This week’s All Star break is a uncommon hole within the baseball calendar, an opportunity for everybody to catch their breath earlier than the fun of the commerce deadline — and, in the event you’re a FanGraphs reader, possibly the fun of the commerce worth collection, too. It’s additionally every week with little or no baseball, which implies the traditional format for 5 Issues must take a break. As an alternative, listed below are 5 issues that I’m trying ahead to within the second half of the season, from commerce deadline trendsetters to crazy leaderboards to my favourite younger star.
A fast programming observe earlier than we proceed: No 5 Issues for the subsequent two weeks, and as an alternative of my repeatedly scheduled chat look on Monday, we’ll have a jumbo-length commerce worth chat subsequent Friday on the conclusion of the collection. 5 Issues will probably be again on Friday, August 8, the primary week after commerce season winds down.
1. Who Will Promote First?
There are six groups hanging onto the fringes of the playoff chase, three-plus video games again of the ultimate wild card spot. Most of these groups are in win-now mode, which implies all of them have attention-grabbing gamers to commerce in the event that they pivot to promoting. Solely certainly one of them can transfer first, although.
Within the AL Central, the complete center of the division is under .500 and on the ropes. But when all three groups are intent on competing subsequent 12 months – they usually all look like – they won’t have a lot to supply. Seth Lugo is the perfect participant on an expiring deal, however regardless of their 11.7% playoff odds as of Thursday afternoon, the Royals would possibly determine to face pat. They’re proper in the midst of the height Bobby Witt Jr. rivalry years and wouldn’t get an earth-shaking return again for dealing Lugo. So why not take a slim shot on the playoffs with their present roster? It’s an in depth name, although I’d most likely commerce him.
Neither the Guardians nor the Twins have many engaging pending free brokers, however in current days, Joe Ryan has been the topic of commerce rumors. Minnesota definitely doesn’t need to deal him; he has two extra arbitration years after this season.
That leaves two groups because the possible movers and shakers with a number of good gamers to commerce: Arizona and Baltimore. The Diamondbacks are three under, and with Corbin Burnes out for the 12 months, they’re not at full power anyway. In addition they have a treasure trove of gamers on expiring contracts; Eugenio Suárez is the perfect hitter even presumably obtainable on the deadline, loads of pitching labs would like to work with Zac Gallen, and Merrill Kelly and Josh Naylor are confirmed veteran contributors.
The Orioles don’t have anybody I’d take over Suárez, however they make up for it in quantity. Zach Eflin, Ryan O’Hearn, and Cedric Mullins are all simply starter-caliber gamers on postseason groups. Seranthony Domínguez and Ramón Laureano are attention-grabbing. Gregory Soto and Andrew Kittredge can go. The Orioles have so many gamers they’re more likely to deal that they’re going to have rather a lot to say in regards to the tempo of the deadline: The longer they wait to make their first deal, the extra the market will wait together with them.
Two different groups might upset this equilibrium: the Cardinals and Purple Sox. Each golf equipment have attention-grabbing gamers whom they’ve beforehand signaled a willingness to deal and rosters that might use some massaging. The one drawback – “drawback” – is that they’re every enjoying too nicely. If both of them enters the fray, the complete tenor of the commerce deadline will change. I don’t count on that to occur, although, which implies we is perhaps in for a deadline outlined by two sellers.
2. The Indefatigable Brewers
What if I instructed you that everybody on our preseason Brewers beginning pitching depth chart, aside from workers ace Freddy Peralta, had mixed for 0.7 WAR? All of them. Not the opposite 4 projected members of the preliminary rotation – the entire dang depth chart? What if I instructed you that Jackson Chourio would have a disappointing first half, that William Contreras would publish his worst offensive 12 months, that Joey Ortiz would flirt with the Mendoza line? You’d count on them to be lagging towards the underside of the Central, notably if I additionally instructed you that the Cubs, Cardinals, and Reds would all be above .500.
Proper, yeah, the Brewers are a recreation out of first, tied for the fourth-best file in baseball. That beginning rotation? Positive, the fellows we anticipated to pitch nicely have been harm or ineffective, however the Brewers haven’t missed a beat. They traded for Quinn Priester, who appears completely able to supplying the amount of cromulent innings that Milwaukee adeptly converts into wins because of its glorious protection and bullpen. Chad Patrick has the identical ability set – fungible sufficient that the Brewers have been comfortable to possibility him to Triple-A, however solely after he’d racked up 2.0 WAR protecting the rotation afloat.
Now, issues are beginning to choose up. Brandon Woodruff is again after a 12 months and a half on the shelf. Jose Quintana is the veteran model of Priester and Patrick. Jacob Misiorowski is perhaps the perfect of the entire bunch – a flamethrowing monster who solutions the hypothetical query of what it might appear like if a more in-depth might go for 5 innings at a time. The entire sudden, Milwaukee’s rotation is an asset as an alternative of a legal responsibility.
In the meantime, the offense is clicking even with out contributions from a few of their stars. They’ve solely produced an combination 101 wRC+, however these are the Brewers: They’re the perfect baserunning staff within the majors, and that helps their offense play nicely above what you’d count on from a easy including up of hits and outs. They’re most likely not going to maintain up this tempo with out Chourio and Contreras enhancing, however then once more, I’d guess on these two to rebound.
This isn’t magical. It isn’t some unprecedented fluke. That is what the Brewers do. They stack baserunning and protection. They construct their offense round that blazing pace, and inventory their rotation with pitchers who give their fielders an opportunity to shine. It sounds too easy to work; but yearly, they piece it collectively. Milwaukee is greater than only a reminder that there’s extra to baseball than pitching and hitting – however I’ve to inform you, this group is superb at giving folks that reminder.
3. Garrett Crochet’s Pursuit of a Full Yr
I beloved the Garrett Crochet commerce for the Purple Sox, and I beloved the Crochet extension for each the pitcher and the staff. I like that Boston is letting him work deep into video games as an alternative of babying him all 12 months. However even with all of that, I by no means thought he’d make a run at 200 innings.
I can hardly consider that this loopy reality is true: Garrett Crochet leads the majors in innings pitched. This isn’t some trick of an additional begin or a well-aligned off day. He’s simply throwing 6 1/2 innings per begin now. I get it. He’s a giant, robust man. However Crochet got here into 2025 with precisely three begins in his entire profession of that size or longer. He made a full 32 begins final 12 months and solely reached 146 innings, a median of 4 1/2 innings per begin.
If he makes each begin the remainder of the way in which, he’ll finish the 12 months with roughly the identical variety of main league innings pitched that he tallied from 2020 by 2024. That shouldn’t really feel so possible. It shouldn’t appear so apparent. However Crochet is making it look straightforward, and once you watch the man pitch, it simply is sensible. He’s enormous, tall and muscular, the form of body that screams “energy pitcher.” He’s economical on the mound and his supply seems to be easy and repeatable. In case you put what you knew about Crochet earlier than this 12 months out of your head and easily watched him, you wouldn’t discover any of this notably unusual.
However we do know all that historical past. We all know that the White Sox didn’t let Crochet pitch longer than 4 innings in a begin after the start of July final 12 months. We all know that he wasn’t keen to decide to beginning within the playoffs with out signing a contract extension. It feels somewhat tenuous, even when nothing seems to be visibly incorrect. And that makes watching his pursuit much more pleasant, not less than for me. I’m not nervous about his sturdiness any greater than I’m with another pitcher. And but, when he succeeds, I get somewhat additional enjoyment from understanding how unlikely this felt a 12 months in the past.
The Purple Sox are in playoff place for the time being, and that’s much more incentive to let Crochet prepare dinner. They’d be an intriguing staff to look at even with out the subplot of Crochet’s workload; they’ve too many outfielders and never sufficient infielders, however each of these conditions are extra sophisticated than they initially sound as a result of all of these gamers are fascinating. However when Crochet begins, you get all of that and the possibility to see a contemporary marvel, the pitcher who was solely fragile as a result of they instructed him to be. He has now solid off these chains.
4. The Bunt Hit Race
Oh, you want house run races? Me too. Cal Raleigh towards Aaron Choose towards Shohei Ohtani for the title of boppingest bopper? It’s gonna be nice. However there’s a more in-depth race happening proper now, too. And identical to the house run race, final 12 months’s chief is within the combine for a repeat. That’s proper: The bunt single leaderboard is crowded on the prime:
Bunt Hit Leaderboard, 2025
Jacob Younger paced baseball with 11 bunt hits final 12 months. He did in order the embodiment of pace and protection: Gold Glove-caliber vary in middle, 97th percentile dash pace, and three homers in 521 plate appearances. He slugged solely .331 final 12 months, however managed an 85 wRC+ because of a knack for getting hit by pitches and people great bunts. And whereas he isn’t getting hit so often in 2025 – solely twice, as in comparison with 12 instances final 12 months – the bunts are coming simply as freely as at all times. Opponents play Younger to bunt. It simply doesn’t matter:
They play nice defenders to cease him. That doesn’t at all times work both:
The largest menace to Younger’s bunt hit totals, coming into the 12 months, gave the impression to be his personal teammates. Dylan Crews seems to be like a middle fielder long run, and if he had hit the bottom operating this season, the staff most likely would have put there sooner somewhat than later. However Crews began sluggish, after which he received harm, which implies that Younger is the on a regular basis starter with no substitute in sight. Now he can bunt to his coronary heart’s content material, and he’s doing simply that: His 19 in-play bunts lead the majors.
It gained’t be straightforward to take the title, although. Kyle Isbel has an on a regular basis middle fielder position of his personal and as a lot license to bunt as Younger. He’s the massive aspect of a platoon, which might theoretically restrict his at-bats, however he’s been wholesome all 12 months and thus has amassed extra plate appearances than Younger anyway. He’s additionally a a lot better hitter than Tyler Tolbert, his present platoon companion, which implies the Royals often use Isbel as a pinch hitter even when he doesn’t begin. And like Younger, he goes for bunts even when the protection performs him that approach:
These two titans of bunting – first and second in makes an attempt, tied for first in hits – have firm on the prime. TJ Friedl doesn’t fairly match the archetype, although. He’s a middle fielder, certain, however the place Younger and Isbel bat ninth, Friedl leads off. He’s slashing .276/.368/.406 this 12 months, good for a 117 wRC+ even in hitter-friendly Cincinnati. When Younger and Isbel bunt, they’re doing so with out numerous different good choices. Friedl has a double-digit stroll charge and extra homers than Younger has extra-base hits.
When Friedl bunts, the protection is mostly caught not less than barely off guard. That’s why he does it; it’s much less a matter of necessity and extra in regards to the factor of shock. The O’s have been utterly flat-footed on this high-percentage play:
Oh, and Friedl isn’t the one one coming for the title. What bunt race can be full with out Victor Scott II? He’s fallen again to earth laborious after a scorching begin – 113 wRC+ by Might 23, 53 wRC+ since. His bunts have dried up, too: He has just one bunt base hit for the reason that begin of June. That one, although, exhibits you why he’s nonetheless a menace to take the crown:
That wasn’t an awesome bunt. Everybody within the stadium knew it was occurring. Nobody fumbled the ball or combined up an project. Scott was comfortably secure anyway. He’s simply that quick.
I’m pretty sure that the winner of the bunt base hit title will garner much less consideration than the winner of the house run race. That’s honest, truthfully: Residence runs are much more necessary to successful baseball video games than bunts. However I like the chaos that comes with a bunt, whether or not profitable or unsuccessful, so I’m going to maintain watching this leaderboard. Might the perfect bunter – or not less than, the man who tries most often — win.
5. Watching James Wooden
I do know, I do know. Two objects in regards to the Nationals? They’re one of many worst groups in baseball. However the coronary heart needs what it needs, and mine needs to look at the D.C. 9. Younger’s bunts are good when he pulls them off, however bunt singles are uncommon even for the profitable practitioner. The true attraction of watching the Nats is that you just get to see a generational expertise determining tips on how to dominate baseball in actual time.
James Wooden was an attention-grabbing however speculative prospect when the Nats acquired him within the 2022 Juan Soto commerce, solely a 12 months after the Padres had drafted him within the second spherical. He promptly dominated the minors so totally that Washington promoted him to the majors final season after solely 231 Triple-A plate appearances. While you hit .353/.463/.595, there simply isn’t that a lot to show. And since reaching the massive leagues at 21, he’s solely continued his torrid play.
If any 22-year-old posted a 152 wRC+ for a half-season, touchdown him among the many prime 20 gamers within the recreation by WAR, that will be noteworthy. However Wooden isn’t some backyard selection prime prospect. He’s a bodily specimen, a 6-foot-7 alien despatched from the long run to beat baseball. He seems to be like he’s found out a brand new, totally different solution to play baseball whereas the remainder of his staff tries the outdated strategies.
Wooden’s energy is past thunderous. Even the good Pete Crow-Armstrong can’t retreat shortly sufficient when Wooden places one over his head:
When he hits them with a bit extra loft than that, it’s fireworks time:
One thing about watching Wooden invitations magical considering. Might he be prime Aaron Choose in just a few years? He definitely seems to be the half. Might he stroll 20% of the time? He’s fifteenth within the majors in stroll charge already, and nobody else within the prime 30 is below the age of 25. His sense of the zone is precocious, in different phrases. Might he be an elite outfield defender whereas doing it? He’s improved markedly by each defensive system and by the attention check. Might he hit 60 homers whereas doing all of that? I imply, certain, have you ever seen the scale of this man?
In case you, like me, are at all times on the lookout for the subsequent sensation, Wooden is your man. Elly De La Cruz? He’s nice, however he’s so 2024. Oneil Cruz? That ship has sailed. Fernando Tatis Jr., even? Enjoyable, however not transformative. Wooden is the form of participant who doesn’t come round fairly often, the kind of man who enables you to think about stuff you’ve by no means seen earlier than transpiring on the sector. He’s already so good, and he’s nonetheless enhancing at such a speedy clip. Watching what’s occurred to the Nats is a reminder that rebuilding is tough. Watching Wooden is a reminder that something is feasible.