In a single sense, we’re midway via the season. In one other sense, although, we’re not — we’re 59.5% of the best way via the season, in case you rely up all of the video games performed. Regardless! There’s no baseball immediately, so what higher time to take inventory of the overall state of the game?
To that finish, I’ve recognized seven tendencies which have outlined the 2025 season so far. In no specific order:
Changeups are going wild
You could have heard sooner or later that this was the 12 months of the kick change. All via March and April, native and nationwide writers alike regaled the baseball studying viewers with tales of this legendary new pitch, destined to revolutionize pitching as we all know it.
So has it? Principally, no. By run worth and whiff fee, changeups are performing roughly in addition to they’ve over the previous few years. However the changeup itself is clearly altering.
To be honest, it’s unclear whether or not it’s particularly the expansion of the kick change that’s driving these numbers. However there’s no query that the changeup, as a pitch kind, is getting kickier. In 2021 — simply 4 seasons in the past — the typical changeup was thrown with seven inches of induced vertical break. That’s dropped all the best way to 4.4 inches this season, together with almost one inch extra drop from 2024 to 2025. That’s a staggering quantity of change contemplating these figures are aggregated on the league stage.
These depth-y changeups are defining a number of the extra notable pitcher campaigns. Merrill Kelly, Cristopher Sánchez, and Kris Bubic — to call three guys — are placing collectively profession years using their unfavorable induced vertical break changeups so far as they will take them.
4-seam fastballs are nonetheless going out of favor
A lot was made final season of the Pink Sox throwing the fewest four-seamers within the historical past of the game. Whereas they took it to the intense, Boston was merely the poster baby of a broader league-wide pattern — final season featured the fewest four-seamers of any season on file. The pondering behind fewer fastballs is fairly easy: A pitch that goes straight is simpler to hit than one which bends. Hitters, consequently, are likely to carry out higher on the pitch than they do in opposition to breaking balls, like sliders or curveballs, or offspeed pitches, like changeups and splitters.
On the time, Pink Sox pitching coach Andrew Bailey gave a quote about four-seamers that circulated extensively among the many pitching web.
“We communicate rather a lot concerning the fastball usually being a jab and equating that to boxing,” Bailey advised Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic. “Should you’re going 12 rounds or eight rounds, you’re not going to win by throwing jabs the entire time. The harm is finished by throwing your haymakers in your finest sequences. Jabs must be situated supremely to do any harm.”
In 2025, the “fastball as jab” philosophy appears to be more true than ever. Pitchers are throwing even fewer four-seamers in 2025 than they did in 2024. In all probability not coincidentally, the pitch stays as efficient because it’s ever been, at the very least by Statcast’s context-neutral run worth statistic. Final season was the primary time within the Statcast period that four-seamers had a constructive run worth (so, good for pitchers.) It has dropped a bit of this season, however isn’t far off that 2024 mark. (The earlier file was -0.16 runs per 100 pitches; in 2025, it’s at -0.02 runs per 100 pitches.)
It looks as if offense ought to be bettering…
By a handful of key metrics, it seems like hitters are lastly gaining an edge over their foes on the mound. Exit velocities are larger than ever. Arduous-hit fee is up, leaping almost two share factors from 2024 to 2025. Barrels are as frequent as they’ve been at any level this decade. And all of those beneficial properties in batted ball high quality are coming with out a contact tradeoff. Actually, strikeouts are literally down this season, whereas walks are up, maybe because of the smaller strike zone. So absolutely offense is manner up?
…Nevertheless it isn’t
The league-wide OPS in 2024 was .711. In 2025, it’s all the best way as much as… .715. So what’s the deal? There are a pair potential explanations.
One is that — shocker — the ball is completely different. Drag is up. In line with a June report from The Athletic, the drag coefficient — .3514 — is larger than it’s been at any level within the Statcast period. Larger drag implies that the ball received’t carry as far. The Athletic report speculates that the seams are larger, however the “why” is much less clear, past it being a perform of the ball-to-ball variation attributable to the hand-stitched nature of the seams. Regardless of the motive, the numbers are the numbers: Drag is up, which is making hard-hit balls much less impactful.
The opposite idea I’ll throw out comes courtesy of a Russell Carleton Baseball Prospectus story from final month. As Russell reported, outfielders are catching so many fly balls now. Why? His idea is multifaceted, however briefly, it’s that they’re getting higher at every part — chasing balls down, operating quick, positioning themselves. Russell concludes that it isn’t that the parks are getting smaller or that extra lazy fly balls are getting hit; it’s that the defenders themselves are bettering. The always-improving outfielders are nearly actually placing a dent in league-wide offense.
These are my two finest guesses. But when I’m lacking something, I’d love to listen to your theories, as a result of in any other case, I’m stumped.
Arm angles are dropping
In the meantime, pitchers proceed to plot the demise of the fellows holding the bats. Every year, arm angles are dropping additional. The explanation why are clear sufficient — decrease arm angles permit for flatter strategy angles, that are more and more prized by sensible organizations, and would possibly result in fewer accidents.
Matthew Trueblood of Baseball Prospectus wrote concerning the arm angle revolution in April. He bucketed pitchers by arm slot and analyzed the efficiency of fastballs thrown by these buckets to the upper-third of the strike zone. Unsurprisingly, he discovered that the bottom arm angle pitchers have one of the best batted ball outcomes and the very best whiff charges. Because the arm angle climbs, the outcomes decline.
Pitch mixes are increasing
As pitchers decrease their arm slots every year, optimizing the efficiency of their fastballs and doubtlessly even conserving their arms more healthy, in addition they add extra pitches. All the best way again in February, Lance Brozdowski forecasted that this might be the 12 months of the pitch combine.
Lance famous that, after a number of seasons of roughly no change, pitchers have thrown extra kinds of pitches every season because the 2022 marketing campaign. Utilizing the parameters of a minimal of two,000 pitches thrown and 100 pitches per pitch kind to qualify, he discovered that the typical variety of separate pitches per beginning pitcher was 4.3 in 2022. In 2024, it was 4.7; Lance predicted it will eclipse 5 within the 2025 marketing campaign.
We’re not fairly there, however we’re very shut. Utilizing comparable parameters — 1,000 pitches thrown and 50 complete pitches per pitch kind as a result of the season is (roughly) midway carried out — I discovered that pitchers are averaging 4.93 separate pitches thrown, which might be the largest leap on file. Not is the brand new scorching factor “throw your finest pitch extra” — pitchers are realizing that including ever extra pitches is the best way to go.
Third base coaches nonetheless aren’t aggressive sufficient
In March, Patrick Dubuque wrote considered one of my favourite items of the 12 months. Revisiting some Russell Carleton analysis from 2010 titled “Why All Third-Base Coaches Ought to Be Fired,” Patrick discovered that — even within the 15 years since Russell wrote his authentic piece — the success fee in sacrifice fly conditions stays unreasonably excessive. In 2010, Russell discovered that the success fee was 96%. In 2024, Patrick discovered it was 97%. Breaking the info down additional, he discovered that there are a big variety of fly balls hit between 250 and 300 toes the place third base coaches have a tendency to carry runners, regardless of the extraordinarily excessive success fee on balls hit to this area.
Referencing Patrick’s piece, Ben Lindbergh, in Successfully Wild’s preseason daring predictions draft, guessed that the sacrifice fly success fee would fall beneath 94%.
No cube. By way of the primary 59% of the season, the sac fly fee is definitely even larger than it was in 2024. Utilizing Baseball Savant, I discovered 778 profitable sacrifice flies, and 18 double performs the place a runner was thrown out at dwelling. That’s a 97.8% success fee, if my methodology was appropriate there. Time to get daring, third base coaches! You’ve received (nearly) nothing to lose! (Except you’re Matt Tuiasosopo.)