across the time that his hitting fully bottomed out. On April 14, his wRC+ over the previous 15 video games was a pleasant, spherical 20, however the Braves didn’t have any higher choices. Then on Could 29, a doubleheader set Allen approach again. He received a uncommon relaxation within the first recreation, and within the second, he swung at an inside pitch that managed to hit him on the knuckles of his proper hand:
The damage turned out to be minor. Allen solely missed two begins, and the truth that the Braves needed to begin Luke Williams – who will not be a shortstop – in his place emphasised simply how a lot of a lock he had on the place. However unexpectedly, he had simply two plate appearances over 4 video games and he’d dropped to 19 plate appearances away from qualifying. He’s been chiseling away over that whole ever since, however slowly. If he retains up the tempo he’s run since June 4, the date that his deficit ballooned to 19 plate appearances, then he would qualify on September 2, after recreation 139. That leaves him very, little or no margin for error. If he suffers one other minor damage, if the Braves determine that they do imagine in giving a participant a break day a couple of times a month, in the event that they determine to provide Luke Waddell a glance as a result of he’s working a 117 wRC+ in Triple-A Gwinnett, if Allen’s spot simply occurs to come back up extra typically in these massive, late-game conditions that scream for a pinch-hitter, then he gained’t qualify. It’s a tough enterprise.
Selecting 502 plate appearances, 3.1 per crew recreation, as a way to qualify is completely affordable normal. However we also needs to take a second to notice that it’s arbitrary, and it’s arguably much less truthful than it initially seems. Baseball is a recreation wherein everyone takes turns, however these turns aren’t distributed equally. Any person has to bat first and someone has to bat final. No one’s arguing that it’s time to overthrow the purported meritocracy of the batting order – at the least not at present – however I believe we underestimate simply how massive an impact it has.
To date this season, batters have taken 2,710 extra plate appearances from the leadoff spot than from the ninth. Based mostly on these numbers, in the event you by no means missed a recreation and by no means received pinch-hit for, you’d common 4.6 plate appearances as a leadoff hitter and simply 3.7 from the 9 gap. That’s a distinction of 0.88 plate appearances, and it leaves these batting ninth in a precarious spot. It means they should play 135 video games as a way to qualify for the batting title, 26 greater than the 109 required for a leadoff hitter. That’s a sixth of a season! They’re taking part in that sixth of a season, however they’re simply not getting credit score for it.
And that’s earlier than we think about the truth that the fellows hitting ninth are down there for a motive. The league as a complete has a 79 wRC+ from the 9 spot this season (a mark that it’s a must to think about Allen would at the least momentarily think about committing homicide to acquire for himself). That causes gamers who begin the sport ninth within the order to lose much more plate appearances in favor of pinch-hitters, making all these gaps much more excessive.
Hitting could also be crucial a part of the sport, nevertheless it’s not the one half. Allen is within the recreation nearly solely due to his glove, which makes him a league-average participant regardless of his batting line. However protection doesn’t think about right here. Utilizing the identical averages and the identical assumptions, the 9 gap hitter must play 232 extra defensive innings than the leadoff hitter as a way to qualify. Actually, the leadoff hitter would solely should play 981 defensive innings, which implies they might qualify for the batting title, however not a Gold Glove.
I’m not saying any of that is essentially an issue. Qualifying for the batting title isn’t a badge of honor in the identical approach that making 30 begins is for a pitcher. Apart from, most gamers who discover themselves on the bubble are, like Allen, in no hazard of really difficult for a batting title. However that doesn’t imply they shouldn’t get extra plate appearances. Allen is working a 65 wRC+ whereas batting ninth, whereas the remainder of the Braves hitters are at 48. All that pinch-hitting doesn’t appear to be paying off. Possibly it’s as a result of groups are bringing of their greatest arms in these high-leverage conditions, however perhaps it means the Braves simply have to let their second-worst hitter cook dinner.