The midseason is an efficient level to make amends for one’s errors, to see the place actuality has crushed your predictions. We’re practically half a 12 months from the latest iteration of the ZiPS Prime 100 Prospects, and with a flurry of trades more likely to occur within the subsequent week, it appears to be time to examine in on how the algorithms which have seized my life and crushed all traces of humanity ZiPS projection system is doing within the prospnostications for 2025.
For every of the highest 100 prospects, I’m together with a chart of their 2025 minor league translations and the way their 2026-2030 WAR has modified since February. Final 12 months was my first midseason assessment of the prospect checklist, and a few of my charts simply made issues complicated, so I’m making them much less dense/opaque this time round, within the hopes of speaking the info higher. The translations and projections are by way of Monday’s video games. As a fast reminder, ZiPS ranks prospects by the typical of their Twentieth-percentile and Eightieth-percentile profession WAR projections, and explicitly leaves out gamers for which it has nothing to carry to the desk, so no highschool hitters or pitchers with out skilled expertise.
ZiPS Prime 100 Prospects – 1-25 Hitters
ZiPS is of course a bit down on Carson Williams given his struggles offensively this 12 months, however he nonetheless has the glove, and a 102 wRC+ in Triple-A for a wonderful defensive shortstop isn’t so unhealthy that it might ship him tumbling down the ranks. If February ZiPS had recognized in regards to the first half of the 2025 season, it might have had Roman Anthony hurdle over Williams, Roki Sasaki, and Samuel Basallo to be the no. 1 prospect in baseball. In contrast to Williams, Basallo has been superb, it’s simply that Anthony has been even higher.
Dylan Crews has continued to battle offensively within the majors, although to their credit score, the Nationals haven’t panicked about it. Nonetheless, it’s regarding that his contact charge has backslid significantly since his main league debut late final August. Bryce Eldridge continues to be very younger, however he hasn’t hit in any respect in Triple-A, so he’s far much less more likely to pressure his method onto the Giants’ roster this 12 months. ZiPS nonetheless likes Cole Younger, and that’s with out it seeing his huge walk-off hit within the eleventh a number of days in the past! Even so, it stays to be seen how a lot his protection really performs within the majors. Talking of massive hits, Kristian Campbell and Coby Mayo have their very own… however to their future projections as a substitute of on the plate. It’s not simply main league efficiency both; Mayo has solely a .201/.277/.374 translation within the minors this 12 months, and Campbell has really hit worse at Triple-A than he did within the majors since his demotion.
Matt Shaw and Jace Jung are two extra infielders who’ve been dealt decent-sized blows, although they haven’t fallen as a lot as Campbell or Mayo. Each will seemingly be high quality, however it’s truthful to downgrade them a bit. Jordan Lawlar is an enormous gainer not due to his poor main league debut (0-for-19), however just because he obtained onto the sphere after lacking a lot time final season.
ZiPS Prime 100 Prospects – 1-50 Pitchers
| Participant | Rank | ERA | IP | HR | BB | SO | FIP | 5-Yr WAR (Feb) | 5-Yr WAR (Now) | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roki Sasaki | 1 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 12.3 | 8.2 | -4.1 |
| Noah Schultz | 27 | 5.94 | 63.7 | 10 | 44 | 51 | 5.84 | 7.6 | 4.6 | -2.9 |
| Andrew Painter | 30 | 5.27 | 66.7 | 10 | 20 | 52 | 4.38 | 6.8 | 6.6 | -0.2 |
| Caden Dana | 37 | 5.50 | 52.3 | 8 | 26 | 43 | 5.04 | 8.1 | 5.2 | -3.0 |
| Bubba Chandler | 39 | 3.86 | 77.0 | 9 | 23 | 72 | 3.83 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 1.4 |
| Jackson Jobe | 40 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 6.8 | 6.6 | -0.2 |
| Carson Whisenhunt | 46 | 4.50 | 94.0 | 12 | 25 | 62 | 4.26 | 8.5 | 7.3 | -1.2 |
| Tink Therefore | 49 | 5.09 | 17.7 | 2 | 12 | 16 | 4.96 | 8.3 | 6.6 | -1.6 |
| Jarlin Susana | 50 | 5.67 | 27.0 | 3 | 23 | 26 | 5.50 | 7.3 | 7.1 | -0.1 |
This has been a fully brutal 12 months for the ZiPS high pitching prospects, and since there’s usually plenty of overlap between ZiPS lists and different high prospect lists, our projections right here might not be alone. Jackson Jobe has been within the majors all 12 months, however with a 5.13 FIP and 5 walks per 9 innings, ZiPS isn’t any extra enthusiastic about him than it was over the winter. Bubba Chandler is the one actual winner within the group this 12 months, and would now seemingly be the second-best ZiPS pitching prospect. Chase Burns didn’t get a projection coming into the season, however with a translated 3.16 FIP from his 13 minor league begins, he’d be method up there within the ranks, no less than till he stopped qualifying as a prospect in some unspecified time in the future over the following few weeks.
ZiPS Prime 100 Prospects – 26-50 Hitters
Jacob Wilson is the most important gainer within the subsequent tranche of hitters. His mega-contact strategy on the plate has performed rather well within the majors, so his projections noticed an enormous improve as he graduated from prospect standing. ZiPS has been up and down with Jett Williams the previous few years, however it was decidedly down after he misplaced a vital season resulting from surgical procedure on his triangular fibrocartilage complicated, which is both a part of the wrist or some form of constructing. (I’m guessing wrist.) That mentioned, hitting .291/.399/.495 as a 21-year-old shortstop within the excessive minors is a good way to get a bandwagon going once more. Kevin McGonigle has been sensible within the minors, although it simply stays to be seen how he’ll fare at Double-A.
Earlier than the season, ZiPS thought Brayden Taylor would possibly hit simply effectively sufficient to help what it noticed as a improbable glove. As an alternative, he’s been one of many worst offensive gamers in 2025 for anybody who may remotely be known as a prospect, and reality is, I’m not even positive why he’s struggling. Fortunately, that’s extra of a Rays downside than a me downside! Taylor’s tumble is the most important drop for any prospect ZiPS projected final winter. ZiPS hoped for extra development from Thayron Liranzo, and Orelvis Martinez has been dreadful sufficient that I’m unsure he must even be thought of a Plan B for anybody in Toronto this 12 months. Dalton Dashing has taken successful right here, however that’s as a result of ZiPS is treating him as an outfielder now somewhat than a catcher.
ZiPS Prime 100 Prospects – 51-75 Hitters
There aren’t any huge gainers within the 51-75 group, although Moisés Ballesteros comes closest. I’m no extra positive he’s really a catcher than I used to be six months in the past, however on condition that he retains crushing the ball each time he’s been promoted within the minors, he could not have to be adept on the instruments of ignorance. I earned my particular Sammy Sosa card in MLB The Present 25 due to Ballesteros, and whereas neither he nor the Cubs get any profit out of that, it no less than makes me pleased.
Bryan Ramos was one of many gamers ZiPS was larger on than most a number of years in the past, and though it seemed for some time like which may pan out, he actually upset in 2024 and has not bounced again this 12 months. Assuming he nonetheless qualifies for the prospect lists subsequent winter, he might not be on the 2026 ZiPS Prime 100. Thomas Saggese had a pleasant OBP within the minors this 12 months, however ZiPS tends to frown upon minor league performances which might be disproportionately walk-heavy, and his cup of espresso this 12 months has been unimpressive.
ZiPS Prime 100 Prospects – 76-100 Hitters
Not lacking time from a concussion or again issues, in addition to having a second skilled season, has been an actual boon to Brice Matthews’ projections. It’s now trying like he stands out as the man who pushes Jose Altuve again to left for good. I poo-pooed the thought of the Yankees getting quite a bit in return for Spencer Jones on the deadline, however trying on the translations and the projections, I could be responsible of being short-sighted. He’s 24, not 28, in spite of everything, and he’s completely eviscerating minor league pitching. It’s getting more durable to dismiss the thought of him being an actual masher within the majors, which as an Orioles fan conditioned to not root for the Yankees, is a tough capsule to swallow.
Edwin Arroyo stays younger and missed all the 2024 season with a torn labrum, but although he’s been more healthy (however at present out with a sore hammy), he’s come again as a middling singles hitter, so ZiPS sees far much less upside than it did a number of years in the past. Enrique Bradfield Jr.’s uncooked line appears good, however the translation takes all of it the way in which all the way down to .211/.314/.301, and he’s already been on the IL twice with a hamstring damage. If he’s the successor of Cedric Mullins in middle discipline for the O’s, it’s trying much less like it will likely be a right away hand-off. ZiPS has actually soured on Jared Serna, who by some means has solely 5 extra-base hits in 284 plate appearances in Double-A this season after 15 extra-base hits in far fewer alternatives on the identical stage final 12 months.
ZiPS Prime 100 Prospects – 51-100 Pitchers
In 12 Triple-A begins this 12 months, Quinn Mathews has allowed nearly as many walks (44) as he’s thrown innings (44 1/3), hardly an auspicious signal for a pitching prospect. That is a type of uncommon conditions during which you’d hope that his sore shoulder has really been worse than marketed, simply to offer a clearer rationalization for what has been a brutal 12 months for him. I’ll give the Rockies credit score for giving Chase Dollander each alternative within the majors this 12 months, however it actually hasn’t labored out effectively, and Triple-A is the suitable place for him proper now.
However WAIT, there’s MORE! I’ve requested ZiPS for a desk of the most important improvers who didn’t make the ZiPS Prime 100 checklist in February.
Greatest Movers, Non ZiPS Prime 100
Jacob Reimer missed half of the 2024 season with a hamstring damage, however he’s been wholesome this go-around, and is all of a sudden hitting for energy. ZiPS was extremely skeptical earlier than the season that he might be above alternative stage, however it now thinks there’s an actual likelihood that he’ll develop into a starter within the majors in some unspecified time in the future. Choosing up Cam Smith within the Kyle Tucker commerce is trying like a superb transfer for the Astros. Kaelen Culpepper has been completely terrific in his first full skilled season, and I’d be shocked if he didn’t have a really excessive rating on subsequent 12 months’s prospects checklist. ZiPS thinks Brock Wilken has labored himself again into being the Brewers’ best choice at third base, or no less than, he could be if not for the dislocated patella that’s more likely to hold him on the shelf till this September on the earliest.