The deafening quiet of this 12 months’s July commerce market was disturbed on Thursday evening with the announcement that the Seattle Mariners have been buying first baseman Josh Naylor from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Naylor has supplied greater than respectable offense for the Snakes this 12 months, hitting .292/.360/.447 with 11 homers, good for a 123 wRC+ and 1.4 WAR. Heading to the desert in return are two minor league pitchers, lefty Brandyn Garcia and righty Ashton Izzi.
Whereas the Diamondbacks have typically disillusioned in 2025, little of the fault will be positioned at Naylor’s ft. The workforce anticipated to compete in 2025, however misplaced Christian Walker to the Astros in free company, so the hope was that Naylor would fill the outlet for a 12 months earlier than hitting the open market himself. He was by no means going to be an elite defensive first baseman like Walker, however the expectation was that he would at the very least present the same degree of offense. Naylor is more likely to fall effectively in need of his career-high 31 homers from 2024, however he’s compensated for that by including practically 50 factors of batting common, that means his 123 wRC+ is definitely barely larger than his 119 mark from final season.
If the season ended in the present day, the Mariners would make the playoffs because the second AL Wild Card, and the five-game separation between them and the division-leading Astros just isn’t an insurmountable distance. Houston’s edge within the AL West appears even smaller when you think about how a lot of its lineup is at the moment out harm. The injured quartet of Yordan Alvarez, Isaac Paredes, Jeremy Peña, and Jake Meyers would symbolize an enormous chunk of any workforce’s offensive worth. First base has been a selected supply of bother for the M’s this 12 months, with their first basemen rating within the backside third in baseball with a mixed 0.4 WAR. The unique plan had been for Luke Raley to get the lion’s share of the enjoying time at first, largely towards righties, with fill-ins round him to maintain the southpaws. Nevertheless, accidents to Mitch Haniger and Victor Robles thinned out Seattle’s nook outfield and DH depth and pushed Raley largely to proper area. In consequence, the workforce was pressured to provide loads of enjoying time to Rowdy Tellez; he posted an execrable .249 on-base proportion with the Mariners earlier than they dropped him in June.
Naylor just isn’t a celebrity, so naturally, his acquisition doesn’t dramatically change the face of the AL West race. After final evening’s win over the Angels, ZiPS gave the Mariners a 76% likelihood to make the playoffs and a 24% chance to win the division. These numbers can be 72% and 21% with out the commerce.
So, what’s the associated fee for his or her new first baseman? Neither Garcia, nor Izzi was torching up the prospect lists, however then once more, Naylor is a free agent after the season, making this commerce is a pure short-term rental. The 25-year-old Garcia has already made a short main league debut, and since I don’t consider the Diamondbacks are going to go full rebuild, that has loads of attract over the compensation draft choose they might have gotten in the event that they’d held onto Naylor and he’d signed elsewhere this offseason. Garcia is a hard-throwing lefty sinkerballer with a three-quarters supply who predictably induces loads of grounders. My colleague Eric Longenhagen gave him a 40+ FV when Seattle’s prime prospects checklist was revealed final month.
The ZiPS projections see Garcia as a strong, although unspectacular, mid-bullpen arm with at the very least some upside.
ZiPS Projection – Brandyn Garcia
| Yr | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 3 | 4.22 | 57 | 0 | 53.3 | 48 | 25 | 5 | 22 | 45 | 98 | 0.0 |
| 2027 | 3 | 3 | 4.10 | 56 | 0 | 52.7 | 47 | 24 | 5 | 21 | 45 | 101 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 3 | 2 | 4.08 | 55 | 0 | 53.0 | 46 | 24 | 4 | 21 | 45 | 102 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 3 | 2 | 3.92 | 46 | 0 | 43.7 | 39 | 19 | 4 | 17 | 37 | 106 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 2 | 2 | 4.06 | 40 | 0 | 37.7 | 33 | 17 | 3 | 15 | 32 | 102 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 2 | 1 | 4.06 | 33 | 0 | 31.0 | 27 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 102 | 0.1 |
ZiPS 2026 Percentiles – Brandyn Garcia
| Percentile | ERA+ | ERA | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 128 | 3.23 | 0.7 |
| 90% | 122 | 3.40 | 0.6 |
| 80% | 114 | 3.65 | 0.4 |
| 70% | 107 | 3.88 | 0.2 |
| 60% | 102 | 4.06 | 0.2 |
| 50% | 98 | 4.22 | 0.0 |
| 40% | 93 | 4.43 | -0.1 |
| 30% | 90 | 4.59 | -0.2 |
| 20% | 86 | 4.83 | -0.3 |
| 10% | 77 | 5.36 | -0.6 |
| 5% | 71 | 5.82 | -0.9 |
As a 21-year-old in Excessive-A ball, Ashton Izzi has extra growing to do than Garcia, however even with decidedly combined outcomes, the righty confirmed sufficient upside for Eric to additionally give him a 40+ FV. In line with Eric, Izzi boasts a four-seamer that sits round 94 mph with strong motion. He will get “close to elite” extension along with his fastball, but it surely doesn’t generate many whiffs. Izzi additionally has a usefully common two-seamer, Eric says, in addition to a sweeper and a cutter; the sweeper is a giant swing-and-miss pitch for him. His changeup is mediocre, and Eric is anxious that Izzi will wrestle to develop a great weapon to wield towards lefties. General, per Eric, if Izzi can clear his developmental hurdles, he could make the majors as a starter.
In all, I believe getting two actual prospects, one who can affect the dad or mum membership instantly, is a fully honest return for Naylor. The Mariners have solely two playoff wins during the last twenty years, and now’s the time to go all-in so as to add to that complete. Their offense is healthier this season than in earlier years, however they nonetheless wanted to fill their gap at first base, and Naylor represents a significant improve over what they’d earlier than.