The 2025 Alternative-Degree Killers: Third Base

At this time we flip our consideration to some chilly performances on the sizzling nook. Whereas nonetheless specializing in groups that meet the unfastened definition of a contender (a .500 report or Playoff Odds of roughly 10%) and which have gotten about 0.6 WAR or much less out of a place up to now (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I’ve additionally included our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an extra perspective. Which will recommend that a few of these groups will clear the bar by a big margin, besides, I’ve included them right here as a result of their efficiency at that spot up to now is price a glance.

Cubs

The Cubs started the season with 2023 first-round choose Matt Shaw — no. 13 on our preseason High 100 Prospects listing as a 55-FV prospect — as their starter at third base, however he struggled out of the gate, hitting simply .172/.294/.241 (62 wRC+) from Opening Day via April 14 earlier than being optioned to Triple-A Iowa. Jon Berti did the majority of the work in his absence, with Gage Workman, Vidal Bruján, Nicky Lopez and even Justin Turner recognizing there as properly earlier than Shaw was recalled on Might 19. The 23-year-old rookie obtained sizzling upon returning, however struggled in June earlier than beginning July in a 1-for-27 funk; he’s now batting simply .198/.276/.280 (61 wRC+) with two homers, 11 steals, and 0.0 WAR. Whereas he’s underperformed relative to his anticipated stats (together with a .350 xSLG), his 83.3-mph common exit velocity locations him within the first percentile, and his 26.8% hard-hit price within the fifth. Notably, he rode the pine within the days main as much as the All-Star break, making one begin and two late-inning appearances over the Cubs’ final 5 video games. Supervisor Craig Counsell referred to as Shaw’s absence from the lineup “just a bit breather right here.”

The Cubs nonetheless consider Shaw is the long-term resolution at third base, however he’s at present the weakest hyperlink within the lineup of a staff whose NL Central lead has dwindled to 1 recreation forward of the Brewers. An improve would make sense, notably on condition that neither Berti (.219/.272/.240, 48 wRC+) nor Bruján (.184/.205/.263, 28 wRC+) has been any higher than Shaw; each Workman and Lopez are actually in different organizations, and the 40-year-old Turner hasn’t performed even 60 innings in a season at third since 2022. Pending free agent Eugenio Suárez could be the highest third baseman out there if the Diamondbacks determine to place him available on the market, and could be a greater match for the Cubs contemplating that alternate options such because the Rockies’ Ryan McMahon and the Pirates’ Ke’Bryan Hayes have a number of years of membership management remaining. If the Cubs prioritize protection, the Orioles’ Ramón Urías is a powerful defender who would price loads much less.

Reds

The December 2023 addition of free agent Jeimer Candelario on a three-year, $45 million deal made little sense given the Reds’ glut of infielders, however accidents and Noelvi Marte’s PED suspension cleared a path for him nonetheless. He was awful in 2024 (89 wRC+, -0.3 WAR) then even worse in ’25 (.113/.198/.213, 10 wRC+, -0.7 WAR in 91 plate appearances) earlier than touchdown on the injured listing with a lumbar sprain in late April. As quickly as he was accomplished along with his rehab, he was designated for task after which launched — at roughly the midpoint of his contract. He’s since signed a minor league cope with the Yankees; for what it’s price, he has only a 64 wRC+ in 100 PA at Triple-A up to now, so it’s not just like the Reds are lacking out on a rebound.

Since Candelario’s harm, the majority of the enjoying time at third base has gone to Santiago Espinal, however he’s struggled mightily (.246/.296/.293, 63 wRC+) and has barreled simply two balls; by some means, his 0.9% barrel price remains to be larger than six different gamers with no less than 200 PA. Marte, who after a disastrous 2024 started the season at Triple-A Louisville, was recalled on April 9. Whereas he performed in simply 19 video games earlier than dropping two months to an indirect pressure, he’s hit very properly (.284/.337/.547, 138 wRC+) when out there, although that snazzy batting line accounts for simply 108 PA. If he can preserve anyplace close to that degree of efficiency — or even when he regresses towards his .257 xBA and .464 xSLG — Cincinnati’s issues listed below are solved. Issues are hardly ever so neat, nonetheless, and whereas it’s price maintaining a tally of how properly Futures Recreation participant Sal Stewart — who was ranked ninth with a 40+ FV on the staff’s high prospects listing in Might — fares after being promoted from Double-A Chattanooga to Louisville, the Reds should still have to succeed in outdoors the group to enhance.

Yankees

Areas of want don’t get far more obvious than this. Whereas the Yankees added former All-Stars Cody Bellinger, Max Fried, Paul Goldschmidt, and Devin Williams this previous winter, they skimped when it got here to 3rd base. They opened the season with utilityman Oswaldo Cabrera enjoying there repeatedly, however he hit a meager .243/.322/.308 (83 wRC+) earlier than struggling a season-ending left ankle fracture on Might 12. Oswald Peraza, a former top-40 prospect who backed him up after which briefly took over the spot, hasn’t even managed that degree of offense, hitting .149/.213/.243 (28 wRC+) whereas making 30 of his 43 begins at third base. Prospect Jorbit Vivas (35+ FV) has been equally helpless (.149/.245/.255, 45 wRC+) whereas making six of his 18 begins on the sizzling nook. DJ LeMahieu didn’t even engender sufficient confidence in his bodily situation to return to 3rd base earlier than being launched final week, and Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s newest stint on the place was lower quick resulting from shoulder soreness; LeMahieu’s departure allowed him to return to second.

The Yankees have Lopez and Candelario at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, however neither one is the reply. They’re searching larger recreation. Suárez, McMahon, and Hayes — whose father Charlie Hayes performed third for the Yankees within the Nineteen Nineties, catching a foul ball for the ultimate out of the 1996 World Collection — are all on New York’s radar, as is Nolan Arenado. A deal for the Cardinals third baseman could be difficult by the $50 million-plus in wage he’s nonetheless owed via 2027, to not point out the complete no-trade clause that he’d should waive to ensure that a deal to undergo — and that’s earlier than contemplating that the Cardinals are combating for a playoff spot themselves. Even when Arenado just isn’t an possibility, common supervisor Brian Cashman nearly actually has to seek out an improve.

Twins

We’re 4 positions into this 12 months’s Alternative Degree Killers collection and the Twins have touched ’em all, so to talk. The principle offender right here is Royce Lewis, who started the season on the injured listing with a strained left hamstring, and after being activated in early Might put the ending touches on a 39-plate look hitless streak, then later endured a separate 35-PA streak of futility and one other journey to the IL for a left hamstring pressure. Amid all that, he’s hit simply .216/.281/.302 (64 wRC+) in 153 PA, although since June 3, when he ended his second hitless streak, he’s batted a way more respectable .309/.368/.412 (120 wRC+).

In all chance, the way in which ahead is with Lewis, not solely as a result of he performed at an All-Star degree for a lot of final season, but in addition as a result of there are solely so many spots a staff on the outskirts of a Wild Card race will be anticipated to repair. That mentioned, Brooks Lee has hit a lot better throughout his time at third base (.297/.339/.483, 128 wRC+) than anyplace else; his offensive struggles whereas enjoying second are a giant cause the Twins landed on that listing. Between Lee, Willi Castro, and present St. Paul Saint Jose Miranda, the Twins have alternate options, however the hope is issues received’t come to that.

Brewers

With the departure of Willy Adames through free company, the Brewers selected to maneuver Joey Ortiz from third base to shortstop, which hasn’t gone so properly. (Spoiler alert: Tune in tomorrow.) Milwaukee didn’t hunt down a brand new third baseman, as a substitute leaving the gate with a platoon involving lefty-swinging Oliver Dunn and righty Vinny Capra. That plan lasted about three weeks earlier than Dunn, who hit for only a 17 wRC+ with -0.3 WAR, was optioned to Triple-A Nashville, with Caleb Durbin getting referred to as as much as exchange him. The 25-year-old Durbin, a 5-foot-7, 40-FV prospect acquired from the Yankees (ahem) within the Williams commerce, has hit a good .261/.348/.363 (107 wRC+) — which is to say, he’s been extra productive than Arenado, who’s slugging .388 with a 93 wRC+.

As you would possibly guess, Durbin’s efficiency has been a really contact-centric one, with a 7% stroll price and a 9.2% strikeout price. He’s by some means accomplished this whereas rating within the first percentile in exit velocity (84.8 mph) and within the second percentile in hard-hit price (24.8%), however due to that on-base share and good protection (6 DRS, 1 FRV), he’s produced 1.4 WAR. The Brewers’ total mark right here is simply obscured by all of the destructive contributions from Dunn and Capra, who now toils for the White Sox. Durbin might be higher fitted to a utility function in the long term, so the Brewers may stand pat right here, however the lack of first baseman Rhys Hoskins to a Grade 2 left thumb sprain has magnified their want for an influence bat. Suárez could be a fantastic match, not that there’s been any warmth to recommend it’s a powerful risk.

Phillies

Alec Bohm is not any stranger to these lists, however whereas his .281/.327/.395 (101 wRC+) line is a bit gentle within the energy division, he’s not the issue, having totaled 1.5 WAR, 1.4 of which has come as a 3rd baseman. Edmundo Sosa and Otto Kemp, alternatively, have mixed for -0.8 WAR whereas making 18 begins and mixing to go 11-for-67 with one extra-base hit as third basemen; most of that occurred whereas Bohm was masking first base throughout Bryce Harper’s stint on the injured listing for proper wrist irritation. The Phillies quickly discovered that preserving Bohm at third — the place he’s turn into a median fielder by the metrics, in distinction to his early-career struggles — and placing Kemp at first labored higher. After all, having Harper at first works even higher. Whereas the NL East-leading Phillies have some apparent wants (right here’s one other spoiler alert for you youngsters), depend this as one other scenario that doesn’t require a repair.