Has Ceddanne Rafaela Made the Leap?

Ceddanne Rafaela’s breakout 2025 season has really been a shock. It wasn’t simply that he ran a wRC+ of 80 in his first full huge league marketing campaign in 2024. It was how he acquired there. He ran the worst chase and strikeout charges of all certified gamers. His contact price and exit velocity ranked proper close to the underside as nicely. He nonetheless appeared like he could possibly be an excellent participant by means of wonderful protection in middle area, however regardless that he was simply 23, it raised actual considerations about his potential on the plate. Past the truth that gamers haven’t traditionally improved their chase charges a lot after their rookie seasons, Rafaela’s chase price was so excessive that it was onerous to search out somebody to check him to. A younger participant can be anticipated to refine his plate self-discipline some, however even when he had actually knocked an remarkable 10 proportion factors off his chase price, he nonetheless would’ve had the Twelfth-highest chase price amongst all certified gamers. And but right here he’s now.

Rafaela has a 115 wRC+ and is on tempo for five.6 WAR this season. He has been probably the most invaluable place participant on the Purple Sox. It’s most likely helped that Rafaela has a 12 months of expertise below his belt and has been allowed to stay in middle area all season, however this can be a big turnaround nonetheless. How did it occur? Let’s begin originally.

By Could 27, Rafaela was batting .221 with a wRC+ of 64. It was ugly, and since it wasn’t that removed from what he did final season, it was straightforward to miss some genuinely encouraging underlying numbers. (Credit score to reader rickdugo3000 who set me straight within the feedback after I missed these features again in Could.) Even throughout that horrible stretch, Rafaela’s stroll price was up a bit from final 12 months and his strikeout price was down considerably. His common exit velocity had taken an infinite bounce from 86.6 mph in 2024 – Twelfth lowest amongst all certified gamers – all the best way as much as 90.5, which put him across the seventieth percentile. His xwOBA had climbed from .273 all the best way to .335. He appeared a complete lot higher, however the ball simply wasn’t discovering grass.

Since Could 28, Rafaela has hit 12 residence runs and put up a 178 wRC+. His 2.7 WAR over that 40-game stretch have made him the third-best participant in the whole sport, sitting between Aaron Decide and Byron Buxton. In response to our total fielding metric (which features a positional adjustment), he’s been the sixth-best defender in baseball throughout that very same span, simply forward of Pete Crow-Armstrong. As you may count on, Rafaela has skilled some batted ball luck over this era, too. While you mix the ice-cold begin and the red-hot current stretch, his luck has nearly balanced out. His wOBA and xwOBA are inside a number of factors of one another, as are his DRC+ and wRC+. He’s making David Laurila’s daring prediction of 4.0 WAR and a Gold Glove look very good certainly.

So Rafaela actually has been higher this season. Let’s speak about how he acquired there, and we’ll begin by recapping our three fundamental considerations. First, Rafaela was chasing method, method an excessive amount of. Subsequent, he wasn’t making sufficient contact on pitches within the zone. Final, he wasn’t hitting the ball onerous. Put that each one collectively and also you’ve acquired a participant who by no means walks, strikes out an excessive amount of, and gained’t get on base when he does put the ball in play. That’s not a recipe for fulfillment, so let’s see what’s modified.

Statcast credited Rafaela with a 46.4% chase price in 2024. That’s the sixth-highest single-season mark amongst all certified gamers since 2008, the start of the pitch monitoring period. If we use information from Sports activities Information Options, which has chase charges going again to 2002, Rafaela simply ran the best full-season chase price of any certified participant ever. We’re speaking about arguably the worst plate self-discipline marketing campaign in recorded historical past. This season, he has dropped his chase price to 42.1%. That’s a big enchancment, however it nonetheless leaves him with the fourth-highest mark amongst all certified gamers, and it’s awfully onerous to be a very good hitter whilst you’re chasing that a lot. Rafaela has minimize his chase price in opposition to breaking balls and fastballs, however he’s chasing offspeed stuff greater than ever. It’s nice that he has improved some on this respect, however that is nonetheless a really, very troubling a part of his sport.

Then again, Rafaela’s contact price on pitches contained in the zone rose from 75% in 2024 to 82.8% this season. Not solely is that a large acquire – the fifth highest amongst certified gamers this season – however it additionally pulls Rafaela again from a scary precipice. As Ben Zeidman wrote in an eye-opening article for Baseball Prospectus final 12 months, zone contact is a shelf statistic. That’s, it’s vital to achieve a sure minimal threshold, however so long as you do, it’s not all that vital. “The distinction between 71% and 79% may imply the world for an enormous leaguer’s viability,” Zeidman wrote, “however the identical eight-point differential between 80% and 88% sees a stark discount in significance.” Rafaela continues to be working a below-average zone contact price, however he’s shut sufficient to that common that it’s not going to carry him again all that a lot. He has particularly stopped whiffing in opposition to offspeed stuff within the zone, enhancing his contact price on these pitches from 74% all the best way to 94%.

Final comes contact high quality, and it offers one other actually encouraging signal. We most likely ought to’ve anticipated that Rafaela may hit the ball tougher than he confirmed final season. He hit greater than 20 homers within the minors in each 2022 and 2023, and he ran a forty five.4% hard-hit price in Triple-A in 2023. However even realizing that, this season represents fairly a bounce.

In each measure of contact high quality we’ve acquired, Rafaela has gone from considerably beneath common to above common. To make sure, a part of this comes from the truth that he’s making higher swing choices. In 2024, 70% of his balls in play got here on pitches contained in the zone. This season he’s at 79%. If we take a look at the guts of the plate, these numbers are 44% and 51%. It’s so much simpler to hit the ball tougher while you’re swinging at a good pitch. However that’s not the only real clarification for his improved high quality of contact, as a result of even once we look solely at pitches within the zone (and once more throughout the coronary heart of the zone), he’s hitting the ball tougher than he did final 12 months. His bat velocity has elevated a bit. His hard-hit price has improved in opposition to fastballs, breaking balls, and offspeed pitches – that’s, in opposition to all pitches.

Rafaela additionally appears a bit completely different on the plate. He added muscle within the offseason and got here into spring coaching with a plan to enhance in opposition to lefties. He has adjusted his stance to be rather less open, and his leg kick is far more dramatic this season. On the suggestion of recent teammate Alex Bregman, he has just about eradicated all pre-pitch hand motion.

In order that’s the place we’re. Rafaela continues to be chasing disconcertingly typically, however his contact price on pitches contained in the strike zone has jumped towards the underside of the appropriate vary and he’s hitting the ball a lot tougher. He not appears like a legal responsibility on the plate. Quite, he appears like a participant whose excessive strikeout price and low stroll price will trigger him to be very depending on batted ball luck – setting him as much as be very streaky, as we’ve seen thus far this season – however one who actually could possibly be an above-average hitter total regardless of these flaws. After all, all of that depends upon Rafaela holding onto these features. It’s simpler to belief the acquire in exit velocity. That’s onerous to pretend, and it alone raises Rafaela’s flooring in a big method. However his contact price would be the one to observe. Going ahead, plate self-discipline will nonetheless resolve how Rafaela’s story seems.