Conflict in Cobb County: Previewing the 2025 Dwelling Run Derby

Completely satisfied Derby Day! At 8:00 p.m. tonight at Truist Park in Cobb County, Georgia, a few of the largest human beings Main League Baseball has to supply might be hitting a few of the longest residence runs possible, and we get to observe. The cool children might be tuned into the Statcast broadcast on ESPN 2, hosted by Kevin Brown (the present Orioles play-by-play man, not the former Orioles pitcher), Jessica Mendoza, and erstwhile FanGraphs contributor Mike Petriello. Petriello instructed me that he spent Friday crunching first-half stats and Derby outcomes from 2016 to 2024 in an effort to create a prediction mannequin, so if you wish to see a baseball nerd being baseball nerdy on nationwide tv, be sure you catch the opening.

Though we by no means get to see all the celebrities we’d like within the Derby, this 12 months might really feel significantly bereft. We’re lacking out on A-listers like Aaron Decide and Shohei Ohtani, and Derby legends like Pete Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. We’re additionally going to be with out many of the most prolific residence run hitters of the season. Cal Raleigh and James Wooden are the one individuals who rank throughout the prime 9 in residence runs. Solely half the Derby contestants are even within the prime 30. We’ve got no repeat individuals from the 2024 season. The truth is, Matt Olson is the one one who has ever participated within the Derby earlier than, and he misplaced within the first spherical in 2021. Alternatively, Raleigh leads the majors in residence runs, and based mostly purely on how far and exhausting these eight sluggers hit the ball, we might properly have essentially the most highly effective subject ever assembled.

If there’s a report to be careful for tonight, it’s the one for the longest residence run ever hit in a Derby. In Oneil Cruz, we’ve obtained the participant with the quickest bat velocity and the very best exit velocity ever recorded. Though he’s simply 22, Junior Caminero’s bat velocity trails solely Cruz’s, and Wooden and Byron Buxton additionally possess a few of the most explosive energy within the sport. The present Derby report is 520 toes, set by Juan Soto at Coors Area in 2021, and the one factor maintaining it protected tonight is likely to be that Truist Park wasn’t constructed on prime of a mountain. The longest non-Colorado homer belongs to Aaron Decide, who blasted one 513 toes in Miami in 2017.

Lefties also needs to have an actual benefit, as Truist Park is a full 10 toes shorter down the road in proper subject than in left. In response to Statcast’s park components, the house run issue is 106 for lefties and 98 for righties.

The Guidelines

For as soon as the foundations don’t appear to be altering. They’re the identical as final 12 months, however fear not; we’ll do a refresher as a result of they’re nonetheless very, very sophisticated. The primary spherical is an open competitors, with all eight individuals making an attempt to hit as many homers as doable and the highest 4 shifting on. These 4 are seeded by their first-round totals and put right into a head-to-head bracket.

Every spherical has each a time and a pitch restrict, so the spherical is over at any time when a type of limits expires. Batters get three minutes or 40 pitches within the first spherical, and two minutes or 27 pitches within the semifinals and finals. Final 12 months, that produced simply the correct amount of urgency. Gamers had been fairly evenly break up; about half ended their first spherical with a couple of seconds left on the clock, and about half ended their first spherical as a result of time ran out with a couple of pitches left. Nevertheless, it’s price emphasizing the restrict is on pitches somewhat than swings, so pitcher high quality is essential.

In every spherical, each participant additionally will get an untimed bonus interval. They will rack up residence runs till they make three outs, and in the event that they hit a homer of at the very least 425 toes throughout the bonus spherical, they get a fourth out. Every participant will get a 45-second timeout in every spherical, however it might probably’t be referred to as through the bonus interval or tiebreakers.

If there’s a tie within the first spherical, the participant who hits the longest homer advances. If there’s a tie within the semis or finals, the gamers face off in a 60-second swing-off. In the event that they’re nonetheless tied after the swing-off, they do swing-offs of simply three swings every till a winner emerges.

With that, let’s get into the individuals, sorted under by the order wherein they are going to bat tonight.

James Wooden

At simply 22, Wooden is certainly one of two gamers on this 12 months’s subject with the prospect to turn out to be the youngest Derby winner ever, a feat at present held by Juan Gonzalez, who was 23 when he gained it in 1993. The 6-foot-7 Wooden ranks fourth in baseball and leads the sphere with 10 batted balls that traveled at the very least 425 toes this season. He might completely obliterate the sphere, spraying line drive residence runs in each course in all three rounds. However it appears equally seemingly that he might flame out within the first spherical, failing to hit balls excessive sufficient to recover from the fence.

He simply doesn’t elevate the ball, in any respect. His launch angle is the sixth lowest amongst all certified gamers and his groundball fee is the ninth highest. Wooden additionally runs one of many lowest pull charges within the sport. That may not do him any favors in Atlanta, however then once more, he hits the ball so exhausting that it tends to not matter. He’s working a 152 wRC+ and his 24 residence runs rank second within the subject, as a result of at any time when he does handle to raise the ball, he’s unstoppable. He leads the sphere in common residence run distance and common fly ball distance, and his 32.4% HR/FB fee is the very best within the sport. He might properly put up among the best pure shows of energy we’ll ever see.

Extra encouraging, MLB.com has some footage of a timed follow session Wooden and Nationals third base coach Ricky Gutierrez took the weekend earlier than final. Solely three homers had been proven within the video, however none of them went to the other subject.

Brent Rooker

Rooker would be the first Athletics consultant within the Derby since some man named Matt Olson in 2021. He’s on tempo for his third straight 30-homer season. Since becoming a member of the A’s forward of the 2023 season, he’s been among the best hitters within the sport, working a 143 wRC+, launching 89 residence runs and placing up 9.4 WAR. He’s additionally coming in scorching. His 172 wRC+ in July trails solely Buxton’s 175 mark. Rooker ranks in the midst of the Derby subject in nearly each class apart from those that point out true top-end energy. His max and ninetieth percentile exit velocity each rank seventh out of eight. For granted-handed hitter whose energy is nearer to good than nice, Rooker could also be at a drawback as a consequence of Atlanta’s lefty-friendly dimensions.

Joe Caruso, Rooker’s childhood hitting coach, might be pitching to him tonight, and the 2 ran by way of a timed follow session in Sacramento earlier than Saturday’s sport. “I’m drained,” Rooker instructed reporters, earlier than going out and hitting a homer and a double through the sport.

Junior Caminero

Caminero turned an All-Star rather than Alex Bregman, then turned the AL starter at third base rather than José Ramírez, however make no mistake about it, he’s a phenom. He solely turned 22 final week, so he joins Wooden as the opposite participant tonight who might dethrone Juan Gone because the youngest to ever win a Derby. Caminero ranks third within the subject with 23 residence runs in simply his first full season as an enormous leaguer, so who’re we to place any type of ceiling on his potential. Nevertheless, he hits the ball on the bottom quite a bit. His common fly ball travels simply 326 toes, the shortest common distance of anybody within the Derby. He’s obtained the bottom barrel fee within the subject and the second-lowest common exit velocity and hard-hit fee. Mishits and groundouts usually are not your pal within the Derby.

The argument for Caminero is fairly easy. When he hits the ball exhausting, he hits it awfully exhausting. His common bat velocity of 78 mph is the second highest each within the subject and in all of baseball, behind Cruz. That’s proper, he swings more durable than Wooden and Decide. His ninetieth percentile exit velocity ranks third amongst Derby contestants. Caminero can be taking issues significantly. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Instances reported that Caminero has taken three timed follow classes in current days and sought recommendation from 2024 winner Teoscar Hernández. His pitcher, Tomas Francisco, throws to him on a regular basis and pitched to Randy Arozarena within the 2023 Derby. If Caminero will be in any respect constant tonight, he ought to at the very least have an opportunity. Possibly we must always simply belief these 23 residence runs.

Oneil Cruz

Cruz needs to be a favourite on this competitors, which is bizarre as a result of with a 102 wRC+ and a .212 batting common, he’s the worst hitter within the subject. He’s hit the fewest residence runs and his slugging proportion is the bottom. He’s simply not having an awesome season on the plate, and he’s solely hit one residence run this month. He’s tied for forty second in homers this season, and he has the second-lowest common launch angle of the individuals. He additionally left Saturday’s sport early after feeling some hip flexor discomfort and solely made it into Sunday’s sport as a pinch-hitter. He apparently obtained talked into taking part within the first place as a result of his spouse and youngsters wished to see him within the sport.

All the identical, Cruz needs to be a favourite as a result of no person can hit the ball more durable than him. He ripped a 122.9-mph homer in Milwaukee in Could, the hardest-hit ball ever recorded; he additionally owns the second- and sixth-hardest batted balls. This season, he’s hit six of the highest 10. He leads the world in bat velocity and hard-hit fee, together with all three manufacturers of exit velocity by a big hole. In relation to making exhausting contact, there’s Cruz, then there’s everybody else. He might smack a house run with a pool cue. Heck, he might whack a house run with a pool noodle. How might you rely him out?

Cruz talked about final week that he had reached out to Julio Rodríguez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for recommendation, and that he can be beginning some follow classes.

Byron Buxton

I don’t wish to jinx something, but it surely lastly appears that Buxton is getting the season he so richly deserves. He has been probably the most gifted all-around gamers within the sport since his debut in 2015, however time and time once more, accidents have derailed what ought to by all rights have been a storybook profession. Consequently, that is simply his second All-Star nod, and with 21 residence runs, he’s already simply seven away from the profession excessive he set over simply 92 video games in 2022. Buxton grew up in Baxley, Georgia, just below 200 miles from Atlanta, which makes it really feel just like the universe is lastly able to make issues proper.

Though he handled a sore hand not too long ago, Buxton comes into the Derby absurdly scorching, hitting for the cycle on his bobblehead day on Saturday and working a wRC+ of 350 over his final six video games. He ranks seventh in baseball and is tied with Cruz with six batted balls that traveled at the very least 425 toes this season. His common residence run distance of 410 toes is second solely to Wooden. Extra to the purpose, he’s the type of all-around athlete who’s so preternaturally gifted that nothing he does would shock you. I pulled 23 totally different batting metrics in an effort to examine your entire subject. Though Buxton solely led in a single – batting common – he was the one participant who didn’t rank worse than sixth in any class. He’s neither probably the most highly effective or prolific residence run hitters within the subject, however he’s obtained sufficient energy that he can hit the ball out at will, and he’s certain to earn that further bonus out each likelihood he will get. Buxton has been working towards together with his pitcher, Twins third base coach Tommy Watkins, and talked about that he’s talked to 2008 winner Justin Morneau in regards to the Derby.

Yet one more enjoyable factor to maintain a watch out for: Buxton talked about that his oldest son Brixton is worked up in regards to the Derby primarily as a result of he needs to be the one to ship the towel to his dad throughout timeouts.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

At first blush, Chisholm might seem like the odd man out on this group. Standing at a comparatively slight 5-foot-11, he nonetheless seems each bit the center infielder he was when he broke into the league in 2020. He’s by no means hit greater than 24 residence runs in a season, and with 17 homers in 2025, he’s tied with Olson for the second fewest within the subject. He ranks final within the subject when it comes to nearly each contact high quality metric: hard-hit fee, in addition to common, max, and ninetieth percentile exit velocity. He simply doesn’t hit the ball as exhausting as the opposite guys. He’s solely launched two balls at the very least 425 toes this season.

Compounding these issues, Chisholm has made it clear that he’s not taking the Derby too significantly, vowing to give it 70% as he has all season lengthy. He’s not planning any particular preparations, and his stepfather, Geron Sands, might be pitching to him. To be honest, Sands has pitched to Chisholm in earlier offseason derbies, however he’s nonetheless the one pitcher who isn’t an expert coach.

Right here’s the factor: Chisholm finds a strategy to hit residence runs anyway. He’s solely gotten into 64 video games this season as a consequence of an April indirect pressure, so when taking a look at his residence run fee on a per-game and per-PA foundation, he ranks third amongst Derby contestants. His barrel fee and remoted slugging are additionally third. Maybe most significantly, 10.6% of Chisholm’s balls in play have gone for residence runs this season, which ranks tenth amongst all gamers with at the very least 100 balls in play, behind solely Raleigh within the subject. No one strikes out within the Derby. No one has to fret about curveballs. All they’re seeing are meatballs, and Chisholm is nice at changing his batted balls into homers. The Derby is about energy, but it surely’s additionally about effectivity. Possibly that might be sufficient. Possibly giving it 70%, and perhaps not being an enormous man who takes enormous hacks might give him a bit extra stamina.

Cal Raleigh

No participant might use a break greater than Raleigh, however right here he’s, beginning the All-Star Recreation and taking part within the Derby. Raleigh has 6.2 WAR and a 178 wRC+. As a catcher! On the All-Star break! He trails solely Decide in each classes. He’s on tempo for greater than 10 WAR, which might represent the best catcher season of all-time. He’s already simply 10 residence runs away from the single-season catcher report. That is additionally as shut because it will get to a house sport for the North Carolina native. Possibly we must always simply bow to destiny and acknowledge that that is Cal Raleigh’s 12 months.

Raleigh ranks within the backside half of the sphere when it comes to contact high quality. His common residence run travels simply 386 toes, tied with Chisholm for final place. A switch-hitter, Raleigh has additionally been considerably higher batting from the appropriate aspect than the left aspect this season. However he boasts the very best launch angle of the contestants, and he’s mastered the artwork of lifting and pulling the ball from both aspect of the plate. As I wrote a month in the past, all he does is hit homers. Raleigh has 5 hits this month. All of them are residence runs. His final hit in June? Additionally a house run. To this point this season, 15.5% of his batted balls have been residence runs, the very best fee in baseball. Raleigh has sought recommendation from teammates Arozarena and Rodríguez, each of whom have participated within the Derby.

Raleigh’s father Todd might be pitching to him, however don’t let that fear you. The elder Raleigh is a baseball lifer who caught at Western Carolina College, signed with the Crimson Sox, then spent many years working his means up the faculty teaching ranks, serving as head coach at each Western Carolina and Tennessee. He’s thrown loads of BP in his day, and the 2 have already held at the very least one timed follow session. Worryingly, Raleigh notched simply 12 homers. Seems, that is full-on household affair for the Raleighs, as Cal’s 15-year-old brother, Todd Jr., is suiting up tonight as his Derby catcher.

Matt Olson

Olson tagged in on Friday as a alternative for teammate Ronald Acuña Jr. He’s obtained Derby expertise. He’s obtained residence subject benefit. The truth is, as an Atlanta native, he was even within the stands for the 2000 Derby at Turner Area, and the group will undoubtedly be going loopy for him tonight. And though he doesn’t possess the top-of-the-scale uncooked energy of Cruz, Wooden, or Caminero, Olson remains to be a pure slugger with energy to spare. His common fly ball travels 342 toes, second solely to Wooden. He led the majors with 54 homers in 2023, and he leads the sphere with 276 profession residence runs. He’s a lefty in his lefty-friendly residence park who has specialised in hitting residence runs for years. In the event you’re on the lookout for a participant with a observe report for sending the ball out of the ballpark, and significantly this ballpark, Olson is your man. He’s not the sexiest choose within the subject, however Olson is a critical darkish horse contender right here.

Who’s Going to Win?

I checked in with Jay Jaffe, who wrote this preview in earlier years and who did an awesome job of selecting winners. Jay selected Buxton. It’s an identical transfer to the one I made once I picked Bobby Witt Jr. final 12 months; Jay picked the super-athlete who can do something on a baseball subject. For that cause, I’m entering into the wrong way and taking Wooden. He’s a high-risk choose. He positively doesn’t have a great swing for the Derby, and he’s struggled of late, with a .103 batting common in his eight video games since asserting that he’d take part. However as we’ve seen all 12 months, he doesn’t must do all the things completely to hit a house run. He’s obtained a great eye and light-tower energy, which ought to assist him out within the bonus spherical. If he will get in a groove, be careful.