
This was presupposed to be the Diamondbacks’ yr. After sneaking into the playoffs in 2023 with simply 84 wins, then scoring upset after upset to achieve the World Sequence, they improved to 89 wins final yr, lacking out on October solely as a result of a tiebreaker. The near-miss stung, however the response — signing Corbin Burnes to move their rotation, and maintaining the remainder of their core intact en path to a membership document payroll ($197 million) — made sense. Sadly, issues haven’t panned out this season, and because the July 31 commerce deadline approaches, I consider the Diamondbacks can be finest served by promoting. (My colleague Michael Baumann feels in a different way, and can quickly make the case on why they need to method the deadline extra aggressively.)
Arizona isn’t a foul workforce. The Diamondbacks have gone simply 50-51, however they’ve outscored their opponents by 17 runs; they’re roughly two wins shy of their PythagenPat-projected document and three wins shy of their BaseRuns-projected data. However they’re additionally operating fourth within the NL West, 9 video games behind the Dodgers (59-42), and so they’re 5 1/2 video games out of the third NL Wild Card spot, presently occupied by the Padres (55-45), with the Giants, Cardinals, and Reds (all 52-49) between them. It’s not the space that’s working in opposition to them with 61 video games to play, it’s the visitors. With so many groups vying for playoff spots, the Diamondbacks have only a 14.9% likelihood of reaching the postseason — higher a minimum of than the Reds (10.8%) — however their odds of successful the World Sequence are all the way down to 0.7%. It’s powerful to examine them making a deep October run not solely with out Burnes, who underwent Tommy John surgical procedure in June, however with lesser variations of Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt, and Eduardo Rodriguez than they anticipated.
Whereas basic supervisor Mike Hazen may attempt to patch the Diamondbacks’ numerous holes within the rotation, bullpen, and outfield — they made my Substitute Stage Killers Checklist in each left discipline (primarily Lourdes Gurriel Jr.) and heart (Alek Thomas) — the workforce is exceptionally nicely set as much as promote. The Diamondbacks have 5 pending free brokers who determine to be of nice curiosity to different contenders, particularly first baseman Josh Naylor, third baseman Eugenio Suárez, righties Gallen and Merrill Kelly, and nearer Shelby Miller. All however Gallen are performing nicely, although Miller is presently on the injured listing as a result of a forearm pressure (extra on which beneath). In addition they have a couple of different gamers with numerous flavors of contract choices for 2026 who aren’t performing nicely however may function complementary items:
Arizona’s Commerce Bait
Participant | Age | WAR | Related Stats | 2025 Wage |
---|---|---|---|---|
Eugenio Suárez | 34 | 3.4 | .257/.328/.605, 36 HR, 153 wRC+ | $15 million |
Merrill Kelly | 36 | 2.2 | 3.32 ERA, 122 IP, 24.2 Okay% | $7 million |
Josh Naylor | 28 | 1.5 | .293/.362/.452, 11 HR, 125 wRC+ | $10.9 million |
Shelby Miller* | 34 | 0.6 | 1.98 ERA, 35 1/3 IP, 10 SV, .186 opp. AVG | $1 million |
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 31 | 0.5 | .246/.293/.410, 12 HR, 93 wRC+ | $14 million |
Zac Gallen | 30 | 0.0 | 5.58 ERA, 4.86 FIP, 121 IP, 13.4 Okay-BB% | $13.5 million |
Randal Grichuk | 33 | -0.1 | .235/.274/.452 | $5 million |
Kendall Graveman | 34 | -0.1 | 7.15 ERA, 8.69 FIP, 11 1/3 IP | $1.35 million |
*At the moment injured
Different notes: Gurriel is signed for $13 million in 2026, with the power to choose out after this season and a $14 million membership choice for 2027. Graveman and Grichuk every have $5 million mutual choices for 2026
By opening for enterprise, the Diamondbacks will place themselves on the heart of the motion as July 31 approaches, permitting Hazen to internet substantial returns that may assist restock the workforce’s roster and farm system. The aforementioned gamers are value a better look.
Except the Crimson Sox resolve to deal Alex Bregman or Jarren Duran — which appears unlikely given their latest surge right into a Wild Card place within the AL — Suárez ought to be the perfect bat out there on the deadline. The 34-year-old slugger is within the midst of a profession yr, rating second solely to Shohei Ohtani in slugging proportion, sixth in wRC+, and tied for tenth in WAR. The Brewers, Cubs, Mariners, Reds, Yankees are among the many contenders in want of a 3rd baseman, and he’d considerably beef up any of these lineups. He’s no stranger to both Cincinnati (the place he performed from 2015–21), or Seattle (2022–23); he clouted a career-high 49 homers in 2019 for the previous, and helped the latter break its epic playoff drought in ’22.
The primary caveat relating to Suárez is that his protection is nothing to write down dwelling about. Updating what I wrote in my protection of the weakest workforce defenses amongst contenders, his -5 DRS makes this the seventh season in a row he’s been beneath common by that metric; whereas Statcast values him extra extremely, his -4 FRV is 13 runs beneath his 2023 mark and 6 runs beneath final yr’s. Nonetheless, a change of surroundings may assist (shortstop Geraldo Perdomo has had a tough season as nicely), and his offense will greater than cowl for his shortcomings within the discipline.
Like Suárez, the 36-year-old Kelly is within the midst of certainly one of his finest seasons. He’s in a seven-way tie for the NL lead in begins (21), fifth in innings, twelfth in ERA (3.32), and 14th in FIP (3.48). With a mean four-seam fastball velocity of simply 92 mph, he’s not overpowering, however his secondary stuff has completely befuddled opponents. Batters have hit simply .176 and slugged .275 in opposition to his changeup this yr whereas whiffing on 34% of their swings on the pitch. They’ve hit simply .125 and slugged .278 in opposition to his cutter, and his slider has been very efficient whereas being solely used in opposition to righties (.100 AVG, .133 SLG, 30.3% whiff). His 24.2% strikeout charge and 16.6% strikeout-to-walk differential are each the second highest of his profession. It doesn’t damage that Kelly pitched very nicely throughout the 2023 postseason, placing up a 2.25 ERA in 24 innings over 4 begins, together with a seven-inning, one-run, nine-strikeout efficiency within the Diamondbacks’ solely World Sequence win in opposition to the Rangers.
As for the 28-year-old Naylor, after hitting 31 homers for the Guardians final season, he’s traded some energy for contact. He’s minimize his strikeout charge from 16.6% to 12.4%, whereas roughly replicating his common exit velocity and hard-hit charge from final yr; his barrel charge has dropped from 8.4% to six.7%, however he’s offset that by posting a career-high 20.5% pulled air charge, and his 125 wRC+ is simply two factors off his profession excessive, set in 2023. He’s even stolen a career-high 11 bases in 13 makes an attempt. He’d be an ideal match for the Mariners or Crimson Sox, however there’s no scarcity of groups that might use a left-handed influence bat, whether or not at first base (the place Naylor admittedly isn’t a risk to win a Gold Glove) or designated hitter.
Equally, Miller would match on quite a lot of rosters, although his destiny is up within the air at this writing. The 34-year-old righty has been across the block after which some, pitching for 9 groups, and fortunately his second stint with the Diamondbacks has gone a lot better than his first, throughout which he went 5-18 with a 6.35 ERA from 2016–18, lacking time as a result of Tommy John surgical procedure amid that mess. Transferring to the bullpen has suited him to the purpose that he’s leveled up. Counting on a two-pitch combine that features a four-seamer averaging a career-best 95.2 mph and a splitter that he launched in 2023, he’s posted a 1.98 ERA and profession bests in FIP (3.12), strikeout charge (28%) and strikeout-to-walk differential (20.3%) in 36 innings. He entered this season with simply three profession saves, however upon taking up the nearer function in Might, he has notched 10.
Alas, Miller landed on the injured listing with a flexor tendon pressure two weeks in the past. After getting a number of opinions from docs, he lately resumed throwing, and is scheduled to face dwell batters on Tuesday. Within the coming days, the Diamondbacks ought to have extra readability on whether or not he’ll have the ability to pitch once more this yr, and the way quickly. Clearly, any workforce that might think about buying him will scrutinize his medical file, however actually each contender is out there for reduction assist. If Miller can get the inexperienced gentle from the docs — even when he gained’t be out there instantly — his companies will probably be in demand.
Gallen provides query marks of a unique taste. He was the employees ace from 2022–24, producing 12.1 WAR through a 3.20 ERA and three.22 FIP whereas pitching a mean of 180.2 innings. He acquired Cy Younger votes in 2022 and ’23, and was an All-Star within the latter season. This yr, nonetheless, he’s been cuffed. Simply three of his final 13 begins have been high quality begins; over that span he has a 6.30 ERA and 5.31 FIP. Not nice, Bob.
Gallen’s strikeout charge has dropped from 25.1% to 22.2%, whereas his dwelling run charge has greater than doubled, from 0.79 per 9 to 1.71, and his barrel charge has shot from 7.4% to 12%. He’s misplaced slightly velocity, along with his common four-seamer dipping from from 93.7 mph to 93.3, and the pitch’s form has modified barely. It’s coming in from a barely decrease arm angle (42 levels, in comparison with 41 final yr), and getting a bit much less rise and a bit much less run, however batters are literally not doing as a lot with it as they did final yr. The actual situation is the decline of his knuckle curve; whereas his 42.9% whiff charge is greater than final yr, batters are hitting .229 and slugging .449 in opposition to it, up from a .148 AVG and .230 SLG. Each of our pitch modeling techniques see his stuff — which was by no means outstanding — as being within the midst of a multiyear decline, offset by distinctive command/location.
Gallen’s WAR is true at zero, however given the extent to which beginning pitching is at a premium — groups are even speaking about Sandy Alcantara regardless of his 7.14 ERA! — I believe he’ll nonetheless fetch a helpful return, if not one that may match Kelly. He’s a basic change-of-scenery candidate, in that one other workforce may need noticed one thing to tweak so as to assist him regain his type, and as a contact-oriented pitcher, he may use a greater protection behind him. Along with Suárez, I famous on Monday that a number of different Diamondbacks aren’t having good years with the glove, together with Perdomo (-6 DRS, -1 FRV), Gurriel (-6 DRS, -3 FRV), and Naylor (-4 DRS, -1 FRV), with the jury out on Thomas in heart discipline (-3 DRS, 3 FRV).
As for the three G’s (Grichuk, Gurriel, and Graveman), their performances have been subpar, however that doesn’t imply they gained’t get moved and given a shot at serving to one other contender. Hazen has reportedly gotten calls relating to their outfield depth, which incorporates not solely Gurriel, a 2023 All-Star, but in addition Grichuk, a basic bench righty who can play heart discipline (ish). The Diamondbacks may even entertain discussions relating to Thomas and Jake McCarthy, whose remaining membership management offers them some attraction even when they haven’t been on the prime of their video games.
If there appears to be lots of that going round on this roster, that’s a giant a part of the explanation they need to promote. I haven’t even talked about {that a} pair of regulars, catcher Gabriel Moreno and DH/first baseman Pavin Smith, are on the IL as a result of accidents, and key relievers A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez are each accomplished for the yr as a result of Tommy John surgical procedure. Moreno, who fractured his proper index finger on June 6, will probably be out till a minimum of mid-August. Smith, who strained an indirect on July 5, was lately cleared to take dry swings and is aiming for an early August return.
Not one of the aforementioned commerce candidates is making an enormous wage, so significantly for the “massive 5,” cash shouldn’t be an obstacle at commerce time; the Diamondbacks gained’t should eat a ton of wage so as to get a greater return. If these 5 are all traded, they determine to save lots of the Diamondbacks round $15-16 million in remaining 2025 wage.
For no matter offers they do make, the Diamondbacks are reportedly most focused on concentrating on younger pitching given the pending departures of Gallen and Kelly, and the struggles of nearly each different starter save for Ryne Nelson. Hazen’s not going to rebuild this roster in a single day, and this isn’t going to be painless; the Diamondbacks presently rank eighth within the NL in attendance (the very best they’ve ranked since 2004), up from twelfth in 2023 and tenth final yr, so a sell-off will price them momentum. However capturing lightning in a bottle with a .500-ish workforce once more, as they did in 2023, is very unlikely. Hazen ought to put up the “For Sale” signal and get busy on these telephones.